太阳纸业（002078）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 24 年业绩符合预期，看好 25 年产能爬坡 目标价：18.6 元 事项： 公司公布 2024 年报。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 407.3 亿元，同比+3.0%， 归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 31.0/32.3 亿元，同比+0.5%/+6.9%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元，对应分红率 27.0%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 40,727 | 43,322 | 46,679 | 49,751 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,101 | 3,617 | 4,007 | 4,393 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 16.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.11 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.57 | | 市盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve strong performance in 2024, with profitability likely to accelerate in 2025 due to seasonal demand and operational improvements [1] Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, projecting EPS of 1.26, 1.38, and 1.47 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [2] - The target price has been raised to 18.87 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, based on a 15X PE valuation for 2025 [2] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of 3.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] Group 2: Operational Performance - The company demonstrated resilience in Q4 2024, achieving a revenue of 9.75 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 5.7%, with net profit down 32.3% [2] - The overall industry faced pressure in Q4 2024, but the company performed well due to improved profitability in cultural paper [2] - The company is expected to see continued profitability in Q1 2025 as cultural paper enters the sales peak season, supported by rising pulp prices and inventory consumption [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on a vertically integrated model, enhancing its cost advantages through strategic management and resource acquisition [3] - The company is expanding its forest land in Laos, which is expected to strengthen its resource moat amid rising wood chip prices [3] - The company is gradually building a competitive edge in the paper manufacturing sector by optimizing its product structure and leveraging low-cost inventory [3]

盈利预测与评级：我们看好公司林浆纸一体化优势显著，产能逐步释放、山东、广西、老挝三大基地协 同发展，产品结构多元、盈利能力稳健，预计2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为36.1 亿元、40.2 亿元、 42.7 亿元，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；原材料价格波动；项目建设进度不及预期；行业竞争加剧等。 2025 年，公司多个成品纸及纸浆项目将陆续落地。山东基地颜店厂区3.7万吨特种纸基新材料项目，山 东基地兖州厂区溶解浆生产线搬迁改造项目，广西基地南宁园区一期高档包装纸生产线，南宁园区二期 40 万吨特种纸生产线、年产35 万吨漂白化学木浆生产线、年产15 万吨机械木浆生产线及相关配套设 施，南宁园区生活用纸二期项目4 条生活用纸生产线均将按照项目建设进度在2025 年度陆续进入试产、 投产阶段。 林浆纸一体化深化，全产业链深度拓展，成本端效益有望逐步体现。在"四三三"战略引领下，公司逐步 构建了山东、广西、老挝三大产业基地。山东基地聚焦高端、高质、高附加值的特种纸新材料项目；老 挝基地2023 年起林地种植迈入快车道，短期内计划每年新增1 万公顷以上的林地种植面积；2025 年 末，随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant profit improvement in the first half of 2025, driven by stabilizing cultural paper prices and the completion of new production capacities [4]. - The integrated advantages of forestry, pulp, and paper production are becoming increasingly prominent, with the company’s plantation area reaching 60,000 hectares by the end of 2023, which will further enhance cost advantages [4]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward, estimating net profits for 2025-2027 to be 34.3 billion, 39.2 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 10X, and 9X [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, and a net profit of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s paper product sales reached 7.51 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.76% [4]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including revenue growth rates of 3% for 2024, 6% for 2025, and 8% for 2026 [6]. Production Capacity and Projects - New production capacities are set to come online, including a special paper project and upgrades to the dissolving pulp production line, which are expected to enhance output and profitability [4]. - The company has several projects in the pipeline, including a 14,000-ton special paper project and a packaging paper project, both expected to enter trial production in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]

废纸系：2024H2 公司箱板纸实现收入57.29 亿元（同比+9.2%），毛利率为15.8%（（ 环比+1.2pct）。 24Q4 箱板纸/瓦楞纸环比分别+1.1%/5.2%，国废均价环比+3.8%，废纸系旺季提价顺利落地，整体盈利 平稳改善。25Q1 箱板/瓦楞均价环比仍+1.5%/2.7%，尽管高价原材料入库驱动成本提升，但我们预计整 体盈利仍有望保持平稳。此外，中美贸易冲突背景下，公司高档牛卡有望加速国产替代，整体废纸价格 仍有改善预期。 南宁项目稳步推进，林浆纸一体化可期。2024 年底公司合计产能已突破 1200万吨，其中浆、纸产能分 别合计达 500 万吨和 729 万吨。展望未来，公司预计1）山东基地：颜店3.7 万吨特种纸25 年4 月试产， 14 万吨特纸项目二期26H1 试产，兖州溶解浆产线搬迁25Q2 落地。2）广西基地：南宁PM11 和PM12 （高档包装纸纸）、15 万吨生活用纸项目均25Q4 试产；特种纸40 万吨、化学浆35 万吨、化机浆15 万 吨产线及相关配套措亦有望在25Q4 落地。此外，公司加速推进老挝林地种植（短期内公司预计每年新 增1 万公顷+林地种植面积），同时已 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 40.73 billion yuan (up 3.0% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.10 billion yuan (up 0.5% year-on-year) [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.75 billion yuan (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 642 million yuan (down 32.3% year-on-year), indicating a challenging quarter [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by rising pulp prices and improved cost management [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.10 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 14.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage point [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.61 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.4X, and 8.6X [5][6] Segment Performance - In the wood pulp segment, the company reported revenues of 5.98 billion yuan for non-coated cultural paper and 2.01 billion yuan for coated paper in H2 2024, with respective year-on-year changes of -11.6% and +4.4% [2] - The waste paper segment saw revenues of 5.73 billion yuan for boxboard paper in H2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3] - The company is advancing its integrated pulp and paper projects, with total capacity expected to exceed 12 million tons by the end of 2024 [4] Future Outlook - The company is set to trial production for several projects in 2025, including specialty paper and chemical pulp lines, which are expected to enhance production capacity [4] - The report highlights a stable cash flow and operational efficiency, with operating cash flow for Q4 2024 at 2.69 billion yuan, an increase of 1.72 billion yuan year-on-year [5]

| 市场数据 | 2025-4-10 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002078.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 14.00 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 279,454 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 276,488 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 387.08 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 太阳纸业 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 主要财务指标预测 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流动资产 | 12,762 | 14,314 | 17,734 | 21,221 | | 现金 | 3,234 | 4,07 ...

投资建议：上调盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 优于大市 2024 年年报点评： 四季度盈利短期承压，期待产能释放驱动增长 四季度收入略降，利润短期承压，符合业绩预告。2024 年公司实现收入 407.3 亿/+2.99%，归母净利润 31.0 亿/+0.50%，扣非归母净利润 32.3 亿/+6.88%； 其中 2024Q4 实现收入 97.5 亿/-5.71%，归母净利润 6.4 亿/-32.31%，扣非 归母净利润 6.4 亿/-31.62%。2024 年收入微增主要系产能释放带来的销量增 加，全年纸制品销量同比+12.8%；利润受木浆成本波动影响，同时广西六景 全年固定资产清理减少利润约 1.92 亿，其中 2024Q4 影响约 968.1 万。2024 年拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元，分红率 27%。 Q4 文纸盈利承压、箱板纸受益于旺季提价盈利小幅改善。分产品看，2024H2 非涂布文化纸、牛皮箱板纸与溶解浆收入同比-11.6%/+9.2%/+32.2%，毛利 率为 7.9%/15.8%/27.0%，分别较 2024H ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed financial performance for 2024, with a slight increase in annual revenue but a decline in quarterly revenue and net profit, indicating challenges in the market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company generated revenue of 9.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit of 640 million, down 32% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 40.73 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 3.1 billion, up 1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 16.0%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points [2]. Market and Product Insights - The company is focusing on cultivating new productive forces and promoting high-quality sustainable development amidst a challenging market environment [2]. - The revenue from cultural paper in 2024 was 13 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, while the revenue from coated paper was 4.13 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year [2]. - The price of double glue paper and coated paper has increased by approximately 150 and 300 yuan per ton, respectively, since the beginning of 2025 [2]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has established three major production bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, enhancing its capacity and cost advantages through a "forest-pulp-paper integration" strategy [4]. - Significant projects are set to commence in 2025, including a new specialty paper project and upgrades to existing production lines, which are expected to enter trial production and operation stages throughout the year [4]. - The company plans to increase its planted area in Laos by over 10,000 hectares annually, which is anticipated to further strengthen its cost advantages [4]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.78 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11X, 9X, and 8X, indicating a favorable long-term outlook [5].