Market Overview - A-shares showed resilience against external market pressures, with major indices recovering after a low opening, resulting in the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.40 points (0.11%) to 4080.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 90.46 points (0.65%) to 14043.17 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 21.17 points (0.65%) to 3281.45 points [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Cangzhou Dahua, Jinniu Chemical, Baichuan Co., and Baihehua hitting the daily limit [1] - The humanoid robot concept stocks were active, with companies such as Wuzhou Xinchun, Liancheng Precision, and Tianqi Co. also reaching the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of recovery, with Hunan Gold and Xianglu Tungsten hitting the daily limit [1] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector opened strong, with stocks like Te Yi Pharmaceutical reaching the daily limit [1] Policy Support - The Chinese government, through the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, issued a development plan for the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming for a collaborative development system by 2030, which is expected to boost the sector's growth [2] Price Dynamics - The price of disperse dyes surged due to a significant increase in the cost of upstream key intermediates, rising from 25,000 yuan/ton to 38,000 yuan/ton, a more than 50% increase, which is expected to drive up prices in the textile dyeing industry as demand increases post-Spring Festival [3] Market Challenges - The liquor sector faced downward pressure, with stocks like Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down, attributed to a decline in demand following the consumption peak around the Spring Festival and increased competition leading to price cuts [4] - AI application stocks experienced declines, with companies like Yaowang Technology and Zhejiang Wenhu falling to the daily limit due to concerns over technology maturity and unclear business models [5] - The optical module and CPO sectors continued to adjust, with stocks like Yuanjie Technology and Xinyisheng dropping over 6% as market expectations normalized [6] Institutional Insights - Zhongjin Securities noted that despite external pressures, there are no typical bull market top signals in Chinese stocks, with ample liquidity and improving earnings, suggesting a continued positive outlook for Chinese asset revaluation [7] - Tianfeng Securities highlighted the fragility of market sentiment, indicating that any news could trigger short-term sell-offs, particularly in the gold market [7] - Huachuang Securities observed a strong recovery in consumer markets expected for the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by government-led consumption initiatives, suggesting potential growth in sectors like dining, tourism, and retail [7]

Group 1 - The dispersed dye concept saw a counter-trend surge on February 6, with Lunyu Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Jinjis Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Baihehua, Jianxin Co., and Cuhua Co., also experienced gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lunyu Co., Ltd. (SZ002440) experienced a limit-up on February 6, 2026, with a price of 13.21 yuan, marking a 9.16% increase, driven by significant earnings growth, industry chain advantages, and institutional interest [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth - The company anticipates a substantial increase in its 2025 earnings, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow by 181%-228% and non-recurring net profit projected to rise by 27%-74% [1] - In the first three quarters, the company's net profit increased by 49.10% year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Advantages - Lunyu has established a complete industry chain from thermal power and steam to intermediates and dyes, with an annual production capacity of 8,000 tons of reducing agents, most of which is self-used, showcasing strong cost control and supply chain stability [1] - The price of disperse dye black has increased by 3,000 yuan per ton in response to rising raw material costs, enhancing the company's pricing power [1] Group 3: Institutional Interest - Several well-known institutions, including CITIC Securities, have participated in research on the company, indicating high institutional interest and attracting market funds [1] - On February 6, the chemical products sector saw some stocks become active, creating a certain degree of sector linkage effect [1] Group 4: Technical Factors - The stock was included in the "Dragon and Tiger List" on February 5, with a trading volume of 2.48 billion yuan, indicating participation from both retail and institutional investors, which may have contributed to the stock's limit-up on February 6 [1]

Group 1 - The company, Runtou Co., announced that it will hold an investor meeting on February 5, 2026, from 16:00 to 17:10, where the Deputy General Manager and Board Secretary, Liu Boping, along with the Securities Affairs Representative, Jiao Dawei, will participate in the reception and answer questions from investors [1] - The meeting will include participation from E Fund Management and other investors, indicating a focus on engaging with key stakeholders in the investment community [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the issue of elderly individuals living alone, with millions affected, and discusses the concept of intended guardianship, which has been present in the country for 14 years but still faces challenges in full implementation [1] - The need for solutions to support the aging population is emphasized, suggesting potential opportunities for companies involved in elder care and related services [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer, trader, and consumer of dyes, accounting for approximately 70%-75% of global dye production [1] - Major dye production regions in China include Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, with a high industry concentration [1] - The dye industry is characterized by intense competition, with increasing production capacity both domestically and internationally [2] Group 2: Company Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million to 700 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 181.05%-227.89% [2] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 270 million and 370 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26.75%-73.70% [2] Group 3: Raw Material Pricing and Production - The price of reducing agents, a key raw material for disperse dyes, has been low but has started to rise, currently quoted at around 50,000 yuan per ton [2] - The price of disperse dyes has increased by approximately 3,000 yuan per ton due to rising raw material costs [2] - The company's annual production capacity for reducing agents is about 8,000 tons, primarily for self-use in supporting disperse dye production [2] Group 4: Supply Chain Strategy - The company implements a "backward integration" strategy to extend its supply chain, achieving significant results in securing raw material supply [2] - The dye production system has been established to include a complete supply chain from thermal power, steam, chlorine, caustic soda, to intermediates and dyes [2]

Group 1 - The company, Runtong Co., Ltd. (002440), reported that as of January 30, 2026, the number of its shareholders reached 67,370 households [1]

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in the pattern of disperse dye intermediates is expected to drive up disperse dye prices, while the supply tightening of H-acid, an active dye intermediate, may also lead to potential price increases. The price increase expectations for these two types of dyes have been gradually confirmed by leading companies' price hikes, with a positive outlook for a long-term bullish market driven by environmental and dual-carbon policies in China [1]. Industry Restructuring - China is the largest dye producer globally, but the dye industry is highly polluting, generating significant wastewater. The tightening of environmental regulations has led to the exit of non-compliant small enterprises, resulting in a higher industry concentration. The concentration ratio (CR4) for disperse dyes is 67.2%, and for active dyes, it is 65.3%, indicating a well-established industry reshuffle [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines to expand zero-carbon factory construction to various sectors, including textiles, which may tighten carbon emission requirements in the dyeing industry [1]. Intermediate Supply Dynamics - The production of disperse dye intermediates involves complex processes that generate substantial waste, leading to a concentrated supply among compliant enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. The supply elasticity is low due to the closure of many non-compliant small factories [2]. - The effective capacity of H-acid has fallen below 60,000 tons, with a supply gap exceeding 10%. Recent maintenance by two major H-acid manufacturers may further reduce effective capacity by over 25% [2]. Price Elasticity and Market Comparison - The current situation of intermediates in the dye industry is likened to the relationship between citral and VA, characterized by complex synthesis processes and high concentration among leading firms. The cost of intermediates constitutes a significant portion of the production costs for dyes, which may lead to effective cost transmission [3]. - Historical data shows that disperse dye prices reached a high of 45,000 yuan/ton in 2015 and 19,000 yuan/ton currently, while active dye prices peaked at 33,000 yuan/ton in 2016 and are now at 23,000 yuan/ton, indicating substantial upward price potential [3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include RunTu Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jihua Group, Jinji Co., Annuoqi, Yabang Co., Fulaient, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market dynamics and integrated advantages [3].

☎ 染料中间体价格跳涨，产业链景气度迎来爆发！ 事件：据闰土股份最新投关记录显示，关键中间体"还原物"价格自1月下旬启动上涨，并已涨至3.8万元/吨，直 接带动了分散染料产品价格的上行。 核心受益标的： 核心受益标的： 【华尔泰】：公司产品均为用途广泛的新材料产业和有机化工中间体主要用于芳纶、偶氮染料、硫化染料、酸性 染料等，前两大客户分别为广信股份、万华化学。 【广信股份】：公司主要中间体产品为光气化中间体和精细化工中间体，下游用于主要是农药、医药和染料等领 域。 【闰土股份】：公司主要从事纺织染料、印染助剂和化工原料的研发、生产和销售。 【华尔泰】：公司产品均为用途广泛的新材料产业和有机化工中间体主要用于芳纶、偶氮染料、硫化染料、酸性 染料等，前两大客户分别为广信股份、万华化学。 ☎ 染料中间体价格跳涨，产业链景气度迎来爆发！ 事件：据闰土股份最新投关记录显示，关键中间体"还原物"价格自1月下旬启动上涨，并已涨至3.8万元/吨，直 接带动了分散染料产品价格的上行。 ...

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Indices Performance - The oil indices showed an overall increase, with all three oil indices rising, while all four chemical indices experienced declines [1] - The chemical raw materials index fell by 1.98%, the chemical machinery index decreased by 1.73%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index dropped by 3.11%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index declined by 2.06% [1] - In contrast, the oil processing index increased by 4.01%, the oil extraction index rose by 12.08%, and the oil trading index went up by 5.87% [1] Group 2: International Oil Prices - International crude oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI crude oil futures settling at $65.21 per barrel, up 6.78% from January 23 [1] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, reflecting a 7.30% increase from January 23 [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases included octanol (up 8.42%), adipic acid (up 7.95%), carbon black (up 7.94%), Brent (up 7.30%), and butadiene (up 6.98%) [1] - The five petrochemical products with the largest price declines were hydrogen peroxide (down 7.66%), lithium battery electrolyte (down 7.04%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (down 5.91%), paraquat 42% mother liquor (down 5.56%), and hydrochloric acid (down 3.70%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Listed Chemical Companies - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Tongyuan Petroleum (up 63.03%), Sidike (up 60.03%), Runtu Co. (up 34.08%), Qianeng Hengxin (up 33.43%), and Sinopec Oilfield Service (up 29.66%) [2] - The five listed chemical companies with the largest stock price declines included Gaomeng New Materials (down 21.06%), Guofeng New Materials (down 19.37%), Jianghua Micro (down 19.01%), Lafang Jiahua (down 18.74%), and Shuangwei New Materials (down 16.26%) [2]

抓住化工涨价行情系列之一——染料 20260130 摘要 还原物市场供应紧张是染料涨价主因，主要生产商包括宁夏中胜新、龙 胜和闰土，但实际产能未完全释放，开工率不足 80%，导致市场对涨价 预期强烈。 博奥股份因库存不足率先提价并停产，加剧市场供应紧张，推动整体价 格上涨。龙胜、闰土等企业随后跟进涨价，头部企业协调一致或将进一 步推高市场价格。 分散染料市场中，龙胜侧重环保及高牢度产品，常规品盈利困难；润土 产能与龙胜相当，吉华较小；中圣新通过收购增加成品产能至约 2 万吨。 下游客户对当前染料涨价接受度尚可，因前期备货不足，只能接受新价 格。染厂库存普遍较低，多为即时调货，小幅涨价仍可承受。 H 酸等原材料也在涨价，部分大厂提前停产检修，可能与市场调控有关。 企业通过调整产量和价格应对市场需求变化，H 酸价格上涨若能维持， 成交价有望达到每吨 3.5 万元。 中盛新与龙胜存在竞争关系，曾导致分散染料价格下降。若两家公司达 成一致，分散染料价格或大幅上涨，头部企业的态度是未来涨价的重要 驱动因素。 还原物扩产困难，现有工艺存在能耗高、收率低等问题，且新增产能难 以获批。龙胜还原物基本自给自足，中盛新产能是龙胜 ...