行业动态 1.1-6月烟酒收入同比增长5.5% 6月社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%；餐饮收入4708亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中烟酒类1-6月收入3316亿元，同比增长5.5%；6月份收入为516 亿元，同比下降0.7%。（国家统计局） 2.6月酒饮茶制造业增加值同比增长3.4% 6月，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）；1-6月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。其中，酒、饮料 和精制茶制造业6月增加值同比增长3.4%，1-6月增加值同比增长4.7%。（国家统计局） 3.4项行业标准正式发布 近日，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 8146-2025《发酵型米酒》、QB/T 5476.6-2025《果酒第6部分：荔枝酒》、QB/T 5476.8-2025《果酒 第8部分：石榴酒》3项行业标准，以及由全国食品工业标准化技术委员会工业发酵分技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 4577-2025《甜酒曲》行业标准正式发 布，实施日期均为2026年2月1日。 此外，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会归口的20252734-T-607《山葡萄酒质量 ...

酒鬼酒 自1997年7月18日上市至今，已迎来28周年。从上市首日收盘价为30.49元、市值56.41亿元，到如今市值达到158.50 亿元，酒鬼酒的成长不仅仅是 白酒 行业发展的缩影，更是传统酒企在市场变迁中的起伏写照，但从最近几年公司经营表现 来看，业绩出现明显下滑。 营收角度分析，酒鬼酒2020年实现营收18.26亿元，2024年达到14.23亿元。营收在经历2021年和2022年的快速增长后，近两 年出现大幅下滑。 利润角度分析，2020年酒鬼酒实现归母净利润4.92亿元，2024年0.12亿元。盈利能力在2021年和2022年达到高点后，近两年 急剧恶化。 从上市首日至今，酒鬼酒的市值实现了1.81倍的增长。2021年9月27日，酒鬼酒的市值巅峰达到899.70亿元，股价也顺应升 至276.89元。而至7月17日收盘，酒鬼酒的股价为48.78元，市值为158.50亿元，相比峰值时期市值减少741.20亿元，市值蒸 发了82.38%。 酒鬼酒的主营业务包括生产、销售酒鬼酒系列白酒和湘泉系列白酒。其核心产品主要分为酒鬼系列和其他系列等，从产品 收入结构来看，酒鬼系列占比最高，达到58.66%，其次是其他 ...

今年，如五粮液（000858.SZ）、泸州老窖（000568.SZ）、酒鬼酒（000799.SZ）等多家白酒企业在年度股东大会上都谈到了白酒低度化的动向。近日， 洋河股份（002304.SZ）亦在投资者互动平台上回复称，公司具备丰富的低度酒储备，将顺应年轻化和低度化趋势，积极开展产品布局与消费者引导工 作。由此可见，低度白酒将成为头部酒企争相进入的新高地。 2025年，白酒行业仍面临缩量竞争、价盘向下、库存压力加大等难题，头部酒企正相继躬身入局低度酒赛道，以此寻找增量市场 《中国科技投资》何梓嫣 当下，白酒行业的深度调整仍在持续，低度酒或将成为周期内拉动酒企业绩增长的重要力量。尽管各大酒企纷纷押注低度酒赛道，但市场对白酒度数不断 下探，过低度数的酒可否归类为白酒范畴仍存在争议。而对于性价比优势不突出的低度酒而言，其市场竞争力如何、能否站稳脚跟、能否带领酒企走出弱 势行情，市场对此持保留态度。 酒企相继向低度酒要增量 近期，多家白酒企业密集释放出布局低度产品的信号。 6月20日，五粮液在2024年度股东大会上宣布，时隔20年，计划重启29度白酒产品，目前已调制出三种不同口味的样品并向市场展开调研，预计将在今年9 ...

经济导报记者 刘勇 在沉寂了近三十年后，低度白酒毫无预兆地再度火了起来。 经济导报记者统计发现，近期，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖、洋河股份、山西汾酒、酒鬼酒等头部知名酒企纷纷布局低度白酒赛道。 其中，五粮液宣布，将于9月推出中高端29度新品"一见倾心"，洋河股份也将在8、9月份集中上市果酒、露酒和低度潮饮。泸州老窖股份有限公司在股东 大会上宣布，28度国窖1573已经研发成功，将适时投放市场，同期还将推出16度、6度等超低度酒类饮品。 受访的业内人士表示，近年来，低度白酒的市场占比呈现快速攀升态势。2022年，低度白酒产量占比约15%，2024年已升至25%以上，部分酒企的低度产 品在区域市场占比甚至超过50%。由此，白酒年轻化愈发成为白酒产业可持续发展的关键挑战。 "酒企布局低度酒市场是为了争抢年轻人赛道，但低度酒并非简单的参数调整，而是消费需求变革下的系统性创新。部分酒企采用'果味+气泡'的公式化配 方，市场同质化严重，容易引发消费者用'脚'投票。"白酒分析师胡宝利分析。 01 争抢布局新赛道 经济导报记者调查时发现，当前，消费者对低度酒的青睐程度逐渐提高。 "近年来，相较于高度白酒，低度酒的动销相对更好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing unprecedented challenges, including plummeting profits, inventory buildup, and price inversion, raising concerns about the potential bursting of the industry's bubble [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Four listed baijiu companies have issued profit warnings, indicating a significant decline in earnings, with net profits expected to drop by 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the previous year [1] - The company Jiu Gui Jiu is projected to report a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering 93% decrease year-on-year, with revenue down 43% to 560 million yuan [1] - Water Well Square, despite a 14.54% increase in sales volume, saw revenue decline by 12.84% to 150 million yuan, and net profit halved by 57% to 10 million yuan [2] Group 2: Inventory and Distribution Challenges - Jiu Gui Jiu's dealer network expanded from 528 to 1,774 from 2019 to 2023, leading to severe inventory issues, with a backlog of 1.67 billion yuan and an average turnover period of 1,300 days, significantly higher than the industry average of 800 days [2] - The overall baijiu industry is facing a massive inventory buildup of 150 billion yuan, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The baijiu market is witnessing a structural shift in consumption, with a sharp decline in demand for high-end products and a growing preference for lower-priced options, particularly in the 300-500 yuan range [5] - Young consumers are increasingly abandoning baijiu, with only 19% of those born in the 1990s and 2000s expressing a preference for it, compared to 52% for beer [5] - The traditional sales channels are struggling, with e-commerce now accounting for 18% of sales, and live streaming driving price transparency [8] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are attempting to adapt to the downturn; for instance, Jiu Gui Jiu launched a new product in collaboration with a popular retailer, but concerns remain about the effectiveness of such strategies [7] - Water Well Square is focusing on banquet promotions and cashback offers, yet continues to face significant losses [7] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai are introducing new products aimed at younger consumers, but the effectiveness of these initiatives is still uncertain [7]

白酒板块午盘后拉升，酒鬼酒（000799）涨超5%，舍得酒业（600702）、天佑德酒（002646）、泸州 老窖（000568）、水井坊（600779）跟涨。 ...

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, leading to significant performance pressure on liquor companies, particularly for JiuGuiJiu, which has reported a substantial decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - JiuGuiJiu expects revenue of approximately 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 43% [1][2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, representing a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 already showed a downward trend, with revenue of 344 million yuan, down 30.34%, and a net profit of 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% [3]. - The first half of 2024 had a revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5%, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with increased pressure on operations, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][4]. - JiuGuiJiu's performance has been declining sharply since 2023, with a reported revenue of approximately 2.83 billion yuan in 2023, down 30.14%, and a net profit of about 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [8]. - In 2024, the company continued to see significant contraction, with revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, down 49.70%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [8]. Company Challenges - JiuGuiJiu's geographical limitations are evident, with 45.11% of revenue coming from Hunan province [9]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with online sales only reaching 186 million yuan compared to 1.229 billion yuan from offline channels in 2024 [9]. - The number of distributors has decreased significantly, from 1,774 at the end of 2023 to 1,336 by the end of 2024, indicating a contraction in sales channels [10].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple liquor companies have reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a collective drop in stock prices for these companies [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Companies such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, and Shui Jing Fang have all issued profit warnings, indicating substantial losses or declines in earnings [1][4]. - Jiu Gui Jiu expects a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 90.1% to 93.4%, with revenue around 560 million yuan, down 43% [5][6]. - Shun Xin Agriculture anticipates a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year [6][7]. - Shui Jing Fang projects a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52%, with revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a 12.84% decline [6][7]. - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu forecasts a net loss of 90 million to 60 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial situation [6][7]. - *ST Yan Shi expects a net loss of 50 million to 75 million yuan, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, liquor stocks collectively fell, with Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Jiu Gui Jiu dropping over 4%, and other companies like Shui Jing Fang and Shun Xin Agriculture also experiencing declines [1][2]. - The overall liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with weak demand in consumption scenarios such as business banquets [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the liquor sector may have limited downside potential and could present mid-term investment opportunities [8]. - Factors supporting this view include sufficient pre-receipts for leading liquor companies, which may limit the extent of profit declines, and an increasing dividend rate that enhances the attractiveness of leading companies' stock yields [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].