Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, but a 7.4% increase when excluding large order impacts [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 850 million yuan, down 60% [1] - In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 306% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] Small Molecule CDMO Business - The small molecule CDMO business generated a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 31%, but an 8.9% increase when excluding large order impacts [2] - Revenue from clinical stage projects was 1.77 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, with 456 clinical projects delivered, including 73 Phase III projects, an increase of 4 projects year-on-year [2] - Revenue from commercial stage projects was 2.8 billion yuan, down 45%, but up 4.2% when excluding large orders, with 48 commercial projects delivered, an increase of 8 projects year-on-year [2] Emerging Business - The emerging business segment achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [3] Large Molecule Chemistry Business - The large molecule chemistry business saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 13%, with Q4 showing over 200% growth quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company has a backlog of orders that increased by over 130% year-on-year, with overseas orders up by 260% [4] - Expected revenue for this segment is projected to more than double in 2025, with peptide solid-phase synthesis capacity expected to reach 30,000L by the second half of 2025 [4] Formulation Business - The formulation business experienced a slight decline in revenue due to the domestic investment environment and increased market competition [5] Biologics Business - The biologics segment focused on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), achieving a revenue increase of 13.9% year-on-year, with 15 new ADC IND projects and 3 BLA projects added [6] - The current backlog includes nearly 60 orders, with over 60% being ADC projects [6] - The company signed new orders that increased by approximately 20% year-on-year, with faster growth in orders from European and American clients [6] Investment Rating - The company maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating, with projected revenues of 6.6 billion, 7.6 billion, and 8.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.57 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 27, 23, and 18 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 97.92 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 81.05 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25.8% in 2024, but excluding the impact of a large order from the previous year, there was a 7.4% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 58.2% [7]. - The small molecule CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is steadily growing, with a revenue of 45.7 billion CNY in 2024, showing an 8.9% increase when excluding large orders. The company has a robust order reserve for commercialized projects [7]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in chemical and biological macromolecules, are accelerating growth, with a 13.3% increase in revenue for the chemical macromolecule segment in 2024. The company expects significant growth in this area in 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 58.0 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 66.7 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 14.9%. The net profit is expected to rise to 11.1 billion CNY, marking a 16.4% increase [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.06 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 23, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][10]. Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment is expected to see revenue growth of 10.7% in 2025, with a gross margin of 48.5%. The emerging business segment is projected to grow by 31.4% in 2025, with a gross margin of 26.7% [8][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in the production of GLP-1 peptide projects, with significant increases in production capacity expected in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The report compares the company to peers such as WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 23, slightly lower than the company's valuation. The company is considered a leader in the small molecule CDMO space, justifying a premium valuation [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 97.16, unchanged from the previous rating [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in new orders and a recovery in regular business, with a positive outlook for long-term growth potential [3][12]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 25.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, down 58.2% [12]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 15.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 306.5% [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 6.631 billion yuan (+14.2%) - 2026E Revenue: 7.794 billion yuan (+17.5%) - 2027E Revenue: 9.316 billion yuan (+19.5%) - 2025E Net Profit: 1.092 billion yuan (+15.1%) - 2026E Net Profit: 1.277 billion yuan (+16.9%) - 2027E Net Profit: 1.524 billion yuan (+19.3%) [5][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected at 3.03 yuan, with subsequent years showing growth to 4.23 yuan by 2027E [12]. Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 29.226 billion yuan, with a current share price of 81.05 yuan [6][12]. - The stock has traded within a range of 60.13 to 91.55 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6]. Business Development - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year increase in new orders, particularly from clients in Europe and the United States, with a total backlog of orders amounting to 10.52 billion USD [12]. - The establishment of a new research and pilot base in Europe is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and order acquisition [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has achieved steady revenue growth in its emerging business segments and maintains a strong order backlog, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [4][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 5.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.82%. Excluding the impact of large orders from the previous year, revenue grew by 7.40%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, operating revenue reached 1.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, with net profit of 239 million yuan, up 306.48% [4][6] Business Segment Performance - Small molecule CDMO business generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, with an 8.85% year-on-year increase after excluding large orders. The gross margin for this segment was 47.95%. The company delivered 48 commercial projects and added 8 new commercial projects [7] - Emerging business revenue was 1.226 billion yuan, a 2.25% year-on-year increase. The gross margin for this segment was 21.67%, with an upward trend expected in the second half of 2024 [8] - Clinical CRO business saw a slight revenue decline, with 197 new projects initiated. The company is currently managing 269 clinical research projects [8] - The biopharmaceutical CDMO business focused on ADC projects, with a revenue increase of 13.91% and a significant order backlog [8] Order Backlog and Market Expansion - The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in new orders, with a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, reflecting strong demand from the US and European markets [11] - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new facilities in Europe and ongoing projects in the US, contributing to revenue growth from these regions [11] Financial Forecast - The company expects EPS of 3.03, 3.60, and 4.42 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 90.87 to 106.01 yuan based on a PE ratio of 30-35 for 2025 [11][13]

凯莱英（002821.SZ）2024 年年报点评 盈利能力稳步提升，新签订单持续向上 2025 年 04 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 29 日，凯莱英发布 2024 年年报业绩。2024 年公司实 现营业收入 58.05 亿元，同比下降 25.82%，剔除上年同期大订单影响后营业收 入同比增长 7.40%；归母净利润 9.48 亿元，同比下降 58.17%；扣非净利润 8.50 亿元，同比下降 59.63%。单季度看，公司 Q4 实现收入 16.64 亿元，同比上升 15.41%；归母净利润 2.39 亿元，同比上升 306.51%；扣非净利润 1.86 亿元， 同比上升 171.45%。 ➢ 盈利能力同比改善明显，环比略有波动。单季度来看，公司 2024 年 Q4 毛 利率 39.26%，同比+1.23pcts，环比-7.06pcts，净利率 14.34%，同比 +10.27pcts，环比-0.30pcts，主要系费用率得到进一步优化。从费用端来看， 研发费用率 7.83%，同比-5.67pcts，环比-2.94pcts，另外销售费用率 4.58%， 同比+0.59pcts，环比+0.09 ...

业绩符合市场预期，化学大分子业务将为25 年贡献业绩弹性 事件概述 公司发布2024 年报：24 年实现营业收入58.05 亿元，同比下降25.82%、实现归母净利润9.49 亿元，同 比下降58.17%、实现扣非净利润8.50 亿元，同比下降59.63%。 分析判断: 公司作为国内领先的小分子CDMO 供应商，展望未来持续深耕小分子"中间体+API+制剂"一体化服务能 力，另外在合成大分子和生物大分子领域持续强化布局，为公司的中长期业绩增长保驾护航。考虑到国 内外投融资环境持续低迷等因素，调整前期盈利预测， 即24-26 年营业收入从69.28/82.13/NA 亿元调整 为66.48/76.15/88.09 亿元， EPS 从3.44/4.32/NA 元调整为3.20/3.63/4.19 元，对应2025 年03 月28 日79.66 元/股收盘价，PE 分别为25/22/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 核心技术骨干及管理层流失风险、竞争加剧的风险、核心技术人员流失风险、汇率波动风险。 ADC 业务处于战略培育期，将为未来业绩增长奠定基础。公司生物大分子CDMO 业务24 年收入同比增 长13.9 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 03 月 31 日 凯莱英 (002821) ——订单快速增长，预计 25 年恢复双位数增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 78.75 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 94.28/59.55 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,307 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,335.75/10,504.33 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 45.81 | | 资产负债率% | 12.58 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 361/321 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/28 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-01 05-01 06-01 07-01 08-01 09-01 10-01 11-01 12-01 01-01 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 91.80 CNY for the next six months [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.805 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 25.82% year-on-year, but excluding large orders, revenue grew by 7.4% [2][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 10.52 billion USD in hand orders for 2024, representing a growth of over 20% year-on-year, indicating potential operational improvement in 2025 [3][10]. - The company is expanding its global supply network, having taken over the Sandwich Site in the UK, which is now operational and securing various orders across multiple fields [4][10]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the small molecule business generated revenue of 4.571 billion CNY, with an 8.85% increase when excluding large orders, while emerging businesses achieved 1.226 billion CNY, a 2.25% increase [2][3]. - The net profit for 2024 was 949 million CNY, down 58.17% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of COVID-19 large orders, capacity ramp-up, and investments in new technology [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits of 1.104 billion CNY, 1.287 billion CNY, and 1.481 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 16.6%, and 15.1% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.06 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times, supporting the target price of 91.80 CNY [10][11]. Operational Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its small molecule CDMO services, with a rich project pipeline including 383 preclinical and early clinical projects, 73 clinical III projects, and 48 commercial projects in 2024 [3][10]. - The chemical macromolecule CDMO business is also expected to see significant growth, with over 10 projects in the validation phase anticipated for 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company has shown resilient growth by excluding large orders, with profitability returning to a higher level. The revenue for 2024 was reported at 5.805 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 25.82%, while the net profit was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company has proposed a dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares [3][4]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total order amount of 1.052 billion USD, representing a year-over-year growth of over 20%, which is expected to significantly cover revenue for 2025 [6][8]. - The company is expanding its global footprint to mitigate geopolitical risks, with the Sandwich base in the UK operational since August 2024, and a Boston R&D center in progress. This strategy aims to attract clients who prefer not to outsource offshore while maintaining competitive cost levels [8][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 25.82%. The net profit was 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company expects a revenue increase to 6.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 15.4% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 42.4%, with expectations for a slight recovery to 43.7% in 2025 [10]. Business Segments - The small molecule chemistry segment generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.85% year-over-year growth when excluding large orders. The segment's gross margin was 47.95% [6][8]. - Emerging businesses achieved revenue of 1.226 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 2.25%. The gross margin for this segment was 21.67% [8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.126 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 18.7%. The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 1.378 billion yuan and 1.740 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a continued upward trend [10][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow from operating activities, projected at 1.980 billion yuan for 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 25.82%, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [3]. - The company’s core small molecule chemistry business generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 8.85% when excluding large orders. The gross margin for this segment was 47.95% [6]. - The company has signed new orders that are expected to grow by approximately 20% year-over-year, with a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, which is expected to significantly cover revenue for 2025 [6][7]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with the opening of the Sandwich base in the UK, which is expected to enhance its ability to meet overseas customer needs and mitigate geopolitical risks [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, with a net profit of 949 million yuan. The revenue is projected to increase to 6.700 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 1.126 billion yuan [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.4% in 2024 to 43.7% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 16.3% to 16.8% [9]. Business Segments - The small molecule chemistry segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected revenue increase to 6.700 billion yuan in 2025 [5][6]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in the chemical macromolecule sector, are anticipated to accelerate, with 13 new projects expected by 2025 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioning itself to capture opportunities in the peptide and small nucleic acid markets, enhancing its competitive edge [7]. - The establishment of overseas bases is aimed at attracting clients who prefer not to outsource offshore, thereby maintaining a cost advantage over local competitors [7].