被称为"眼科茅"的爱尔眼科，在上市近16年后交出首份扣非利润负增长的成绩单。近日爱尔眼科发布的 2024年度报告显示，2024年爱尔眼科实现营业收入同比增长3.02%，远低于2023年的26.4%；扣非净利 润为30.99亿元，同比下降11.82%——这是爱尔眼科自2009年上市以来，首次出现扣非净利负增长的情 况。尽管公司营收仍保持微增，但扣非净利润首次出现负增长，叠加商誉高企、医疗纠纷频发等风险， 爱尔眼科长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。值得一提的是，屈光业务作为爱尔眼科最核心的营收支柱，长期 占据着其业务板块的主导地位，然而这一"利润奶牛"近年来纠纷不断。 | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | 本年比上年 | 2022 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 增减 | | | 营业收入(元) | | 20.982.894.148.50 | 20.367.156.738.96 | 3.02% | 16.109.946.687.31 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利 | | 3.556.055.831.70 | 3.358.871.535.71 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Aier Eye with a Neutral (N) rating and a price target (PT) of Rmb13.00 for December 2025 [1][4][32]. Core Insights - Aier Eye is positioned as a leader in the expanding ophthalmology market, driven by an aging population and increasing quality of life demands. The company benefits from resilient demand for cataract and eye disease therapies, ensuring steady industry growth despite a sluggish consumer economy in China [1][8][36]. - The report estimates an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2027, but notes that the stock is reasonably priced at a 28x FY25E price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, suggesting a wait for a pullback or signs of recovery in discretionary procedures [1][8][32]. Market Overview - The ophthalmic services market in China is projected to grow from Rmb73 billion in 2015 to Rmb286 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of approximately 11% [5][37]. - The demand for age-related conditions, particularly cataracts affecting around 150 million patients, and a large base of over 700 million myopic patients, is expected to drive growth in refractive surgery and medical optometry services [5][38]. Company Positioning - Aier Eye operates over 900 hospitals and clinics, holding approximately 8% of the total market share, and is expected to achieve a gross margin of 50% by 2024, which is 5-10% higher than its peers [5][17]. - The company’s physician partnership model and equity incentive programs are crucial for talent retention and clinical innovation, which are essential for maintaining service quality [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from Rmb20.37 billion in FY23 to Rmb27.18 billion in FY26, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 32% [7][8]. - The report forecasts a 25% revenue growth for high-margin refractive surgery from FY25 to FY27, although growth in this segment is expected to be flat in FY24 [5][8]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb13.00 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, assuming a market risk premium of 6.2% and a risk-free rate of 3.8% [9][32]. - Aier Eye's valuation is considered reasonable compared to its peers, with a forward-looking PE ratio of 28x, which is in line with the average PE of comparable private specialty hospitals [23][28].

Financial Performance - In 2024, Aier Eye Hospital's operating revenue reached 20.983 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.87% [1] - The growth rates for both revenue and net profit in 2024 marked the lowest in five years, with previous years showing growth rates of 19.24%, 25.93%, 7.39%, and 26.43% for revenue, and 25.01%, 34.78%, 8.65%, and 33.07% for net profit from 2020 to 2023 [1] Executive Compensation - In 2024, the total remuneration paid to the company's directors, supervisors, and senior management was 12.5151 million yuan [4] - The highest-paid executive was Deputy General Manager Tang Shibo, with a salary of 1.8919 million yuan [4] - Both Chairman Chen Bang and General Manager Li Li received a salary of 1.149 million yuan each [4] Executive Profiles - Tang Shibo, born in April 1961, holds a PhD from the University of Munich and has held various significant positions in the field of ophthalmology [6] - He is currently the Deputy General Manager and Chief Medical Officer of Aier Eye Hospital [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual and Q1 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth slowing in 2024 but a strong recovery in Q1 2025, driven by improved operational quality and new product launches [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2024 Annual Results - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.87% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 3.099 billion yuan, down 11.82% year-on-year, indicating pressure on core profitability [2]. - Revenue breakdown: Refractive surgery revenue was 7.603 billion yuan (YoY +2.31%), optical business revenue was 5.279 billion yuan (YoY +6.42%), cataract surgery revenue was 3.489 billion yuan (YoY +4.87%), and posterior segment surgery revenue was 1.499 billion yuan (YoY +8.22%) [2]. Group 2: Q1 2025 Results - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.050 billion yuan, up 16.71% year-on-year [1][3]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.060 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.78% year-on-year increase, primarily due to a reduction in government subsidies [3]. - Revenue drivers included increased demand for refractive surgeries and the launch of new products, with a focus on stabilizing prices and enhancing customer value [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Global Expansion - The company launched its AI vertical model AierGPT in September 2024, contributing to the development of an "AI Digital Ophthalmologist" [4]. - The digital human "Eyecho" was officially released in October 2024, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [4]. - By the end of 2024, the company expanded its global network to 163 ophthalmology centers, achieving revenue of 2.625 billion yuan from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets, a year-on-year increase of 13.53% [4]. Group 4: Future Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 23.623 billion yuan, 26.836 billion yuan, and 30.567 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.58%, 13.60%, and 13.91% respectively [4]. - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 4.145 billion yuan, 4.846 billion yuan, and 5.659 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.55%, 16.92%, and 16.78% respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - Aier Eye Hospital's 2024 annual report reveals significant challenges in its core business areas, resulting in the lowest revenue growth since its listing and the first decline in net profit since its inception [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Aier Eye Hospital achieved revenue of 20.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, significantly lower than the 26.4% growth in 2023 [1] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.82% [1] - The refractive surgery segment, which contributes over 30% of total revenue, saw revenue growth slow to 2.31%, with a gross margin of 55.11%, down 2.28 percentage points from 2023 [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The refractive surgery segment, which includes procedures like SMILE and ICL implantation, is under pressure due to declining consumer demand and increased competition, with prices for procedures dropping significantly in various regions [2] - The vision care segment, the second-largest revenue contributor, experienced a revenue growth decline to 6.42%, with a gross margin of 54.49%, down 2.56 percentage points from 2023 [2][3] - The cataract surgery segment faced challenges due to new procurement policies and payment reforms, leading to a 3.25 percentage point decline in gross margin [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Aier Eye Hospital remains optimistic about future growth, citing increasing demand for eye health services and the potential for market expansion as economic conditions improve [4] - The company reported a strong start to 2025, with first-quarter revenue and net profit after non-recurring items increasing by 15.97% and 25.78%, respectively [4]

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 今天我们谈谈牧原股份 、 恒瑞医药 、 爱尔眼科 。 在投资的世界里 ， 寻找那些拥有核心竞争 力 、 深筑护城河的企业 ， 就如同在茫茫大海中寻找珍贵的珍珠 。 它们不仅能在市场的风浪中 稳稳当当 ， 更能随着时间推移 ， 散发出愈发夺目的光彩 。 2025年一季报的发布 ， 让牧原股份 、 恒瑞医药和爱尔眼科再次成为大家关注的焦点 。 它们各 自代表了生猪养殖 、 创新药和眼科医疗领域的顶尖水平 ， 不仅展现了强劲的业绩 ， 更透露出 未来增长的无限可能 。 接下来的分析 ， 将带你深入探寻这些企业背后的核心竞争力与护城河 ， 以及它们在投资价值上的对比和未来的市场潜力 。 一 、 牧原股份 ： 周期上行+成本优势 ， 生猪养殖龙头护城河稳固 1.2025年一季报业绩 ： 营业总收入360.61亿元 ， 同比增37.26% ； 净利润46.19亿元 ， 同 比增287.87% ； 归母净利润44.91亿元 ， 上年同期亏损23.79亿元 。 2.核心竞争力与护城河 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 20.983 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.87% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.97%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, which is a 16.71% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Business Performance - The company focused on core business development, achieving an outpatient volume of 16.9407 million visits in 2024, a 12.14% increase, and a surgical volume of 1.2947 million cases, up 9.38% [2] - Revenue from various services in 2024 included: 7.603 billion yuan from refractive services (up 2.31%), 3.489 billion yuan from cataract services (up 4.87%), 1.898 billion yuan from anterior segment services (up 5.95%), 1.499 billion yuan from posterior segment services (up 8.22%), and 5.279 billion yuan from vision services (up 6.42%) [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue in various domestic regions: 5.292 billion yuan in Central China (down 4.27%), 1.754 billion yuan in Northeast China (down 2.24%), 2.725 billion yuan in Southwest China (up 5.39%), 3.322 billion yuan in East China (up 6.69%), 1.663 billion yuan in North China (up 6.28%), 2.699 billion yuan in South China (up 3.92%), and 0.902 billion yuan in Northwest China (up 3.59%) [3] - The overseas revenue reached 2.625 billion yuan, marking a 13.5% year-on-year increase, with Europe and Southeast Asia growing by 18.05% and 7.51%, respectively [3] Market Potential - The demand for ophthalmic medical services in China is expected to grow significantly due to an aging population, increasing prevalence of age-related eye diseases, and rising awareness of eye health among the public [3] - The current penetration rate of various sub-specialties in ophthalmology is low, indicating a substantial unmet medical need, which is likely to improve with ongoing public education efforts [3] Investment Outlook - As the largest ophthalmic chain medical institution globally, the company is expected to enhance its core competitiveness through resource integration [4] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 0.46 yuan and 0.53 yuan, respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 28 times and 24 times, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Aier Eye Hospital (300015), reported a total revenue of 20.983 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.87% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.97%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, which is a 16.71% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business and digital capabilities, which has contributed to the recovery of its performance growth in Q1 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded an outpatient volume of 16.9407 million visits, a 12.14% increase, and a surgical volume of 1.2947 million cases, up 9.38% [5]. - Revenue from various services in 2024 included: refractive services at 7.603 billion yuan (up 2.31%), cataract services at 3.489 billion yuan (up 4.87%), anterior segment services at 1.898 billion yuan (up 5.95%), posterior segment services at 1.499 billion yuan (up 8.22%), and vision care services at 5.279 billion yuan (up 6.42%) [5]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue growth in several domestic regions, with notable increases in Southwest (5.39%), East China (6.69%), North China (6.28%), South China (3.92%), and Northwest (3.59%) regions, while Central China and Northeast regions saw declines of -4.27% and -2.24% respectively [5]. - Internationally, the company generated 2.625 billion yuan in revenue, a 13.5% increase, with Europe and Southeast Asia growing by 18.05% and 7.51% respectively [5]. Market Potential - The report highlights significant growth potential in China's ophthalmic medical services due to an aging population, increasing prevalence of age-related eye diseases, and rising awareness of eye health among the public [5]. - The current low penetration rates in various ophthalmic specialties indicate a substantial unmet demand for treatment, suggesting that the market for eye health services is likely to expand as awareness and education improve [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.46 yuan and 0.53 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28 times and 24 times [6].

医药 公 司 报 告 爱尔眼科(300015.SZ) 相关研究报告 【平安证券】爱尔眼科（300015.SZ）*季报点评*具 备经营韧性，静待消费复苏*推荐20241101 证券分析师 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514100001 BOT335 事项： 具备经营韧性，25Q1业绩快速增长 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:12.72元 行情走势图 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容 2025年04月25日 公司发布2024年年报以及2025年一季报，2024年收入实现209.83亿元，同比 增长3.02%，归母净利润实现35.56亿元，同比增长5.87%，扣非归母净利润 实现30.99亿元，同比-11.82%。2025Q1公司收入实现60.26亿元，同比增长 15.97%，归母净利润实现10.50亿元，同比增长16.71%，扣非归母净利润实 现10.60亿元，同比增长25.78%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 1.6 元（含税）。 平安观点： 研 究 报 告 YEYIN757@pingan.com.cn 倪亦道 投资咨询资格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated operational resilience with a rapid growth in performance in Q1 2025, driven by consumer-oriented projects [6] - The 2024 revenue reached 20.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.87% year-on-year [3][6] - The report anticipates continued recovery in performance, supported by stable pricing in refractive surgery and an increase in the proportion of high-end procedures [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 20.983 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 15.3% in 2025, reaching 24.199 billion yuan [6][9] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.139 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.4% in 2025 [6][9] - The gross margin for the medical services segment is expected to be 48.1% in 2024, slightly declining from previous years [6][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3][6] Performance Metrics - The report outlines key performance metrics, including an expected EPS of 0.38 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.44 yuan in 2025 [6][9] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is 17.2% for 2024, with a gradual increase to 18.5% by 2027 [6][9] - The company's asset-liability ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.4% in 2024 to 22.5% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]