（原标题：美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货跌幅显著收窄，特朗普豪掷120亿美元启动"金库计划"） 1. 2月2日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货跌幅显著收窄。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.09%，标普500指数期货跌0.38%，纳指期货跌0.66%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.91%，英国富时100指数涨0.64%，法国CAC40指数涨0.60%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.47%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌4.75%，报62.11美元/桶。布伦特原油跌4.52%，报66.19美元/桶。 市场消息 美国打响关键矿产战略储备战，特朗普豪掷120亿美元启动"金库计划"。美国总统特朗普计划启动一项战略性关键矿产储备，并提供 120 亿美元的 种子资金，旨在美方努力削减对中国稀土及其他金属依赖的过程中，使制造商免受供应冲击。这项名为"金库项目"的合资计划，拟将 1.67 亿美元 的私人资本与美国进出口银行提供的 100 亿美元贷款相结合，汽车制造商、科技公司及其他制造商采购并储存矿产。描述该计划细节的高级政府 官员透露，这将是美国私营部门首个此类储备库。这代表了美方为积累工业经济(包括汽车、航空航天和能源领域)所需关 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. is launching a strategic critical-minerals stockpile named Project Vault with $12 billion in initial funding to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths and other metals [1][4] - The initiative combines $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to procure and store essential minerals for various industries [1][2] - The stockpile will focus on critical minerals like gallium and cobalt, which are vital for products such as smartphones, batteries, and jet engines [3][4] Industry Impact - U.S. rare-earths stocks experienced a surge in premarket trading following the announcement of the stockpile plan, indicating positive market sentiment [2] - The project aims to strengthen supply chains in the automotive, aerospace, and energy sectors, reducing dependency on China, the leading provider of critical minerals [4][5] - Participation from major companies, including General Motors, Boeing, and Google, highlights the broad industry support for the initiative [5][6] Financial Aspects - The Export-Import Bank's board is set to approve a record-setting 15-year loan, which is more than double the size of the previous largest deal executed by the bank [6] - The involvement of commodities trading houses to manage raw material purchases for the stockpile indicates a structured approach to sourcing critical minerals [5]

据了解，2024年1月，阿拉斯加航空(ALK.US)一架波音737 MAX 9客机起飞后门塞脱落，虽未造成致命 伤亡，但暴露了波音组装环节螺栓缺失、员工培训不足、赶工压力过大等系统性生产问题。 Bedford指出，他最终的目标是将飞机最终安全检查的全部职责交还给波音，并将FAA的工作人员派驻 至波音生产基地的核心环节开展工作。 为盘活有限的监管资源，FAA通常会通过"组织指定授权计划"，将部分监管任务委托给飞机制造商。依 据该计划，企业可履行部分原本由监管机构承担的监督职能。 得益于整改工作取得成效，波音旗下核心盈利机型737 MAX的月产量已从此前的38架上限提升至42 架，实现了产能恢复的关键里程碑。 （原标题：整改之路漫漫！FAA局长：波音(BA.US)需采取更多举措 方能解除监管限制） 智通财经APP获悉，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)局长周一表示，波音(BA.US)仍需采取更多措施，才能 重新获得飞机适航认证权，以及这家航空巨头因一系列生产疏漏而被收回的其他相关权限。 FAA局长Bryan Bedford在新加坡出席亚洲最大航展前夕的行业会议时称："波音仍有更多工作要做，我 们正与该公司合作，助力其达 ...

Core Insights - Boeing's recent quarterly revenue reached nearly $24 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $22.6 billion and marking a 57% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company has returned to profitability, providing optimism for investors [1] Financial Performance - The revenue comparison is against a weak fourth quarter of 2024, where revenue fell 31% year over year, and is significantly lower than the $24 billion generated in the final quarter of 2018 [2] - Boeing's market capitalization stands at $183 billion, with a current stock price of $233.94 [5] Order Backlog - Boeing has a record backlog of $682.2 billion in airplane orders as of the end of last year, with growth in this backlog appearing to accelerate [3] - The company projects a need for 43,600 new passenger jets in the air travel industry between 2025 and 2044, while the current active fleet consists of 30,300 planes, plus 5,250 in storage [4] Market Outlook - Although orders can be canceled, it is uncommon, and the demand for new aircraft is expected to remain strong [4] - The persistent growth of the backlog supports the notion that any temporary dips in Boeing's stock could represent long-term buying opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing mixed actions despite strong earnings from major companies, with a focus on AI's future profitability and growth potential [2][5]. Company Earnings - Meta reported strong earnings, with significant capital expenditure (capex) spending of $115 to $135 billion, which is starting to pay off in terms of advertising revenue [12][13]. - Boeing's earnings showed a 57% increase in sales, with a record backlog of $682 billion, indicating a successful turnaround and positive cash flow [17][18]. AI and Market Outlook - Companies are heavily investing in AI, with Meta and others doubling down on their AI strategies, leading to optimism about future profits [3][12]. - The current stage of AI development is likened to being in the second to third inning, suggesting substantial growth potential ahead [7]. Investment Opportunities - Major companies like IBM and Meta are expected to perform well, with IBM transforming into a significant player in the AI space and offering a reliable dividend of 2.2% [9][11]. - There is potential in "quantum stocks" and other emerging companies that may benefit from the AI boom [8].

Group 1 - The aerospace and defense sectors have gained popularity over the past year, driven by a bullish market outlook [1] - There is an expectation of improving build rates from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Airbus and Boeing [1] - Strong ongoing aftermarket demand is contributing to the positive sentiment in the industry [1]

Core Insights - Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are currently prominent in the eVTOL market, but Boeing's subsidiary Wisk poses a significant long-term threat due to its focus on autonomous eVTOL technology [1] Group 1: Company Strategies - Archer Aviation aims to be an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) selling its aircraft to third-party users, utilizing an asset-light business model that relies on partners' technology and components [2] - Joby Aviation is positioning itself as a vertical transportation services company, planning to use its own eVTOL aircraft in partnership with Delta Air Lines and Uber Technologies to provide air taxi services [3] - Wisk, like Joby, aims to be a transportation services company but is focused on developing an autonomous eVTOL with its Generation 6 aircraft, which could directly compete with Joby's air taxi services [4] Group 2: Certification and Market Dynamics - The certification process for autonomous eVTOLs is complex, leading Wisk to not expect commercial service until at least 2030, which gives Joby and Archer a first-mover advantage [5] - Boeing is proposing a new "Concept of Operations for Automated Flight Rules (AFR)" to facilitate the certification of automated flight, aiming to promote system automation across the industry [6]

Group 1 - Boeing has finalized a new contract with approximately 1,600 white-collar workers from the former Spirit AeroSystems, which Boeing re-acquired in December [1]

Production and Delivery Challenges - The 777X program, launched in 2013, is expected to have first delivery in 2027, with recognized reach-forward losses of $4.9 billion and $3.5 billion in 2025 and 2024, respectively, due to production challenges and delays[43]. - The company plans to increase the 737 production rate to 47 per month by 2026, but faces risks of delays if production health indicators do not support this increase[44]. - Operational challenges in the production system could lead to additional delays and increased costs, negatively impacting revenues and operating margins[45]. - The introduction of new aircraft programs involves significant risks and potential delays, which could adversely affect financial results if commitments to customers are not met[43]. - The commercial aircraft backlog consists of aircraft scheduled for delivery over several years, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic and industry impacts that could affect future deliveries[39]. Financial Performance and Revenue Sources - The company relies heavily on a limited number of commercial airlines for revenue, which poses risks if these customers face financial challenges or make fleet decisions that reduce orders[41]. - The company is experiencing inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, which have reduced productivity and adversely affected financial performance[46]. - Changes in U.S. government defense spending and appropriations could negatively impact revenue from defense-related programs, which are a substantial portion of total revenue[48]. - In 2025, non-U.S. customers accounted for 46% of total revenues and 60% of Commercial Airplanes revenue from customer contracts[57]. - 35% of revenues in 2025 were earned from U.S. government contracts, which are subject to extensive procurement regulations[68]. Defense and Security Business Risks - During 2024, the defense business recorded $5.0 billion in additional losses on five significant fixed-price development programs[73]. - Approximately 60% of revenues from the defense and security businesses were generated from fixed-price contracts in 2025[72]. - Approximately 40% of revenues from the defense and security businesses were generated from cost-type contracting arrangements in 2025[75]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with increased international competition and consolidation in the defense industry, potentially reducing market share and revenues[56]. Regulatory and Trade Environment - Changes in regulatory requirements and trade policies could adversely affect operations and financial results[57][69]. - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains challenged, impacting deliveries and market share in the commercial aircraft sector[60]. - The global trade environment is highly dynamic, with tariffs potentially increasing product costs and affecting demand[59]. Cybersecurity and Legal Risks - The company faces various cybersecurity threats that could negatively impact business operations and data security[79]. - The company is exposed to risks from cyber-related attacks, which could materially affect its business strategy and financial condition[81]. - Legal and regulatory matters could have a material impact on the company's financial position and results of operations[84]. Environmental and Climate Change Risks - Environmental liabilities could incur substantial costs, including cleanup and fines, affecting the company's financial condition[85]. - The company faces risks related to global climate change, which may impact its market outlook and operational costs[86]. Financial Obligations and Shareholder Impact - As of December 31, 2025, the company's total debt amounted to $54.1 billion, with approximately $15.5 billion in principal payments due over the next three years[89]. - The company expects to require up to $345 million annually for dividends on its 6.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock until October 15, 2027[89]. - The issuance of common stock upon conversion of Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock could dilute existing shareholders' interests[93]. Currency and Commodity Risks - A 10% increase or decrease in foreign currency exchange rates would have impacted unrealized gains by $425 million as of December 31, 2025[273]. - A 10% change in the market price of commodity derivatives would have resulted in a $38 million increase or decrease in unrealized gains as of December 31, 2025[274]. - The deferred compensation liability, marked to market as of December 31, 2025, was $1.7 billion, with a 10% change in fair value affecting the liability by $169 million[275].

"低空经济"如火如荼，许多城市都在加速"向天空要增量"：无人机物流、电力巡检、农业植保、应急救 援等应用不断落地，城市低空交通也开始试点；e-VTOL试飞、取证、文旅观光的消息接连出现。 随着热度走高，大家对产业的好奇也越来越多——"低空经济"讲了许多年，什么时候才能真正铺开？技 术创新有了这么多，哪些场景有望很快用得上？低空经济做大做强，最亟待解决的问题有哪些？它究竟 是"技术的竞赛"，还是"业态的建设"？如果不能形成稳定的运营体系和可持续的商业闭环，这股热潮会 不会滑向"一哄而上、一地鸡毛"？ 在观察者网"2026答案秀·思想者春晚"活动期间，上海通用航空协会专家委员会主任、俄罗斯工程院外 籍院士任和与民航业评论员张仲麟对谈，围绕低空经济从"技术热"到"业态熟"的破局路径、eVTOL商业 化落地的现实梗阻、无人货机的安全监管边界，以及如何跳出"重炒作轻闭环"的产业误区等话题，分享 了独到的行业见解。 任和认为，安全永远是底线，但在安全有保证的前提下，更急迫的是把商业运营跑通。技术当然重要， 不过低空经济要真正落地，关键不在于把航空器做出来，而在于先把"业态"搭起来：航空器只是其中一 环，决定能否规模化运行 ...