Core Viewpoint - The demand for waste paper pulp is surging due to the rapid growth of e-commerce and logistics in China, driven by a stable domestic economy and supportive government policies promoting recycling and circular economy initiatives [1][12][21]. Industry Overview - Waste paper pulp, also known as recycled pulp, is produced from waste paper and cardboard through various processing techniques. The production methods include dry and wet processes, with dry methods being more cost-effective [3][7]. - The production of waste paper pulp in China is projected to increase from 54.44 million tons in 2018 to 63.18 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% [1][12]. Market Dynamics - The "ban on waste" policy has led to a complete halt in imported waste paper, exacerbating the shortage of virgin pulp and prompting companies to ramp up waste paper pulp production to meet market demands [1][12]. - The waste paper recovery volume in China is expected to reach 69.71 million tons by 2024, with a recovery rate of 51.1% and a utilization rate of 51.6% [10]. Government Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the recycling industry, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system for waste materials [5][6]. - Recent policies encourage the deep processing of recycled resources, including waste paper, to enhance the recycling industry's efficiency and output [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The waste paper pulp industry features a diverse competitive landscape, with both large enterprises and small to medium-sized companies. Major players include Shanying International, Sun Paper, and Chenming Paper [16][17]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, driven by policy and capital influences, leading to increased market concentration [16]. Future Trends - The waste paper pulp industry is anticipated to maintain steady growth, supported by increasing consumer demand for eco-friendly products and ongoing government initiatives [21]. - Future production will focus on green and intelligent manufacturing, with investments in environmental technologies and automation to enhance efficiency and reduce emissions [22][23]. - The collaboration across the waste paper recycling supply chain is expected to strengthen, improving the overall recovery and utilization rates of waste paper [24].

Core Insights - The appreciation of the Renminbi has led to a 0.79% increase in the benefiting sectors compared to the previous trading day, with ST Chenming leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.6, up 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11106.96, up 0.59% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing stock was ST Chenming, with a closing price of 2.15 and a gain of 4.88%, followed by Tongling Nonferrous Metals at 3.66 with a 3.68% increase [1] - Other notable gainers included Zhongshun Jiesheng (3.05%), Zuixing Paper (2.29%), and Caesar Travel (2.26%) [1] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The benefiting sector saw a net inflow of 85.54 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 192 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for ST Chenming was 761,500 shares, with a transaction value of 161 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a net inflow of 87.25 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 124 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Caesar Travel and Sun Paper also showed significant net inflows from institutional investors, but faced outflows from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The paper sector increased by 1.35% on August 5, with ST Chenming leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.6, up 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11106.96, up 0.59% [1] Individual Stock Performance - ST Chenming (000488) closed at 2.15, up 4.88% with a trading volume of 761,500 shares and a turnover of 161 million yuan [1] - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) closed at 12.45, up 3.49% with a trading volume of 39,700 shares and a turnover of approximately 48.72 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Gao Xing Paper (002067): closed at 4.46, up 2.29% [1] - Hengfeng Paper (600356): closed at 9.10, up 2.02% [1] - Songyang Resources (603863): closed at 18.10, up 1.69% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net inflow of 24.97 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 59.66 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 84.63 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Sun Paper (002078): net inflow of 49.88 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 24.43 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - ST Chenming (000488): net inflow of 38.98 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 17.19 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Kai'en Co. (002012) and Songyang Resources (603863) also showed varied capital flows [3]

记者丨易佳颖 编辑丨黄剑 "自8月1日起，瓦楞纸价格、再生牛卡纸价格上调30元/吨""再生纸、瓦楞纸、纱管纸所有克重统一上调 50元/吨"。 自7月初以来，这样的涨价函正密集砸向包装纸市场。玖龙纸业在短短一个月内已六次宣布调涨瓦楞 纸、再生牛卡纸等纸张价格，山鹰国际、理文造纸、湖北荣成等头部纸企紧随其后，纷纷宣布8月起将 执行新价格。 "7月异常降雨严重阻碍废纸回收，"广东造纸行业协会常务副会长陈竹在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访 时指出："近期纸价上行主要受成本端驱动，废纸原料占生产成本70%~80%。广东地区因持续降雨的异 常气候导致废纸回收与物流受阻，进一步加剧供应紧张，对成本构成显著压力。" 卓创数据显示，7月下旬废黄板纸均价达1482元/吨，同比上涨2.75%。然而，若将视野放得更远些，此 番涨价的背后是造纸行业困于"低价内卷"。"在行业出现亏损或微利、已无进一步降价空间的背景下， 纸价反弹成为供需触底后的市场自发现象。"在卓创资讯瓦楞纸分析师李莉看来，此轮涨价承载双重目 的：其一为修复纸厂自身利润水平；其二则为利用价格信号刺激下游在关键节点补库，从而有效缓解纸 厂高企的库存压力。 除了集体提价外，纸 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation, leading to a "transformation bull market" in the stock market, with expectations for new highs in the future [1][15][16] - Key investment themes include a focus on financials, growth sectors, and certain cyclical industries, as the market adjusts and gains confidence [1][2][3] Group 2: Key Investment Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: 1. Banking: China Merchants Bank 2. Non-bank: CICC and New China Life Insurance 3. Overseas Technology: Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou-W 4. Electronics: Cambricon Technologies, Chipone Technology, and Suzhou Tianmai 5. Computing: Dingjie Smart and Anheng Information 6. Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic and Mingzhi Electric 7. Military: AVIC Shenfei 8. Coal: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 9. Light Industry: Sun Paper 10. Agriculture: Muyuan Foods 11. Transportation: SF Express 12. Pharmaceuticals: MicroPort Medical 13. Real Estate: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle 14. Utilities: Huadian International Power [1][4][12] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to face revenue pressure but maintain positive net profit growth, with a gradual recovery in net interest margins anticipated [22][23] - China Merchants Bank is projected to benefit from economic recovery, with an upward revision of net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 [25][26][27] Group 4: Non-Banking Sector Insights - The impact of the new tax on bond interest income is expected to be limited for the non-banking sector, with continued optimism for growth in this area [30][32] - CICC is forecasted to see significant profit growth driven by active trading and investment recovery, with an increase in EPS estimates for 2025-2027 [33][34] Group 5: Technology Sector Insights - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures significantly, particularly in AI, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [43][45] - Tencent is expected to leverage AI to enhance its core business, with revenue and profit projections being adjusted upwards for 2025-2027 [45][46][47]

Market Overview - On August 4, the paper sector rose by 0.12% compared to the previous trading day, with Kane Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3583.31, up 0.66%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11041.56, up 0.46% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kane Co. (002012) closed at 6.31, with a gain of 5.87% and a trading volume of 994,100 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 625 million [1] - ST Morning (000488) closed at 2.05, up 3.02%, with a trading volume of 425,400 shares and a transaction value of 86.34 million [1] - Xianhe Co. (603733) closed at 22.00, increasing by 2.28%, with a trading volume of 40,900 shares and a transaction value of 89.94 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Minfeng Special Paper (600235) with a closing price of 6.57, up 1.23%, and Hengda New Materials (301469) at 27.97, up 1.05% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector experienced a net outflow of 81.62 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 43.91 million [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in ST Morning (000488) with 12.04 million and Xianhe Co. (603733) with 474.99 million [3] - Conversely, significant net outflows were recorded for Sun Paper (002078) with -26.84 million from institutional investors and -34.59 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of the first "anti-involution" initiative, aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing structural overcapacity issues in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, emphasizing the need to resist low-price competition and maintain market order [1][6]. - The initiative encourages companies to set prices based on actual costs, reasonable profits, and market demand, aiming to protect the overall value of the industry [1][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite steady growth in consumption for certain paper types like corrugated paper and household paper, overall capacity expansion has outpaced demand growth, leading to low utilization rates, with some types below 55% [4]. - The industry is facing a prolonged supply-demand imbalance, characterized by declining operating rates and slow inventory reduction, indicating a typical cyclical bottom phase [6][9]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - Several paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price increases due to rising costs, marking the fourth round of price hikes in July alone [7]. - The overall paper industry has been under significant pricing pressure, with major paper types experiencing price declines since 2021, reflecting weak market demand and overcapacity [7][9]. Group 4: Institutional Focus - Institutions are focusing on companies like Sun Paper, which has integrated pulp and paper production, and others in the sector that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative and potential market restructuring [10][13]. - Analysts suggest monitoring companies that are diversifying product lines and those with integrated operations, as the industry may see improvements in profitability due to reduced competition and optimized capacity [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry saw a rise of 1.47% on August 1, with Songyang Resources leading the gains, while the overall market indices experienced slight declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3559.95, down 0.37% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10991.32, down 0.17% [1]. - Key stocks in the paper sector showed significant gains, with Songyang Resources up 10.01% and Kain Co. up 9.96% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Songyang Resources (603863) closed at 18.13 with a trading volume of 226,600 shares and a total transaction value of 396 million [1]. - Kain Co. (002012) closed at 5.96 with a trading volume of 322,200 shares and a total transaction value of 185 million [1]. - Other notable performers included Shanying International (600567) up 3.17% and Bohui Paper (600966) up 2.46% [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The paper sector experienced a net inflow of 127 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 50.71 million [2]. - Major stocks like Songyang Resources and Kain Co. attracted significant institutional investment, with net inflows of 77.72 million and 52.65 million respectively [3]. - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, indicating a cautious sentiment among smaller investors [3].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for August indicates a stable policy environment with an upward shift in risk appetite, suggesting that industrial growth will remain a key theme [7] - The strategy outlook highlights an "extension of offensive trends" in the market, with a recommendation to maintain positions and selectively increase holdings as the A-share market shows a bullish trend [8] - The quantitative perspective suggests breaking the deflationary spiral, with expectations for a cyclical upswing in the market [9] Group 2: Selected Stocks for August - The selected stocks for August include China Pacific Insurance (non-bank), China Shipbuilding Industry (military), Shanghai Yanpu (large manufacturing), Weilan Lithium (electric new energy), Wanjun Technology (computer), Guomai Culture (media), Baiwei Storage (consumer electronics), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (non-ferrous), Sun Paper (light industry), and Tigermed (pharmaceutical) [11] - China Pacific Insurance is positioned as a leading insurance company with a strong background, expected to benefit from its transformation and increase in new business value [12] - China Shipbuilding Industry is identified as a leader in naval defense, benefiting from advancements in deep-sea technology and a growing market for underwater monitoring systems [17] - Shanghai Yanpu is noted for its potential in the seating market, with a platform transformation expected to enhance performance and market share [20] - Weilan Lithium is recognized for its robust main business and potential for valuation upgrades due to new product developments [25] - Wanjun Technology is highlighted for its long-standing expertise in creative software, with AI product commercialization expected to accelerate growth [28] - Guomai Culture is anticipated to benefit from the release of its animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," which is expected to drive revenue [32] - Baiwei Storage is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry, with a focus on advanced packaging technology [38] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is expected to see price increases in tin and antimony, driven by strong demand and limited supply [43] - Sun Paper is projected to benefit from industry stabilization and cost advantages from its integrated operations [50] - Tigermed is positioned to gain from the growing demand for clinical CRO services as the innovative drug sector expands [55]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "bull market atmosphere" is continuously strengthening, with the main logic of "anti-involution" significantly improving the supply-demand structure for midstream manufacturing in 2026 [6][14] - The report suggests that the conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, but the profit effect is accelerating, potentially leading to an earlier time for comprehensive incremental speculation in A-shares [6][14] - The report recommends actively seeking new structural opportunities in the current market phase, which is seen as a transitional stage for the market to find the main structure of the bull market [6][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the "iron triangle" stocks: Ruike Laser, Giant Network, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [6][17] - Other recommended stocks include: Pengding Holdings, Yangnong Chemical, Sun Paper, Zhongmin Resources, China Shipbuilding, Maifusi (Hong Kong), and Jianfa International Group (Hong Kong) [6][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology with industrial trend catalysts and midstream manufacturing with improved supply-demand dynamics as key investment themes [6][14] Group 3 - The previous stock combination from July 1 to July 31, 2025, achieved a return of 5.11%, with A-shares averaging a 3.53% increase, while the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 2.91% [6][2] - Since the first release of the stock combination on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 322.85%, with A-shares up 251.34% and Hong Kong stocks up 809.47% [6][2] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for the recommended stocks, including market capitalization and price changes, indicating a strong performance relative to benchmarks [6][15]