2025 年 04 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn ——天山铝业（002532）2025 年一季报&2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 天山铝业 | | -16.8% | -16.4% | 12.5% | | 沪深 300 | | -3.8% | -1.3% | 7.5% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 7.57 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 6.08-9.88 | | 总市值（百万） | 35,214.77 | | 流通市值（百万） | 31,264.14 | | 总股本（万股） | 465,188.54 | | 流通股本（万股） | 413,000. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. The gross margin was 20%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, up 47% year-on-year but down 23% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 13% [1] - The company plans to accelerate the construction of an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, aiming to enhance its resource, cost, technology, and management advantages in the global aluminum market [2] - The company has completed an equity acquisition of a local mining company in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with an annual production capacity planned at 5-6 million tons [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20% and a net profit of 1.058 billion yuan [1] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.791 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is constructing an integrated aluminum industry chain in Indonesia, which includes bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing [2] - The company has secured three bauxite mining rights in Indonesia, with plans to start mining in 2025 [2] - The company aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate for bauxite through acquisitions and exploration efforts [3] Market Outlook - The company has adjusted its aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027 to 20,000, 20,500, and 21,000 yuan per ton, respectively, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - The company’s competitive edge is expected to strengthen through its integrated layout and cost advantages, positioning it for significant growth [4]

公司主营产品价格环比双减影响 Q1 利润水平。1）量，2025 年公司全年 主要生产经营目标为原铝产量 116 万吨、发电量 130 亿度、氧化铝产量 240 万吨、预焙阳极产量 55 万吨、铝土矿产量 300 万吨、高纯铝产量 2 万吨、铝箔及铝箔坯料产量 15 万吨。2）价，据 SMM，25Q1 电解铝价格 为 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%；25Q1 氧化铝价格为 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1%。 复制国内成功经验，加快建设海外一体化铝产业园。公司计划在印尼建设 铝一体化产业链，打造铝土矿、氧化铝、电解铝、深加工和配套产业链的 大型一体化铝工业园，形成资源优势、成本优势、技术优势和管理优势协 同并进，面向全球铝市场，不断提高公司在铝行业中的规模和竞争力。公 司已在当地拥有三个铝土矿权，2025 年将进入开采阶段，下一步将在印 尼投资兴建 200 万吨氧化铝项目，目前该项目已被列入印尼国家战略项目 清单，已完成可研报告和环评审批，进入项目设计、土建场平阶段。 以资源保障为重点，拓展资源获取能力和上游产业的布局，使公司铝土矿 自给率达到 100%。公 ...

Core Points - The company guarantees the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the quarterly report, with no false records or misleading statements [2][3] - The quarterly report has not been audited [3][7] Financial Data - The company does not require retrospective adjustments or restatements of previous accounting data [3] - There are no non-recurring profit and loss items applicable for the current quarter [3] - The company has not defined any non-recurring profit and loss items as recurring [3] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders and the situation of the top ten shareholders are not disclosed in the provided documents [5] - There are no changes in the top ten shareholders due to securities lending activities [5] Other Important Matters - The company has changed its website to http://www.tslyjt.com and its email to 002532@tslyjt.com [5]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached ¥7,925,025,818.02, representing a 16.12% increase compared to ¥6,825,089,442.22 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥1,058,092,960.94, a significant increase of 46.99% from ¥719,819,784.57 year-on-year[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share increased by 43.75% to ¥0.23, compared to ¥0.16 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit for the current period was ¥1,057,673,550.25, representing a 46.2% increase from ¥723,374,449.47 in the previous period[17] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 23.95% to ¥801,046,015.79, down from ¥1,053,339,609.25 in the previous year[5] - Cash generated from operating activities was ¥8,558,488,884.44, an increase from ¥7,403,619,693.82 in the previous period[19] - Operating cash inflow totaled approximately ¥8.63 billion, an increase from ¥7.51 billion year-over-year[20] - Cash outflow from operating activities was approximately ¥7.83 billion, compared to ¥6.45 billion in the previous year[20] - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased to approximately ¥801 million from ¥1.05 billion year-over-year[20] - Cash inflow from financing activities was approximately ¥1.56 billion, down from ¥3.08 billion in the previous year[20] - Cash outflow from financing activities totaled approximately ¥2.93 billion, compared to ¥3.30 billion in the previous year[20] - Net cash flow from financing activities showed a significant decline to approximately -¥1.37 billion from -¥216 million year-over-year[20] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was approximately -¥817 million, compared to -¥59.58 million in the previous year[20] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was approximately ¥590 million, down from ¥1.82 billion year-over-year[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q1 2025 were ¥54,992,859,101.35, a decrease of 3.15% from ¥56,780,292,031.26 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to ¥27,112,969,389.76 from ¥29,946,396,702.13, a reduction of 9.5%[15] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders rose by 3.90% to ¥27,878,065,797.83 from ¥26,831,388,895.23 at the end of the last year[5] - Total current assets decreased from 20,931,363,173.13 CNY to 19,305,417,048.92 CNY, a decline of about 7.8%[13] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 47,545[9] - The largest shareholder, Shihezi Jinlong Energy Industry Chain Co., Ltd., holds 19.63% of shares, totaling 913,175,412 shares, with 370,000,000 shares pledged[9] - The second-largest shareholder, Zeng Chao Yi, owns 8.46% of shares, totaling 393,778,364 shares, with 175,000,000 shares pledged[9] Operational Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs amounted to ¥6,740,758,568.95, up 12.7% from ¥5,984,793,694.01 in the prior period[16] - Research and development expenses were ¥48,983,469.91, slightly up from ¥46,414,224.28, indicating continued investment in innovation[16] - The company reported a significant increase in payments for goods and services, totaling approximately ¥6.46 billion, compared to ¥5.70 billion in the previous year[20] - Payments to employees increased to approximately ¥244 million from ¥208 million year-over-year[20] Other Financial Metrics - The financial expenses decreased by 32.41% to ¥124,727,272.59, down from ¥184,524,936.33 in the previous year[8] - Other income increased significantly by 207.51% to ¥63,758,969.45, compared to ¥20,733,967.57 in the same period last year[8] - The net cash flow from investing activities improved by 71.96%, reaching -¥253,561,919.51, compared to -¥904,196,027.56 in the previous year[8] - The company has changed its website and email address for operational needs[11] - There are no significant changes in the top 10 shareholders' participation in margin trading[9]

Core Insights - Tianshan Aluminum reported a net profit of 1.058 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.99% [1] - The company's operating revenue for the same period reached 7.925 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.12% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly, indicating strong financial health and operational efficiency [1] - The revenue growth suggests a positive trend in sales and market demand for the company's products [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, driven by an integrated business layout and rising aluminum prices [1][7] - The target price is set at 9 CNY, with the current price at 7.45 CNY, indicating potential upside [3][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28,089 million CNY, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4,455 million CNY, an increase of 102.03% year-on-year [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 7,294 million CNY, up 9.99% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,371 million CNY, up 141.43% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 1,050 million CNY, a growth of 46% year-on-year [7] Production and Pricing Insights - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 CNY/ton, up about 6% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 4,000 CNY/ton, up about 40% year-on-year [7] - The company achieved record production levels in electrolytic aluminum (1,175,900 tons), alumina (2,278,900 tons), and electricity generation (over 13.8 billion kWh) in 2024 [7] Strategic Developments - The company is making steady progress in its integrated projects, including the acquisition of mining rights in Indonesia and the commencement of production in Guinea [7] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations is expected to enhance cost advantages and operational efficiency [7] Future Profitability Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4,647 million CNY, 5,463 million CNY, and 6,267 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 17.6%, and 14.7% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 102% in 2024, reaching a net profit of 4.455 billion yuan [1][4]. - The integrated business model has strengthened, with the company entering production in Guinea and securing mining rights for its own bauxite mines in Guangxi [3][4]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend of 1.85 billion yuan for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 41.4%, and plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 28.089 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 4.455 billion yuan, reflecting a 102% increase [1][5]. - The average aluminum price in 2024 was 20,000 yuan per ton, up 8.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability despite rising production costs [2][5]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was 7.367 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 7.925 billion yuan in 2025 [5][12]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of aluminum in 2024, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.195 billion yuan from the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][3]. - The alumina production reached 2.2789 million tons, with a significant increase in average selling price by 40% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan from the alumina segment [2][3]. - The production cost of alumina increased by only 2%, while the average selling price rose significantly, indicating strong pricing power [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a favorable supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum in 2025, driven by new domestic policies and supply constraints [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.686 billion yuan, 5.594 billion yuan, and 6.019 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.4, 6.2, and 5.8 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 1.78 billion yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 17.7%, and 11.8% [4][5][6]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The total share capital is 4.652 billion shares, with 4.130 billion shares in circulation. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][4]. Performance Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from 28.089 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.538 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 22.6% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 15.9% [8][10][12]. Growth Drivers - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly, contributing to the company's growth potential [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years. Additionally, a share buyback plan is in place, with an estimated repurchase of approximately 20 million shares, accounting for 0.43% of the total share capital [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.03%. The non-recurring profit was approximately 178 million yuan, leading to a non-recurring net profit of 4.309 billion yuan, up 128.80% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 4.685 billion, 5.515 billion, and 6.163 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +5.2%, +17.7%, and +11.8% [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The total market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is 35.261 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 31.305 billion yuan. The current stock price is 7.58 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.88 yuan and a low of 6.08 yuan. The company has a total share capital of 4.652 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 4.130 billion shares. The turnover rate over the past three months is 72.45% [1][8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.01, 1.19, and 1.32 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.3, 6.2, and 5.5 times [4][8] Growth and Dividend Strategy - Tianshan Aluminum is enhancing its industrial chain by establishing a self-sufficient supply of bauxite and expanding its production capacity in alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The company has obtained mining rights for local bauxite in Guangxi and is progressing with a 1 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase significantly [5][6] - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends totaling 1.845 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42%. The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the annual net profit for the next three years [6]