Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 10.17 CNY based on a 9x PE valuation for 2025 [1][4]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is positioned as a leading integrated aluminum industry player with significant overseas resource investments and a strong vertical integration model, which is expected to drive continuous growth in performance [2][4][20]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 CNY, 1.13 CNY, and 1.32 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by lower alumina costs and stable aluminum prices [4][6]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 34.18 billion CNY, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach 4.32 billion CNY, marking a 95.7% increase [6][23]. Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum production chain, including electrolytic aluminum, power generation, and alumina, making it one of the few companies with a complete vertical integration advantage in China [15][20]. - The company has a total share capital of 465.19 million shares, with a market capitalization of 40.15 billion CNY as of February 20, 2025 [1]. Industry Analysis - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is severely constrained, with the industry reaching a production capacity ceiling of approximately 45.1 million tons, limiting future growth in supply [39][42]. - The report indicates that the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow steadily, driven by emerging sectors, despite a decline in traditional sectors [39][40]. Production and Capacity - Tianshan Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is currently at 1.2 million tons, with an additional 200,000 tons of compliant capacity pending construction [8][20]. - The company has made significant investments in overseas alumina resources, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina from projects in Guinea and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance its cost advantages [8][20].

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-005 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于实际控制人部分股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股东股份质押后续进展 （一）股东股份解除质押 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）近日接到股东、 实际控制人曾超林函告，获悉其所持有本公司的部分股份解除质押，具体事项如 下 ： | 股东 | 是否为控股股 东或第一大股 | 本次解除质 | 占其所持 | 占公司 | 质押起始 | 解除质押日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 东及其一致行 | 押股份数量 (万股) | 股份比例 | 总股本 比例 | 日 | 期 | 质权人 | | | 动人 | | | | | | | | 曾超 | | | | | | | 华泰证券 | | 林 | 是 | 8,833.00 | 29.24% ...

天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于实际控制人部分股份质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-004 一、股东股份质押基本情况 公司近日接到股东、实际控制人曾超懿和曾超林函告，获悉其所持有本公 司的部分股份被质押，具体事项如下 ： | 股东 | 是否为控股 股东或第一 | 本次质押 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 是否 | 是否 为补 | 质押起 | 质押到 | | 质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 数量(万 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 为限 | | | | 质权人 | 用途 | | | 大股东及其 一致行动人 | 股) | 比例 | 比例 | 售股 | 充质 押 | 始日 | 期日 | | | | 曾超 | 是 | 2,812.00 | 7.14% | 0.60 ...

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-003 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东的一致行动人部分股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股东股份质押后续进展 （一）股东股份解除质押 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）近日接到公司 控股股东的一致行动人石河子市锦汇能源投资有限公司（以下简称"锦汇投资"） 函告，获悉其所持有本公司的部分股份解除质押，具体事项如下 ： | 股东 | 是否为控股股 | 本次解除质 | | 占公司 | | 解除质押日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 东或第一大股 | 押股份数量 | 占其所持 | 总股本 | 质押起始 | | 质权人 | | 名称 | 东及其一致行 | (万股) | 股份比例 | 比例 | 日 | 期 | | | | 动人 | | | | | | | | | ...

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-002 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 特别提示：公司本次对下属全资孙公司上海辛然实业有限公司和石河子市新 仁电池铝箔科技有限公司提供担保，属于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担 保。敬请投资者充分关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业"、"公司"或"本公司"）为乌鲁木齐银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐天 山区支行（以下简称"乌鲁木齐银行天山区支行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产 建设兵团第八师天山铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 9.5 亿元人民 币主债权提供保证担保，为平安银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐分行（以下简称"平 安银行乌鲁木齐分行"）对本公司全资孙公司靖西天桂铝业有限公司（以下简称 "靖西天桂"）享有的 5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担保、为中国光大银行 股份有限公司南宁分行（以下简称"光大银行南宁分行"）对靖西天桂享有的 2.5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担保，为宁波通商银行股份有限公司上海分行 （以下简称"宁波通商银行上海分行"）对本公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% [7] - The anticipated increase in profit is attributed to higher sales prices for alumina and aluminum ingots, as well as reduced production costs due to improved logistics and tax benefits [7] - The company is progressing in its integrated layout, with ongoing projects in Indonesia and Guinea to secure bauxite resources, and plans to expand alumina production capacity [7] - Tianshan Aluminum is also diversifying into high-value downstream products, such as battery aluminum foil and high-purity aluminum, which are expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to increase from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 31,441 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8% [6] - The net profit is expected to rise from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,715 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.48 yuan in 2023 to 1.01 yuan in 2025 [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain robust, with estimates of 16.0% in 2024 and 15.1% in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.79%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 4.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.41% [6] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by the rising prices of alumina, with the average price in Henan province showing a steady upward trend throughout 2024 [6] - The company has a comprehensive industrial chain layout, which allows it to maintain profitability even with recent declines in alumina prices [6] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 28.975 billion yuan, with projections of 34.637 billion yuan for 2024 and 34.274 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - The net profit for 2023 was 2.205 billion yuan, with forecasts of 4.452 billion yuan for 2024 and 4.862 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2024, and then slightly decrease to 20.9% by 2026 [9] Market and Project Developments - The company has completed a share acquisition of a local mining company in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina products with a production capacity of approximately 6 million tons per year [6] - Ongoing projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are progressing, with approvals for exploration and mining activities being expedited [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to achieve a record high net profit of 4.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.79% [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 4.32 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring items, marking a 129.41% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The increase in profits is attributed to the strong performance of both the alumina and electrolytic aluminum segments [1] Operational Highlights - The average selling price of self-produced alumina increased by approximately 40%, with production volume rising by about 7.5%, leading to significant profit growth in the alumina segment [1] - The average selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots rose by about 6.5%, while costs of other production factors decreased, contributing to profit growth in the electrolytic aluminum segment [1] Industry Position - Tianshan Aluminum has a comprehensive integrated aluminum industry chain, covering bauxite, alumina, carbon anodes, power generation, electrolytic aluminum, high-purity aluminum, battery aluminum foil, and aluminum deep processing [1] - The company’s alumina production in Guangxi can fully meet the raw material needs for electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, effectively mitigating risks from raw material price fluctuations [2] Strategic Developments - The company has extended its industrial chain to the upstream bauxite sector, with the Guinea bauxite project set to enhance its supply stability and cost competitiveness [2] - Tianshan Aluminum aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite within two years, ensuring a stable and low-cost resource supply [2] Market Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to perform well in 2025, with a projected range of 19,500 to 22,000 yuan per ton, supported by supply constraints as electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling [2] Shareholder Returns - In November 2024, Tianshan Aluminum distributed a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share, totaling 920 million yuan, and has distributed over 5.3 billion yuan in dividends since its listing in 2020 [3] - The company plans to determine future dividend ratios based on various factors, including capital expenditure and business layout, as part of its "Quality Return Dual Improvement" initiative [3]

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) announced a profit forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.79% [1] - The stock closed at 8.78 yuan, up 0.69%, with a turnover rate of 1.09% and a trading volume of 397 million yuan, showing a 2.57% increase over the past five days [1] - Statistics indicate that 70.97% of stocks with a profit forecast increase of over 50% saw their prices rise on the announcement day, with 16 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Group 2 - The stock experienced a net outflow of 59.50 million yuan today, with a total net outflow of 174 million yuan over the past five days [1] - As of January 17, the margin trading balance was 599 million yuan, with a financing balance of 592 million yuan, reflecting a 4.52% increase from the previous trading day, while the financing balance decreased by 2.35% over the past five days [1]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4,450 million yuan for 2024, representing a 101.79% increase compared to 2,205.31 million yuan in the same period last year[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 4,320 million yuan, up 129.41% from 1,883.10 million yuan year-on-year[2] - Basic earnings per share are estimated at 0.97 yuan, compared to 0.48 yuan in the previous year[2] Factors Contributing to Profit Growth - The significant growth in performance is primarily due to a 40% year-on-year increase in the average selling price of self-produced alumina and a 7.5% increase in production volume[4] - The average selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots increased by approximately 6.5% year-on-year, contributing to profit growth in the electrolytic aluminum segment[4] - Other production cost factors, excluding alumina, have decreased, further enhancing profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector[4] Reporting and Estimates - The performance forecast is based on preliminary estimates by the company's finance department, with final figures to be confirmed in the 2024 annual report[6]