Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Guosen Securities, Xun Yugen, suggests that the gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals is expected to spread across more industries, influenced by macro policies like "anti-involution" [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Historical experiences indicate that current economic improvements may expand to various sectors [1] - The analysis of valuation and market sentiment shows that relevant indicators remain relatively mild, suggesting potential for market growth [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector is maintained as the main market focus, with a positive outlook for the next year, particularly in AI applications [1]

首先是地产板块。荀玉根认为，该板块经历近几年的调整，目前整体估值较低。政策端来看，预计会有 更多稳地产政策持续发力，低估的地产股具备修复潜力。其次是券商板块。荀玉根表示，随着市场行情 回暖，成交明显放量，券商净利润同比回升明显。随着市场情绪进一步回升，市场成交额或进一步放 大，券商利润有望进一步提升。此外，券商的营收有望受益于金融创新业务拓宽。第三是消费板 块。"以白酒为例，白酒指数连跌5年，股息率回到高位，性价比凸显。叠加股市行情回暖带动的居民财 富效应，或推动消费板块上行。"荀玉根表示。 荀玉根还表示，价值板块的投资价值亦不可忽视。"2025年4月份以来，行业轮动逐渐降速，科技主线凝 聚市场资金共识且涨幅已较为显著，借鉴过往历史经验，价值板块或存在补涨机会。"荀玉根表示，可 关注以下三个领域。 10月15日，国信证券首席经济学家、经济研究所所长荀玉根在"固本砺新行远——2025私募基金高质量 发展大会暨国信证券杯·第十六届私募金牛奖颁奖典礼"上表示，借鉴过往的历史经验，在"反内卷"等更 多宏观政策落地的背景下，当前经济基本面的点状改善有望逐渐扩散到更多行业。从估值和市场情绪等 方面分析，相关指标仍比较温和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current capital market reform is advancing, creating a favorable environment for the high-quality development of the private equity industry through the implementation of new policies and regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Function - Private equity institutions play a crucial role as institutional investors by participating in targeted financing and convertible bond issuance, providing incremental capital to listed companies, and enhancing the stability of the capital market [1]. - These institutions utilize scientific investment philosophies and diverse strategies to smooth market fluctuations, improve pricing efficiency, and promote a healthy and sustainable capital market ecosystem [1]. Group 2: Value Creation for Clients - Private equity institutions leverage their professional capabilities to create value for clients by closely tracking specific sectors and adjusting investment portfolios based on market changes [2]. - They offer customized services using various investment tools such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, and futures, helping clients achieve wealth preservation and growth according to their risk tolerance and investment goals [2]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The private equity industry is experiencing profound changes driven by artificial intelligence, with institutions utilizing advanced technologies to analyze vast amounts of data and identify potential investment targets [2]. - Technology is also being integrated into the entire business process to enhance compliance and risk management, leading to higher operational standards and quality development within the industry [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With the continuous accumulation of household wealth, the improvement of the multi-level capital market system, and advancements in financial technology, the prospects for high-quality development in the private equity industry are increasingly promising [2].

"随着居民财富不断积累，多层次资本市场体系不断完善，金融科技不断进步，私募行业高质量发展前 景越发广阔。"张纳沙表示，国信证券对私募行业高质量发展充满信心，公司将持续推动多层次、立体 化的私募基金服务体系建设，深化与中国证券报、私募管理人等方面的合作，助力私募行业行稳致远。 （文章来源：中国证券报） 二是发挥专业优势，持续为客户创造价值。私募机构"受人之托、代人理财"，依托专业能力优势，长期 跟踪研究特定领域，根据市场变化快速调整投资组合，帮助客户捕捉投资机会。综合运用股票、债券、 ETF、期货等多种投资工具，根据客户的风险承受能力、投资期限及收益目标，提供定制化服务，帮助 客户科学配置资产，实现财富保值增值。 三是强化科技赋能，不断提高自身发展质效。当前，DeepSeek引爆人工智能新时代，全球金融业正经 历以智能驱动为核心的深刻变革。私募机构一方面利用前沿技术分析海量数据，挖掘潜在投资标的，优 化投资组合，持续提升智能投研水平，改善客户体验；另一方面，借助技术手段将监管规则和风控要 求"内嵌"到业务全流程，实现合规风控的智能化、精准化，持续提高规范运作水平，实现自身更高质量 的发展。 10月15日，国信证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, which is expected to gradually spread across more industries, supported by macro policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing market sentiment [1] Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to remain the main focus of the market, driven by the AI wave that has opened up new growth opportunities across multiple industries since September 2024 [2] - Historical data shows significant profit growth in technology sectors during previous waves, such as the increase in net profit growth of the computer sector from 3% in Q1 2013 to 175% in Q1 2016 [2] - The outlook for the next year remains positive for the technology sector, particularly in AI applications [2] Group 2: Value Sector - The value sector is also seen as having investment potential, with expectations of a rotation in industries and potential for catch-up gains [2] - Three specific areas of focus within the value sector include real estate, brokerage firms, and consumer goods [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments and currently has low overall valuations, with expectations for more supportive policies to stabilize the market [3] - Low-valued real estate stocks are believed to have recovery potential [3] Group 4: Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a recovering market, with a noticeable increase in trading volume and a significant year-on-year rise in net profits [3] - Further market sentiment recovery could lead to increased trading volumes and enhanced profitability for brokerages [3] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, particularly the liquor industry, is highlighted for its potential, with the liquor index having declined for five consecutive years, leading to high dividend yields and improved cost-effectiveness [3] - The recovery in the stock market is anticipated to boost consumer spending, further supporting the upward movement of the consumer sector [3]

对于未来市场前景，多位与会嘉宾表达乐观态度。毕盛资产创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉表 示，坚定看多中国资本市场。日斗投资董事长王文表示，中国经济具备长期发展的坚实基础，坚定看好 中国股票市场未来发展的巨大潜力。 国信证券首席经济学家、经济研究所所长荀玉根表示，伴随更多宏观政策落地，市场未来的上涨空间可 期。开思基金创始人、董事长陈京伟表示，中国资产需要重估，且应该从港股开始。 张纳沙在致辞中表示，当前，资本市场投融资综合改革正深入推进，随着新"国九条"和资本市 场"1+N"政策体系落地实施，多层次市场体系更加完备，为私募行业高质量发展创造了良好环境。 中国宏观经济研究院研究员毕吉耀表示，今年以来，我国经济保持较快增长，展现出强大活力和韧性。 从发展态势看，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。 未来应加强超常规逆周期调节，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上。 ● 本报记者王雪青王宇露 10月15日，由中国证券报主办、国信证券独家冠名的"固本砺新行远——2025私募基金高质量发展大 会"在深圳举行。在高质量发展成为基金行业共识的当下，大会汇聚政界、学界与产业的思想火 ...

三是强化科技赋能，不断提高自身发展质效。当前，DeepSeek引爆人工智能新时代，全球金融业正经 历以智能驱动为核心的深刻变革。私募机构一方面利用前沿技术分析海量数据，挖掘潜在投资标的，优 化投资组合，持续提升智能投研水平，改善客户体验；另一方面，借助技术手段将监管规则和风控要 求"内嵌"到业务全流程，实现合规风控的智能化、精准化，持续提高规范运作水平，实现自身更高质量 的发展。 "随着居民财富不断积累，多层次资本市场体系不断完善，金融科技不断进步，私募行业高质量发展前 景越发广阔。"张纳沙表示，国信证券对私募行业高质量发展充满信心，公司将持续推动多层次、立体 化的私募基金服务体系建设，深化与中国证券报、私募管理人等方面的合作，助力私募行业行稳致远。 10月15日，国信证券党委书记、董事长张纳沙在由中国证券报主办的"固本 砺新 行远——2025私募基金 高质量发展大会暨国信证券杯·第十六届私募金牛奖颁奖典礼"上表示，当前，资本市场投融资综合改革 正深入推进，随着新"国九条"和资本市场"1+N"政策体系落地实施，多层次市场体系更加完备，为私募 行业高质量发展创造了良好环境。《私募投资基金监督管理条例》《私募证券 ...

● 本报记者 王雪青 王宇露 国信证券首席经济学家、经济研究所所长荀玉根表示，伴随更多宏观政策落地，市场未来的上涨空间可 期。开思基金创始人、董事长陈京伟表示，中国资产需要重估，且应该从港股开始。 10月15日，由中国证券报主办、国信证券独家冠名的"固本 砺新 行远——2025私募基金高质量发展大 会"在深圳举行。在高质量发展成为基金行业共识的当下，大会汇聚政界、学界与产业的思想火花，纵 论私募基金在新时代的发展路径与机遇。 张纳沙在致辞中表示，当前，资本市场投融资综合改革正深入推进，随着新"国九条"和资本市 场"1+N"政策体系落地实施，多层次市场体系更加完备，为私募行业高质量发展创造了良好环境。 中国宏观经济研究院研究员毕吉耀表示，今年以来，我国经济保持较快增长，展现出强大活力和韧性。 从发展态势看，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。 未来应加强超常规逆周期调节，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上。 对于未来市场前景，多位与会嘉宾表达乐观态度。毕盛资产创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉表 示，坚定看多中国资本市场。日斗投资董事长王文表示，中国经济具备长期发展的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 3900 points, indicates a significant increase in market activity, with a focus on the technology growth sector as the main theme of the current market cycle [1][2]. Industry Focus - The technology growth sector, particularly the AI computing industry chain, is expected to benefit from the global AI wave and domestic substitution, with upstream suppliers showing stronger logic than thematic stocks [1]. - Other technology sectors such as advanced manufacturing, new energy, and semiconductors may experience style rotation and periodic rebalancing within the growth sector [1]. - Low-valuation sectors like real estate, liquor, and brokerage are anticipated to benefit from improved policy environments and short-term capital drives in the fourth quarter [1]. Market Dynamics - The recent transitions in market leadership, such as Cambrian and Kweichow Moutai switching "king" titles, reflect a shift from traditional consumption to technology innovation-driven market characteristics [2]. - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, seizing opportunities in both technology innovation and traditional sector valuation recovery [2]. Performance Metrics - The top four performing stocks in the computing sector and one in the electronics sector have contributed approximately 25% to the CSI 300 Index's gains this year, with the top 15 stocks accounting for half of the index's increase [3]. - The simultaneous rise of gold and the stock market indicates different underlying logics, with gold benefiting from global risk aversion and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, while the A-share market rises due to policy easing and industrial upgrades [3].

10月15日，由中国证券报主办、国信证券独家冠名的"固本 砺新 行远——2025私募基金高质量发展大会"在深圳举行。国信证券党委书记、董事长张纳沙在 会上表示，当前，资本市场投融资综合改革正深入推进，随着新"国九条"和资本市场"1+N"政策体系落地实施，多层次市场体系更加完备，为私募行业高质 量发展创造了良好环境。《私募投资基金监督管理条例》《私募证券投资基金运作指引》等法规和自律规则，对私募基金规范运作、功能发挥提出了更高要 求，为私募行业高质量发展指明了方向。 国信证券党委书记、董事长张纳沙致辞 二是发挥专业优势，持续为客户创造价值。私募机构"受人之托、代人理财"，依托专业能力优势，长期跟踪研究特定领域，根据市场变化快速调整投资组 合，帮助客户捕捉投资机会。综合运用股票、债券、ETF、期货等多种投资工具，根据客户的风险承受能力、投资期限及收益目标，提供定制化服务，帮助 客户科学配置资产，实现财富保值增值。 三是强化科技赋能，不断提高自身发展质效。当前，DeepSeek引爆人工智能新时代，全球金融业正经历以智能驱动为核心的深刻变革。私募机构一方面利 用前沿技术分析海量数据，挖掘潜在投资标的，优化投资组合，持 ...