Core Viewpoint - Jihong Co., Ltd. experienced a significant decline of 9.94% in its stock price, with a trading volume of 1.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 20.45% on the day of the report [2] Trading Activity Summary - The stock was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's watch list due to a price deviation of -11.46% [2] - Institutional investors net bought 31.40 million yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect saw a net sell of 17.76 million yuan [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction volume of 303 million yuan, with a net sell of 32.10 million yuan [2] Institutional Participation - Two institutional special seats were involved in trading, with a total buy amount of 50.55 million yuan and a sell amount of 19.15 million yuan, resulting in a net buy of 31.40 million yuan [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect was the largest buying and selling department, with a buy amount of 48.21 million yuan and a sell amount of 65.97 million yuan, leading to a net sell of 17.76 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The stock saw a net outflow of 95.45 million yuan from major funds, with a significant outflow of 152 million yuan from large orders, while smaller orders saw a net inflow of 56.23 million yuan [2] - Over the past five days, the net inflow of major funds was 11.57 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - As of September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53 points, up 34.43 points, with a gain of 0.90% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43 points, up 270.43 points, with a gain of 2.05% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3238.01 points, up 86.48 points, with a gain of 2.74% [1] Stock Performance - A total of 39 A-shares had a turnover rate exceeding 20% on this day, indicating significant trading activity [1] - Notable stocks with high turnover rates include: - C Haocreat (301668) with a turnover rate of 62.30% and a closing price of 58.78 yuan, down 3.73% [1] - C Jianfa Zhi (301584) with a turnover rate of 61.32% and a closing price of 34.12 yuan, up 13.73% [1] - Jin Hua New Materials (920015) with a turnover rate of 53.44% and a closing price of 53.00 yuan, down 3.58% [1] - Other stocks with notable turnover rates include: - C United Motion (301656) at 41.80% and a closing price of 32.77 yuan, up 3.87% [1] - Zhongdian Xinlong (002298) at 39.78% and a closing price of 11.99 yuan, down 6.77% [1] - Chuling Information (300250) at 35.58% and a closing price of 26.40 yuan, up 20.00% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Huijin Co., Ltd. (300368) had a turnover rate of 33.76% and closed at 19.08 yuan, up 20.00% [1] - Li Hexing (301013) closed at 30.75 yuan with a turnover rate of 33.58%, up 5.56% [1] - Other stocks with significant trading activity include: - Weili Transmission (300904) at 31.67% and a closing price of 85.80 yuan, up 8.24% [1] - Huarun Technology (002453) at 31.36% and a closing price of 7.90 yuan, down 10.02% [1]

Core Insights - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a decline of 0.9% on September 29, with Jihong Co., Ltd. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Market Performance - Jihong Co., Ltd. saw a significant drop of 9.94%, closing at 18.76, with a trading volume of 590,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.12 billion [2] - Other notable declines included Liren Lizhuang at -5.00% and Saiwei Times at -2.21% [2] - In contrast, Xinghui Co. and Yiwang Yichuang had increases of 6.09% and 3.28%, respectively [1][2] Capital Flow - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 66.26 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 0.98 million [2][3] - Yiwang Yichuang attracted the most institutional investment with a net inflow of 75.84 million, despite a total net outflow from retail investors of 86.94 million [3] - Other companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology also saw mixed capital flows, with varying degrees of institutional and retail investor activity [3]

Group 1 - The company, Jihong Co., Ltd. (stock code: 02603), announced a share buyback on September 26, 2025, spending 20.0385 million yuan to repurchase 2.274 million A-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jihong Co., Ltd. announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 2.274 million A-shares for a total expenditure of 20.0385 million yuan [1] Group 1 - The company will execute the buyback on September 26, 2025 [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is approximately 20.0385 million yuan [1] - The number of shares to be repurchased is 2.274 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jihong Co., Ltd. has released positive news regarding its financial performance, with significant growth expected in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by its cross-border social e-commerce and packaging businesses [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 209 million and 222 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.00% to 65.00% [3]. - The company expects a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of between 200 million and 214 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 65.72% to 76.86% compared to the previous year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the projected net profit is between 90.6 million and 104 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 45.40% to 67.01% [3]. Business Growth - Jihong Co. has achieved substantial growth in both its cross-border social e-commerce and packaging sectors, with the former showing a revenue increase of 52.91% to 2.116 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The packaging business generated 1.115 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 10.04% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the Chinese paper packaging market and is a significant player in the cross-border social e-commerce sector [5]. Market Expansion - Jihong Co. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May 2025, becoming the first A+H listed company in the cross-border social e-commerce and fast-moving consumer goods packaging sectors [6]. - The company reported that its revenue from overseas markets reached 2.274 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.36%, highlighting the importance of international markets for its growth [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has actively engaged in share buybacks and dividend distributions to enhance shareholder returns, repurchasing 4.0507 million shares for a total of 61.12 million yuan [4]. - Jihong Co. distributed cash dividends totaling 59.7571 million yuan for the 2024 fiscal year and plans to distribute 79.6685 million yuan for the first half of 2025, which is 67.43% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. Research and Development - Jihong Co. maintains a research and development expense ratio of over 2%, with R&D expenses exceeding 1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, R&D expenses increased by 5.51% to 67.39 million yuan, contributing to the company's innovation-driven growth strategy [6]. Financial Health - As of June 2025, Jihong Co. reported total assets of 4.065 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.43% [7]. - The company experienced a significant increase in net cash flow from operating activities, rising by 377.80% to 183 million yuan [7].

Group 1 - Jihong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [1] - The company's Q3 net profit is projected to be 91-104 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 47-68% [1] - The strong performance is driven by dual main businesses: cross-border e-commerce and packaging, benefiting from market expansion and brand development [1] Group 2 - The cross-border e-commerce segment leverages AI algorithms for precise customer targeting, creating a "goods find people" model distinct from traditional platforms [1] - The packaging business enhances operational efficiency through long-term partnerships with industry leaders and experiences a surge in demand due to the food-grade packaging needs from the food delivery sector [1] - The company is positioned for high-quality growth through digitalization and globalization strategies in both main business areas [1] Group 3 - The retail sector index reported a decline of 4.32% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [7] - Among retail sub-sectors, the branded cosmetics segment experienced the smallest decline, while the watch and jewelry sector has been leading since the beginning of 2025 [7] - Notable stock performances include Ningbo Zhongbai (+24.7%), Jihong Co., Ltd. (+16.7%), and Xinghui Co., Ltd. (+10.5%) [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 4.32% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [6][13] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies, such as Jihong Co., which is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [7][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2281.69 points, ranking 29th among 31 primary industries [6][13] - The brand cosmetics sector experienced the smallest decline of 1.31% during the week, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 26.87% [18][20] Company Performance Highlights - Jihong Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, driven by its dual business model of cross-border e-commerce and packaging [4][26] - Old Puhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [36][37] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.3% [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the gold and jewelry sector, such as Old Puhuang and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from emotional consumption trends [7][31] - Emphasize the importance of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31][32] - Highlight the potential of domestic beauty brands, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya, which are positioned well in the high-end market [32][33]

Group 1: TOPTOY IPO and Financial Performance - TOP TOY submitted an IPO application, with self-developed products accounting for nearly 50% of GMV[1] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was RMB 679 million, RMB 1.461 billion, RMB 1.909 billion, and RMB 1.360 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB -38 million, RMB 212 million, RMB 294 million, and RMB 180 million[1] - In 2024, TOP TOY achieved a GMV of RMB 2.4 billion in mainland China, with self-developed product revenue close to 50%[1] Group 2: Jihong Co. Q3 Performance Forecast - Jihong Co. expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between RMB 256.74 million and RMB 270.21 million, a year-on-year increase of 95.07% to 105.31%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB 208.74 million and RMB 222.21 million, with a year-on-year growth of 55.00% to 65.00%[2] - For Q3 2025, net profit is expected to be between RMB 120.11 million and RMB 133.58 million, a year-on-year increase of 83.03% to 103.55%[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI technology upgrades, with beneficiaries including Keri International, Jiao Dian Technology, and Lan Sheng Co.[3] - New retail sector expected to perform beyond expectations, with beneficiaries including Miniso and Pop Mart[3] - Consumption recovery and cyclical sectors are anticipated to rebound, benefiting companies like Misu Group and Haidilao[3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a shift in investment focus, moving from high-performing sectors like AI computing to lower-performing sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, and real estate, driven by pre-holiday effects and a "high-cut low" strategy [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investor enthusiasm remains high with trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, but the leading sectors have changed, with oil and petrochemicals gaining traction while technology sectors like media and computing are declining [1][4]. - The "high-cut low" phenomenon is evident, with low-positioned sectors like oil and real estate leading gains, while previously strong sectors are underperforming [4][5]. - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns about capital outflows at the end of the quarter, leading to rapid sector rotations [5]. Group 2: Earnings Outlook - As the third quarter approaches, there is optimism regarding earnings certainty and high growth, particularly in the computing sector, with many investors waiting to "buy the dip" [3][6]. - Companies in the computing sector are expected to report significant earnings growth, with 13 listed companies already disclosing positive forecasts for the third quarter [7]. - Specific companies like Brother Technology and Changchuan Technology are projected to see substantial profit increases, with Brother Technology forecasting a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 253.42% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 3: Performance Lock-in - Several companies in the AI computing and application sectors have already "locked in" significant earnings growth, with examples including Xinyi and Zhongji Xuchuang, which have reported substantial profit increases compared to last year [9][10]. - The analysis indicates that 15 companies have exceeded last year's profit levels, suggesting a strong likelihood of continued growth in the upcoming earnings reports [10][12].