Investment Rating - The report has adjusted the investment rating to "Accumulate" [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced significant pressure on demand in Q3, leading to a substantial decline in revenue and profit, with Q3 revenue down 67.24% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is undergoing a marketing transformation, which is expected to yield positive results in the future despite current challenges [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.191 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 56 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 51 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 44.41%, 88.20%, and 89.27% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 197 million yuan, a net loss of 65 million yuan, and a net loss excluding non-recurring items of 66 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 67.24%, 213.67%, and 219.48% respectively [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 11.65 and 42.22 percentage points year-on-year to 64.04% and -32.77% respectively [2]. - The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased by 30.21 and 13.61 percentage points year-on-year to 66.30% and 18.97% respectively [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised to 1.744 billion yuan, 1.946 billion yuan, and 2.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.43 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 172 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 233 million yuan, down from previous estimates of 390 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 550 million yuan [3]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 118.6X, 100.9X, and 87.7X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.14% from 2022 [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 548 million yuan, down 47.77% from 2022 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 0.53 yuan, compared to 1.69 yuan in 2023 [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 1.19 billion yuan, down 44.4% year-on-year, and net profit at 60 million yuan, down 88.2% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 200 million yuan, a decrease of 67.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 60 million yuan [1]. - The company is facing challenges in product sales and cautious channel repayments, with weak demand in the mid-to-high-end product segments [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its strategy to focus on core products and improve market presence, particularly in its home market of Hunan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, down 44.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, down 88.2% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 200 million yuan, down 67.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 60 million yuan [1]. - The company’s white liquor sales volume for the first half of 2024 was 4,418 tons, down 18.8% year-on-year [1]. Product Performance - The company’s product lines showed varied performance, with the "Inner Reference" series sales down 44.4%, while the "Xiangquan" series saw a 36.2% increase [1]. - The average price per ton for white liquor was 224,000 yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 71.8%, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin was 4.7%, down 17.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was negative 200 million yuan, a significant decline compared to the previous year [1]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on its core product lines, particularly the "Jiu Gui" and "Inner Reference" series, and is optimizing its product structure [1]. - Efforts are being made to enhance market presence in Hunan and expand into other provinces with sample market initiatives [1]. - The company is increasing promotional activities and strengthening its online and group purchase channels to boost sales [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 176, 134, and 108 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with total revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, down 44.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 88.2% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 67.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of -65 million yuan, down 213.7% year-on-year. The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to a slowdown in industry sales and cautious attitudes from channels regarding inventory [2][3] - The company is focusing on transforming its marketing model, emphasizing deepening its domestic market and building model markets. The next phase will focus on breakthroughs and in-depth potential exploration, aiming for revenue stabilization as terminal construction and BC linkage results gradually emerge [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2022, total revenue was 4.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.63%. In 2023, revenue dropped to 2.83 billion yuan, down 30.14%. The forecast for 2024 is 1.55 billion yuan, a decline of 45.18%, with projections of 1.69 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.94 billion yuan in 2026, showing a recovery trend [1][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.05 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 17.39%. In 2023, it fell to 547.81 million yuan, down 47.77%, and is expected to drop further to 61.17 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 88.83%. Projections for 2025 and 2026 are 70.77 million yuan and 132.19 million yuan, respectively [1][13] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 1.69 yuan per share, with a forecast of 0.19 yuan in 2024, 0.22 yuan in 2025, and 0.41 yuan in 2026 [1][13] Market and Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a contraction in channels and cautious payment collection. The revenue for Q3 2024 was significantly lower than Q2, attributed to a general pressure on white liquor sales and a slow cash turnover in channels [3][4] - The company is adjusting its product selection and payment collection strategies, with a focus on improving terminal construction and enhancing core market performance. The company aims to stabilize revenue through these adjustments [3][5] Valuation Metrics - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 271 for 2024, 234 for 2025, and 125 for 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in profitability [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under significant pressure, with revenue and profit falling short of expectations. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 1.191 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.41% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, down 88.20% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is undergoing a structural adjustment in its product offerings, with a shift in expense allocation from B-end to C-end, leading to a decline in sales of mid-to-high-end products. This has resulted in a downward trend in product structure and revenue performance [3] - Despite short-term performance challenges, the company is expected to continue its expense reform, aiming for long-term growth. The price increase of its premium products indicates a strengthening brand influence, and the acceleration of sales for its secondary high-end products reflects an improvement in market impact [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 1.191 billion yuan, down 44.41% year-on-year, and net profit was 56 million yuan, down 88.20% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, total revenue was 197 million yuan, a decrease of 67.24% year-on-year, with a net loss of 65 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 71.81%, down 7.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.74%, down 17.60 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 64.04%, down 11.65 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was -32.77%, down 42.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow was under pressure, with net cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2024 at -411 million yuan, compared to 57 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Expense Management - The company has shifted its expense allocation strategy, focusing more on consumer-oriented spending, which has led to a rigid expense structure and high initial investments. This has contributed to the underperformance in profits [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.33 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.60 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.87 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 155, 111, and 85 times for the respective years [4][7]

[Table_StockNameRptType] 酒鬼酒（000799） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests to "continue to pay attention" to the company due to its proactive reforms and potential recovery in sales [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q3 2024, with total revenue of 197 million yuan, down 67.24% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 65 million yuan, down 213.67% year-on-year. This performance was below previous expectations [2][6]. - Despite the challenges in the mid-to-high-end market segment, the company is undergoing a marketing transformation, which has led to a reduction in social inventory pressure and an increase in consumption activities such as bottle openings and banquet numbers. However, cautious payment collection from distributors has caused a mismatch between expense input and revenue, impacting profits [2][6]. - The company is increasing promotional investments, but its profitability remains under pressure, with a gross margin of 64.04%, down 11.65 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio has increased significantly, indicating higher promotional costs [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.191 billion yuan, down 44.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 88.20% year-on-year [6]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 197 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline, and the sales cash collection was 244 million yuan, down 57.91% [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenues of 1.387 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 50.99%, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026 with projected revenues of 1.537 billion yuan and 1.694 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - The net profit projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 59 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 226 million yuan, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in profitability in the following years [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on proactive reforms and channel improvements, which are expected to lead to a gradual recovery in sales of major products. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these developments closely [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, with significant declines in revenue and net profit, indicating that the effects of reforms and cultivation efforts have yet to materialize [4][5]. - The report highlights a 44.4% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the third quarter, with a net profit drop of 88.2%, leading to a loss of 0.6 billion yuan in Q3 [4][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channel value chain and transforming its marketing model to improve sales performance [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.0 billion yuan, down 67.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 0.6 billion yuan [4]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 42.2 percentage points to -32.8%, with a gross margin of 64.0% [5]. - The company is facing challenges due to weak sales during the holiday season and increased fixed costs impacting net profit [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a significant decline in net profit for 2024-2026, with expected decreases of 89.3%, 68%, and 61% respectively [6]. - Revenue is projected to decline by 51.0% in 2024, followed by modest growth of 10.7% and 10.0% in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.18, 0.46, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 285.9, 112.5, and 79.4 [6].

Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 67.24% year-over-year to ¥196,909,961.95, and year-to-date revenue decreased by 44.41% to ¥1,191,058,956.83[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -¥64,532,001.44 for Q3 2024, a decline of 213.67%, and year-to-date net profit was ¥56,487,634.90, down 88.20%[2] - Total operating revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,191,058,956.83, a decrease of 44.4% compared to CNY 2,142,449,940.98 in the same period last year[13] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 56,487,634.90, a significant decline from CNY 478,717,779.35 in Q3 2023, representing an 88.2% decrease[14] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was CNY 56,487,634.90, compared to CNY 478,717,779.35 for the same period last year[15] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2024 were both CNY 0.1738, down from CNY 1.4733 year-over-year[15] Cash Flow and Assets - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -¥411,415,035.55 year-to-date, representing a decline of 817.04%[2] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from CNY 2,361,201,175.92 to CNY 1,341,052,150.70, a decline of approximately 43.2%[10] - Cash inflow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,173,225,469.09, a decrease from CNY 2,057,639,186.77 in the previous year[16] - Net cash outflow from operating activities was CNY -411,415,035.55, compared to a net inflow of CNY 57,376,841.90 in the same period last year[16] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was CNY 1,341,050,350.70, down from CNY 2,485,522,468.02 year-over-year[17] - Total current assets decreased from CNY 4,259,787,342.63 to CNY 3,308,157,333.15, a reduction of approximately 22.3%[10] - The total assets at the end of Q3 2024 were ¥5,046,458,158.91, a decrease of 10.99% compared to the end of the previous year[2] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 143,506[9] - The company has a major shareholder, Zhonghuang Co., Ltd., holding 31.00% of shares[9] - The second-largest shareholder, China Bank Co., Ltd. - CMB Index Fund, holds 4.93% of shares[9] - There are no changes reported in the top 10 shareholders due to securities lending or borrowing activities[10] Inventory and Liabilities - Inventory increased from CNY 1,556,888,541.70 to CNY 1,670,485,190.41, reflecting a growth of about 7.5%[10] - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 1,035,638,811.21 in Q3 2024 from CNY 1,390,579,468.32 in the same period last year, a reduction of 25.5%[12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a marketing model transformation, which has led to a significant decline in performance due to weak demand in the liquor industry and cautious repayment willingness from distributors[5] - The company plans to optimize the product value chain and stabilize product prices to boost distributor confidence amid declining industry demand[7] - The focus will be on developing core terminals and enhancing consumer engagement through the BC linkage sales model to drive terminal sales[7] - The company aims to strengthen its presence in the Hunan market and establish model markets outside the province to create localized advantages[8] - The strategy includes concentrating on key products like the Neican Jiachen version and Jiugui Hongtan to refine the product portfolio and enhance brand strength[8] - The company is enhancing its internet and special channel group purchasing capabilities to expand its consumer base and drive sales growth[8] Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased to CNY 16,128,214.07 in Q3 2024, up from CNY 12,677,380.91 in Q3 2023, indicating a growth of 27.5%[13] Accounts Receivable and Prepayments - The company reported accounts receivable of CNY 30,625,047.09, down from CNY 37,538,668.53, a decrease of about 18.4%[10] - The company’s prepayments increased significantly from CNY 13,483,931.04 to CNY 29,595,013.55, an increase of approximately 119.5%[10]

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2024-25 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于参加湖南辖区 2024 年度投资者网上集体接待日 活动的公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、 完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）将参加由湖南证监局、湖南省上市公司协会与深圳市 全景网络有限公司联合举办的"湖南辖区 2024 年度投资者网上集体 接待日"活动，现将相关事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演" 网站（https://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下 载全景路演 APP,参与本次互动交流，活动时间为 2024 年 10 月 10 日 （星期四）15:30-17:00。届时公司董事会秘书、证券事务代表将在 线就公司业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况等投资者关心的问题 与投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与！ 特此公告！ 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 9 月 28 日 ...

1 证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 酒鬼酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-9-20 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...