未来几年，我们预计公司业绩将在项目投产的推动下获得持续快速增长。 结合近期市场情况，我们调整了公司主要产品与原料价格，及期间费率假设。我们调整公司2025-2026 年每股收益EPS 预测为2.18、2.85 元（原预测2.01、2.13元），并添加2027 年EPS 预测为3.25 元。按照 可比公司25 年平均14 倍PE，对应目标价为30.52 元（原目标价22.72 元），维持买入评级。 风险提示 业绩稳健增长：公司2024 年业绩表现亮眼，全年实现营业收入456.5 亿元，同比增长10.0%，归母净利 润60.7 亿元，同比增长26.8%。单四季度营收133.7 亿元，同比增长41.7%，归母净利润23.8 亿元，同比 增长75.1%，增速环比进一步加快。在上半年连云港基地大检修的情况下，全年仍实现业绩显著增长， 主要得益于新项目投产及原料价格下行带来的盈利能力提升。 公司发展多点开花：1）新材料新能源一体化项目投产，80 万吨多碳醇项目顺利落地，推动丙烯酸产业 链闭环，巩固行业龙头地位；2）高端材料国产化突破，茂金属聚乙烯、POE 等产品研发取得进展，进 口替代空间广阔；3）全球化布局深化，成立卫 ...

买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：覃前 | S1050124070019 | | qinqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 21.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 728 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3369 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3366 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.75-22.11 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 397.73 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 卫星化学 沪深300 2025 年 03 月 27 日 究 报 告 主要产品产销量实现增长，轻烃项目投产助力公 司 2024 年业绩增长 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《卫星化学（002648）：Q3 公司 盈利能力改善，新材料打开成长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in 2024, driven by increased production and sales of chemical products and new materials, with a projected revenue of 456.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03% [3][4]. - The company successfully launched an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project, enhancing its market influence in the acrylic acid industry and creating a closed-loop industrial chain [4]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment to overcome key material technology challenges, with R&D expenses rising by 7.69% year-on-year [5]. - The establishment of a 100,000-ton ethanolamine facility and the acceleration of new acrylic acid production capacity in Pinghu and Jiaxing are part of the company's strategy to enhance its product offerings [6]. - The company forecasts significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 69.47 billion yuan in 2025, 89.63 billion yuan in 2026, and 114.28 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5, 8.1, and 6.4 respectively [8][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 456.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 60.72 billion yuan, with quarterly performance showing a 41.69% year-on-year increase in Q4 revenue [3][4]. - The company’s chemical and new materials production reached 7.33 million tons, with sales of 7.35 million tons, marking increases of 15.18% and 15.83% year-on-year respectively [4]. R&D and Production Capacity - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investment to drive innovation and reduce reliance on imports, with significant advancements in high-end materials [5]. - The completion of the ethanolamine facility and the ongoing development of new acrylic acid capacities are expected to enhance the company's product matrix and value chain [6]. Profit Forecast - The company anticipates robust profit growth, with net profits projected to grow at rates of 14.4%, 29.0%, and 27.5% from 2025 to 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has enhanced its integrated supply chain advantages through new capacity and continuous R&D investment [2] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales gross margin and net margin improved to 23.57% and 13.28%, respectively, reflecting quality enhancement and product differentiation [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from functional chemicals, polymer materials, and new energy materials reached 21.707 billion, 11.987 billion, and 0.841 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.96%, 0.60%, and 80.77% respectively [5] - The company’s R&D investment in 2024 was 1.75 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase, with a R&D expense ratio of 3.8% [7] - The company’s projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 2.19, 2.45, and 2.66 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [8][9] Capacity and Production - The company has established a complete industrial chain for acrylic acid and esters, enhancing its market influence [6] - New production capacities are being steadily deployed, including a 100,000-ton ethanolamine facility and an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project [6][7] Market Data - As of March 27, the closing price was 22.21 yuan, with a market capitalization of 74.818 billion yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has enhanced its integrated advantages in the industrial chain through new capacity and continuous R&D investment [2] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year [3] - The company’s overall sales gross margin and net margin improved to 23.57% and 13.28%, respectively, reflecting quality enhancement and differentiated product development [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s functional chemicals, polymer materials, and new energy materials generated revenues of 21.707 billion, 11.987 billion, and 0.841 billion yuan, respectively, with new energy materials growing rapidly by 80.77% year-on-year [5] - The company’s R&D investment reached 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with a focus on key strategic materials and cutting-edge new materials [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.19, 2.45, and 2.66 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [8][9] Capacity Expansion and R&D - The company has made significant progress in its production capacity, including a 100,000-ton ethanolamine facility and an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project, enhancing its competitive edge in the acrylic acid and ester industry [6][7] - The company plans to invest 10 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years, focusing on catalyst, new energy materials, and polymer new materials [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company continues to show strong performance, with a projected net profit growth of 26.8% in 2024 and further growth expected in the following years [4][10] - The C2 chain benefits from low raw material costs, with the average price of ethane in 2024 at $0.1906 per gallon, down 22.37% year-on-year, enhancing profitability [2][6] - The C3 chain is entering a recovery phase, supported by the successful launch of 800,000 tons of butanol production and positive price signals for key products [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 41.487 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to 45.648 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% [6] - The net profit for 2023 was 4.789 billion, expected to rise to 6.072 billion in 2024, marking a 26.8% increase [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 1.42 in 2023 to 1.80 in 2024 [6] Production Capacity and Market Expansion - The company is expanding its C2 production capacity, with phase three expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and phase four by the end of 2026 [3] - There is a significant market opportunity in high-end polyethylene, with an annual import volume exceeding 13 million tons in China, indicating a supply gap [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 45.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, and a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [2][3]. - The company faced production and sales impacts in the first half of the year due to maintenance on its C2 series units, but it significantly improved profitability in the second half, achieving a quarterly profit of 4 billion yuan in Q4, a 46% increase from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The C2 route focuses on products like EO/EG, and the company is set to launch ethanolamine production in 2024, enhancing its product diversification and supply chain [4]. - The company benefits from a cost advantage in its C2 ethane cracking process compared to oil-based routes, and the profitability of its C3 chain, particularly in acrylic acid and esters, remains stable [4]. - The company is also investing heavily in new product development, with a research and development expenditure of 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, which is expected to further enhance its operational efficiency and product offerings [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have total assets of 68.3 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, with a revenue of 45.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan, marking a 26.8% year-on-year growth [3][10]. - The Q4 profit reached a record high of 2.38 billion yuan, up 46% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Product Diversification and Cost Advantage - The company is enhancing its product portfolio with the upcoming launch of ethanolamine and is leveraging its cost advantages in the C2 ethane cracking process [4]. - The 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project is expected to contribute significantly to profitability as it ramps up production [4]. Research and Development - The company is committed to innovation, with a planned R&D investment of 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, which is 7.7% higher than the previous year, indicating a focus on maximizing benefits across its supply chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company continues to demonstrate strong performance, with a projected net profit growth of 26.8% in 2024 and further growth expected in the following years [4][10] - The C2 chain benefits from low-cost ethane sourced from the US, with a significant price drop of 22.37% year-on-year, enhancing profitability [2][3] - The C3 chain is showing signs of recovery, driven by the successful launch of 800,000 tons of butanol production and positive price trends for key products [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 41.49 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to 45.65 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [6] - The net profit for 2023 was 4.79 billion, expected to rise to 6.07 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 26.8% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.42 in 2023 to 1.80 in 2024 [6] Production Capacity and Market Expansion - The company is expanding its C2 production capacity significantly, with phase three expected to be operational by early 2026 and phase four by early 2027 [3] - There is a strong market demand for high-end polyethylene, with an annual import gap of over 13 million tons in China, indicating potential for growth in differentiated new materials [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2024, with revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.373 billion yuan, a 41.69% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.379 billion yuan, a 75.09% increase year-on-year [1][14]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the C2 and C3 chemical industry chains, continuously enhancing its integrated industrial layout and maintaining rapid growth in performance [5][8]. - The company is investing in high-end new materials projects, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth, with significant new production capacities planned for the coming years [4][11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 68.652 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 10%, 9%, 18%, and 16% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.012 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 56%, 27%, 21%, 30%, and 26% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.42 yuan in 2023 to 3.57 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 15.2 to 6.1 [2]. Business Segments - The functional chemicals segment generated revenue of 21.707 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 20.35%, while the high polymer materials segment achieved revenue of 11.987 billion yuan with a gross margin of 35.05% [18]. - The new energy materials segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.77%, although its gross margin decreased [18]. - The company has established a comprehensive production capacity across various segments, including 90,000 tons/year of propylene and 84,000 tons/year of acrylic acid, making it a leading player in the domestic market [9][12]. Industry Outlook - The supply of ethane is expected to remain abundant due to the shale gas revolution in the United States, which will provide a cost advantage for the company [25][40]. - The domestic ethylene production capacity is projected to expand, with a total capacity of 54.99 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing market for the company’s products [32]. - The acrylic acid and ester industry is anticipated to experience a favorable supply-demand balance due to limited new capacity additions, enhancing the market position of leading companies like the report's subject [45][49].

| | A4：收购兼并是加快公司发展的路径之一，公司会根据标的具体情 | | --- | --- | | | 况而定。 | | | Q5：公司新项目的建设进度情况，都能按规划投产吗？ | | | A5：新项目正在推进中，具体详见公司相关公告。 | | | Q6：美国乙烷目前价格处在高位，对公司的一二季度会有多大影 响？ | | | A6：乙烷价格属于正常波动范围，公司的利润主要来源于功能化学 | | | 品、高分子新材料、新能源材料和其它业务，公司将始终秉持创新 | | | 提升产品品质，增强盈利能力和竞争力。 | | | Q7：公司的年报中业绩增速明显快于营收增长，都有哪些原因？ | | | A7：尊敬的投资者，您好！年报中业绩增速快于营收增长，主要因 | | | 为原料价格下行，产品新牌号、品质提升等带来溢价，原料与产品 | | | 价差扩大。 | | 关于本次活动是否 | | | 涉及应披露重大信 | 本次调研活动不涉及未公开披露的重大信息。 | | 息的说明 | | | 活动过程中所使用 | | | 的演示文稿、提供 | 无。 | | 的文档等附件（如 | | | 有，可作为附件） | | 证券代码： ...