Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [15]. Core Views - Anta's brand operations are stable, with FILA brand revenue exceeding expectations. The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2025, particularly in the children's segment [4][10]. - The overall retail performance for Anta and FILA brands showed high single-digit growth year-on-year in Q4 2024, with other brands experiencing a 50-55% increase [4][9]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth in professional sports, fashion sports, and outdoor sports segments, benefiting from industry trends [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anta Sports is primarily engaged in the textile and apparel industry, with a total market capitalization of HKD 212.448 billion and a share price of HKD 75.25 [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (YoY growth of 16.2%) - 2024E: 71,329 million (YoY growth of 14.4%) - 2025E: 81,204 million (YoY growth of 13.8%) - 2026E: 91,805 million (YoY growth of 13.1%) [6][13]. - Net profit projections are: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (YoY growth of 34.9%) - 2024E: 11,875 million (YoY growth of 16.0%) - 2025E: 13,801 million (YoY growth of 16.2%) - 2026E: 15,389 million (YoY growth of 11.5%) [6][13]. Brand Performance - Anta brand retail sales in Q4 2024 showed high single-digit growth, with a healthy inventory turnover of approximately five months [9]. - FILA brand retail sales also demonstrated high single-digit growth, with strong performance in FILA Kids and FILA's trendy products [9]. - Other brands, excluding those added after January 1, 2023, saw a revenue increase of 50-55%, with Descente and KOLON brands maintaining high growth rates [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Anta's revenue will achieve double-digit growth in 2025, driven by improved store efficiency and strong e-commerce performance [10]. - FILA is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in trendy and children's segments, with a projected mid to high single-digit revenue growth in 2025 [10]. - Other brands, especially Descente and KOLON, are expected to contribute significantly to overall profitability [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1]. Core Views - Anta's 4Q24 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant improvement in Fila's sales, alleviating concerns about its growth slowdown. This is expected to stimulate a short-term rebound in stock price [1]. - The company's 2024 performance is largely determined, aligning with previous forecasts, and despite challenges in 2025, Anta is expected to achieve higher sales growth than peers through continuous store upgrades and product adjustments [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for acquisitions in 2025, which could further enhance growth amid uncertain market demand [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Anta's 4Q24 total revenue increased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with Fila's revenue also showing a significant recovery compared to 3Q24 [10]. - The forecast for 2024 anticipates a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, with Anta brand revenue expected to grow nearly 10% and Fila brand revenue projected to increase by 6% [10]. - The report predicts a core net profit of RMB 11.886 billion for 2024, reflecting a 16.1% year-on-year increase [12][15]. - The target price for Anta is set at HKD 93.0, indicating a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 75.3 [4][5]. Brand Performance Insights - Fila's 4Q24 revenue growth was significantly better than the previous quarter, with a year-on-year increase in the high single digits [10]. - Descente and Kolon are expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, contributing to overall group profitability [2]. - The report notes that Anta's online discount levels improved slightly, while offline discounts remained stable, indicating effective inventory management [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Anta is recognized as one of the best-performing domestic brands in the Chinese sportswear market, attributed to management's proactive store renovations and expansion into emerging e-commerce channels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable inventory turnover ratio and discount levels to support profitability [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 69.627 billion, with a gross profit margin expected to remain stable at around 62.6% [12][21]. - The report outlines a gradual increase in net profit and earnings per share over the next few years, with a projected core net profit of RMB 14.240 billion in 2025 [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth across multiple brands in 2025, with a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to uncertainties in the consumption environment [4]. - Retail sales for all brands improved sequentially in Q4 2024, with FILA, Descente, and KOLON exceeding expectations [4][3]. - The company is focusing on differentiated store formats and expanding overseas, which is anticipated to drive growth [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - In Q4 2024, retail sales for Anta brand, FILA, and other brands saw year-on-year growth in high single digits to 50-55% [1][2]. - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 months, with retail discounts at approximately 72% [1]. - FILA brand's retail sales performance exceeded expectations, with discounts stable at 74-75% and a similar inventory turnover ratio [2]. Multi-Brand Strategy - The company is leveraging a multi-brand strategy, with Anta's offline stores evolving towards more refined service offerings for different consumer segments [3]. - The launch of popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes and Storm甲 jackets, has contributed to strong sales [3]. - Descente and KOLON brands achieved significant sales growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 45-50% and 60-65% in Q4 2024 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates reduced by 2%/4%/4% respectively [4]. - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.78, 4.85, and 5.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 69.39 billion RMB in 2024 to 76.38 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.1% [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][10] Core Views - In Q4 2024, Anta's main brand recorded high single-digit growth, while FILA achieved high single-digit growth, and other brands saw a growth of 50-55%. For the entire year of 2024, Anta's main brand also recorded high single-digit growth, FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 40-45% [2][4][5] - The new retail model and multi-brand matrix are expected to drive the brand to maintain industry-leading growth rates. Despite a high base in Q4, the group's various brands still maintained sequential growth, outperforming peers, with stable discount rates and healthy inventory levels [4][8][10] Summary by Sections Q4 and Full Year Performance - Q4 2024 saw a sequential increase in revenue growth despite a high base, with FILA performing better than expected and outdoor brands maintaining rapid growth. Inventory levels across brands are healthy, and discount rates remain stable [3][5] - Anta's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with nearly 10% growth for the full year. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, indicating a healthy level, and online retail discounts narrowed [5][9] - FILA's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with mid-single-digit growth for the full year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and stable discount levels [5][6] Brand Performance - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 50-55% in Q4, with annual growth of 40-45%, particularly notable for the high growth rates of Descente (45-50%) and Kolon (60-65%) [6][10] - The "Super Anta" new retail format, launched in mid-2024, is expected to further drive growth in 2025, with plans to open 160 stores, significantly increasing store efficiency [7][8] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecast for Anta Sports estimates net profits of 135 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. Adjusted net profits, excluding one-time gains from Amer Sports' listing, are expected to be approximately 120 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.8%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [4][10][11] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 103-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-22x for 2025 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [7] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated excellent revenue growth in Q4 2024, with Anta brand revenue increasing by high single digits year-on-year, Fila brand revenue also growing by high single digits, and other brands achieving a revenue growth of 50% to 55% [1] - The overall revenue growth for Anta Sports in 2024 is projected at 13%, with an expected profit growth of 29.5% [4] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - E-commerce business showed strong growth, with overall revenue growth driven by product and brand enhancements, including the launch of the high-cost performance running shoe PG7 [2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to be around 5, indicating a healthy level, with discounts remaining stable [2] - Anta aims to enhance its brand strength and expand into Southeast Asia and Europe in the long term [2] Fila Brand - Fila's Q4 revenue growth was better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of high single digits, showing significant improvement from Q3 [3] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is also projected to be around 5, indicating a healthy inventory level with minimal discount pressure [3] - Fila is positioned for healthy operations and potential high-quality growth as the consumer environment improves [3] Other Brands - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon Sport, achieved a revenue growth of 50% to 55% in Q4 2024, indicating strong growth potential [4] - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 13% and a profit growth of 29.5% for the company in 2024, factoring in contributions from Amer and non-cash gains [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 13.258 billion, 13.635 billion, and 15.609 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta Sports experienced a slight miss in revenue expectations due to unfavorable conditions in Q3, but there are expectations for sales improvement in Q4 [1][3] - The company is recognized as a leading multi-brand sportswear player in China, with ongoing improvements in store operations, product positioning, and brand strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2022 was 53.651 billion RMB, with projections of 62.356 billion RMB for 2023, 68.637 billion RMB for 2024, 75.773 billion RMB for 2025, and 83.703 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 8.76%, 16.23%, 10.07%, 10.40%, and 10.47% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.590 billion RMB in 2022, expected to rise to 10.236 billion RMB in 2023, 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, 13.482 billion RMB in 2025, and 15.189 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 31.62%, 0.07%, and 12.67% respectively [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand retail revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments showing similar growth [3] - FILA brand revenue declined in the low single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with expectations for better performance in bulk orders compared to children's and trendy brands [3] - Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with Descente and KOLON growing by 35-40% and 65-70% respectively [3] Operational Insights - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than five months, with discounts remaining stable [3] - The company has adapted to the challenging consumer environment by innovating in channels and products, such as launching new store formats and cost-effective running shoes [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 13.472 billion RMB, 13.482 billion RMB, and 15.189 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 14, and 13 [3][12] - Key financial ratios for 2024E include an EPS of 4.76 RMB, ROE of 20.72%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.71% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrates resilience during the downturn, with expectations for a bottoming out in sales during the National Day holiday period, which exceeded expectations [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates across its various brands, with a notable performance from the main brand and a healthy inventory level [2][3] - The report anticipates that e-commerce sales will outperform offline sales, continuing a trend of over 20% growth [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (growth rate: 16%) - 2024E: 70,710 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2025E: 79,308 million (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 88,319 million (growth rate: 11%) [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (growth rate: 35%) - 2024E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 32%) - 2025E: 14,166 million (growth rate: 5%) - 2026E: 15,974 million (growth rate: 13%) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.68 - 2023A: 3.62 - 2024E: 4.78 - 2025E: 5.01 - 2026E: 5.65 [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: - 2023A: 6.94 - 2024E: 3.75 - 2025E: 4.67 - 2026E: 5.91 [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 23% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 18% [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on multi-brand operations to cover segmented users and enhance domestic product capabilities, capitalizing on emerging sports trends [2] - The company is expected to continue improving its channel reform and customer targeting strategies, particularly through the Super Anta and Champion stores [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining stable discount levels and improving online sales channels [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 118, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with e-commerce continuing to show over 25% growth. The inventory remains healthy with a sell-through ratio below 5 [1]. - FILA experienced a low single-digit decline in Q3 2024, impacted by market saturation and weak demand, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 due to the e-commerce peak season [1]. - Other brands, particularly in outdoor sports, showed strong performance with growth rates of 45-50%, including significant increases for specific brands like Disante and Kolon [1]. - The overall performance in Q4 is anticipated to improve due to favorable consumption policies and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 86,578 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 15,349 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 5.53 in 2026 [2][6]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese sportswear industry, expected to benefit from industry growth and consumer trends [1][3]. - The company has a diversified brand portfolio, with strategies tailored to different consumer segments, enhancing its market reach [1]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholder is Anta International Group Holdings Limited, holding 42.45% of the shares, followed by The DSZ Family Trust and others [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.54 for 2023, decreasing to 15.04 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][9]. - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.20% in 2023 to 2.61% in 2026 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin is expected to improve from 62.6% in 2023 to 63.3% in 2026, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2][9]. - Inventory turnover days are projected to stabilize around 123 days, reflecting efficient inventory management practices [9]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop anticipated in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years [8]. - The cash balance is projected to increase from RMB 15,228 million in 2023 to RMB 24,833 million by 2026, indicating a strengthening liquidity position [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$108.40, representing a 4% increase from the previous target price of HK$104.20 [1]. Core Views - Anta Sports' performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, particularly for the FILA brand, while Descente and KOLON continued to show strong growth [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual guidance, with a projected revenue growth of 12.4% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights challenges for FILA in meeting its annual targets, with anticipated revenue growth between 4.6% and 5.2% for the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70,096 million, with a slight downward adjustment of 0.9% from previous estimates [2]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 63.2% across the forecast period [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 14,122 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% from earlier projections [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 4.99, down 1% from previous estimates [1][2]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$91.40, with an upside potential of 19% to the target price [1]. - The market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately US$33.273 billion [1]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.7 for 2024, which is competitive compared to peers [3].