Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and other aspects of offset printing paper. It shows that the production of offset printing paper is expected to increase slightly next week, with stable demand and inventory likely to accumulate. The cost of offset printing paper has risen due to raw material price increases, and production profit is expected to decline. If the price increase is successfully implemented, it may offset the cost increase. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Domestic production in the week of 2025/11/7 was 20.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.20 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 53.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The monthly import volume was 1.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 million tons. The weekly apparent demand was 19.60 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 million tons. The monthly export volume was 5.60 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million tons. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84 million tons. Enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total spot inventory all increased, with the total inventory reaching 189.50 million tons. It is expected that the production of the double - offset paper industry will continue to increase, about 21.0 million tons next week, and the demand will remain stable, with inventory likely to accumulate [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period, but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation. The market self - pick - up prices also remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed an upward trend compared to the previous period, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices remained stable, and the futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts was expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands was expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material costs of major pulp types decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The total production cost decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot price is stable, and transactions are based on rigid demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly supply, demand, inventory, and other data of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume, production, total supply, domestic demand, total demand, etc. showed different trends compared to 2024. For example, in January 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased by 18.05% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 10.87% year - on - year [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons are yet to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation is 120 - 140 million tons. Major companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, and Sun Paper have new production capacity plans or capacity resumption plans [18]. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost - Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of major pulp types such as Ural Needle, Moon, and Goldfish decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation [8]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread**: Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season. The futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts is expected to remain stable [10].

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.27% on November 12, with Jingxing Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Bohui Paper, which rose by 3.32% to a closing price of 5.92, with a trading volume of 419,400 shares and a transaction value of 244 million yuan [1] - Other gainers included Sun Paper with a 0.72% increase, closing at 15.42, and Kain Co. with a 0.50% increase, closing at 6.02 [1] - Decliners included Zhi Xing Paper, which fell by 3.28% to 5.89, and Yibin Paper, down 1.90% to 23.18 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 241 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 261 million yuan [2][3] - The data indicates that while institutional investors withdrew funds, retail investors were actively buying into the sector [2][3] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Bohui Paper had a net inflow of 31.14 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 33.86 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Hengfeng Paper experienced a small net inflow of 1.52 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 273,600 yuan [3] - Other stocks like Kain Co. and Huawang Technology saw significant net outflows from institutional investors, indicating a cautious sentiment among larger players [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company primarily uses the wood pulp produced for its own paper manufacturing, while all of its dissolving pulp products are sold externally [1] Group 1 - The company, Sun Paper Industry, indicated that the wood pulp produced is mainly for self-use [1] - The dissolving pulp products are entirely exported [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company primarily produces wood pulp for its own use, while all of its dissolving pulp products are sold externally. There are currently no plans for related applications regarding pulp production [1]. Group 1 - The company produces wood pulp mainly for self-use [1] - All dissolving pulp products are sold externally [1] - There are no current plans for pulp production applications [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The number of enterprises in the paper and paper products industry reached 8,131 as of January to September 2025, an increase of 182 compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.29% [1] - The proportion of the paper and paper products industry enterprises in the total industrial enterprises is 1.56% [1] Group 2: Company Listings - Listed companies in the paper industry include: Chenming Paper (000488), Kane Co. (002012), Jingxing Paper (002067), Sun Paper (002078), Annie Co. (002235), Qifeng New Materials (002521), Qingshan Paper (600103), Minfeng Special Paper (600235), Huatai Co. (600308), Yueyang Forest Paper (600963), Bohui Paper (600966), Rongsheng Environmental Protection (603165), Xianhe Co. (603733), Songyang Resources (603863), Wuzhou Special Paper (605007), Huawang Technology (605377), and Forest Packaging (605500) [1] Group 3: Research Report - The report titled "Analysis of Development Models and Market Operation Potential of China's Paper Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [2]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.02% on November 7, with Sun Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Sun Paper closing at 14.71, up 2.22%, and other notable stocks like Xianhe Co. and Guanmeng High-tech also showing positive gains [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 156 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 215 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for various stocks in the paper sector varied significantly, with Sun Paper leading in both volume and turnover [2] - Specific stocks like Songyang Resources and Laifeng Co. experienced significant declines, with Songyang Resources down 5.01% [2] Group 3 - Sun Paper had a net inflow of 82.83 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced outflows from retail and speculative investors [3] - Other stocks like Bohui Paper and Guanmeng High-tech also showed mixed net inflows and outflows from different investor categories [3] - The overall sentiment in the paper sector appears to be cautious, with significant net outflows from institutional and speculative investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Sun Paper's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 is 720 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.5%, primarily due to the decline in pulp and paper prices, suggesting that profitability is at a bottoming phase [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the profitability of corrugated paper remains under pressure, but recent industry price increase notices are frequent, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1] - The company has issued a price increase notice for Q4, anticipating that the combination of the industry's peak season and the stabilization of pulp prices will support the implementation of these price hikes [1] Strategic Developments - The acceleration of the company's Laos forest land development is expected to enhance the self-sufficiency rate of wood chips and deepen the raw material supply barrier, leading to stronger profitability certainty amid cyclical fluctuations [1] - The company is recognized as a leading paper manufacturer with a diversified range of paper products and an integrated forest-pulp-paper operation, benefiting from a robust resource barrier in its Laos base [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its future performance and strategic positioning within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry's stock has shown a modest increase in price and trading activity, reflecting a stable market position despite a slight decline in revenue year-on-year [1][2]. Company Overview - Sun Paper Industry, established on April 26, 2000, and listed on November 16, 2006, is located in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sale of various paper products, including mechanical paper, paper products, wood pulp, and paperboard [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes: 27.32% from corrugated boxboard, 21.99% from double offset paper, 10.55% from coated paper, and other categories contributing smaller percentages [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Sun Paper Industry reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.66% to 2.5 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 4.915 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.236 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Sun Paper Industry was 35,500, a decrease of 10.96% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 12.31% to 78,181 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 47.7596 million shares, an increase of 198,300 shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Zhongtai Xingyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with varying changes in their holdings [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved performance in Q4 2025, with a focus on price increases in the paper market as demand recovers and raw material prices stabilize [2][5] - The company has a strong integrated business model in the forestry and paper industry, which helps mitigate cyclical fluctuations [4][5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate steady growth, with expected revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion respectively, and net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year but down 19.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.07%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Product Segmentation - Cultural paper prices decreased in Q3 2025, with average prices for double glue paper at 4,944 yuan/ton, down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and 9.2% year-on-year. Price increases are anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - Dissolving pulp prices fell significantly in Q3 2025, averaging 6,517 yuan/ton, down 16.8% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, but are expected to stabilize as costs decrease [2] - Boxboard prices showed mixed trends, with average prices for boxboard at 3,502 yuan/ton (down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter) and corrugated paper at 2,644 yuan/ton (up 3.7% quarter-on-quarter) [3] Strategic Developments - The company is optimizing its pulp and paper industry layout, with several new projects in progress that are expected to contribute to revenue in Q4 2025 [5] - The integration of forestry and pulp production is expected to enhance profitability and reduce the impact of market fluctuations [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are forecasted to be 12X, 10X, and 9X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the companies mentioned in the report for valuation have a "Buy" rating, including papermaking companies such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and metal packaging companies like OriGene Technologies [65][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - Listed companies are actively deploying overseas production capacity, with established production in regions like Vietnam to cover US orders. Overseas production has advantages in tariff rates, raw materials, labor, and local industrial preferential policies [2] - The supply - side of the papermaking and metal packaging industries is expected to improve. Prices and profitability are at low levels, and anti - involution is becoming a consensus among large manufacturers. Price synergy is expected to improve, and the prices of the entire papermaking industry chain are expected to rise, increasing the profits of leading companies. The two - piece cans in the metal packaging industry are expected to adjust prices at the end of the year, with significant profit elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Production Capacity Deployment - **Tariff Advantage**: Southeast Asian exports to the US have a significant tariff advantage compared to Chinese exports. For example, furniture products under the 301 clause show this difference [31] - **Raw Material Advantage**: Some overseas regions have abundant raw material reserves, which is beneficial for enterprises to purchase locally and reduce costs. Southeast Asia has good resource endowments suitable for traditional manufacturing industries [34] - **Labor Cost Advantage**: The labor cost in Vietnam is lower than that in China. The total employer cost in Vietnam is about 352,350 RMB, while in China it is about 385,120 RMB [39] - **Policy Advantage**: Southeast Asian countries have formulated different preferential policies for different industries through taxation, land, and subsidies [41] Papermaking Industry - **Industry Chain**: The papermaking industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as waste paper, wood pulp), mid - stream paper manufacturing, and downstream applications (such as packaging, printing) [47] - **Price and Profit**: In 2025, the prices of some paper products have changed. Boxboard paper and corrugated paper have increased in price, and the profitability of paper enterprises has first declined and then increased. Cultural paper prices are expected to stabilize and rise, and white cardboard price increase letters are waiting to be implemented [58][62] - **Company Analysis** - **Sun Paper**: In the short term, it is expected that the prices of broad - leaf pulp and cultural paper will increase in November, and the profit will be increased by more than 100 million after the commissioning of projects in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the company's competitive advantage is expected to expand [63] - **Nine Dragons Paper**: In FY25, the sales volume increased by 9.6% year - on - year. In the short term, the profit is expected to be repaired, and in the long term, the cost advantage is expected to be further expanded [63] Metal Packaging Industry - **Company Analysis - OriGene Technologies**: Domestically, the sales volume of two - piece cans in Q3 increased, and the overseas business slightly increased revenue and profit after the merger in September. In the short term, the two - piece cans are expected to adjust prices at the end of the year, and in the long term, the growth space is broad [66] - **Industry Trend**: The anti - involution initiative in the metal packaging industry is expected to improve price synergy, and the profit elasticity of two - piece can enterprises is large [67] Other Industries - **Pan - entertainment Industry**: From 2019 - 2024, the market size of China's pan - entertainment products and pan - entertainment toys has grown at a certain rate, and is expected to continue to grow from 2024 - 2029 [5][8] - **AR Industry**: Some AR companies have different financing stages, valuations, and market performances. For example, Rokid has a high valuation and good performance in the US and Japanese markets [17] - **New Tobacco Industry**: The harm - reduction of new tobacco is better than traditional tobacco. The new product Glo Hilo of Smoore International is expected to reshape the global HNB competition pattern [21][28]