Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with a revenue of 28.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.46 billion yuan, an increase of 102.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The integrated advantages of the company continue to strengthen, with significant improvements in the profitability of alumina and electrolytic aluminum [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, Tianshan Aluminum produced 1.176 million tons of aluminum ingots, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while alumina production reached 2.279 million tons, up 7.6% year-on-year [2][20]. - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum increased to 3,911 yuan per ton, up 474 yuan per ton year-on-year, and for alumina, it reached 1,016 yuan per ton, up 944 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][20]. 2. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.4% [1][24]. - The main contributors to profit growth in Q4 were the increase in gross profit driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices [24][26]. 3. Future Outlook - The company has completed its integrated layout, achieving self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, which enhances its raw material security and stabilizes performance [3][34]. - Tianshan Aluminum is strategically expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and Guinea, which will further secure resource supply and enhance its competitive position [3][36][37]. 4. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.13 billion yuan, 5.55 billion yuan, and 6.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 6, and 6 [4][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum Industry (002532.SZ) [2][4] Core Views - The company's net profit has doubled due to rising prices of main products, with a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 4.45 billion yuan, an increase of 102.03% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in Q4 2024, with a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, up 141.43% year-on-year [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 23.27%, an increase of 9.17 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 15.86%, an increase of 8.25 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The production of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%, while alumina production was 2.28 million tons, up 7.55% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina was approximately 4,000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [4] Industry Position and Strategy - The company has a significant advantage in its full industry chain development, achieving 100% self-sufficiency in core raw materials such as alumina and prebaked anodes [4] - The company has enhanced its supply chain autonomy with domestic and overseas resource guarantees, including its own bauxite mines in Guangxi and projects in Guinea and Indonesia [4] - The report emphasizes the company's technological advancements in high-purity aluminum production and its strategic partnerships in the downstream processing sector [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is 1.03 yuan for 2025 and 1.22 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.39 and 6.24 times based on the closing price on April 18 [4][5]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The aluminum oxide and bauxite market is currently experiencing a significant structural adjustment, with prices expected to rise in 2024 but potentially decline in 2025 due to increased production capacity in regions like Guangxi and Shanxi [3] - The company anticipates that the overall industry losses will not persist for long, as domestic bauxite supply still heavily relies on imports, which have seen a price decrease compared to last year [3] Group 2: Project Updates - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of three bauxite mines in Indonesia, which will enter the mining phase this year, providing raw materials for future alumina production [4] - The Guangxi bauxite mine has received mining rights and plans to extract approximately 500,000 tons in 2025, with adjustments based on market supply and demand [5] Group 3: Production and Sales - The high-purity aluminum segment is expected to see a 50% year-on-year increase in sales in 2024, with ongoing efforts to develop new customers and reduce existing inventory [4] - The company has an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons for aluminum foil, with plans to ramp up production in 2025 to approximately 150,000 tons [4] Group 4: Financial Strategy - The company aims to reduce its asset-liability ratio by about 5 percentage points in 2024, targeting a stable ratio of around 40% in the coming years [4] - The company commits to distributing at least 30% of its distributable profits as cash dividends to shareholders annually from 2025 to 2027 [4] Group 5: Environmental Goals - The company has set a carbon peak target, aiming for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output and an 18% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit product by the end of 2025, compared to 2021 levels [7] - By 2030, the proportion of renewable energy used in electrolytic aluminum production is expected to reach 30% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Outperform the Market" [4][33] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its full industry chain advantages, with smelting profits being fully released. In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][6] - The increase in profits is primarily due to rising aluminum prices and the complete self-sufficiency in alumina, with alumina sales gross profit reaching 2.12 billion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan year-on-year [1][6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.85 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 41.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 28.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 102% [1][3] - The operating cash flow reached 5.22 billion yuan, an increase of 33.3% [1][6] - The company’s main products saw significant production increases, with electrolytic aluminum production reaching 1.176 million tons, the highest level in recent years, and alumina production increasing to 2.28 million tons, up by 160,000 tons year-on-year [1][6] Product Margins - The selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots in 2024 was 17,493 yuan per ton, an increase of 948 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost was 13,582 yuan per ton, up by 474 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 3,912 yuan per ton, an increase of 474 yuan per ton [2][7] - The selling price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, an increase of 992 yuan per ton year-on-year, with a cost of 2,488 yuan per ton, up by 48 yuan per ton, leading to a gross margin of 1,016 yuan per ton, an increase of 945 yuan per ton [2][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 4.81 billion yuan, 5.70 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 18.5%, and 7.5% [3][33] - The company is also set to enhance its resource security by starting the construction of 240,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity and has obtained mining rights for alumina resources in Guangxi [2][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a 102.03% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by rising alumina prices and production increases [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its full industry chain layout, which mitigates the impact of fluctuating alumina prices [6] - New projects in Guinea and Guangxi are set to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, contributing to future profit growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 280.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 44.55 billion yuan [6] - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60 billion yuan, 64 billion yuan, and 62 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 28.6% in 2025 and 26.0% in 2026 [7] Market Comparison - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -19.93% over the past month [4] - The report highlights the company's resilience in maintaining profitability despite market fluctuations, particularly in the alumina and electrolytic aluminum sectors [6] Production and Capacity - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, a 1% increase year-on-year, and 2.2789 million tons of alumina, a 7.55% increase [6] - New mining projects in Guinea and Guangxi are expected to significantly boost the company's production capacity and resource availability [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 天山铝业(002532.SZ) 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：7.35 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 57% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 天山铝业 沪深300 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) -19.93 -14.53 -15.71 相对涨幅(%) -14.07 -10.95 -14.67 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《天山铝业：量价齐升创佳绩》， 2025.1.22 2.《天山铝业（002532.SZ）：受益于 氧化铝价格走强，24H1 归母实现翻倍 增长》，2024.8.20 天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明显 投资要点 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved significant growth in its annual performance, with a revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 102.03% to 4.455 billion yuan [5] - The company is progressing in its resource layout, with plans for overseas projects in Indonesia and Guinea to enhance its bauxite self-sufficiency and reduce costs [8][9] - The aluminum foil business is also expanding, with production lines ramping up to leverage cost advantages [9] Financial Summary - In 2024, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue is projected at 28.089 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.455 billion yuan, and a significant increase in net profit expected in Q1 2025 to 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2024 to 27.9% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.08 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, suggesting the stock is undervalued [7][9]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-020 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司2024年度利润分配预案的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、审议程序 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月17日召开第六届董事会第十三次会议，以5 票同意、0票反对、0票弃权，审议通过了《关于公司2024年度利润分配预案的议案》；于2025年4月17 日召开第六届监事会第十一次会议，以3票同意、0票反对、0票弃权，审议通过了《关于公司2024年度 利润分配预案的议案》。 本次利润分配方案尚需提交公司2024年年度股东大会审议。 二、利润分配预案的基本情况 （一）本次利润分配预案的基本内容 1、2024年度财务状况 根据中审众环会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）对公司2024年度财务报表的审计结果，公司2024年度合并 报表归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4,455,407,938.46元，根据《公司章程》的规定，提取盈余公积金 328,614,551.77元；截至202 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 18 年 月 日 天山铝业（002532.SZ） 2024 年利润创历史新高，30%高分红承诺凸显长期投资价值 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报业绩预告。2024 年公司实 现收入 280.89 亿元，同比-3%，归母净利 44.55 亿元，同比+102%。分 季度看， 24Q1-Q4 公司实现营收 68/70/70/73 亿元， Q4 同环比 +10%/+4% ； 归 母 净 利 7.2/13.5/10.1/13.7 亿元， Q4 同环比 +141%/+36%；25Q1 预计实现归母净利 10.5 亿元，同环比+46%/-23%。 25Q1 利润环比减少我们判断主要系电解铝和氧化铝价格环比下降所致。 铝产品"量价齐升"24 年利润创历史新高。1）量：2024 年全年电解铝 产量 117.59 万吨，同比增加约 1%；氧化铝产量 227.89 万吨，同比增加 7.55%；公司自发电机组运行良好，全年发电超 138 亿度，同比增加约 2.5%；阳极碳素产量 54.89 万吨，同比减少 8.35%；加工板块方面，高 纯 ...

天山铝业（002532.SZ） 2024 年利润创历史新高，30%高分红承诺凸显长期投资价值 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报业绩预告。2024 年公司实 现收入 280.89 亿元，同比-3%，归母净利 44.55 亿元，同比+102%。分 季度看， 24Q1-Q4 公司实现营收 68/70/70/73 亿元， Q4 同环比 +10%/+4% ； 归 母 净 利 7.2/13.5/10.1/13.7 亿元， Q4 同环比 +141%/+36%；25Q1 预计实现归母净利 10.5 亿元，同环比+46%/-23%。 25Q1 利润环比减少我们判断主要系电解铝和氧化铝价格环比下降所致。 铝产品"量价齐升"24 年利润创历史新高。1）量：2024 年全年电解铝 产量 117.59 万吨，同比增加约 1%；氧化铝产量 227.89 万吨，同比增加 7.55%；公司自发电机组运行良好，全年发电超 138 亿度，同比增加约 2.5%；阳极碳素产量 54.89 万吨，同比减少 8.35%；加工板块方面，高 纯铝产量 2.81 万吨，同比减少 34.35%；铝箔及铝箔坯料产量 4.61 万吨， 同比增 ...