Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by a decline in both production and sales, a slowdown in terminal sales, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue decline has increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant revenue drops for two consecutive years [1] Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai leads the industry with a gross margin of 91.93%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao at 87.54% and Shui Jing Fang at 82.76%. Shui Jing Fang's high gross margin is attributed to the elimination of low-end products, focusing on high-end liquor [2] - The lowest gross margins are reported by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture, at 36.03% and 34.94% respectively. Jin Zhong Zi Jiu's gross margin has decreased by 5.38 percentage points, while Shun Xin Agriculture's margin increased by 4.23 percentage points, mainly due to its slaughtering business [2] Gross Margin Trends - In 2024, the median gross margin for 19 liquor companies is 73.16%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous year. 12 companies, accounting for 63%, reported a decline in gross margins, with She De Jiu Ye experiencing the most significant drop of nearly 9 percentage points [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu also saw a gross margin decline of nearly 7 percentage points, indicating that mid-range liquor brands are facing the most severe impacts in this industry adjustment [3] Net Profit Margin Analysis - Guizhou Moutai boasts a net profit margin of 52.27%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye at 43.27% and 37.22% respectively, although all three companies experienced slight declines in net profit margins compared to the previous year [4] - The lowest net profit margins are found in Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, Tian You De Jiu, and She De Jiu Ye, all below 10%. The most significant declines in net profit margins were seen in She De Jiu Ye and Jiu Gui Jiu [5] Financial Summary - The financial performance of major liquor companies shows a trend of declining margins, with notable companies like Jiu Gui Jiu reporting a net profit margin as low as 0.88% [4][5] - The financial data indicates that while some companies have managed to improve their net profit margins, the overall trend in the industry is one of contraction and increased pressure on mid-range and low-end products [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for various products [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing dual declines in production and sales, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth for liquor companies in 2024 [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for 19 listed liquor companies reached 45.87 billion yuan in the previous year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, which outpaced revenue growth [2] - The median sales expense ratio rose from 16.26% to 19.1%, indicating a growing burden on companies [2] - Notably, Wu Liang Ye had the highest sales expenses at 10.692 billion yuan, followed by Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] Group 3: Management Expenses - The total management expenses for listed liquor companies amounted to 22.85 billion yuan, slightly up from 22.66 billion yuan the previous year, with a median management expense ratio of 7.27% [3] - Eleven companies reported an increase in management expenses, while eight companies saw a decline [3] - Companies like Shanxi Fen Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Tian You De Jiu experienced management expense growth exceeding 10% [3] Group 4: Expense Ratios - Jiu Gui Jiu had the highest sales expense ratio at 42.94%, followed by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu at 31.84% and Gu Qing Gong Jiu at 26.22% [4] - Kweichow Moutai had the lowest sales expense ratio at 3.24%, indicating efficient cost management [4] - The management expense ratios for Tian You De Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu exceeded 10%, while companies like Wu Liang Ye and Kweichow Moutai maintained lower ratios [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for many products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with inventory issues becoming prominent and leading major companies to halt shipments to stabilize pricing [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines has increased from 2 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, indicating a growing divide between leading and smaller enterprises [2] Group 2: Revenue Performance - In 2024, 19 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.67% compared to 2023, but with a notable slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The median revenue growth rate for these companies dropped to 3.69% in 2024 from 18.04% in the previous year [2] - The top three companies with the highest revenue growth rates are Jinhuijiu (18.59%), Gujinggongjiu (16.41%), and Guizhou Moutai (15.66%) [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai generated revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 39.4% of the total revenue of listed liquor companies, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points [2] - Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.88 billion yuan, causing it to drop out of the 30 billion yuan club [4] - Jiugui Jiu's revenue declined nearly 50% in 2024 after a 30% drop in 2023, highlighting severe channel issues [4] Group 4: Revenue Rankings - The revenue rankings for 2024 show Guizhou Moutai leading with 174.14 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye with 89.18 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu with 36.01 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiugui Jiu and Jinzongzi Jiu are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Jiugui Jiu's revenue dropping to 1.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 酒鬼酒（000799） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：内调外养， 强基树本 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,222 | 1,336 | 1,516 | | 同比（%） | (30.14) | (49.70) | (14.14) | 9.35 | 13.42 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 547.81 | 12.49 | 65.55 | 109.05 | 152.44 | | 同比（%） | (47.77) | (97.72) | 424.66 | 66.37 | 39.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.69 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 0.47 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 25.45 | 1,115.76 | 212.66 | 127.83 | 91.44 | [Tab ...

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,222 | 1,336 | 1,516 | | 同比（%） | (30.14) | (49.70) | (14.14) | 9.35 | 13.42 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 547.81 | 12.49 | 65.55 | 109.05 | 152.44 | | 同比（%） | (47.77) | (97.72) | 424.66 | 66.37 | 39.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.69 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 0.47 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 25.45 | 1,115.76 | 212.66 | 127.83 | 91.44 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 25Q1 营收下行探底，毛销差同比趋稳。1）收入端：25Q1 营收同比- ...

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 根据年报以及一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率，上调费用率。 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.53、0.62、0.96 元（原预测为 25-26 年 2.13、2.58 元）。考虑到公司现金流充足，我们采用 FCFF 估值法，权益价值为 149 亿元，对 应目标价 45.89 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | ...

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | 同比增长 (%) | -48.9% | -97.7% | 990.2% | 22.9% | 61.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 548 | 12 | 171 | 203 | 312 | | 同比增长 (%) | -47.8% | -97.7% | 1272.7% | 18.1% | 54.0% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.69 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a challenging market environment and weak sales performance across key product lines [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, down 49.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10 million yuan, down 97.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 230 million yuan, a decrease of 66.2%, with a net profit of -40 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 163.7% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 340 million yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year, and net profit was 30 million yuan, down 56.8% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 71.4%, a decrease of 7.0 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 0.9%, down 18.5 percentage points [2]. - The company’s expense ratio for the year was 48.9%, an increase of 13.9 percentage points, with specific increases in management, sales, and R&D expenses [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to focus on product structure optimization and deep market operations in 2025, aiming to enhance operational efficiency in core markets [3]. - A "2+2+2" strategic product system will be established, with plans to eliminate 50% of inefficient SKUs and optimize price distribution [3]. - Initial signs of improvement are noted with a 95% year-on-year increase in sales indicators, suggesting that reforms are beginning to take effect [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted revenue and gross margin forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while increasing expense ratio expectations [3]. - Projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.53, 0.62, and 0.96 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [3]. - The company maintains a target equity value of 14.9 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 45.89 yuan, with a buy rating [3].