Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period, prompting liquor companies to collaborate strategically with "traffic channel merchants" to launch new products, exemplified by the partnership between Pang Donglai and Baofeng Liquor, which is expected to generate approximately 1 billion yuan in revenue within the year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The collaboration between liquor companies and traffic channel merchants is not an isolated case, with multiple instances of co-branded products emerging, such as "Free Love" by Pang Donglai and Baofeng Liquor, and "Yanghe Daqu" by JD and Yanghe Co. [3][4]. - The "liquor company + traffic channel merchant" model has become a significant strategy for addressing inventory pressure and sales challenges in the industry [3][5]. - The partnership model has shown promising short-term results, with "Free Love" projected to achieve 1 billion yuan in revenue and Yanghe Daqu selling over 10,000 bottles within 48 hours on JD [4][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The collaboration aims to leverage the terminal control and user assets of traffic channel merchants to enhance product sales and reduce customer acquisition costs [5][6]. - The liquor industry faces a critical challenge of high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, necessitating a shift from traditional distribution models to more direct sales approaches [6][7]. - Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association indicates that 58.1% of distributors reported increasing inventory levels in the first half of 2025, highlighting the ongoing inventory pressure in the market [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The increasing collaboration between liquor companies and traffic channel merchants is expected to evolve, with a focus on creating differentiated products and transitioning from "channel-driven" to "brand-driven" strategies [8][9]. - The historical evolution of this collaboration model reflects a shift from simple supply relationships to strategic partnerships, emphasizing the need for liquor companies to understand consumer demands and develop unique products to stand out in a competitive market [9][10].

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2025-16 二、对公司的影响 公司已连续多年向援扶对象捐赠帮扶资金，此次捐赠事项是公司 持续积极履行社会责任、回馈社会的举措，有利于彰显公司服务国家 战略的使命担当，有利于提升公司品牌形象和社会影响力。本次对外 捐赠事项不会对公司经营产生重大影响。 特此公告 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月11日 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于对外捐赠的公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、捐赠事项概述 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为切实履行公司的社 会责任，提升公司品牌形象，拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金人民币 200 万元，用于当地教育、医疗、科技、文化等帮扶项目。根据《深 圳证券交易所股票上市规则》及《公司章程》等相关规定，本事项无 须提交董事会及股东会审议。本次对外捐赠事项不构成关联交易。 ...

酒鬼酒：拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元 智通财经7月10日电，酒鬼酒(000799.SZ)公告称，公司拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元，用于当 地教育、医疗、科技、文化等帮扶项目。此次捐赠是公司持续积极履行社会责任、回馈社会的举措，不 会对公司经营产生重大影响。 ...

酒鬼酒（000799）公告，公司拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元，用于当地教育、医疗、科技、文 化等帮扶项目。此次捐赠不构成关联交易，且不会对公司经营产生重大影响。 ...

Group 1 - Fenggu Liquor Industry has appointed Chen Chao as the chairman candidate, indicating a positive change in the industry after its bankruptcy restructuring [1] - Chen Chao, born in June 1989, has extensive experience in the liquor industry and management, which may enhance market confidence in Fenggu's recovery [1] Group 2 - Fat Donglai's founder Yu Donglai announced that the "Free·Love" product line is expected to generate around 1 billion yuan in revenue this year, showcasing the brand's ambition to achieve international quality standards [2] - The collaboration between Fat Donglai and Baofeng Distillery to launch "Free·Love" reflects an innovative approach in the retail sector, potentially opening new sales channels for traditional liquor companies [2] Group 3 - Moutai and Xijiu have donated a total of 20 million yuan for disaster recovery efforts in Qiandongnan Prefecture, demonstrating corporate social responsibility and strengthening their brand image [3] - The donations include 10 million yuan from Moutai and 3 million yuan from Xijiu, highlighting the close relationship between local liquor companies and regional development [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to show upward momentum, with the Food ETF (515710) experiencing a peak intraday increase of 1.34% before closing up 0.67% [1][3] - The Food ETF (515710) exhibited a notable premium at the close, with a closing premium rate of 0.28%, indicating strong buying interest [3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Yanjing Beer, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, showed significant gains, with Yanjing Beer rising by 2.22% and several others increasing by over 1% [3] Group 2 - After a significant prior correction, the food and beverage sector is stabilizing, with Guangfa Securities suggesting that the liquor industry may see a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, indicating a potential mid-cycle buying point [3][4] - The current dividend yield of the sector compared to the ten-year government bond yield suggests attractive value for investors, especially as the sector's valuation has reached a near 10-year low [3][4] - As of July 8, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index was 19.83, placing it in the 2.94% percentile of the past decade, highlighting its long-term investment appeal [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead, Guosen Securities notes that since September 24, 2024, macro policies have increasingly focused on boosting consumption, with a special action plan aimed at expanding domestic demand [4] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from these consumption-boosting policies, with a gradual recovery in consumer demand anticipated [4] - Hu Long Securities predicts that the revenue and net profit growth rates for the food and beverage industry will slow in the first quarter of 2025, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors [4] Group 4 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverages, dairy, and seasoning stocks [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, indicating a strong focus on core assets within the sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a period of adjustment, with leading companies focusing on "steady development" as their primary strategy amidst challenges such as slowing consumer demand and intensified competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Dividends - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe are showing a trend of increasing dividend amounts and ratios, reflecting their strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. - Moutai plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 646.72 billion yuan for 2024, with a distribution rate of around 80% [7]. - Wuliangye announced a record high total dividend of 223 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend yield of 4.9%, and committed to maintaining a dividend ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026 [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao has also set a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing from 65% to 75% over the next three years [8]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The keyword for the liquor industry in 2025 is "stability," as companies prioritize maintaining market share and quality over rapid growth [3][6]. - Wuliangye reported a revenue growth of 7.09% and a net profit growth of 5.44% for 2024, continuing its trend of steady growth for ten consecutive years [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu emphasized the shift in competition from speed to quality, focusing on stabilizing markets, channels, and prices [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - Moutai's international revenue reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy, which includes transitioning from product export to brand and cultural promotion [9]. - Wuliangye has successfully opened 21 new overseas markets and established 29 new distributors, enhancing its international presence [10]. - Fenjiu is implementing a differentiated international strategy, successfully filling market gaps in 11 countries and increasing its overseas revenue by over 50% [10]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content beverages is gaining traction, with several leading companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, planning to launch low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [13][16]. - Moutai has introduced a blueberry sparkling wine and is actively recruiting distributors to capture more market share in the low-alcohol segment [16]. - The industry is recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with companies exploring new product lines to meet diverse market demands [16].