《贵州省促进白酒销售若干措施（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。其中提到，支持各级工会组织会员参 加优惠购酒活动，面向全省工会会员提供购酒服务；实施白酒出口战略。加快推动白酒出口，制定相关 支持政策，培育出口企业梯队，利用好我省国际友城和友好地区及侨务资源和市场，发展出口伙伴，拓 展海外销售渠道，支持白酒产品进入海外华人社区、超市、餐馆和中资企业在外职工食堂。 国金证券认为，考虑到此轮周期的动销底逐步探明，表观业绩压力正加速释放，动销反馈环比持续改善 确定性强、当下正值自上而下政策窗口期，叠加年末资金端有配置再平衡的诉求，看好白酒板块的配置 价值，短期批价回落等利空消息的影响已经相对较低，市场相对已从更中长期的视角来看待板块的底部 价值。 配置方向，该机构建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台（600519）、五粮液 （000858）），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒（600809），受益于大众需求强韧性和乡镇消费提质 升级趋势的稳健区域龙头。2）顺周期潜在催化的弹性标的（如泛全国化名酒古井贡酒（000596）、泸 州老窖（000568）），有新产品、新渠道、新范式催化的弹性酒企（如珍酒李渡、舍得酒业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks and sectors within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with Shanxi Fenjiu focusing on national expansion, youth engagement, and internationalization strategies for 2026. The company is optimizing inventory and enhancing market capacity, which is expected to support growth [2]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Nongfu Spring are planning to strengthen their water and tea product lines while introducing new products. The beer segment is diversifying with new flavors to cater to changing consumer preferences [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in consumer staples, with companies like Three Squirrels expanding into a full-category strategy and Mengniu Dairy leading in deep processing innovations [7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 marketing strategy focuses on nationalization, youth engagement, and precise consumer service. The company is targeting key markets and optimizing inventory to enhance growth potential [2]. - The white liquor industry is characterized by bottoming out in sales, clearing financial reports, and low expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for quality asset allocation [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is witnessing the launch of new products like Jin Xing Beer’s winter flavor, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards home and outdoor settings [3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy for 2026 includes strengthening its core water products and expanding its tea offerings, indicating a focus on product diversification and market penetration [3]. Consumer Staples - Three Squirrels is advancing its full-category strategy with the opening of flagship stores, emphasizing community engagement and a wide range of products [7]. - Mengniu Dairy is enhancing its product line with deep processing innovations, which are expected to drive demand and improve the utilization of raw milk [7]. - The frozen food sector is recovering, with companies like Anjuke benefiting from new product launches and channel optimizations, indicating a positive market response [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a long-term investment value in the high-end liquor industry, particularly for leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, despite short-term challenges [4]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor sector is facing short-term challenges but maintains a strong investment logic due to brand moat, high gross margins (85%+), and stable cash flow [4]. - The report highlights the need for liquor companies to balance online and offline strategies, especially in the context of the growing trend of instant retail [4][6]. - The domestic wine industry is experiencing a "bumper harvest but no profit" situation, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances and competition from imported wines [6]. Industry Trends - High-end liquor industry re-evaluation: The core logic remains unchanged despite short-term challenges, with leading companies still showing long-term investment potential [4]. - Instant retail's impact on the liquor industry: Instant retail is rapidly penetrating the market, but the response from manufacturers is mixed due to high costs and low order volumes [4][6]. - The "liquor+" strategy is emerging, integrating liquor with various cultural and lifestyle elements to enhance consumer engagement and brand value [6]. - The domestic wine industry faces significant challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and high production costs, necessitating a shift towards consumer value and brand differentiation [6]. Top Brand News - Young consumers are shifting their purchasing criteria from "value for money" to "emotional value," with brands like Qingdao White Beer successfully tapping into this trend [13]. - Xijiu is promoting a lifestyle approach through its "Xijiu+" strategy, integrating liquor with local culinary experiences to enhance consumer connection [13][26]. - Jian Nan Chun achieved significant sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, showcasing the effectiveness of its cultural branding and e-commerce strategies [24].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 1 | -4.00 | 1875亿 | 6.77 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 1 | -3.65 | 2205亿 | 1.59 | | 600702 | 吴得湿亚 | | -3.58 | 190亿 | -12.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 报 | -2.88 | 175亿 | -1.73 | | 600779 | 水井坊 | 1 | -2.74 | 185亿 | -27.28 | | 000995 | 青导演业 | | -2.36 | 21.31亿 | -27.21 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | | -1.74 | 939亿 | -20.44 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | -1.60 | 453亿 | -17.46 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 1 | -1.55 | 817亿 | -6.93 | | 600199 | 金种子酒 | 1 | -1.33 | 63.67亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of JiuGuiJiu has experienced a decline of 2.01% on December 2, with a current price of 57.08 CNY per share, reflecting a total market capitalization of 18.547 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, JiuGuiJiu reported a revenue of 760 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 36.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -9.8055 million CNY, a decline of 117.36% [2] Stock Market Activity - JiuGuiJiu's stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 3.74%, but has declined by 1.86% over the last five trading days, 7.41% over the last 20 days, and 19.49% over the last 60 days [1] - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent appearance on November 10, where it recorded a net buy of 193 million CNY [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, JiuGuiJiu had 135,600 shareholders, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous period, with an average of 2,395 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 0.32% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include major funds such as the China Securities White Wine Index A and the Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with notable changes in holdings [3]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% on December 1, with *ST Rock leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed mixed performance, with Kuaizi Liquor (603589) rising by 1.14% to close at 30.99, and *ST Rock (600696) falling by 2.85% to close at 4.78 [2][1] - Other notable performers included Yanghe Co. (002304) down 1.06% to 65.50 and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) down 0.27% to 193.78 [2] Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume for Kuaizi Liquor was 33,400 hands with a transaction value of 1.03 billion yuan, while *ST Rock had a trading volume of 64,900 hands with a transaction value of 31.16 million yuan [2][1] - The overall liquor sector saw a net outflow of 969 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 160 million yuan [3] Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed significant outflows from key stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a net outflow of 65.91 million yuan, while retail investors had a net inflow of 7039.03 million yuan into Wuliangye (000858) [3] - The fund flow dynamics indicate a shift in investor sentiment, with retail investors increasingly active in the market [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is entering a year-end summary and planning phase as the year comes to a close [1] - Guizhou's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to consolidate the sauce-flavored liquor industry cluster and optimize product structure and marketing strategies, targeting a production value of 160 billion yuan for the liquor industry in 2024 [2] - The beer tasting committee's selection event attracted 384 participants, highlighting the growing importance of sensory evaluation in the beer industry [3][4] Group 2: Company Developments - Moutai's new leader, Chen Hua, expressed confidence in the liquor industry's potential, emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity and a focus on consumer needs [5][6] - Jiuzi Jiu and Shenzhen Airlines signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance brand collaboration and customer engagement [11] - Qingdao Beer plans to invest up to 10 billion yuan in financial products over the next 12 months, indicating a strategic move to manage its financial resources [10] Group 3: Market Trends - The low-alcohol fruit juice wine brand "Guoli Fang" has achieved double-digit growth for 26 consecutive months, indicating a strong market demand for innovative products [9] - The 2026 Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair is set to be the largest ever, with an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, reflecting the industry's growth and interest [17] - Wuliangye continues its collaboration with CCTV for major events, reinforcing its brand presence in the market [8] Group 4: Product Innovations - Laobai Gan Jiu is launching new products targeting younger consumers, including lemon and dried tangerine peel wines, to adapt to changing market demands [13][14] - Moutai has introduced new products, Moutai Prince Wine (Sauce Color) and Moutai Prince Wine (Black Gold), aimed at enhancing market competitiveness [19][20]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Trends - The CPI in October showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential recovery trend that may continue into the first half of next year [6][10] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.93% year-on-year, with significant improvements in essential consumption categories such as food and beverages [10] - The restaurant sector saw a monthly revenue of 5,199 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [10] Group 2: Frozen and Food Supply Industry - The frozen food and catering industry is witnessing a shift from price wars to product innovation and channel development, with companies focusing on quality and service rather than just price competition [11] - Major players like Anjiyuan and Qianwei Central Kitchen are transitioning their strategies to emphasize product quality and operational efficiency, leading to improved profitability [11][15] - The industry is entering a "hard strength reshuffle period," where companies are expected to enhance their product offerings and service capabilities to maintain competitiveness [11] Group 3: Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a clear differentiation in growth among brands and channels, driven by strategic adjustments and product innovations [33][34] - The emergence of the konjac category as a significant growth driver, with market potential expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, indicates a strong consumer demand for healthy snacks [34][40] - Companies like Yummy Foods and Salted Fish are leveraging their core products and channel strategies to achieve substantial growth, with a focus on high-margin products and efficient cost management [34][42] Group 4: Specific Company Strategies - Anjiyuan is focusing on high-margin products and channel expansion, with significant growth in its core offerings like volcanic stone grilled sausages and high-end dumplings [12][13] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is seeing improvements in its direct sales and distribution channels, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic adjustments in customer structure and resource allocation [15][18] - Salted Fish is capitalizing on the konjac trend and optimizing its product mix to improve profitability, with a strong emphasis on high-margin products and efficient channel management [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][47]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is bottoming out, with a focus on structural opportunities. The report anticipates continued pressure on sales in the white liquor market through Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with a potential recovery in Q2 of next year due to a low base effect. The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and other regional brands for investment opportunities [2][44]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments within the food and beverage industry, with certain sectors like snacks and soft drinks showing potential growth driven by key products and channel contributions [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index decreased by 2.97% from November 14 to November 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.00 percentage points [9][11]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the dairy sector showing the smallest decline of 0.11% [11][12]. - Approximately 6% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Hai Xin Food (+11.34%) and Nan Qiao Food (+7.86%) [13][14]. - The industry valuation is currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of approximately 21.3 times, compared to the historical average of 32 times [15]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1 White Liquor Sector - The report notes a decline in the prices of premium liquor brands, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 1590 RMB per bottle, down 50 RMB from the previous period [17]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Prices for soybean meal increased, while white sugar and glass prices decreased. The price of white sugar fell to 5470 RMB per ton, a decrease of 290 RMB [22]. 2.3 Beer Sector - The average price of barley decreased to 2195 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots increased slightly [27]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram [34]. 2.5 Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 18.07 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.88% [36]. 3. Industry News - The report mentions a 4.1% year-on-year growth in retail sales of tobacco and alcohol for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [39]. - The report also highlights a 16.1% increase in beer exports for the first ten months of 2025, suggesting a growing international demand [40]. 4. Company Announcements - Yili Group announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [43]. 5. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic recovery and distributor confidence in the white liquor sector, while also suggesting investment in high-quality brands and sectors benefiting from policy support [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic shift of Jiu Gui Jiu from a broad distribution model to a more focused approach, emphasizing high-value interactions with a select group of consumers through intimate marketing events like the "Master Banquet" [1][2]. Group 1: Circle "Slimming" - The "Master Banquet" held on October 20 is a tangible expression of Jiu Gui Jiu's strategy to slim down its target audience, focusing on high-net-worth individuals and local business leaders [1][4]. - Since May, the company has hosted 29 such events across various cities in Hunan, with each banquet typically accommodating 12 to 15 participants [1]. - This approach marks a departure from the previous expansive distribution model, which had led to increased complexity and inventory pressure [7]. Group 2: Marketing "Slimming" - Jiu Gui Jiu is shifting from mass marketing strategies to more targeted, scene-based marketing, focusing on specific events like weddings and graduation celebrations [9][12]. - The company has reported a 21% increase in sales for graduation banquets in Hunan, with a staggering 273% growth in the Xiangxi region [13]. - The marketing strategy now emphasizes local engagement and collaboration with community resources to enhance brand presence in specific social contexts [13][16]. Group 3: Product "Slimming" - The company is adjusting its product strategy by focusing on lower-priced and lower-alcohol products to cater to changing consumer preferences [17][19]. - Jiu Gui Jiu has introduced new products priced around 350 yuan and 200 yuan to address the demand for more affordable options [19]. - The company has streamlined its product line, reducing SKU numbers by approximately 50% and focusing on three core series: "Inner Reference," "Jiu Gui," and "Xiang Quan" [22].