广州：半数以上产品价格回调，即时零售平台售价波动相对明显 中秋国庆双节过后，白酒产品的市场零售价格开始整体回调。而近期，一年一度的双十一大促活动 已经开启，各大线上平台推动满减、补贴等优惠活动，这又使得白酒均价的上调幅度有限，部分产品的 均价还在下滑。 在上一期的基础上，本期广州市场有超半数的统计样本产品市场零售均价出现上涨，包括第八代五 粮液、国窖1573、君品习酒、红西凤、洋河梦之蓝M6+等高端及中高端产品，均价上涨的幅度几元到几 十元不等。 白酒双十一迎来"冷静期"？线上大促线下观望 价格温和博弈 【中国白酒网】一年一度的双十一大促活动已经开启，各大电商平台如火如荼促销，白酒行业却迎 来"冷静期"。 南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组发布的第五十三期《湾区酒价》数据显示，大湾区四城白酒价 格呈现分化态势：线上平台以补贴拉低高端酒价格，线下渠道仍以观望为主。产品方面，高端白酒在这 一波大促中意外地"保持定力"，价格波动不明显；部分中高端产品有降价趋势但幅度不大。 这或许与双十一前期的折扣力度不明显相关，但在理性消费与库存压力的博弈中，酒价波动折射出 行业渠道变革与行业调整的深化。 其中，上涨幅度较明显的产品 ...

招商证券指出，Q3白酒动销环比改善但报表延续出清，政商务需求承压，宴席与大众消费平稳。大众 品表现分化，零食/饮料/宠物/保健品景气度较好，传统消费品如乳制品/调味品/啤酒需求平淡，餐饮9月 后环比复苏。成本端原材料延续下降但降幅收窄，包材价格环比提升。 消息面上，泸州老窖、洋河股份等白酒龙头再出新品。10月22日晚19：30，泸州老窖·国窖1573·2026农 历丙午马年礼酒双品在抖音"泸州老窖定制酒官方旗舰店"上市首发。此外，近日，南京秋糖期间，洋 河"吉庆使者"洋河国宾首次亮相。 一键配置吃喝板块核心资产，重点关注食品ETF（515710）。根据中证指数公司统计，食品ETF （515710）跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，约6成仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙头股，近4成仓位 兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头股，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利股份、海天味业 等。场外投资者亦可通过食品ETF联接基金（A类012548/C类012549）对吃喝板块核心资产进行布局。 吃喝板块今日（10月24日）逆市下跌，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）开盘短暂于水面附 近震荡后持续下行，截至收盘，场内 ...

| | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 * | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九转 图线 工具 @ 2 > | | | 食品ETF O | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.63 | | | | | 515710(食品ETF) 10:33 价 0.615 蒸跌 -0.005(-0.81%) 均价 0.618 版交量 6994 IOPV 0.6 | | | | | O. The | 0.615 | | -0.005 -0.81% | | 0.622 | | | | | | | | | | 0.45% | | SSE CNY 10:33:27 交易中 | 湯 2 7 . . . | | | | | | | | | | | | | 净值走势 | 华富中证细分食品饮料产业主题 | | | | | super programs | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 熨化 | 36,57% 经验 | 20948 ...

上市企业：贵州茅台（600519）,五粮液（000858）,洋河股份（002304）,泸州老窖（000568）,山西汾酒 （600809）,古井贡酒（000596）,水井坊（600779）,舍得酒业（600702）,酒鬼酒（000799）,老白干酒 （600559） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国白酒行业市场现状分析及投资前景规划报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年4月中国白酒(折65度，商品量)产量为28.1万千升，同比下降13.8%； 2025年1-4月中国白酒(折65度，商品量)累计产量为130.8万千升，累计下降7.8%。 2020-2025年1-4月中国白酒(折65度，商品量)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [9] Core Views - The economic landscape continues to show resilience, with GDP growth in the first three quarters reaching 101.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Despite a marginal decline in growth rate to 4.8% in Q3, the overall economic stability is supported by new productive forces and effective macro policies [4] - Retail sales growth has slowed down, with total retail sales from January to September at 36.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In September alone, retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by only 3.0% [5] - The beverage sector is performing strongly, with a focus on new consumption opportunities driven by retail channel transformations. Key companies to watch include Huashang Auntie, Tea Baidao, and others [6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - GDP growth has shown resilience despite external challenges, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters [4] - The Q3 GDP growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to external tariff policy changes and transitional pains in various industries [4] Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales for the first nine months reached 36.59 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year. September's retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a slowdown to 3.0% growth [5] - The decline in growth is linked to the reduced impact of the "old-for-new" policy and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong recovery expectations in the consumer goods sector, including Weilai Delicious, Ximai Foods, and Youyou Foods [6] - The beverage sector is noted for its robust performance, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and others, as well as the impact of new birth policies on dairy demand, highlighting companies such as Yili and Mengniu [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 1.79% on October 17, with the leading stock, Jiu Gui Jiu, falling significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The liquor sector stocks showed varied performance, with notable declines in several key companies: - Zhi Si Cha (000799) closed at 62.22, down 3.20% with a trading volume of 106,600 shares and a transaction value of 671 million yuan - ST Yan Shi (600696) closed at 5.50, down 2.65% with a trading volume of 37,600 shares and a transaction value of 2.08 million yuan - She De Jiu Ye (600702) closed at 61.87, down 2.57% with a trading volume of 74,200 shares and a transaction value of 463 million yuan - Huang Tai Jiu Ye (000995) closed at 13.47, down 2.46% with a trading volume of 38,300 shares and a transaction value of 5.22 million yuan - Gu Li Gong Jiu (000596) closed at 155.80, down 2.02% with a trading volume of 22,100 shares and a transaction value of 348 million yuan - Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1455.00, down 2.01% with a trading volume of 38,100 shares and a transaction value of 5.595 billion yuan - Shui Jing Fang (600779) closed at 42.10, down 1.98% with a trading volume of 20,700 shares and a transaction value of 87.98 million yuan - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu (661009) closed at 10.20, down 1.92% with a trading volume of 66,900 shares and a transaction value of 68.80 million yuan - Yi Li Te (600197) closed at 15.22, down 1.81% with a trading volume of 44,500 shares and a transaction value of 68.22 million yuan - Lao Bai Gan Jiu (600559) closed at 16.89, down 1.75% with a trading volume of 116,000 shares and a transaction value of 197 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - On the same day, the liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.173 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 488.5 million yuan and speculative funds saw a net inflow of 688 million yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [56]. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is marginally improving, with a focus on the performance feedback from the third-quarter reports. The liquor sector is under pressure due to ongoing constraints in consumption scenarios, particularly in government and business banquets, leading to a subdued performance in the second quarter. The market is currently engaged in left-side speculation regarding a reversal of industry difficulties, while long-term assessments will depend on economic recovery and distributor confidence [6][51]. - The food and beverage industry index rose by 2.26% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.74 percentage points during the same period [13][14]. - Approximately 69% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Kweichow Moutai (+21.10%) and Baba Food (+11.73%) [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.26% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, ranking seventh among Shenwan's primary industry sectors [13]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector showing the highest increase at 5.69%, while the soft drink sector had the largest decline at -1.17% [14]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai remained stable at 1760 RMB/bottle, while the prices of Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 increased by 10 RMB/bottle to 850 RMB/bottle [24]. - **Condiment Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased, with soybean meal at 3010 RMB/ton and white sugar at 5790 RMB/ton [27]. - **Beer Sector**: The average price of barley was 2232.50 RMB/ton, with glass prices at 15.70 RMB/square meter [32]. - **Dairy Sector**: The average price of fresh milk remained unchanged at 3.04 RMB/kg [39]. - **Meat Products Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 18.02 RMB/kg, down 1.29 RMB/kg from the previous month [41]. Important News - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu Province's liquor production decreased by 17.6% [44]. - The national liquor price index showed a slight decline in September, with a total index of 99.63, down 0.37% [45]. - Sales of liquor on Douyin increased by 58% month-on-month in September [46]. Company Announcements - **Wuliangye**: Announced the completion of a stock buyback plan, acquiring 627.33 million shares [49]. - **Qiaqia Food**: Reported progress on its share repurchase plan, buying back 105.52 million shares [50]. Industry Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and other regional liquors like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guojiao [51][52].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of JiuGuiJiu has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.02% and a year-to-date increase of 14.47%, indicating volatility in its market performance [1] Company Overview - JiuGuiJiu Co., Ltd. is located in Jishou City, Hunan Province, and was established on July 14, 1997, with its stock listed on July 18, 1997. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of fragrant liquor series products [1] - The main revenue composition includes: JiuGui series 51.60%, other series 22.38%, NeiCan series 19.77%, XiangQuan series 5.61%, and others 0.64% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, JiuGuiJiu reported operating revenue of 561 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.95 million yuan, down 92.60% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, JiuGuiJiu has distributed a total of 2.151 billion yuan in dividends, with 942 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for JiuGuiJiu was 136,000, a decrease of 4.40% from the previous period, with an average of 2,388 circulating shares per person, an increase of 4.61% [2] - The top circulating shareholders include: - China Securities Index White Wine Index A (161725) holding 15.9475 million shares, unchanged from the previous period - Wine ETF (512690) holding 4.7062 million shares, an increase of 568,200 shares - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 1.6319 million shares, a decrease of 412,400 shares [3]

Market Overview - On October 14, A-shares collectively retreated, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index dropping approximately 4%, indicating a shift in market style [1] - The Hang Seng Index also fell significantly, with a nearly 2% decline, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping close to 4% [1] - Major indices opened higher but experienced volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.54% to 12895.11 points at the close [1] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector faced a significant pullback, with stocks like Yandong Micro and Chipone falling over 10%, and Huahong Semiconductor dropping more than 9% [1][10] - AI-related stocks also declined, with Newyeason and Zhongji Xuchuang dropping over 8% [1][10] Insurance and Banking Sectors - The insurance sector saw a strong rally, with New China Life Insurance rising over 5% and China Pacific Insurance increasing by more than 3% [4] - The banking sector also performed well, with Chongqing Bank up nearly 7% and Agricultural Bank of China rising over 3% [4][5] - New China Life Insurance reported a projected net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [4] Resource Stocks - Resource stocks, including coal, gas, and oil, collectively rose, with Baotailong achieving three consecutive trading limits [1] - The photovoltaic industry saw a resurgence, with Longi Green Energy and JA Solar reaching trading limits during the session [1] Alcohol Sector - The alcohol sector rebounded, with stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu rising over 2% [7] - The overall consumption environment for the liquor industry has shown signs of improvement, with inventory accumulation marginally easing [8] Investment Insights - Institutions suggest that the insurance sector currently presents significant allocation value due to policy benefits and asset improvements [5] - The banking sector is favored by insurance funds due to its high dividend characteristics, with expectations for increased holdings in bank stocks [4][5] - The alcohol sector is anticipated to experience a valuation shift and recovery as the market adjusts to external disturbances and the importance of domestic demand increases [8]