Group 1 - Major earnings reports are scheduled for next week, including Broadcom and Costco on Thursday, and Adobe and Synopsys on Wednesday [1] - Tuesday is expected to be the busiest day with over 10 companies reporting, including AutoZone and Ferguson Enterprises [1]

分组1 - Harding Loevner's Global Equity Strategy reported a gross return of 2.62% and a net return of 2.52% for Q3 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index and MSCI World Index, which returned 7.74% and 7.36% respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the strategy rose 10.61% net, compared to 18.86% and 17.83% for the indexes, indicating a significant gap in performance [1] - The last six months have been characterized as one of the strongest momentum phases in over 70 years, with high-momentum stocks outperforming low-momentum stocks by 45 percentage points, largely driven by advancements in AI [1] 分组2 - Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) was highlighted as a key stock, with a one-month return of 9.04% and a 52-week gain of 112.24%, closing at $381.03 per share with a market capitalization of $1.799 trillion [2] - In the third quarter of 2025, Broadcom reported record revenue of $16 billion, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [4] - The company raised its outlook for the next year, predicting that AI revenue growth will accelerate from the current rate of 50-60%, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that Broadcom's upcoming earnings report will exceed expectations, driven by Google's TPU availability and a surge in AI spending, with AI revenue expected to see triple-digit growth by fiscal year 2026 [1][3][4] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Broadcom is expected to report revenue of $17.5 billion for Q4 FY2025, a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing market consensus [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected at $1.96, above the market expectation of $1.87, continuing a trend of outperforming expectations over the past four quarters [8] - Guidance for Q1 FY2026 is anticipated to exceed market expectations, with revenue projected at $18 billion, slightly conservative compared to the consensus of $18.4 billion [8] Group 2: AI Revenue Growth - Citigroup forecasts a staggering 147% year-over-year increase in Broadcom's AI revenue for FY2026, reaching approximately $49.3 billion, which will account for 53% of total revenue [10] - Goldman Sachs also supports this trend, estimating AI revenue at $45.4 billion for FY2026, with further growth expected to $77.3 billion by FY2027 [10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Google's expansion of TPU services to external clients, along with demand from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, is a key driver of revenue growth [5][10] - Despite concerns of a potential bubble in AI spending, particularly regarding OpenAI's capital expenditures, semiconductor valuations may continue to rise as long as investment in AI persists [11] Group 4: Price Targets - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $415, based on a 30x P/E ratio for projected EPS in FY2027 [14] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target price from $380 to $435, reflecting an average 14% increase in EPS expectations for FY2026 and FY2027 [14]

Core Insights - Broadcom Inc. is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, particularly in data center networking and virtualization solutions [1] - The company is experiencing significant growth in its ASICs business, supported by strategic collaborations, notably with Google on AI chips [6] Financial Performance - Oppenheimer has maintained an "Outperform" rating for Broadcom, raising the price target from $400 to $435, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [2] - The upcoming earnings report for the quarter ended October 2025 is expected to show a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate predicting earnings of $1.87 per share [4] Market Demand - Broadcom's collaboration with Google has led to increased demand for AI chips, with Google ordering up to one million TPUs and Meta also becoming a significant buyer [3] - The potential demand for "AI racks" is projected to exceed $10 billion in fiscal year 2026, indicating strong market positioning for Broadcom [3][6] Stock Performance - Broadcom's stock is currently priced at $381.03, with a slight increase of 0.11% during the trading day, and has a market capitalization of approximately $1.79 trillion [5]

Core Viewpoint - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is set to revolutionize the external bandwidth of AI data centers, significantly enhancing data transmission speeds and reducing power consumption, marking a shift in computational infrastructure [1][3]. Industry Trends - The silicon photonics industry is on the brink of explosive growth, with over 150 companies forming a diverse ecosystem from upstream SOI/Epi-wafer to downstream cloud computing and AI factories [1][3]. - The competition among foundries is intensifying, with significant investments in silicon photonics capacity and technology, as companies race to establish themselves in the CPO market [3][4]. Foundry Dynamics - Foundries are crucial in transitioning silicon photonics from design to large-scale production, focusing on integrated manufacturing capabilities that combine photonic and electronic components [4][5]. - Samsung is aggressively investing in silicon photonics to challenge TSMC's dominance, positioning CPO technology as a key competitive advantage in the advanced packaging market [5][6]. Strategic Acquisitions - GlobalFoundries' acquisition of Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF) aims to solidify its leadership in silicon photonics, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and supply chain reliability [7]. - Tower Semiconductor is expanding its production capacity significantly, driven by the surging demand for silicon photonics, with a focus on providing comprehensive delivery packages [8]. Design Services and Integration - Companies like Broadcom are transforming silicon photonics into platform businesses, integrating optical engines directly into their networking solutions to facilitate scalable deployment [12][13]. - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI is a strategic move to enhance its optical interconnect capabilities, aiming to provide a comprehensive connectivity platform for AI infrastructure [17][19]. XPU Manufacturers' Role - XPU manufacturers, particularly NVIDIA, are pivotal in driving the commercialization of CPO technology, with NVIDIA's CPO solutions expected to generate significant revenue by 2026 [21][22]. - AMD is also positioning itself in the silicon photonics space through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, focusing on AI interconnect needs [23]. Intel's Foundation - Intel has established itself as a foundational player in the silicon photonics ecosystem, having commercialized the technology early and built a robust supply chain [24][25]. Conclusion - The competition in the "optical chip" space is not just about manufacturing capacity but also about reshaping the interconnect architecture for AI data centers, with CPO technology expected to be fully commercialized by 2027 [26].

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom is positioned to be the leading chip stock in the market next year, driven by the increasing demand for AI infrastructure and cloud computing solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Business Segments - Broadcom is a leader in data center networking, producing essential components like Ethernet switches and network interface cards, which are crucial for managing AI workloads [3]. - The company has expanded its infrastructure software business through acquisitions, with VMware being the largest acquisition, enhancing its cloud computing capabilities [4]. - Following the VMware acquisition, Broadcom has transitioned customers to a subscription model and is promoting its VMware Cloud Foundation platform for managing AI workloads [5]. Group 2: ASICs Opportunity - Broadcom's ASICs business presents significant growth potential, as these custom chips are more efficient for specific tasks compared to general-purpose chips [6]. - The company has collaborated with major clients like Alphabet to design tensor processing units, leading to increased interest in its ASIC solutions [7]. - A notable opportunity includes a $10 billion order from a potential customer, possibly Apple, for next year, alongside a projected $60 billion to $90 billion opportunity from three other major clients by fiscal 2027 [8]. Group 3: Major Contracts and Revenue Potential - Broadcom has secured a deal with OpenAI to supply 10 gigawatts of custom AI chips, valued at approximately $350 billion, to be fulfilled by the end of 2029 [9]. - This deal could translate to nearly $100 billion in annual chip sales, significantly boosting Broadcom's revenue [9]. Group 4: Valuation and Growth Prospects - Broadcom is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of about 30 and a PEG ratio under 0.4, indicating it is undervalued given its growth prospects [10]. - The company is expected to experience strong growth next year, with explosive potential growth anticipated by fiscal 2027, likely leading to a significant stock rally [11].

Broadcom ( AVGO ) will be going into q4’25 in a position of strength following a robust earnings season for the major cloud services providers (CSPs). With growing interest by the major AI developers, Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) and OpenAI (Monte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with expertise in the technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional services worki ...

Core Insights - Broadcom (AVGO) is entering Q4'25 with a strong position following a successful earnings season for major cloud service providers (CSPs) [1] - There is increasing interest from major AI developers such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which may benefit Broadcom [1] Company Performance - Broadcom's performance is positively influenced by the robust earnings reported by major CSPs, indicating a healthy demand environment [1] Industry Trends - The growing interest in AI technologies from leading developers suggests a potential increase in demand for Broadcom's products and services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom Inc. is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended October 2025, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Broadcom's quarterly earnings is $1.87 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +31.7% [3]. - Revenues are anticipated to reach $17.5 billion, which is a 24.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.27% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Broadcom is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.54%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more reliable [9][10]. - Broadcom's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Broadcom exceeded the expected earnings of $1.66 per share by delivering $1.69, resulting in a surprise of +1.81% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Broadcom has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - While Broadcom does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates, investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [17].

Group 1 - Broadcom Inc. is experiencing a transition from sustaining growth to accelerating growth, driven by a structural shift in AI demand and a strengthening software cash engine [2] - AI semiconductors have reached $5.2 billion in quarterly revenue, with custom XPUs making up 65% of the mix, indicating strong partnerships with hyperscalers [3] - The company has provided Q4 AI guidance of $6.2 billion, with management expressing confidence in significantly higher growth next year [4] Group 2 - The VMware acquisition has become a powerful private-cloud utility, generating 77% operating margins and $7 billion in free cash flow [4] - Over 90% of top customers have transitioned to subscription models, allowing Broadcom to enter Phase 2 of monetization by upselling security and disaster recovery services [4] - Despite some gross-margin pressure from a higher XPU mix, operating and EBITDA margins remain strong at approximately 65% and 67%, supported by a $110 billion backlog [6] Group 3 - Broadcom is positioned as a dual-moat business, being an AI connectivity leader backed by a resilient and expanding software franchise [6] - The stock price of Broadcom has appreciated approximately 106.07% since the previous bullish thesis coverage, indicating successful execution of the company's strategy [7] - The current thesis emphasizes accelerating AI visibility and the dual-moat model, aligning with previous analyses [7]