Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.93% on September 30, with Jiu Gui Jiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Liquor Stocks Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Guizhou Moutai (000799) closed at 62.31, down 3.78% with a trading volume of 165,700 shares and a turnover of 10.45 million [2] - Yanghe Brewery (002304) closed at 67.94, down 1.28% with a trading volume of 40,200 shares and a turnover of 27.4 million [2] - Wuliangye (000858) closed at 121.48, down 0.36% with a trading volume of 154,600 shares and a turnover of 1.876 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.486 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 735 million [2][3] - The capital flow for specific stocks indicates: - Tianyoude Liquor (002646) had a net inflow of 1.3862 million from retail investors, but a net outflow of 3.0997 million from institutional investors [3] - ST Yanshi (600696) experienced a net outflow of 2.6048 million from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 3.3993 million from retail investors [3] Summary of Stock Movements - The following stocks had significant movements: - Jiu Gui Jiu (600779) saw a net outflow of 14.3357 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.7454 million [3] - Kuaizi Liquor (603589) had a net outflow of 15.3738 million from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 13.0211 million from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 561 million yuan and net profit at 9 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 43.54% and 92.60% respectively [1] - The company is facing ongoing pressure from mid-range liquor channel reforms, but there is an expectation for a turning point with the launch of new products in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company has initiated a marketing transformation and launched a "mine-sweeping" campaign to refine its channel management and strengthen its core market [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's liquor business revenue was 558 million yuan, down 43.65% year-on-year, with total sales volume decreasing by 34.25% to 2,905 tons [1] - The gross margin for the liquor business was 68.73%, a decrease of 4.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased significantly [2] - The company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 1.19 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, and net profits of 90 million yuan, 140 million yuan, and 180 million yuan respectively [3] Regional Revenue Contribution - Revenue contributions from different regions showed significant declines, with North China, East China, and South China experiencing year-on-year decreases of 39.62%, 45.69%, and 41.22% respectively [2] - The company reported a notable increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 156.07% year-on-year [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 227.33 [4] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 21.04 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 324.93 million shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3846.33 points, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2244.21 points, down 0.19%, with the stock of JiuGuiJiu leading the decline at 1.87% [1] - Major liquor companies saw the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Kweichow Moutai: 1434.79 CNY, down 0.29% - Wuliangye: 120.29 CNY, down 1.01% - Shanxi Fenjiu: 189.82 CNY, down 1.34% - Luzhou Laojiao: 127.04 CNY, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery: 67.94 CNY, down 0.60% [1] Research Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical bottoming process in three phases: supply clearance, supply-demand rebalancing, and demand improvement [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports may signal the first turning point in supply and demand, with expectations of "accelerated pressure relief in reports and marginal demand improvement," marking a potential first layout opportunity for the sector [1] - The focus for the next year will be on continuously sensing forward-looking signals and gradually confirming a positive cycle [1]

格隆汇9月26日｜浙商证券研报指出，酒鬼酒上半年归母净利润0.09亿元（同比-92.60%），25Q2归母净 利润-0.23亿元（同比-147.77%）。公司完善产品体系+推进核心终端建设，联合胖东来开发爆款产品酒 鬼酒·自由爱，当前重点关注该产品的销售情况，以及公司依托该产品在河南及湖南省内的势能提升表 现，期待需求改善下的业绩兑现。考虑到当前内参、酒鬼销售依旧承压，渠道库存消化下报表端表现弱 于动销，调整盈利预测。考虑到政策催化下，白酒需求有望恢复，公司具备高弹性，维持"买入"评级。 ...

我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程，即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选 择。近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增 长。具体到酒水领域，酒类即时零售最早发源于1919、酒小二等垂类平台，2015年前后加速，形成垂 类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型4类渠道模式；与此同时酒企加大布局与合作，酒类即时零售渗透 率显著提升。 酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催 化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。回顾历史，白酒周期更替通常伴随渠道变革，当前行业深度 调整，较弱的价格和动销、较高的库存冲击线下传统渠道利润和现金流，而线上渠道仍较为景气，拥抱 即时零售不失为一种应变方式。据美团闪购测算2027年我国酒类即时零售市场规模有望达1000亿元、复 合增速有望接近中双位数，白酒、啤酒等核心品类有望受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 即时零售：大盘景气，酒类积极参与 一是消费习惯改变，消费者愈发追求便捷，且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需 求，压缩流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing a significant downturn characterized by declining prices, increased inventory, and shifting consumer preferences, indicating a deep adjustment phase rather than a temporary fluctuation [4][15][22]. Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is facing a dual decline in both volume and price, with a reported production volume of 191.59 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [5]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, where actual market prices fall below manufacturer guidance, particularly affecting the 800-1500 yuan price range [5]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in sales [11]. Company Performance - Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing signs of slowing growth, with Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 set at 9%, the lowest since 2016 [17]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% [17]. - Liquor companies are increasingly resorting to price cuts to manage high inventory levels, creating a downward pressure on prices [12]. Consumer Trends - The primary consumer demographic for baijiu is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers (born after 1995) showing diverse preferences for alcoholic beverages, including wine and craft beer [24]. - Health consciousness among younger consumers is changing drinking habits, leading to a decline in traditional drinking culture [25]. - The rise of new sales channels, such as e-commerce and community group buying, is disrupting traditional distribution models and further compressing profit margins for liquor companies [25]. Market Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are emerging structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the lower price segments (100-300 yuan) where demand is shifting [26]. - The focus on family and friend gatherings as primary consumption scenarios is creating new opportunities for products that cater to these social settings [33]. - Companies that can adapt to these changes by enhancing their product offerings and marketing strategies are likely to survive and thrive in the long term [26].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a significant decline of 1.43% at the close, and individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Shede Liquor dropping over 3% [1][3] - Despite the recent downturn, the Food ETF has seen net inflows of 69.18 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating continued investor interest [3][4] - The white liquor sector is under demand pressure, but there are signs of improvement in sales performance as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][5] Group 2 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.74, which is in the 7.06% percentile of the last decade, indicating a good time for long-term investment [4][5] - The government’s advocacy for reducing competition is expected to stabilize prices and support high-quality development, which may lead to a recovery in the liquor sector [5][6] - The white liquor sector is entering a peak season, with signs of improved sales and inventory reduction, suggesting that the bottoming out of the sector may present investment opportunities [6][7]