%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨珠江啤酒（ ） 002461.SZ [珠Ta江b啤le_酒Ti2tl0e2] 3 年度年报点评：产品升级延续， 成本改善将启 报告要点 [珠Ta江bl啤e_酒Su2m0m23ar年y]实现营业总收入53.78亿元（+9.13%），归母净利润6.24亿元（+4.22%）， 扣非净利润5.57亿元（+4.63%）。单看2023Q4，公司实现营业总收入8.27亿元（+1.16%）， 归母净利润-1993.37万元，扣非净利润-4678.14万元。 ...

广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司关于变更保荐代表人的公告 本公司及其董事、监事、高级管理人员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，公告不存在虚 假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2024-014 附：李想先生简历 李想先生，保荐代表人，现任中信证券投资银行委员会总监，曾任中信证券股份有限公 司高级经理、副总裁、高级副总裁，曾负责或参与了菜百黄金 A 股 IPO、伊利股份 2021 年 非公开发行、珠江啤酒 2017 年非公开发行、隆平高科 2015 年非公开发行、2015 年苏宁云 商非公开发行、中国软件非公开发行、全聚德 2014 年非公开发行等项目。 特此公告。 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 4 月 8 日 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）为广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）2017 年非公开发行股票（以下简称"非公开发行"）项目的保荐机构，原 保荐代表人为唐亮、计玲玲。 近日，公司收到中信证券出具的《关于更换保荐代表人的函》，因工作安排调整，计玲 玲不再担任持续督导保荐代表人，为保证持续督导工作的有序进行，中信证券现委派李想接 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 03月 29日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 7.81元 珠江啤酒（002461） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 高端化升级延续，全年实现量价齐升 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023年年报，全年实现收入 53.8亿元，同比+9.1%，实现归 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 母净利润6.2亿元，同比+4.2%，实现扣非归母净利润5.6亿元，同比+4.6%； 其中 23Q4实现收入 8.3亿元，同比+1.2%，归母净利润为-0.2亿元，去年同期 执业证号：S1250513110001 电话：023-63786049 为 0.3亿元，公司业绩符合此前业绩快报；同时，公司拟向全体股东每10股派 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 发现金红利1.25元（含税）。 分析师：舒尚立  高端化升级延续，全年实现量价齐升。量方面，23年公司实现销量140.3万吨， 同比增长4.8%；其中 23Q4实现销量25.3万吨，同比+4%；23年全国啤酒产 执业证号：S125052 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery, expecting its total return to exceed the relevant market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][12][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.38 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, up only 4.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 830 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was negative at -20 million yuan [12][13]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 5.82 billion yuan, 6.29 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 730 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 870 million yuan for the same years. The corresponding EPS is forecasted at 0.33 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.39 yuan [12][13]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial indicators for 2023 include: - Revenue: 5,378 million yuan - Net profit: 620 million yuan - EPS: 0.28 yuan - Gross margin: 42.8% - Net profit margin: 11.6% [11][12]. - The projected financial indicators for 2024 include: - Revenue: 5,823 million yuan - Net profit: 730 million yuan - EPS: 0.33 yuan - Gross margin: 43.8% - Net profit margin: 12.5% [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The average valuation of comparable companies in 2024 is estimated at a P/E ratio of 23x. Given the recent downward trend in the beer sector, the company is assigned a P/E of 27x for 2024, leading to a target price of 9 yuan [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.378 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 624 million yuan, up 4.22% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's sales volume reached 1.4028 million kiloliters, an increase of 4.79% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [2]. - The product structure continues to improve, with high-end products seeing a revenue increase of 15.12% year-on-year, contributing to a stable increase in average price per ton [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved barley procurement prices in 2024, enhancing profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 5.378 billion yuan and a net profit of 624 million yuan. The fourth quarter saw revenue of 827 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.16% year-on-year, but a net loss of 20 million yuan [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 42.82%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved pricing [2][7]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s sales channels showed positive growth, with revenue from supermarkets increasing by 38.51% and from e-commerce by 17.74% [2]. - The core market in South China saw a revenue increase of 10.5%, while other regions experienced a decline of 12.2% [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.819 billion yuan, 6.244 billion yuan, and 6.643 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.2%, 7.3%, and 6.4% [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 741 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 18.8% [3][7].

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2024 年03月 29 日 珠江啤酒 (002461) 公 司 研 究 ——南起珠江 深耕华南 / 公 司 深 报告原因：首次覆盖 度 中性 投资要点： （首次评级）  南起珠江，深耕华南。珠江啤酒成立于 1985年，凭借啤酒品质与地方文化认同，在华南 市场具备强竞争力。公司由国资委+啤酒巨头百威英博长期稳定控股，具备国际经验和本 证 市场数据： 2024年03月28日 土化优势，经历起步-扩张-调整-转型升级四个发展阶段。去年来伴随消费场景恢复，高端 券 研 收盘价（元） 7.81 策略+产品提价支撑下，珠江啤酒实现收入增长，经营效率逐步改善，盈利受原料成本端 究 一年内最高/最低（元） 9.65/6.6 挤压。23年公司实现营业收入53.78亿，同增9%，销量140.28万吨，同增4.8%，归母 报 市净率 1.7 告 息率（分红/股价） - 净利润6.25亿，同增4.22%。 流通A股市值（百万元） 17286  区域性啤酒企业高端化：次高端单品全国化为主要驱动力。我国啤酒行业正处于量减价增 上证指数/深证成指 3010.66/9342.92 的变动期，酒企具备两种价格实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 624 million, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report highlights that the beer industry is undergoing structural upgrades, and the company is expected to continue benefiting from its "3+N" brand strategy, which focuses on enhancing marketing efforts and product mix [5][6]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.33, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.42, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 12.3% respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Growth**: The company reported a total revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The beer business showed strong performance with volume and price increases of 4.8% and 4.1% respectively [4][5]. - **Profitability**: The net profit margin slightly decreased due to reduced interest income, with the net profit margin for 2023 at 11.6% [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost per ton increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,192, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 42.8% due to product mix upgrades [5][6]. - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 830 million, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. However, it reported a net loss of RMB 20 million due to increased costs and lower prices [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is expected to decrease from 28.9 in 2022 to 18.6 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][5]. - The expected dividend per share remains stable at RMB 0.1 for 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 0.2 by 2025 [4][5].

Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 5,378,040,272.06, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.13% compared to CNY 4,928,137,239.13 in 2022[16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 623,507,931.85, up 4.22% from CNY 598,264,071.35 in the previous year[16]. - The company reported a net profit from operating activities of CNY 819,197,144.35, which is a significant increase of 38.45% compared to CNY 591,695,776.58 in 2022[16]. - The total assets at the end of 2023 were CNY 14,517,943,555.73, reflecting a growth of 4.10% from CNY 13,946,369,705.62 at the end of 2022[16]. - The company sold 1,402,800 tons of beer in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.79%[22]. - The company’s basic earnings per share increased to CNY 0.28, up 3.70% from CNY 0.27 in 2022[16]. - The company received government subsidies amounting to CNY 78,812,266.71 in 2023, slightly higher than CNY 78,159,631.00 in 2022[20]. - The company’s weighted average return on equity was 6.39% in 2023, a slight increase from 6.36% in 2022[16]. - The company reported a cash flow net amount from operating activities of CNY 819,197,144.35, a significant increase compared to CNY 591,695,776.58 in 2022[16]. Market and Competition - The company faces competition risks from both domestic and international large beer enterprises, despite having a strong brand presence in South China[2]. - The company's beer sales market is primarily concentrated in South China, which poses risks to sustainable revenue growth if market expansion is not effectively managed[3]. - The sales volume of high-end beer products increased by 15.96% year-on-year, with e-commerce channel sales growing by 19%[23]. - The company has maintained a leading technological advantage and high product quality in the competitive beer industry, particularly in the South China region[22]. Production and Capacity - The company expanded its production capacity with new lines in Meizhou and Nansha, contributing to a green development strategy that reduced CO2 emissions by approximately 6,300 tons[23]. - The production volume of beer in 2023 was 140.33 tons, up 4.44% from 134.37 tons in 2022[43]. - The company is conducting research on new barley varieties to ensure the quality of beer products and production efficiency[58]. - The company is developing a yeast strain conversion and breeding system to enhance the consistency of craft beer quality[58]. Research and Development - In 2023, the company initiated 73 new research projects and received 9 new invention patents, reflecting its commitment to innovation[24]. - The company aims to reduce the total saccharification time by 10% through its research on precise control and regulation technology for saccharification[52]. - Research and development expenses in 2023 were ¥151,180,885.67, a decrease of 8.88% from ¥165,905,113.42 in 2022[51]. - The company reported a total of 625 R&D personnel in 2023, a decrease of 3.55% from 648 in 2022[53]. Environmental Compliance - The company has a good environmental compliance record but faces risks associated with expanding production and increasing national environmental standards[6]. - The company is classified as a key pollutant discharge unit by environmental protection authorities[115]. - The company adheres to multiple environmental protection laws and standards, including the Environmental Protection Law and the Air Pollution Prevention Law[116]. - The company has implemented various air pollution control systems, including a low-nitrogen burner for gas boiler exhaust treatment and pulse bag dust collectors for raw material dust[132]. Governance and Management - The company maintains independence in personnel, assets, financial management, and operations from its controlling shareholder[78]. - The company has established an independent financial accounting department and a clear accounting system[78]. - The company actively engages with investors through various communication channels, including in-person meetings and online platforms[74]. - The company has a structured approach to decision-making for major investments, adhering to board and shareholder approval processes[78]. Shareholder Information - The total number of shares is 2,213,328,480, representing 100% of the company's equity[168]. - The largest shareholder, Guangzhou Industrial Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., holds 54.15% of the shares, totaling 1,198,493,234 shares[172]. - The second largest shareholder, Interbrew Investment International Holding Limited, owns 29.99% of the shares, amounting to 663,777,210 shares[172]. - The company has not reported any significant changes in shareholding among the board members during the reporting period[82]. Cash Flow and Investments - The company has established a cash flow management strategy that positively impacts its financial stability and operational efficiency[56]. - The total cash inflow from operating activities reached ¥6,249,470,702.89 in 2023, representing a 10.56% increase from ¥5,652,727,391.30 in 2022[56]. - The company reported a total of 10,000,000 yuan in structured deposits from Bank 1, with an annualized return of 2.75% and an actual return of 67.81 million yuan[163]. - The cash inflow from financing activities reached ¥1,988,438,847.31 in 2023, more than double the ¥982,177,997.14 seen in 2022, indicating a growth of approximately 102.5%[199]. Social Responsibility - The company invested CNY 3.36 million in rural revitalization initiatives, demonstrating its commitment to social responsibility[28]. - The company contributed CNY 3.36 million to support poverty alleviation and rural revitalization efforts in various regions[140]. - The company is committed to risk prevention and fulfilling social responsibilities to ensure safety and stability[72].

证 券 2024 年 03 月 29 日 研 究 全年量价齐升，四季度销售结构短期承压 报 告 —珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024年 03 月28 日，珠江啤酒发布 2023年度业绩报告。 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 投资要点 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 ▌全年看量价齐升，高端化趋势明显 2024-03-28 当前股价（元） 7.81 公司 2023 年营收实现 53.78 亿元（+9.13%），归母净利润实 总市值（亿元） 173 现 6.24 亿元（+4.22%）。单四季度看，公司 2023Q4 营收实 现 8.27 亿元（+1.16%），实现平稳增长。拆分量价来看，公 总股本（百万股） 2213 司 2023 年总销量为 140.28 万千升（+4.80%），保持平稳增 流通股本（百万股） 2213 长态势，高档产品销量增长 15.96%，销售结构持续升级，带 52周价格范围（元） 6.79-9.59 动公司 2023 吨价同增 4.13%至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in performance with a revenue of 5.378 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 9.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 624 million yuan, up 4.22% year-over-year [3][4]. - The gross margin improved to 42.82%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 11.96%. Sales and management expense ratios increased marginally [4][11]. - High-end products showed strong performance, with revenue from high-end products reaching 3.426 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 15.12% [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.378 billion yuan, with a net profit of 624 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 557 million yuan [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 827 million yuan, but the net profit was negative at -20 million yuan, indicating a significant decline [3]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2023 was 42.82%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-over-year. However, the net margin decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 11.96% [4]. - The sales expense ratio was 15.19%, and the management expense ratio was 7.44%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [4]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from different channels in 2023 included 4.863 billion yuan from regular products, 135 million yuan from supermarkets, 92 million yuan from night venues, and 59 million yuan from e-commerce, with significant growth in supermarket and e-commerce channels [4]. - The company’s high-end products, primarily pure draft beer and snow fortress beer, accounted for 63.70% of total revenue, with a notable growth rate [4][11]. Regional and Distributor Insights - The company generated 5.110 billion yuan in revenue from the South China region, which constituted 95.02% of total revenue, while other regions saw a decline [4]. - The number of distributors increased by 453, with a net addition of 152 in Guangdong province [4]. Research and Development - In 2023, the company initiated 73 new research projects and received several patents, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement and product innovation [11]. - The company is also investing in green energy projects, contributing to significant carbon dioxide reduction [11]. Profit Forecast and Recommendations - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 715 million yuan, 791 million yuan, and 863 million yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 14.59%, 10.74%, and 9.11% [11].