Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are experiencing significant changes in their business structures, particularly in the consumer loan sector, amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment and tightening interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Growth - The total consumer loan balance has surged by nearly 750 billion yuan, with most banks reporting substantial increases in their consumer loan portfolios [3][5]. - Among 23 listed banks, only six reported a decrease in consumer loan balances for 2024, with Ping An Bank seeing the largest reduction of 70.63 billion yuan [5]. - Major banks like Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China have reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with increases of 17.88%, 26.21%, and 38.03% respectively [6][7]. Group 2: Risk Management Concerns - Industry insiders express concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) in the consumer loan sector, indicating that banks must tighten risk controls as economic cycles fluctuate [2][12]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have reported increases in their consumer loan NPL ratios, highlighting the need for enhanced risk management strategies [12][13]. - The rapid growth of consumer loans has raised alarms about potential risks, with banks emphasizing the importance of maintaining asset quality and effective post-loan management [12][14]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - In March, regulatory changes extended the repayment period for consumer loans from five to seven years and increased the maximum loan amount, aiming to support consumer spending [10]. - Following these changes, banks quickly halted low-interest consumer loans to prevent a price war that could lead to increased risks [12]. - The competitive landscape for consumer loans is shifting, with banks focusing on the relatively lower costs and stable returns associated with consumer lending compared to corporate lending [9].

Group 1 - The retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 23 listed banks continues to rise, with a slight decrease in overall NPL ratio to 1.25% as of Q4 2024, down 2bps from Q4 2023. However, retail loan NPL ratios have generally increased, with state-owned banks seeing an average rise of 29bps compared to Q4 2023 [1][2][3] - The average retail credit cost for listed banks in 2024 is 1.24%, a decrease of 3bps year-on-year. State-owned banks have a lower average retail credit cost of 0.99%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-risk personal housing loans [2][3] - Looking ahead, banks are expected to manage retail loan risks by tightening customer eligibility and employing various asset disposal strategies, with the impact on asset quality being relatively controllable [4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the retail loan structure of banks has shifted, with personal housing loans making up an average of 60.9% of the total retail loans for state-owned banks, which is 17.6 percentage points higher than the sample average [2][16] - Specific banks such as Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank have seen a decrease in retail credit costs, with Ping An Bank's credit cost dropping by 34bps year-on-year, largely due to a reduction in credit card NPLs [3][4] - The report suggests that banks like Postal Savings Bank have improved their asset quality, with a notable decrease in consumer loan NPLs by 12.2 billion yuan, resulting in a NPL ratio decline of 47bps to 1.34% [4][8]

Core Insights - The financial reports of 23 A-share listed banks for 2024 show stable revenue and profit, with total revenue at 5.04 trillion yuan and net profit at 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% in revenue and a growth of 1.88% in profit [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for the 23 listed banks in 2024 is 5.04 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the previous year [2] - The six major state-owned banks reported a total revenue of 3.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 94.25 billion yuan from last year [2] - Among the state-owned banks, Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank experienced revenue declines of 2.54% and 2.52%, respectively [2] - In contrast, most city and rural commercial banks showed revenue growth, with eight banks reporting increases, including Ruifeng Bank and Changshu Bank, which grew by 15.29% and 10.53% respectively [2] Net Profit Performance - The net profit for the 23 listed banks totaled 1.93 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.88% [3] - State-owned banks achieved a combined net profit of 1.42 trillion yuan, with Agricultural Bank leading the growth at 4.76% [3] - Among the listed joint-stock banks, three reported declines in net profit, with Minsheng Bank experiencing a notable drop of 9.07% [3] Net Interest Margin Trends - The average net interest margin for the 23 listed banks in 2024 was 1.65%, down from 1.83% in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 19 basis points [5][6] - The net interest margin for major state-owned banks is generally below 1.5%, with only Postal Savings Bank exceeding this threshold at 1.87% [6][7] Asset Quality and Risks - Overall asset quality among listed banks is improving, with most banks reporting a decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios [9] - However, there are structural risks, particularly in personal operating loans, which have seen a significant increase in both scale and NPL ratios, averaging 1.81% across ten banks, up 29 basis points from 2023 [9][10] - The total balance of personal operating loans across 19 banks reached 8.32 trillion yuan, a 40.8% increase from the previous year [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the net profit of listed banks is expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year for 2024, with a notable increase in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [4][10]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.6% for 2024, an improvement from -1.6% in the previous quarters [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic economic recovery and the impact of recent growth-stabilizing policies on banking performance [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Breakdown - The net interest income for listed banks is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2024, an improvement from a 3.2% decline in the first three quarters [11][12]. - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, is projected to increase by 28% due to falling bond yields, partially offsetting revenue pressures [11][12]. - The report notes that the cost-to-income ratio has increased to 32.8%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point rise year-on-year [7]. 2. Operational Analysis - Asset growth for listed banks has decreased to 7.2%, with loan growth at 7.7%, indicating stable overall growth despite a slight decline [22][23]. - The annualized net interest margin is projected to decrease to 1.43%, primarily due to asset pricing pressures [24]. - The report indicates that the quality of assets remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios showing slight fluctuations but overall stability [7][22]. 3. Dividend and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a stable dividend payout ratio, with 9 banks increasing their dividend rates compared to the previous year [7]. - Investment recommendations focus on "pro-cyclical and high dividend" strategies, with an average dividend yield of 4.3% for the sector, which remains attractive compared to risk-free rates [7][8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Chengdu Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, which are expected to benefit from regional economic recovery [8][14].

Core Viewpoint - Zhangjiagang Bank reported a revenue of 4.71 billion with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and net profit growth of 5.1%, showing resilience in performance [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.05%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -12.6% and 96.8%, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in non-interest income [2] Loan and Asset Growth - The growth rate of interest-earning assets and loans is 4% and 8%, respectively, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [3] - New loans for the year totaled 10.2 billion, with a decrease in financial investments and interbank assets [3] - The bank's focus on corporate and retail loans remains strong, with corporate loans accounting for 53.2% of total loans [3] Deposit Trends - Deposit growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in total deposits [5] - The proportion of time deposits continues to rise, reaching 79.4% by year-end [5] - New deposits for the year totaled 10.1 billion, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [5] Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the year is 1.62%, showing a "L"-shaped trend with a decrease of 37 basis points year-on-year [6] - Non-interest income reached 1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 97%, driven by bond trading [7][8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at 0.94%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is 376%, maintaining a high level of risk buffer [9] Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.1%, reflecting an increase due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10] - The bank's risk-weighted assets (RWA) growth rate is 6.7%, showing a slowdown in asset expansion [10] Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on the local market, particularly in personal business loans, and is expanding its presence in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nantong [11] - The strategy aims to enhance loan growth and improve asset pricing [11]

2025 年 4 月 1 日 公司研究 业绩增长韧性较强，转债转股增厚股本 ——张家港行（002839.SZ）2024 年年报点评 增持（下调） 当前价：4.25 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 24.44 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 103.88 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 3.56/4.98 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 111.73% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 2.73 | -2.55 | 2.49 | | 绝对 | 2.66 | -5.35 | 12.38 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件： 3 月 28 日，张家港行发布 2024 年年报， ...

Core Insights - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) reported growth in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, alongside an expansion in asset size, but faces challenges such as a significant drop in interest income and negative operating cash flow [1][4]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of Zhangjiagang Bank reached 218.91 billion yuan, an increase of 5.69% compared to the previous year [1]. - The bank's operating revenue for 2024 was 4.711 billion yuan, up 3.75% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.879 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.13% increase [1]. - Interest income decreased significantly, with net interest income at 3.379 billion yuan, down 12.55% year-on-year, and the net interest margin fell from 1.99% in 2023 to 1.62% in 2024, a decline of 0.37 percentage points [1]. Income Structure - Non-interest income showed significant volatility, with investment income rising to 1.290 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 176.81% year-on-year, attributed to a large increase in the scale of bond trading accounts [1]. - Fair value changes resulted in a loss of 104 million yuan, contrasting with a profit of 63 million yuan in the previous year, primarily due to valuation changes in trading financial assets [1]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.94%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a low level of asset quality risk [2]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 376.03%, down by 48.20 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - Capital adequacy ratios were reported at 13.57%, with a tier 1 capital ratio of 12.40% and a core tier 1 capital ratio of 11.08% [2]. Cash Flow Analysis - The bank experienced a rare negative operating cash flow of -420 million yuan for 2024, a decline of 123.38% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The negative cash flow indicates that the bank's daily operations were unable to cover operational expenses, suggesting potential pressures in cash collection and fund utilization [4]. - The decline in cash flow was primarily due to reduced cash inflows from deposit absorption and the sale of repurchase agreements compared to the previous period [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 4.95 [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth in net profit of 5.1%, operating income of 3.8%, and PPOP of 5.5% for 2024, although the net profit is slightly below expectations due to pressure on net interest income [1][2]. - The company is focusing on small and micro-enterprise transformation, which is anticipated to provide a valuation premium [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts total assets, loans, and deposits to grow by 5.7%, 8.0%, and 6.4% respectively, with a slight decline in growth rates compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is projected at 1.62%, showing a slight increase from the previous period [2]. - Non-interest income is expected to increase significantly, with investment income rising by 124.1% year-on-year [3]. Capital and Asset Quality - The capital adequacy ratio and core tier 1 capital ratio are projected to be 13.57% and 11.08% respectively, indicating a solid capital position [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 376% [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is projected to have a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.63 for 2025, with a target price of RMB 4.95, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [5]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 1.94 billion, with a growth rate of 3.48% [29].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 4.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.879 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.13% compared to the previous year [1] - As of the end of 2024, total assets amounted to 218.908 billion yuan, representing a growth of 5.69% from the end of 2023 [1] Group 2: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.94%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - The provision coverage ratio was 376.03%, indicating a high level of risk resistance despite a slight decrease from the previous year [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a "11183" strategic system aimed at becoming a benchmark for high-quality development within the rural commercial bank sector [2] - Focus areas include enhancing inclusive financial services and increasing credit support for small and micro enterprises and the agricultural sector [2] - The company has implemented a "grid visit + anti-fraud" model to strengthen its inclusive customer base [2] Group 4: Financial Market Development - The company has developed a robust investment banking segment, optimizing its liability structure and actively engaging in investment activities [3] - By the end of 2024, the wealth management scale reached 20.902 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 456.85% in the agency sales of wealth management products [3] - The company aims to deepen its inclusive finance, strengthen corporate finance, and specialize in financial market operations as part of its future vision [3]

关于江苏张家港农村商业银行股份有限公司 2024 年度非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来的专项说明 XYZH/2025NJAA2B0022 江苏张家港农村商业银行股份有限公司 江苏张家港农村商业银行股份有限公司全体股东： 我们按照中国注册会计师审计准则审计了江苏张家港农村商业银行股份有限公司 （以下简称"张家港行"）2024 年度财务报表，包括 2024 年 12 月 31 日的合并及母公司 资产负债表、2024 年度的合并及母公司利润表、合并及母公司现金流量表、合并及母公 司 股 东 权 益 变 动 表 以 及 财 务 报 表 附 注 ， 并 于 2025 年 3 月 28 日 出 具 了 XYZH/2025NJAA2B0021 号无保留意见的审计报告。 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司监管指引第 8 号——上市公司资金往来、 对外担保的监管要求》（证监会公告[2022]26 号），以及深圳证券交易所相关披露的要求， 张家港行编制了本专项说明所附的张家港行 2024 年度非经营性资金占用及其他关联资 金往来情况汇总表（以下简称汇总表）。编制和对外披露汇总表，并确保其真实性、准确 性及完整性是张家港行的责 ...