Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to continue, enhancing domestic asset attractiveness and improving the competitiveness of export products [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12% respectively, indicating strong performance potential in the current cycle [2] - The current RMB appreciation is anticipated to create a triple resonance effect in the sector, leading to cost reduction, increased demand, and valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections Cost Side - RMB appreciation reduces the import cost of raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2] Demand Side - Domestic demand recovery is a fundamental support for the strengthening RMB. The appreciation will lower inventory replenishment costs for companies, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active replenishment, thus reinforcing domestic demand resilience [2] Capital Side - The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The food and beverage sector, with a high proportion of foreign holdings, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery driven by increased foreign allocation [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of investment: 1. Cost benefits: Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3] 2. Demand recovery: Recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Livestock, Modern Dairy, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3] 3. Valuation recovery: Recommended companies include Yili, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies and their respective ratings, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 are provided, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the sector [7]

西麦食品 20260121 摘要 受益于澳大利亚燕麦丰收，预计 2026 年燕麦采购均价同比下降至少 10%，并有望在 2027 年继续维持下行趋势，成本下降将显著提升公司 毛利率，预计澳大利亚燕麦成本每下降 10%将带动公司毛利率提升 2 个 百分点。 公司持续优化产品结构，推出高端有机燕麦和复合燕麦，其毛利率比普 通纯燕麦高 8~10 个百分点，且销售占比快速提升，同时开发礼盒产品 和高附加值产品，对毛利率形成正向贡献。 随着收入规模突破 20 亿，公司受益于规模效应，销售费用率逐步下降。 自 2027 年起，公司将优化线上线下渠道费用结构，加强线上精准营销， 并调整传统 KA 商超费用结构，预计未来 2~3 年销售费用率稳步下降。 公司未来两到三年收入预期稳定，预计实现约 20%的稳定增长，主要驱 动力来自新品迭代和渠道开拓，包括深耕纯燕麦、复合燕麦及冷食燕麦 三大品类，以及大健康板块的新品落地。 大健康板块作为第二增长曲线，自 2024 年以来持续落地药食同源粉 （如黄芪人参粉）、蛋白粉、口服液及减脂控能产品等新品，有望为中 期收入贡献增量，预计到 2028 年收入规模将突破。 Q&A 公司未来两到三 ...

继2024年被抽检出霉菌超标后，"中国燕麦第一股"西麦食品（002956）又因菌落总数不合格被"点名"。 西麦方面回应《国际金融报》记者，两次不合格产品均源于同一经销商的流通环节管控不当，目前涉事经销商已终止合作。 菌落总数不合格 近日，国家市场监督管理总局发布最新一期食品安全监督抽检结果，在对2136批次样品的抽检中，共检出40批次样品不合格。其中，西麦食品旗下、由河 北西麦公司生产的"中老年营养燕麦片"被抽检出菌落总数不符合食品安全国家标准规定。 不合格产品信息表显示，这款中老年营养燕麦片规格为700g（28g×25）/袋，于2024年6月生产，保质期18个月。抽检的5个样品菌落总数检测值分别为 3.4×10000CFU/g、4.9×10000CFU/g、1.8×10000CFU/g、1.5×10000CFU/g、2.5×10000CFU/g。 淘宝旗舰店内，涉事款中老年营养燕麦片链接已售出1万多单。 | | | | | | | 方便食品监督抽检不合格产品信息 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

证券日报网讯1月21日，西麦食品（002956）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月20日， 公司股东户数为10652户。 ...

针对抽检发现的不合格食品，相关省级市场监管部门已组织开展核查处置。1月20日，北京商报记者通 过官网联系方式致电西麦食品了解进一步情况，但电话未有人接听。 北京商报讯（记者 郭秀娟 王悦彤） 1月20日，北京商报记者获悉，市场监管总局近期组织开展食品安 全监督抽检，共计抽检2136批次样品，检出40批次样品不合格。其中，1批次由西麦食品生产的中老年 营养燕麦片被检出菌落总数超标。抽检通告显示，甘肃省兰州市七里河区维云副食经销部销售的、标称 广西壮族自治区桂林西麦食品集团出品、河北西麦食品有限公司生产的中老年营养燕麦片（700克（28 克×25）/袋，2024/6/25），检出菌落总数超标，不符合食品安全国家标准规定。 ...

新京报讯(记者刘欢)1月20日，新京报记者获悉，市场监管总局近期组织开展食品安全监督抽检，共计 抽检2136批次样品，检出40批次样品不合格。其中，1批次由西麦食品（002956）生产的中老年营养燕 麦片，被检出菌落总数超标。 抽检通告显示，甘肃省兰州市七里河区维云副食经销部销售的、标称广西壮族自治区桂林西麦食品集团 出品、河北西麦食品有限公司生产的中老年营养燕麦片(700克(28克×25)/袋，2024/6/25)，检出菌落总数 超标，不符合食品安全国家标准规定。 据悉，菌落总数属于指示性微生物指标，而非致病菌指标，主要反映食品在生产过程中的卫生状况。如 果食品的菌落总数严重超标，不仅会破坏食品的营养成分，使食品失去食用价值，还会加速食品腐败变 质。而糕点、冲调谷物制品、即食藻类制品中菌落总数超标的原因，可能是企业未按要求严格控制生产 加工过程的卫生条件；也可能与产品包装密封不严或储运条件不当等有关。 针对抽检发现的不合格食品，相关省级市场监管部门已组织开展核查处置。对于涉事产品的不合格原因 以及后续处理，1月20日，新京报记者按照官网留存的联系方式致电西麦食品，但无人接听。 ...

1月16日，国家市场监管总局发布的食品抽检通报显示，1批次西麦食品的中老年营养燕麦片被抽检出菌 落总数超标，被判定为不合格产品。 1月20日，西麦食品向南都湾财社记者表示，针对此事公司已在第一时间关注，该事件发生在2024年， 当年公司已全力配合当地监管部门完成调查，并确认问题不在生产企业，而出现在经销商环节，且后续 监管部门已对涉事经销商进行处置，公司已加强对经销商流通环节的监管，目前产品质量完全没有问 题。 西麦食品（002956）创立于1994年，2019年在深交所挂牌上市，为"燕麦第一股"。最新财报显示，2025 年前三季度，公司营收同比增长18.34%至16.96亿元， 归母净利润同比增长21.90%至1.32亿元。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 产品信息显示，该批次燕麦为广西壮族自治区桂林西麦食品集团出品、河北西麦食品有限公司生产，规 格为700克（28克×25）/袋，生产日期为2024年6月25日，保质期18个月。 ...

Group 1 - The leisure food sector increased by 1.54% on January 20, with Wancheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the leisure food sector showed significant price movements, with Wancheng Group rising by 6.04% to a closing price of 212.00 [1] Group 2 - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 60.30 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 75.82 million yuan [2] - Notable declines were observed in stocks such as Three Squirrels, which fell by 2.07% to a closing price of 24.58 [2] - The trading volume and turnover for various stocks in the sector varied, with significant activity noted in stocks like Haoxiangni and Ximai Food [2] Group 3 - Haoxiangni had a net inflow of 79.89 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 78.76 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ximai Food also saw a net inflow of 10.14 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow [3] - The data indicates varying levels of investor interest across different stocks within the leisure food sector, highlighting the dynamics of institutional versus retail investment [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, highlighting a seasonal uptick in demand during spring [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption, particularly in the restaurant and food supply sectors, supported by government initiatives to boost consumer spending [2]. Key Companies and Recommendations - **Snack Food Companies**: - Recommended leading snack brands include Wanchen Group, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong, Youyou, and Ganyuan [1][2]. - **Restaurant Supply Chain**: - Key players include Babi, Anjins, Guoquan, and Yihai International, along with Baoli Foods and Lihai Foods [1][2]. - **Beverage Companies**: - Notable recommendations are Yangyuan Beverage and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - **Babi**: Focused on diversified growth strategies to recreate its business model [2]. - **Anjins**: Confirming a bottoming out phase and restarting growth initiatives [2]. - **Guoquan**: Demonstrating a resilient business model with accelerated store openings [2]. Market Trends and Predictions - Historical data indicates that Q1 typically shows positive performance for many restaurant companies, with factors such as market profitability, delayed corporate events, and favorable seasonal reporting expected to drive growth in Q1 2026 [3]. - The report anticipates a multi-factor resonance effect in Q1 2026, which may positively impact metrics like customer spending, same-store sales, and table turnover rates [3]. Government Initiatives - The government has implemented a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which includes measures to clear overdue payments to businesses and ensure wage payments to migrant workers [2]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the consumer sector and its role as a leader in consumption recovery, with key companies showing continued improvement [4]. - Emphasis on valuation switching as a strategy to recommend high-quality stocks such as Ximai, Babi, Guoquan, and Yanjinpuzi [4].