第 1页 共 5页 第 2页 共 5页 一、研究背景评估 | 项目 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 国信证券经济研究所 | | | 具备中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格，专注于行业与公司研究。 | | 1. 权威性说明 | 专业资质：分析师张向伟、杨苑均具备证券投资咨询执业资格，研究体系规范。 | | 2. | 数据来源：引用国家统计局、Euromonitor、公司公告、海关总署、USDA 等权威数据源。 | | 3. | 连续跟踪：长期发布食品饮料行业周报、专题报告，对银发经济与健康食品有深度积累。 | | 4. | 机构背书：国盛证券（原文中提及，但报告为国信证券）为持牌金融机构，报告服务于机构投资者。 | | 样本数量 | 宏观数据分析，非抽样统计。覆盖银发人口、燕麦行业、公司经营等多维度数据。 | | 研究时间范围 2025 | 年及未来预测，数据更新至 2025 年末，并展望至 2027 年，具备强时效性。 | | 报告性质 | 行业专题研究报告，聚焦银发经济中的食品饮料机会，并以西麦食品为例深度分析。 | 二、范围与边界确认 | 研究维度 | 具体范围 | | -- ...

2025年我国60岁及以上人口已达3.2亿，占总人口比重上升至23%，较2024年上升了1个百分点，标志着 我国已正式迈入中度老龄化社会。中国老龄化科学研究中心预计2035年前后，我国银发族人口数量将突 破4亿，到2050年左右突破5亿。当前社会银发族经济基础较好、收入稳定性较强、健康意识显著提升， 正经历消费观念重塑，倾向于"悦己型"和"健康投资型"消费。 国信证券主要观点如下： 银发一族：有钱、有闲、有健康焦虑的优质消费者 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2025年我国60岁及以上人口达3.2亿，迈入中度老龄化社 会。银发族有钱有闲且有健康焦虑，驱动健康食品需求爆发。西麦食品(002956.SZ)作为燕麦龙头， 2024年市占率达26.0%，正围绕"燕麦谷物、大健康"双业务深化布局，受益于银发经济与健康消费趋 势。 健康食品成为蓝海市场 西麦食品从燕麦谷物赛道起步，历经三十余年发展历程，已完成从区域性品牌向全国行业龙头的蜕变。 2024年公司正式发布了新战略规划，明确继续围绕"健康产业"这一核心发展主线，积极布局"燕麦谷 物、大健康"两大业务。燕麦是一种健康食品的天然优质原料，其主要成分β-葡聚糖 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

近期事件 2026年1月，国家市场监督管理总局抽检发现西麦食品全资子公司生产的"中老年营养燕麦片"菌落总数 不符合国家标准。公司回应称问题源于经销商流通环节管控不当，已对涉事批次产品完成召回和销毁， 并加强渠道监管。此次事件可能对品牌信任度产生影响，需关注后续整改效果。 经济观察网 西麦食品（002956.SZ）近期有多项动态值得关注，包括产品质量事件、业务扩张计划、成 本盈利趋势及行业市场动态。 股票近期走势 西麦食品（股票代码：002956.SZ）近期有以下值得关注的事件，基于公开信息整理： 业务进展情况 公司正积极推进大健康战略，2025年第四季度推出的"药食同源"系列产品在部分区域试销反馈积极，预 计2026年在全国市场铺开后有望成为新增长点。同时，线上渠道（如抖音）保持高增长，线下零食量 贩、山姆会员店等新兴渠道拓展顺利，2026年渠道表现值得关注。 经营状况 受益于澳洲燕麦原料成本下行，公司2025年毛利率已提升。2026年原料供需格局预计继续改善，成本红 利可能进一步释放，叠加费用优化，利润弹性有望兑现。 行业状况 燕麦行业整体增速放缓，但西麦食品作为龙头持续聚焦银发经济和健康消费，通过产品结构 ...

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Company Overview - Ximai Foods has established itself as a leading player in the oatmeal industry, having listed on the A-share market in 2019 and achieving a market share of 31% in China [2][5][3] - The company has expanded its operations from Guangxi to the Southwest and established production bases in Hezhou and Hebei, creating a North-South market structure [3][4] Financial Performance - From 2014 to 2024, Ximai's revenue is projected to grow from 540 million RMB to 1.89 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [2][3] - Profit peaked at 160 million RMB in 2019 but has declined due to rising import prices of oats; however, profitability is expected to improve starting in 2025 as oat prices decrease [2][3][13] - Revenue targets for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 2.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.9 billion RMB respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][13] Market Dynamics - The Chinese breakfast oatmeal market is expected to reach 10.4 billion RMB by 2025, with a CAGR of 8% [2][5] - Oatmeal consumption in China is projected to grow, with a consumption volume of 234,000 tons by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5% [5] - The retail market for oatmeal in China is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding a market share of 56% [5] Product and Marketing Strategy - Ximai Foods offers a diverse product line, with compound oatmeal becoming the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 45% of total revenue by the end of 2024 [6][7] - The company has a clear marketing structure, with dedicated teams for brand management, online sales, offline channels, and new business development [7] - Online sales have seen significant growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin, where sales are expected to rise from 170 million RMB in 2022 to 620 million RMB by 2025 [7] Health and Wellness Initiatives - Ximai has actively entered the health and wellness sector, launching new products like "Shiyang Chongpao Powder," which are expected to create new growth avenues [2][8] - The establishment of Xiyi Company, a joint venture with Yiyangsheng Group, aims to develop food-medicine integrated products, leveraging both companies' strengths [11][12] Competitive Advantages - Ximai's market share increase in 2021 can be attributed to its localized strategies, product iterations, and rapid adaptation to emerging channels [9][10] - The company has effectively utilized a unique channel development model involving laid-off women to enhance distribution and brand loyalty [10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth driven by demographic trends, the expansion of e-commerce, and breakthroughs in the health and wellness sector [13] - Key factors influencing profitability include declining oat prices, economies of scale, and an employee stock incentive plan [13][14] - The overall outlook is positive, with a buy rating recommended based on the company's robust growth potential and stable development trajectory [14]

Core Viewpoint - The leisure food sector experienced a 2.4% increase on February 4, with Wancheng Group leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive movement [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Wancheng Group (300972) closed at 209.30, with a rise of 7.33% and a trading volume of 36,300 lots, amounting to 739 million yuan [1]. - Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) closed at 18.15, up 2.83% with a trading volume of 58,500 lots, totaling 10.5 million yuan [1]. - Yanjin Puhui (002847) closed at 69.95, increasing by 2.70% with a trading volume of 49,400 lots, amounting to 344 million yuan [1]. - Other notable stocks include Ximai Food (002956) at 28.12 (+2.18%), Ligao Food (300973) at 44.20 (+2.10%), and Youyou Food (603697) at 13.78 (+2.07%) [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 46.24 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 29.96 million yuan [2]. - Notable individual stock capital flows include Youyou Food with a net outflow of 36.51 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 3.84 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Salted Food (002847) experienced a net inflow of 10.05 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a slight outflow [3].

证券日报网讯 2月3日，西麦食品在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日，公司的股东 户数为10561户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The leisure food sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on February 3, with "Good Idea" leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - "Maiqu'er" (002719) closed at 9.45, up 3.39% with a trading volume of 163,400 shares and a transaction value of 154 million [1] - "Lihigh Food" (300973) closed at 43.29, up 2.73% with a trading volume of 62,400 shares and a transaction value of 262 million [1] - "Good Idea" (002582) closed at 13.03, down 3.05% with a trading volume of 477,400 shares and a transaction value of 623 million [2] - "Ximai Food" (002956) closed at 27.52, down 2.31% with a trading volume of 33,800 shares and a transaction value of 92 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 84.37 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 79.99 million [2] - "Youyou Food" (603697) had a main fund net inflow of 21.20 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.12 million [3] - "Wancheng Group" (300972) experienced a main fund net inflow of 13.24 million, with a retail net inflow of 27.37 million [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of 4Q2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter[9] - The food and beverage sector ranks 7th among all industries in terms of heavy stockholding ratio, falling one position[9] - The total net asset size of the sample funds is approximately 3.98 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings valued at 240 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - Both active and passive funds reduced their allocations to the food and beverage sector, with active equity funds decreasing by 0.2 pct to 3.9% and passive index funds decreasing by 0.6 pct to 8.4%[15] - The allocation to the liquor sector decreased by 0.4 pct to 5.1%, while the allocation to consumer goods increased by 0.1 pct to 0.9%[19] Group 3: Stock Performance - Among the top 20 heavy stockholdings, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, with its holding ratio decreasing by 0.08 pct to 2.97%[23] - The leading liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw their holding ratios decline, while stocks in the consumer goods sector, such as Yurun Agriculture and Ximai Foods, experienced significant increases in holdings[27] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain and snack sectors, particularly during the Spring Festival period, which is expected to support industry improvement[29] - Key stocks to watch include those in the restaurant chain (e.g., Anjijia Foods, Angel Yeast) and snack sector (e.g., Wancheng Group, Wei Long) due to their potential for growth[29] Group 5: Risks - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in consumer spending, increased competition in the food and beverage industry, and potential food safety issues that could impact company operations and brand reputation[30]