Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点孔茜通讯员吴丛 从大亚湾核电站海底管道里自主清淤的无人装备，到帮助残障人士用"意念"操控肢体行走的脑机接口系统，再到为传统造纸企业破解数十年上料痛点的智 能方案……这些看似不相关的技术突破且鲜少被大众只晓得特种技术赛道，其背后推手正是坐落于济宁高新区的中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院济宁分 院。 该院以"隐形冠军"的姿态深耕细作。不追逐流量曝光，却在细分领域突破全球技术壁垒；不标榜行业光环，却用"从0到1"的创新，为多个卡脖子场景提供 唯一解。 "无人化清淤" 助力大亚湾核电站高效运维 广东大亚湾核电站的海底管道入口处，咸湿海风掠过金属管壁。一抹亮黄色`目，这台搭载着展开式柔性清理组件的特种无人装备，正缓缓驶入半径2米的 管道入口。它不仅是中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院济宁分院"封闭及半开放场所无人驾驶技术"的具象成果，更标志着全球核电运维领域"无人化清淤"实 战的正式启幕。 作为核电站的"冷却动脉"，大亚湾核电站连接冷却塔与核反应堆的海底管道，长度延伸至3-5公里，常年浸泡在海水中的管壁极易附着贝类、藻类等海生 物，日积月累形成厚厚的污垢层，成为制约核电安全高效运维的"老大难"。此前，传统人工清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks are experiencing an upward trend, with major companies announcing price increases for their products in late November to early December, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) saw a stock increase of 5.25%, reaching HKD 6.41, while Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 4.65% to HKD 3.15 [1] - Major companies such as Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have issued price adjustment notices for their products [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - The upcoming price increases will affect both packaging paper and corrugated paper, with packaging paper experiencing a moderate increase of around CNY 50 per ton [1] - Cultural paper types, such as copy paper and double offset paper, will see a more significant price increase of CNY 200 per ton [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the paper industry faced pressure on revenue and profits in Q3, but Q4 is expected to be a traditional demand peak season [1] - The anticipated price increases are expected to be partially or fully realized, alongside rising costs for waste paper and pulp, suggesting an upward trend in industry sentiment [1] - Industry leaders such as Sun Paper (002078) and Nine Dragons Paper are recommended for attention due to these developments [1]

| 交易日 | 融券冷卖出(股) | | 脚券会重(股) | 融券余额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-26 | | 4300.0 | 31.82万 | 460.44万 | | 2025-11-25 | | -2.84万 | 31.39万 | 454.21万 | | 2025-11-24 | | 2.04万 | 34.23万 | 496.33万 | | 2025-11-21 | | 1300.0 | 32.19万 | 470.62万 | | 2025-11-20 | | 3000.0 | 32.06万 | 472.88万 | 融资融券余额4.63亿元，较昨日上涨0.33%。 证券之星消息，11月26日，太阳纸业（002078）融资买入1160.96万元，融资偿还1014.76万元，融资净 买入146.2万元，融资余额4.59亿元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计425.16万元。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-26 | 146.20万 ...

（原标题：连续四年财务造假，300379拟被终止上市！纸张再迎来涨价潮！） 据统计，截至11月24日，国内瓦楞纸日均价为3213元/吨，同比上涨17.65%；箱板纸日均价为3889元/ 吨，同比上涨6.86%。 与此同时，近期国内多家知名浆纸企业密集发布产品调价通知，涉及白卡纸、铜卡、食品卡、再生牛卡 纸、高强瓦楞纸等多个纸种，调价幅度集中在50元/吨至200元/吨区间，执行时间主要集中在2025年11 月下旬至12月1日。企业普遍表示，调价旨在缓解经营压力、维护健康的市场秩序，确保能够持续为客 户提供稳定的高品质产品及服务，推动行业长期健康发展。 大同证券认为，当前造纸行业迎来"提价红利+需求改善+结构升级"三重利好。需求端，包装纸补库需 求延续，特种纸受益于环保政策与消费升级；供给端，龙头企业主导提价，低效产能逐步出清；成本 端，纸浆库存去化优化供需结构。板块估值处于历史低位，叠加行业转型带来的长期成长潜力，配置价 值进一步凸显。 今年三季度以来，包装纸行业用到的原纸，价格接连上涨。 *ST东通拟被终止上市 11月26日晚，*ST东通发布公告，公司于11月26日收到深圳证券交易所下发的《事先告知书》，拟决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase for raw paper, with multiple companies announcing new price hikes in the fourth quarter to cope with rising costs [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since the third quarter of this year, the price of raw paper used in the packaging paper industry has been continuously rising [3]. - As of November 24, the average daily price of corrugated paper was 3,213 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, while the average price of boxboard was 3,889 RMB/ton, up 6.86% year-on-year [4]. - Several well-known pulp and paper companies have recently issued price adjustment notices for various paper types, with price increases ranging from 50 RMB/ton to 200 RMB/ton, effective mainly from late November to December 1, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - Companies in the packaging paper sector are adjusting their prices, with increases of 10% to 15%, which is lower than the 20% to 30% increase in upstream raw paper prices [3]. - Major securities firms believe the current paper industry is benefiting from a combination of price increases, improved demand, and structural upgrades, with a positive outlook for profitability in the fourth quarter [4]. - Notable companies such as Sun Paper, Annie Co., Huatai Paper, and Bohui Paper have seen significant net buying in financing, indicating strong market interest [5]. - Forecasts suggest that companies like Hengfeng Paper, Qifeng New Materials, and Bohui Paper will see net profit growth rates of 70.67%, 35.33%, and 20.2% respectively for the year 2025 [5][8].

Market Overview - The paper sector increased by 1.03% on November 25, with Kane Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12777.31, up 1.53% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kane Co. (002012) closed at 6.25, up 6.84% with a trading volume of 259,500 shares and a turnover of 158 million yuan [1] - Qingshan Paper (600103) closed at 3.53, up 4.13% with a trading volume of 1,452,200 shares and a turnover of 508 million yuan [1] - Songyang Resources (603863) closed at 18.83, up 2.62% with a trading volume of 48,600 shares and a turnover of 91.68 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include BoHui Paper (600966) and Anni Co. (002235), with increases of 2.55% and 1.77% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net inflow of 64.07 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 98.59 million yuan [2][3] - Speculative funds contributed a net inflow of 34.51 million yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Qingshan Paper (600103) had a net outflow of 54.08 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Sun Paper (002078) saw a net inflow of 16.68 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - BoHui Paper (600966) experienced a net inflow of 11.26 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 2.79% on November 21, with Qingshan Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingshan Paper (600103) saw a significant drop of 6.30%, closing at 3.42, with a trading volume of 1.74 million shares and a turnover of 609 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Minfeng Special Paper (600235) down 6.13% to 6.58, and Hengda New Materials (301469) down 5.74% to 28.25 [2] - Annie Co. (002235) was one of the few gainers, increasing by 1.29% to 8.62, with a trading volume of 2.09 million shares and a turnover of 1.82 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 347 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 282 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in stocks like Huawang Technology (605377) with a net inflow of 5.94 million yuan, while stocks like Qingshan Paper experienced a net outflow of 510,900 yuan [3]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a slight decline of 0.08% on November 20, with Jingxing Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Annie Co. (002235) saw a significant increase of 9.95%, closing at 8.51, with a trading volume of 808,200 shares and a turnover of 680 million [1] - Yibin Paper (600793) rose by 3.31% to 22.78, with a trading volume of 63,900 shares and a turnover of 14.5 million [1] - Other notable performers included Bohui Paper (600966) up 2.25% and Minshida (920394) up 1.16% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector had a net inflow of 191 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of approximately 59.4 million [2] - The main capital inflow was concentrated in Annie Co. with a net inflow of 3.44 billion, representing 50.64% of its trading volume [3] - Other stocks like Yibin Paper and Bohui Paper also experienced positive net inflows from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on November 17, with Songyang Resources leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qing Shan Paper (600103) saw an increase of 2.39% in its closing price at 4.29, with a trading volume of 314.05 million shares [1] - Changxing Wanye (002067) rose by 2.01% to close at 6.10, with a trading volume of 141.35 million shares [1] - Songyang Resources (603863) experienced the largest decline, falling by 5.52% to 18.99, with a trading volume of 129,800 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector had a net outflow of 131 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 53.63 million yuan [2] - Institutional investors showed a net inflow of 77.70 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Qing Shan Paper had a net inflow of 32.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 50.99 million yuan [3] - Yueyang Lin Paper (600963) recorded a net inflow of 14.03 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow of 6.29 million yuan [3] - Songyang Resources had a significant net outflow of 25.36 million yuan from institutional investors [3]