Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%, and the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 0.08% [1][17] - The liquor segment, particularly baijiu, showed a strong performance with a 3.86% increase, driven by positive sales dynamics for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai, which saw its batch price rise to 1700 yuan [2][11] - The overall performance of the consumer goods sector was weaker, with declines in most categories except for meat products, which increased by 0.52% [1][17] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector's performance from January 26 to January 30 showed a 1.56% increase, with specific categories like baijiu increasing by 3.86% and snacks decreasing by 6.07% [1][17] Weekly Perspective Update - The baijiu sector is gaining attention, with Guizhou Moutai's sales performing well. The sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable market conditions and improved sales dynamics [2][11] - The consumer goods sector, excluding meat products, showed a decline, with specific stocks like Li Ziyuan increasing by 16.0% while others like Hao Xiang Ni decreased significantly [2][12] Sector Investment Recommendations - For the baijiu sector, the report recommends focusing on leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, anticipating strong sales during the Spring Festival [3] - In the consumer goods sector, the report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season, recommending companies like East Peak, Wei Long, and New Dairy for potential growth [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a challenging year in 2025, projecting revenue of approximately 1.1 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders, primarily due to intensified competition and reduced market demand in the liquor industry [1] Group 1: Performance and Financial Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with increased pressure on mid-sized enterprises and significant challenges for high-end and mid-range products [1] - The company is committed to a "long-termism" development philosophy, maintaining investments in marketing, consumer cultivation, and channel construction despite short-term profit impacts [1] - The company aims to return channel inventory to healthy levels and improve sales efficiency, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth [1] Group 2: Product Innovation and Channel Development - The company has optimized its product matrix and accelerated innovation, implementing a "2+2+2" product system management, achieving a 60% SKU reduction [2] - Collaborations with partners like Pang Donglai have led to successful product launches, significantly expanding channel coverage and achieving notable breakthroughs in markets outside Hunan [2][3] - The company is focusing on high-profit channel strategies and has implemented a "grid-based operation" strategy to enhance market performance [2] Group 3: Brand Empowerment and Operational Upgrades - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts by focusing on key life events and sports, creating themed marketing campaigns to strengthen customer connections [4] - Significant growth in banquet events has been observed, with a 21% increase in graduation banquets and a 49% increase in wedding banquets in the second half of the year [4] - The company is implementing cost control measures to improve operational efficiency, resulting in a decrease in sales expense ratio compared to the previous year [4] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives for Future Growth - The company is preparing for the 2026 high-quality development phase by launching a series of marketing initiatives for the Spring Festival, enhancing product positioning as festive gifts [5] - Four core initiatives for 2026 include strengthening brand and cultural empowerment, deepening market penetration, promoting product innovation, and continuing cost reduction efforts [6] - Analysts suggest that companies like the company, with new products and channels, may see significant performance recovery in 2026 if market conditions improve [6]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日 2、预计的经营业绩：亏损 三、业绩变动原因说明 2025年，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，存量竞争加剧背景下，中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需 求减弱带来的各方面挑战，公司高端和次高端价位段产品承压较大，公司预计报告期实现营业收入11亿 元左右，较上年同期下降22%左右。 面对行业周期性调整，公司坚守"长期主义"发展理念，谋求长远稳健发展，积极应对当前形势，为推动 业务发展维持了一定的营销、消费培育、渠道建设等刚性费用投入：一方面，公司全力深化渠道建设， 推进"扫雷行动"与网格化管理，新增核心终端网点，积极拓展新零售、企业团购、连锁KA及国际业务 等渠道，渠道建设投入持续增加；另一方面为纾解渠道库存、激活终端需求，公司聚焦C端投放销售资 源，强化消费者体验，坚持推出扫码红包、宴席补贴等动销激励政策，开展升学宴、婚宴、体育赛事等 主题营销及线下品鉴活动，强化消费者培育与场景渗透，销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with many companies experiencing a shift from profit to loss or a notable decline in performance due to deep industry adjustments and intense market competition [1][3]. Company Performance - JiuGuiJiu (酒鬼酒) expects a net profit loss of 33 million to 49 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - Shunxin Agriculture (顺鑫农业) anticipates a net profit loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan, also transitioning from profit to loss due to intense market pressure and declining sales [1][2]. - Jinzhongzi Liquor (金种子酒) projects a net profit loss of 150 million to 190 million yuan, remaining in a loss position despite a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Tianyoude Liquor (天佑德酒) expects a net profit of 4.21 million to 6.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 85% to 90% year-on-year [2][3]. - ShuiJingFang (水井坊) forecasts a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit declining by 70% [2][3]. - KouziJiao (口子窖) anticipates a net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan, representing a decrease of 50% to 60% year-on-year [3]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to slow recovery in core consumption scenarios [3]. - High inventory levels and weak terminal sales are common pressures affecting the industry, directly impacting company operations [3]. - Despite the current downturn, there are indications that the industry may gradually enter a recovery phase as macroeconomic conditions improve and consumer demand rebounds [4].

南财智讯1月30日电，酒鬼酒发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为亏损 3300万元—4900万元；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为亏损2900万 元—4300万元。归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比预减364.1%—492.2%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润同比预减860.2%—1227.2%。2025年，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，存量竞争加 剧背景下，中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需求减弱带来的各方面挑战，公司高端和次高端价位 段产品承压较大，公司预计报告期实现营业收入11亿元左右，较上年同期下降22%左右。面对行业周期 性调整，公司坚守"长期主义"发展理念，谋求长远稳健发展，积极应对当前形势，为推动业务发展维持 了一定的营销、消费培育、渠道建设等刚性费用投入：一方面，公司全力深化渠道建设，推进"扫雷行 动"与网格化管理，新增核心终端网点，积极拓展新零售、企业团购、连锁KA及国际业务等渠道，渠道 建设投入持续增加；另一方面为纾解渠道库存、激活终端需求，公司聚焦C端投放销售资源，强化消费 者体验，坚持推出扫码红包、宴席补贴等动销激励 ...

每经AI快讯，1月30日，酒鬼酒（000799）(000799.SZ)公告称，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利 润为亏损3300万元至4900万元，上年同期盈利1249.33万元。2025年，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，存 量竞争加剧背景下，中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需求减弱带来的各方面挑战，公司高端和次 高端价位段产品承压较大，公司预计报告期实现营业收入11亿元左右，较上年同期下降22%左右。 ...

格隆汇1月30日｜酒鬼酒公告，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损3300万元-4900万元，上 年同期盈利1249.33万元。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损2900万元-4300万元，上年同期盈利381.49 万元。公司预计2025年度实现营业收入11亿元左右，较上年同期下降22%左右。2025年，白酒行业仍处 于深度调整期，存量竞争加剧背景下，中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需求减弱带来的各方面挑 战，公司高端和次高端价位段产品承压较大。 ...

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2026-01 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 本次业绩预告未经会计师事务所注册会计师预审计。公司已就业 绩预告有关事项与年度审计会计师进行了预沟通，公司与会计师事务 所在本期业绩预告方面不存在分歧。 三、业绩变动原因说明 2025 年，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，存量竞争加剧背景下， 中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需求减弱带来的各方面挑战， 公司高端和次高端价位段产品承压较大，公司预计报告期实现营业收 入 11 亿元左右，较上年同期下降 22%左右。 面对行业周期性调整，公司坚守"长期主义"发展理念，谋求长 远稳健发展，积极应对当前形势，为推动业务发展维持了一定的营销、 消费培育、渠道建设等刚性费用投入：一方面，公司全力深化渠道建 设，推进"扫雷行动"与网格化管理，新增核心终端网点，积极拓展 新零售、企业团购、连锁 KA 及国际业务等渠道，渠 ...

酒鬼酒公告，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损3300万元-4900万元，上年同期盈利 1249.33万元。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损2900万元-4300万元，上年同期盈利381.49万元。公司 预计2025年度实现营业收入11亿元左右，较上年同期下降22%左右。2025年，白酒行业仍处于深度调整 期，存量竞争加剧背景下，中小酒企经营压力更大，公司受到市场需求减弱带来的各方面挑战，公司高 端和次高端价位段产品承压较大。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with the market-oriented transformation of Moutai, are stimulating incremental demand and driving up prices, leading to a valuation recovery [2]. - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Jiuye, and Jinhui Jiu [4]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, and policies are becoming more favorable. The liquor industry is a typical cyclical sector, with market pricing influenced by both internal demand and real estate conditions. The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The real estate market is gradually bottoming out after years of adjustment, with recent government actions aimed at stabilizing market expectations and improving conditions [4]. Moutai's Market Transformation - Moutai's market-oriented reform has sparked incremental demand, with significant attention on liquor sales during the Spring Festival. Moutai has introduced various products on its iMoutai platform, leading to a surge in online purchases and stable price performance [4]. - As of January 29, Moutai's price has increased by over 1,600 RMB, with transaction prices exceeding 1,700 RMB, indicating successful price-volume strategies [4]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with liquidity improvements and expectations likely to catalyze stock prices. The report anticipates that if prices stabilize, the pressure on stock prices will lessen, and further positive signals from policies could enhance stock performance [4]. - The report includes earnings forecasts for key liquor companies, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for Moutai from 2024 to 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to decrease from 21 to 19 [5].