投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒持仓环比降低，茅台需求超韧 性超预期—行业点评报告》-2026.1.30 《黄酒复兴趋势持续，期待 2026 年有 新突破—行业点评报告》-2026.1.30 《预制菜国家标准待出台，市场集中 度有望加速提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.29 茅台春节需求韧性超预期，大众品底部改善趋势明确 食品饮料 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：茅台春节需求韧性超预期，大众品底部改善趋势明确 1 月 26 日-1 月 30 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.6%，一级子行业排名第 5 ...

4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析 食品饮料 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立省 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 任务营 SAC 证书编号: S0160524010001 renjx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《国标加速推出,利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 2026-01-23 2. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 2026-01-05 = 3. 《进口反补贴落地,利好国产替代》 2025-12-23 筹码再优化，大众品阶段性优于白酒 核心观点 � 风险提示: 消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧，食品安全问题等。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! t a production and the result of the first and the states of the states of the see of 行业投资策略报告 / 2026.01.29 公募基金食饮板块减配,超配比例持平。4Q2025 季末基金食品饮料板 * 块重仓持股比例为 6%，环比下降 0.3pct。全行业中，食饮板 ...

开源证券研报指出，西麦食品增长根基稳步夯实，利润弹性释放可期，维持"增持"评级。1月公司进入 春节旺季备货阶段，市场需求相对较好，为收入增长提供支撑，同时成本红利继续释放，有望驱动公司 盈利弹性充分兑现。2025年纯燕麦推出有机燕麦等高附加值产品表现较好，增长有所提速；复合燕麦在 老品升级和新品放量下，增速较快并贡献主要增量，预计2026年燕麦主业将继续稳扎稳打，保障收入基 本盘。同时，2025年公司积极推进大健康第二增长曲线发展，Q4推出药食同源粉，在部分区域实现较 好动销和回转表现，预计2026年全国市场铺开后，有望贡献显著增量，成为重要增长极。2025年公司线 上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在控费提效策略推动下，渠道盈利能力在 逐季改善。 ...

食品饮料/休闲食品 西麦食品（002956.SZ） 增长根基稳步夯实，利润弹性释放可期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 28.60 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 29.78/15.22 | | 总市值(亿元) | 63.85 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 63.84 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 104.66 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 西麦食品 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 收入韧性凸显，业绩表现好于预 期—公司信息更新报告》-2025.10.31 《收入增长势能较好，产品、渠道持 续开拓 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.8.28 线上渠道高增延续，线下新兴渠道拓展较好 2025 年公司线上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在 控费提效策略推动下，渠道盈利能力在逐季 ...

原材料成本延续下降，叠加费用率优化，看好2026 年利润弹性 2025 年受益于澳麦原材料成本下行，公司前三季度毛利率同比提升1.03pct。2026年澳洲燕麦供需格局 继续改善，预计原料价格将延续下行趋势，驱动公司毛利率稳步上行，叠加公司费用管控能力持续优 化，盈利弹性有望加速兑现。 2025 年纯燕麦推出有机燕麦等高附加值产品表现较好，增长有所提速；复合燕麦在老品升级和新品放 量下，增速较快并贡献主要增量，预计2026 年燕麦主业将继续稳扎稳打，保障收入基本盘。同时， 2025 年公司积极推进大健康第二增长曲线发展，Q4 推出药食同源粉，在部分区域实现较好动销和回转 表现，预计2026 年全国市场铺开后，有望贡献显著增量，成为重要增长极。 线上渠道高增延续，线下新兴渠道拓展较好 2025 年公司线上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在控费提效策略推动下， 渠道盈利能力在逐季改善；天猫、京东等传统电商平台亦维持稳健增速，预计2026 年线上渠道仍将延 续高增长态势。线下渠道保持稳步增长，传统商超因调改增速放缓，新兴渠道成为线下主要增长引擎， 零食量贩持续扩充品类和门店覆盖数量，O2O 增加 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently at a phase of bottoming out, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival inventory buildup as a catalyst for growth [1][5]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a slow recovery in demand, with a focus on stabilizing expectations before discussing recovery, particularly for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [6][19]. - The snack sub-sector has shown strong performance, with significant growth in companies like Mingming Hen Mang, which plans to go public in Hong Kong [20][22]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No ratings for liquor, beverages, and food sectors [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Buy - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Increase Holding - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy [3]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.57%, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries [5][14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors were snacks, pre-processed foods, and cooked foods, with increases of 6.44%, 5.02%, and 4.25% respectively [5][14]. - The top five stocks in the sector included: - Haoxiangni (+19.59%) - Weizhi Xiang (+17.23%) - Wancheng Group (+14.32%) - Quanyuan (+13.57%) - CITIC Nia (+9.69%) [5][14]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor index fell by 2.80%, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival for potential recovery [6][19]. - Current prices for Moutai products are: - Feitian Moutai (loose bottle): 1560 RMB, up 10 RMB from last week - Pu'er Moutai: 810 RMB, unchanged from last week [6][19]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - Several companies are planning IPOs in Hong Kong, with Mingming Hen Mang aiming to raise between 32.37 billion to 33.36 billion HKD [20][22]. - The company reported a GMV of 661 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a 74.5% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - Dongpeng Beverage plans to issue 40.89 million H shares, with an expected listing date of February 3, 2026 [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].

盘古智库高级研究员江瀚表示，这暴露出西麦食品在供应链协同管理与渠道质量控制体系上的短板，连续多次发生的霉菌超标事件，一定程度上会削弱消费 者对品牌基础产品的信任，而燕麦片作为该公司核心品类，因产品问题导致的信任危机将可能制约公司新业务投入能力。 有着国内"燕麦第一股"之称的西麦食品再次因相关产品不合格问题引发市场关注。近日，国家市场监督管理总局发布的最新一期食品安全监督抽检结果显 示，西麦旗下、由其全资子公司河北西麦食品有限公司生产的"中老年营养燕麦片"，被抽检出菌落总数不符合食品安全国家标准规定。 对此，西麦食品相关工作人员对北京商报记者表示，涉事产品的菌落总数超标问题系经销商在流通环节管控不当，公司对涉事批次产品已完成了召回和销 毁，并已对经销商的流通环节加强了监管。值得注意的是，这并非西麦食品首次出现旗下产品不合格的情况。业界认为，这在一定程度上暴露出西麦食品在 供应链协同管理与渠道质量控制体系上存在短板。此外，燕麦片作为西麦食品核心品类，多次出现产品抽检不合格问题，可能会引发消费者信任危机，甚至 影响到公司新业务的发展。 回应：系经销商流通环节管理不当导致 根据国家市场监督管理总局披露的信息，《食品安 ...