新华财经北京10月14日电统计显示，2025年9月，A股上市公司共计实施定增15起，同比上升200%；实际募资总额约1447.14亿元，同比上升10359%。 按照首次披露预案日口径统计，2025年9月A股上市公司定增预案发布数量共计33起，拟募资规模约326亿元，同比上升37.45%。其中，拓荆科技、中材科技 等企业拟募资规模相对靠前。 9月实际募资约1447亿元 根据信披数据，以定增股份上市日统计，2025年9月A股上市公司共计实施定增15起，同比上升200%；实际募集资金合计约1447.14亿元，同比上升 10356%、环比上升695%。 图1：2024年9月以来A股实施定增数量及实际募集总额 2025年9月实施定增的上市公司中，中国船舶的实际募资额排在首位。中国船舶新增股份数量为30.53亿股，发行价格为37.59元／股，实际募资总额为1147.7 亿元，募集资金净额拟用于吸收合并中国船舶重工股份有限公司。 实际募资额排在第二位的是芯联集成。该公司9月增发新股约13.14亿股，发行价格为4.04元／股，实际募资总额为53.07亿元，募集资金净额拟用于购买芯联 越州集成电路制造（绍兴）有限公司72.33 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月13日 公募 REITs 周报（第 37 期） 指数震荡下行，产权类跌幅较大 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 主要结论：本周中证 REITs 指数下跌，全周下跌 0.3%。产权类 REITs 和特许 经营权类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅为-0.3%、-0.1%，从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来 看：中证全债>中证转债>中证 REITs>沪深 300。多数板块收跌，市政设施、 生态环保涨幅领先。截至 10 月 10 日，产权 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息 率均值高 86BP,经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 207BP。首单外资消费 REITs 正式上市，这是中国公募 REITs 市场国际化、 多元化、专业化发展的标杆案例。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为-0.3%，年初至今涨跌幅为 4.7%。截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，中证 REITs（收盘）指数收盘价为 826.77 点，整周 （2025/10/6-2025/10/10）涨跌幅为-0.3%，表现弱于中证全债指数（+0.1%）、 中证转债指数（0.0%），强于沪深 300 指 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 主流制冷剂产品四季度长协价格落地 据卓创资讯，R32长协价格为6.02万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨9600元/吨，增幅18.97%；R410A长协 价格为5.32万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨3600元/吨，涨幅为7.26%。此外，据氟务在线，制冷剂大厂对外 报价或将由季度定价模式转为月度定价模式，制冷剂价格上涨到制冷剂企业业绩增长的传导将更加顺 畅。 R32、R134a报价持续上涨 国信证券发布研报称，据卓创资讯（301299），R32长协价格为6.02万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨 9600元/吨，增幅18.97%；R410A长协价格为5.32万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨3600元/吨，涨幅为 7.26%。R32表现强势，国内空调企业海外产能的持续释放以及海外市场对环保冷媒产品的更新需求影 响下，R32外贸需求持续增长，市场货源紧张加剧企业惜售心态，企业外贸流通报价已上调至6.2万元/ 吨，内贸报价则提升至6.1-6.3万元/吨。R134a配额持续消耗，报价区间提升至5.3-5.4万元/吨。 出口方面，根据海关数据显示，1-8月我国空调累计出口4781万台，同比+2.0%，出口市场自5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [3][8]. Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see a recovery in performance due to active market trading in the third quarter, with valuations currently at reasonable levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8][28]. - The average daily stock trading volume in the two markets reached 25,869 billion yuan, a significant increase of 19% week-on-week, reflecting a strong recovery in trading activity post-holiday [6][15]. - In September, the equity financing scale reached 43.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%, indicating robust activity in the investment banking sector [7][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that during the first week after the holiday, the securities sector performed actively, with the broker index rising by 0.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1 percentage point [5][10]. - The broker index's price-to-book ratio stands at 1.48x, maintaining a level consistent with the previous week and within the 48th percentile of the past decade [5][10]. Industry Weekly Data - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily stock trading volume in September was 23,927 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 154% [6][15]. - **Investment Banking**: In September, 28 companies engaged in equity financing, with a total financing scale of 437 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 109% [7][20]. - **Capital Intermediation**: As of October 10, the margin trading balance reached 24,456 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the previous period, continuing to set new highs for the year [7][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokers with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends attention to Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to their strong performance certainty amid active trading [8][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has experienced an excess decline compared to the overall A-share index since late August, with valuations and institutional holdings at low levels. The brokerage sector shows good performance prospects, while the insurance sector has certain dividend attributes. The non-bank financial sector is seen as having both offensive and defensive characteristics, and there are strategic opportunities for investment in the brokerage sector, particularly in undervalued life insurance stocks and high dividend yield companies like Jiangsu Jinzu [5] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.19 trillion yuan, up 15.9% month-on-month. In September, 2.94 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 61% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The total number of new accounts opened from January to September reached 20.15 million, up 50% year-on-year [6] - The adjustment of margin financing collateral ratios is a routine measure and primarily affects new financing scales without impacting existing stock. The brokerage sector's performance in Q3 is expected to show a year-on-year growth of 53.1% in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [6] - The report recommends three main lines of brokerage stocks: Guosen Securities, which benefits from retail advantages and the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot; Huatai Securities and CICC, which excel in overseas and institutional business; and GF Securities and Dongfang Securities H, which have significant wealth management advantages [6] Insurance Sector - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy for non-auto insurance business is expected to lead to a decline in the comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance companies. The regulatory measures are anticipated to guide the industry towards more standardized development and lower insurance rates [7] - Long-term interest rates remain stable, alleviating net asset pressures, while the expected return on equity assets is boosted, leading to a potential improvement in the interest margin for insurance companies in the medium to long term. The report recommends undervalued stocks such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities H, CICC H, Dongfang Caifu, Guotai Junan; China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance; Jiangsu Jinzu, Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities suggests that the opportunity for the third wave of gold may be triggered by a peak in the overseas artificial intelligence technology wave, but currently, there are no signs of this occurring [1][5]. Group 1: Gold as an Asset Class - Gold plays a crucial role in asset allocation for diversification and risk hedging, with optimal allocation ratios being a topic of market interest [1]. - Ray Dalio suggests a reasonable allocation of 15% for gold, while Jeffrey Gundlach believes it could be as high as 25%, especially in the context of high inflation and government debt [1]. - The report emphasizes that holding cash and bonds is not an effective wealth preservation strategy in the current economic environment, making gold a valuable independent asset [1]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Allocation Strategies - A simple rebalancing model indicates that since 2013, a portfolio with a 25% allocation to stocks and bonds has underperformed compared to a portfolio heavily weighted in gold, which has shown a net value of 5.84 [2]. - For household asset allocation, a gold allocation of 2-10% is deemed appropriate, with historical data showing that a 10% allocation resulted in a cumulative return of 138.50% compared to 126.10% for portfolios without gold [3]. Group 3: Institutional Asset Management - For institutional asset management products, gold allocation can be increased to over 10%, with optimal allocation averaging 18% based on mean-variance optimization from 1972 to 2014 [4]. - Gold has demonstrated robust performance in various inflation environments, particularly when annual inflation exceeds 5%, and it shows positive or low negative correlation during downturns in stock, bond, and commodity markets [4]. Group 4: Current Market Outlook - Guosen Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing insufficient global safe-haven assets post the Ukraine crisis and concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report notes that the third wave opportunity for gold may arise from a shift in capital flows due to a peak in the AI technology sector, although no such signals have been observed yet [5].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic research by Guosen Securities indicates that following the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," the U.S. dollar index has weakened significantly, while global risk aversion has increased, driving up gold prices. The uncertainty in trade has led to a bleak global growth outlook, with commodities generally declining, particularly global pricing varieties experiencing larger drops than domestic ones [1][3]. Trade Relations - As the fourth quarter approaches, China and the U.S. are set to enter a new round of intensive negotiations regarding trade issues. The medium to long-term uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries remains high. A review of the key events from the first round of trade confrontations in April-May this year can provide insights into potential market fluctuations in the next phase [2]. - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods. Following China's response, the U.S. increased tariffs to 125% within a few days. By May, under internal pressure, the U.S. softened its stance and expressed willingness to resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels, leading to a temporary easing of tensions [2]. Dollar and Commodities - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index. Concurrently, global risk aversion has surged, further boosting gold prices. The uncertain trade environment has resulted in a pessimistic global growth outlook, with commodities generally weakening, especially global pricing varieties experiencing more significant declines than domestic ones [3]. - Looking ahead, under the trade conflict, gold prices are more likely to rise while other commodities remain weak. The impacts of trade policy conflicts tend to clear in the short term, potentially leading to overshooting opportunities. It is noteworthy that current trade negotiations are primarily focused on U.S.-China relations, differing from the broader global impact of the April tariff announcements [3]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to see a phase of rebound due to fundamental pressures. During the April trade tensions, bond yields fell by 18 basis points. Historical experiences suggest that sudden tariff and sanction events lead to rapid pricing in the bond market. Following the tariff policy announcement, the bond market experienced fluctuations exceeding 5 basis points within two trading days, but the impact diminished significantly as trade sanctions escalated [4][5]. - Looking forward, the probability of a bond market rebound in October appears higher. Economic pressures in July and August suggest that monetary policy may continue to ease. Additionally, the current 10-1 yield spread of 40 basis points is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic outlook, with limited upward pressure on long-term yields under stable monetary policy conditions [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 策略解读 贸易摩擦升级对 A 股有何影响 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 王开 | | | | | | | 021-60933132 | | | | | | | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | | | | | | | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | 事项： 受特朗普叫嚣所谓的"关税威胁"影响，10 月 10 日美股三大股指集体下挫，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一 交易日下跌 878.82 点，收于 45479.60 点，跌幅为 1.90%；标准普尔 500 种股票指数下跌 182.60 点，收于 6552.51 点，跌幅为 2.71%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 820.20 点，收于 22204.43 点，跌幅为 3.56%。美国大 型科技股和中概股全线下跌，短期受情绪冲击影响较大。在政策支持前景下，我们仍看好 A 股市场中期走 势，关注四季度风格再平衡，布局地产、券商、消费等价值型板块。 观点： 关税冲击后，A 股中期向好逻辑未变，Q4 风格向传统价 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 主动量化策略周报 股票涨基金跌，成长稳健组合年内满仓上涨 62.19% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-0.98%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.54%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 29.30%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益-4.01%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 54.63%分位点（1895/3469）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益 0.22%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 1.74%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 47.41%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 14.10%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 21.71% 分位点（753/3469）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益-1.51%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.01%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 34.07%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 0.76%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 44.42%分位点（1541/3469）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report tracks the performance of various active quantitative strategies, highlighting their absolute and relative returns against benchmarks, specifically focusing on the "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio," "Super Expected Selection Portfolio," "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio," and "Growth Stability Portfolio" [2][3][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of -0.98% this week and a year-to-date return of 29.30%, with a relative excess return of 0.54% against the mixed equity fund index [1][9]. - The "Super Expected Selection Portfolio" recorded an absolute return of 0.22% this week and 47.41% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.74% [1][17]. - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio" had an absolute return of -1.51% this week and 34.07% year-to-date, with a slight excess return of 0.01% against the mixed equity fund index [1][18]. - The "Growth Stability Portfolio" posted an absolute return of -0.08% this week and 54.84% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.44% [1][28]. Group 2: Strategy Summaries - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio" aims to benchmark against the median return of public active equity funds, utilizing quantitative methods to enhance performance based on the holdings of top-performing funds [5][32]. - The "Super Expected Selection Portfolio" selects stocks based on positive earnings surprises and analyst upgrades, focusing on both fundamental and technical criteria to build a robust portfolio [11][39]. - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio" leverages the brokerage golden stock pool, optimizing the selection to maintain alignment with the performance of public equity funds [14][43]. - The "Growth Stability Portfolio" employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those with upcoming earnings announcements to capture potential excess returns [21][47].