（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月18日，多氟多盘中跌停，跌幅9.99%，成交额超81亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The company, 多氟多, experienced a significant decline in stock price, hitting the daily limit down with a drop of 9.99% [1] - The trading volume for the company exceeded 8.1 billion yuan, indicating high market activity despite the price drop [1]

Group 1 - The stock of DLF (多氟多) fell by 5.29% on November 18, closing at 38.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.062 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.83%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 45.832 billion CNY [1] - DLF specializes in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electronic chemicals, lithium-ion batteries, new energy vehicles, and inorganic fluorides, with revenue composition as follows: new energy materials 34.97%, fluorine-based new materials 30.39%, new energy batteries 25.30%, electronic information materials 5.55%, and others 3.80% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Jiao Yin Asset Management holds a significant position in DLF. The fund "Jiao Yin An Xiang Stable Pension One Year A" (交银安享稳健养老一年A) held 159,300 shares, accounting for 0.15% of the fund's net value, making it the largest holding [2] - The fund "Jiao Yin An Xiang Stable Pension One Year A" was established on May 30, 2019, with a current scale of 2.13 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 6.64%, ranking 812 out of 1,040 in its category; one-year returns are 7.05%, ranking 759 out of 1,018; and since inception, the return is 28.08% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical sector has experienced a short-term decline, with multiple companies showing significant drops in stock prices, particularly Duofu Du, which fell over 5% [1] Company Performance - Duofu Du's stock price decreased by more than 5% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, Weihua New Materials, Yongtai Technology, and Yonghe Co., also saw declines in their stock prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The battery materials sector, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, is experiencing a significant market upturn, comparable to the storage chip market, driven by rising prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2] Part 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - After four years of stagnation, the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry is seeing a positive shift, with supply expected to grow by 9% year-on-year in FY2026, while demand is projected to increase by 31%, primarily due to a 45% growth in energy storage battery demand [3] Part 2: Industry Trends - The overall operating rate for the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry is expected to rise to 81% in FY2026, up from 51% in FY2024 and 68% in FY2025 [4] - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is forecasted to reach 100,000 yuan per ton in FY2026, a 48% increase from 67,500 yuan per ton in FY2025 [4] - Market concentration is anticipated to increase, with the top five companies expected to hold a 75% market share by FY2028, up from 68% in FY2024 [4] Part 3: Market Concerns - The visibility of improved supply and demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate is high, with a convincing rationale [5] - Concerns regarding the potential impact of solid-state batteries on the demand for electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate are noted, but large-scale commercialization of solid-state batteries is not expected to exert significant pressure on industry demand in the short term [5] Company Analysis: Leading Firms - **Dofluorid**: - Positioned as the second-largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate globally, with nominal capacity expected to reach 65,000 tons per year by the end of 2024 [7] - Plans to shift its battery strategy from square to cylindrical batteries, aiming for 120 GWh capacity by 2027, with a focus on household energy storage and two-wheeler battery replacement [7] - **Tinci Materials**: - The global leader in electrolytes, with a projected nominal capacity of 1.3 million tons per year by 2025 and a market share of 30% [8] - Expected to increase its lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity to 110,000 tons per year by 2025, with a significant rise in operating rates from 60% in 2024 to 90% in 2026 [8] - A potential net profit increase of approximately 4% is anticipated for every 1,000 yuan per ton increase in processing fees or average selling prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate [8]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a rapid price increase, with prices rising from approximately 49,300 yuan/ton in July to over 150,000 yuan/ton by November 17, marking an increase of over 200% in just four months [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, with previous industry adjustments leading to a significant drop in prices to around 47,000 yuan/ton, causing many small and medium enterprises to halt production due to losses [2]. - The demand side is driven by a "rush to install" in the energy storage sector, with lithium battery shipments in China reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters of this year, exceeding the total for 2024 [2]. - New production capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate is constrained by long expansion cycles and stringent approvals, leading to insufficient supply to meet the surging demand [2]. Profitability and Market Positioning - The rising price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which constitutes 40% to 50% of the total cost of electrolyte solutions, is leading to a divergence in profitability within the electrolyte industry [3]. - Companies with integrated supply capabilities, such as Tianqi Materials, are benefiting from cost advantages, while those reliant on external sourcing face high procurement costs [3]. - Tianqi Materials reported a revenue of 3.814 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.75%, with a net profit of 153 million yuan, up 51.53% [3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is generally bullish in the short term, with expectations that the supply-demand tightness will persist at least until mid-2026, keeping prices in the range of 80,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Downstream battery manufacturers are proactively securing long-term supply agreements with electrolyte suppliers, with Tianqi Materials announcing contracts for a total supply of 1.595 million tons from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - Analysts suggest that the rapid price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate indicates a tightening supply-demand balance, signaling the potential onset of a price increase cycle for the industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, previously labeled as "big and clumsy," is experiencing a resurgence, driven by supply-demand balance and technological advancements, positioning it as a high-growth sector worth 4 trillion yuan [5][10]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Since September, the chemical sector index has surged over 60%, primarily due to price increases in battery chemicals [3]. - The industry has shifted from chaotic overcapacity to a more balanced supply-demand structure, aided by policy changes and strategic industry actions [6][9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "14th Five-Year Plan" has curtailed blind capacity expansion, reducing industry capacity growth from double digits to below 7% [9]. - Key resources like phosphate rock and fluorite are in tight supply, with demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles and energy storage expected to drive material demand growth over 50% by 2024 [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the chemical sector has evolved from merely increasing production capacity to focusing on high-value-added products and technological advancements [11]. - Leading companies are investing significantly in fine chemicals and emerging materials, with over 30% of Wanhua Chemical's 25.24 billion yuan investment directed towards these areas [11]. - China's chemical industry has achieved over 60% global market share in basic and fine chemicals, enhancing its pricing power internationally [12]. Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is undergoing a strategic revaluation, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation recovery, particularly as the global chemical export demand is projected to grow by 8%-10% by 2026 [13][10]. - Key investment themes include supply contraction, high-end product development, and green transformation, with a focus on companies that can manage supply-demand dynamics and possess strong technological barriers [14][15]. - The global chemical market is expected to exceed $5.2 trillion by 2030, with China's market reaching $1.9 trillion, indicating significant growth potential [17]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is transitioning from a low-end, overcapacity model to a global leader in high-value products, driven by technological innovation and strategic resource management [16][18].

Market Overview - As of November 17, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 points, down 18.46 points, a decrease of 0.46% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.00 points, down 14.03 points, a decrease of 0.11% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3105.20 points, down 6.30 points, a decrease of 0.20% [1] Stock Performance - A total of 85 A-shares had a turnover rate exceeding 20% on this day, with Northern Long Dragon achieving a turnover rate of over 50% [1] - The top stocks by turnover rate included: - Northern Long Dragon (301357) with a closing price of 175.77 CNY and a turnover rate of 55.11%, increasing by 19.57% [1] - Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589) with a closing price of 16.31 CNY and a turnover rate of 45.88%, increasing by 20.01% [1] - Sanmu Group (000632) with a closing price of 8.75 CNY and a turnover rate of 45.14%, increasing by 10.06% [1] - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical (300497) with a closing price of 21.15 CNY and a turnover rate of 42.80%, increasing by 12.14% [1] - Guqi Wool Material (001390) with a closing price of 27.52 CNY and a turnover rate of 42.58%, decreasing by 9.62% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks with high turnover rates included: - Antai Group (600408) with a turnover rate of 41.06% and a price increase of 10.06% [1] - Qing Shui Yuan (300437) with a turnover rate of 40.77% and a price increase of 14.09% [1] - Kelong Co., Ltd. (300405) with a turnover rate of 40.63% and a price increase of 16.92% [1] - Zhongneng Electric (300062) with a turnover rate of 39.62% and a price decrease of 3.79% [1] - Danna Biotechnology (920009) with a turnover rate of 38.68% and a price increase of 1.28% [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call centers on the electrolyte/LiPF6 sector within the battery materials industry, particularly in China. - **Market Dynamics**: After a four-year downturn, the market is expected to shift back to a tight balance by the second half of 2026, driven by supply discipline and resilient battery demand, especially in energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2][11]. Key Insights Supply and Demand Projections - **Supply Growth**: Estimated supply growth for LiPF6 is projected at 9% year-over-year (YoY) for FY26, with major new capacity expected to come online in the second half of 2026 [2][11]. - **Demand Growth**: Demand for LiPF6 is anticipated to grow by 31% YoY in FY26, with ESS battery demand expected to rise by 45% YoY [2][44]. - **Utilization Rates**: Utilization rates are expected to increase to 81% in 2026, up from 51% in 2024 [3][12][48]. Price Dynamics - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: The average selling price of LiPF6 is projected to reach Rmb100,000 per ton in 2026, representing a 48% increase from Rmb67,500 per ton in 2025 [3][52]. - **Price Recovery**: Recent price increases have been noted, with spot prices rising from Rmb63,000 per ton before the Golden Week to over Rmb100,000 per ton [12][51][76]. Market Structure - **Concentration of Market**: The market is expected to become more concentrated, with the top five producers (CR5) projected to control 75% of the market by 2028, up from 68% in 2024 [3][57][59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: Leading players like Tinci Materials and Do-Fluoride are expected to expand their capacities, with Tinci planning to add 35ktpa in 2H26 and Do-Fluoride adding 20ktpa by FY27 [57][94]. Investment Recommendations - **Stock Coverage Initiation**: Coverage has been initiated on Tinci Materials (Buy, target price Rmb62) and Do-Fluoride (Buy, target price Rmb45), with Tinci preferred due to its cost competitiveness and market share growth [5][13]. - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include weaker battery demand, cost inflation, and the potential commercialization of solid-state batteries, which could impact electrolyte demand [5][63][64]. Market Concerns and Debates - **Solid-State Battery Impact**: The potential commercialization of solid-state batteries poses a long-term risk to LiPF6 demand, although mass production is not expected soon [4][72]. - **Demand Sustainability**: There are varying expectations regarding the sustainability of ESS battery demand, with forecasts ranging from 20% to 60% YoY growth [65][69]. Conclusion - The electrolyte/LiPF6 market is poised for recovery, with significant growth in both supply and demand anticipated through 2026. The investment outlook is positive for leading companies in the sector, although risks related to demand fluctuations and technological advancements must be monitored closely.

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials sector, particularly electrolyte materials, has become a focal point of market attention due to significant price increases and rising demand driven by long-term contracts and supply shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - On November 12, the price of vinyl carbonate (VC) surged by 14.81%, leading the price increases in the lithium battery materials sector [1]. - The Wind electrolyte sector saw a daily increase of 10.41% on November 13, with lithium battery stocks dominating the top performers [1]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) rose sharply from approximately 61,000 CNY/ton at the end of September to 107,500 CNY/ton by the end of October, marking a monthly increase of 76% [7][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicates that some electrolyte and battery manufacturers have depleted their VC inventories, leading to a demand surge for replenishment [2]. - Major companies like Tianqi Materials have signed long-term supply contracts, securing significant sales volumes for the coming years [11][12]. - The concentration of LiPF6 production capacity among a few companies (60% held by Tianqi Materials, Molybdenum, and Tianji) has heightened market expectations for price increases due to limited new capacity [9]. Group 3: Investment Outlook and Earnings Projections - Investment institutions have significantly raised their earnings forecasts for companies in the sector, with Tianqi Materials' 2026 profit estimate increased by 234% to 5.179 billion CNY [2][14]. - The Wind lithium battery electrolyte index has approached its 2021 cycle peak following the price increases in November [2][26]. - Despite the stock price surges, the overall supply-demand balance in the electrolyte sector has not yet returned to the levels seen in 2021 and 2022, indicating potential volatility in future earnings [24][29]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - From November 1 to November 13, the average stock price increase for companies in the Wind electrolyte sector was 43.76%, with some companies like Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source seeing increases of 149.53% and 90.95%, respectively [20][22]. - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for continued price increases in related materials, although the stock valuations may be high relative to current earnings [28][29].