开源证券研报指出，西麦食品增长根基稳步夯实，利润弹性释放可期，维持"增持"评级。1月公司进入 春节旺季备货阶段，市场需求相对较好，为收入增长提供支撑，同时成本红利继续释放，有望驱动公司 盈利弹性充分兑现。2025年纯燕麦推出有机燕麦等高附加值产品表现较好，增长有所提速；复合燕麦在 老品升级和新品放量下，增速较快并贡献主要增量，预计2026年燕麦主业将继续稳扎稳打，保障收入基 本盘。同时，2025年公司积极推进大健康第二增长曲线发展，Q4推出药食同源粉，在部分区域实现较 好动销和回转表现，预计2026年全国市场铺开后，有望贡献显著增量，成为重要增长极。2025年公司线 上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在控费提效策略推动下，渠道盈利能力在 逐季改善。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from strong market demand during the Spring Festival, which will support revenue growth. Additionally, the continued release of cost benefits is anticipated to drive profit elasticity [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 180 million (+10 million), 250 million (+20 million), and 300 million (+20 million) respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 31.5%, 40.6%, and 21.2% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 36.4, 25.9, and 21.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,578 million in 2023 to 3,197 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.9%, 20.2%, 18.9%, 20.0%, and 18.2% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 115 million in 2023 to 298 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 15.4%, 31.5%, 40.6%, and 21.2% [9] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 44.5% in 2023 to 44.8% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 7.3% to 9.3% over the same period [9][12] Business Development - The company's core oat business is expected to maintain steady growth, with the introduction of high-value products like organic oats contributing positively [5] - The health-focused business segment is anticipated to develop a second growth curve, with the launch of health food products expected to generate significant incremental revenue in 2026 [5] - Online sales channels, particularly through platforms like Douyin, are projected to continue strong growth, while offline channels are expanding through new emerging markets [6]

原材料成本延续下降，叠加费用率优化，看好2026 年利润弹性 2025 年受益于澳麦原材料成本下行，公司前三季度毛利率同比提升1.03pct。2026年澳洲燕麦供需格局 继续改善，预计原料价格将延续下行趋势，驱动公司毛利率稳步上行，叠加公司费用管控能力持续优 化，盈利弹性有望加速兑现。 2025 年纯燕麦推出有机燕麦等高附加值产品表现较好，增长有所提速；复合燕麦在老品升级和新品放 量下，增速较快并贡献主要增量，预计2026 年燕麦主业将继续稳扎稳打，保障收入基本盘。同时， 2025 年公司积极推进大健康第二增长曲线发展，Q4 推出药食同源粉，在部分区域实现较好动销和回转 表现，预计2026 年全国市场铺开后，有望贡献显著增量，成为重要增长极。 线上渠道高增延续，线下新兴渠道拓展较好 2025 年公司线上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在控费提效策略推动下， 渠道盈利能力在逐季改善；天猫、京东等传统电商平台亦维持稳健增速，预计2026 年线上渠道仍将延 续高增长态势。线下渠道保持稳步增长，传统商超因调改增速放缓，新兴渠道成为线下主要增长引擎， 零食量贩持续扩充品类和门店覆盖数量，O2O 增加 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently at a phase of bottoming out, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival inventory buildup as a catalyst for growth [1][5]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a slow recovery in demand, with a focus on stabilizing expectations before discussing recovery, particularly for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [6][19]. - The snack sub-sector has shown strong performance, with significant growth in companies like Mingming Hen Mang, which plans to go public in Hong Kong [20][22]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No ratings for liquor, beverages, and food sectors [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Buy - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Increase Holding - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy [3]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.57%, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries [5][14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors were snacks, pre-processed foods, and cooked foods, with increases of 6.44%, 5.02%, and 4.25% respectively [5][14]. - The top five stocks in the sector included: - Haoxiangni (+19.59%) - Weizhi Xiang (+17.23%) - Wancheng Group (+14.32%) - Quanyuan (+13.57%) - CITIC Nia (+9.69%) [5][14]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor index fell by 2.80%, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival for potential recovery [6][19]. - Current prices for Moutai products are: - Feitian Moutai (loose bottle): 1560 RMB, up 10 RMB from last week - Pu'er Moutai: 810 RMB, unchanged from last week [6][19]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - Several companies are planning IPOs in Hong Kong, with Mingming Hen Mang aiming to raise between 32.37 billion to 33.36 billion HKD [20][22]. - The company reported a GMV of 661 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a 74.5% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - Dongpeng Beverage plans to issue 40.89 million H shares, with an expected listing date of February 3, 2026 [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food, known as the "first oat stock" in China, is facing renewed market scrutiny due to product quality issues, specifically the detection of excessive microbial counts in its "nutritional oat flakes for the elderly" [2][4][5] Group 1: Product Quality Issues - The National Market Supervision Administration reported that Ximai's oat flakes exceeded the national food safety standard for microbial counts, with all five samples tested showing levels above the acceptable limit of 10,000 CFU/g [4] - This is not the first instance of Ximai's products failing quality checks, with previous incidents of mold contamination reported in 2020 and 2024 [5] - The company attributes the recent quality issues to poor management by distributors rather than production flaws, and has initiated recalls and strengthened oversight of distribution channels [4][5] Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - Ximai Food holds a 26% market share in China's oat market, which is projected to exceed 10.134 billion yuan in 2024, but the industry's growth rate is slowing, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.1% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is facing increasing competition from both domestic and international brands, prompting it to explore new growth avenues in the health sector [6][8] - Despite being a market leader, Ximai's reliance on traditional oat products, which account for approximately 90% of its revenue, poses risks as the sector matures [8] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - In 2023, Ximai launched a probiotic protein powder, generating over 10 million yuan in sales within four months, indicating potential in the health market [6][7] - The company plans to expand its health product line in 2024, introducing various new items such as collagen peptide drinks and probiotic powders [7] - However, the contribution of these new products to overall revenue remains limited, with traditional oat products still dominating sales [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the shift to high-value health products aligns with strategic goals, Ximai must overcome challenges in consumer education and channel development to succeed [8][9] - The ongoing quality control issues may divert resources and focus from new business initiatives, potentially jeopardizing the "recreate a new Ximai" plan [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to continue, enhancing domestic asset attractiveness and improving the competitiveness of export products [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12% respectively, indicating strong performance potential in the current cycle [2] - The current RMB appreciation is anticipated to create a triple resonance effect in the sector, leading to cost reduction, increased demand, and valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections Cost Side - RMB appreciation reduces the import cost of raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2] Demand Side - Domestic demand recovery is a fundamental support for the strengthening RMB. The appreciation will lower inventory replenishment costs for companies, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active replenishment, thus reinforcing domestic demand resilience [2] Capital Side - The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The food and beverage sector, with a high proportion of foreign holdings, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery driven by increased foreign allocation [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of investment: 1. Cost benefits: Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3] 2. Demand recovery: Recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Livestock, Modern Dairy, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3] 3. Valuation recovery: Recommended companies include Yili, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies and their respective ratings, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 are provided, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the sector [7]

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ximai Foods - **Industry**: Oat Products Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Trends - Benefiting from a bumper harvest of oats in Australia, the average procurement price of oats is expected to decrease by at least 10% year-on-year in 2026, with a continued downward trend anticipated in 2027 [2][3] - The main raw material, imported oats from Australia, constitutes 35%-40% of production costs, which have been under pressure due to rising prices from 2018 to 2024 [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects a stable revenue growth of approximately 20% over the next two to three years, driven by new product iterations and channel expansion [2][5] - A 10% decrease in Australian oat costs is projected to increase the company's gross margin by 2 percentage points [2][3] - The sales expense ratio has been around 30% in recent years but is expected to decline steadily due to scale effects and channel optimization [4] Product Development and Innovation - Continuous optimization of product structure with the introduction of high-end organic oats and composite oats, which have gross margins 8-10 percentage points higher than regular oats [2][3] - Development of high-value products such as gift boxes is contributing positively to gross margins [2] Channel Strategy - The company plans to enhance online and offline channel expense structures starting in 2027, focusing on precise online marketing and adjusting traditional supermarket costs [4][7] - Emphasis on new channels such as Douyin (TikTok), snack wholesale, and O2O (Online to Offline) models to capture market share [5][6] Health and Wellness Segment - The health and wellness segment is identified as a second growth curve, with new products like medicinal food powders and protein powders expected to contribute to mid-term revenue growth [2][10] - The revenue from the health segment is projected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2026, aiming for 3 to 5 billion yuan in the following three years [10] Management and Strategic Changes - The new general manager has focused on product innovation, channel transformation, and health sector development since taking office in July 2025 [11] - A stock incentive plan was implemented in 2025, requiring a revenue growth of over 15% in the next two years to ensure stability [11] Valuation and Investment Potential - Current valuations do not reflect the potential benefits from cost reductions and growth in the health segment [12] - The company is recommended for investment focus due to expected dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by cost reductions and new channel breakthroughs [12] Additional Important Insights - The company is expected to increase its market share in the oat sector to 30% by 2027-2028, leveraging its leading position and consumer health trends [8][9] - The focus on young consumers and health-conscious demographics is driving product acceptance and market growth [8]