Citigroup Inc. ( C ) is scheduled to release its Q4 2025 results on January 14, 2026. There are other better-placed analysts with a line into the company to make the top and bottom-line forecasts thatMarty Popoff has over 20 years of capital markets experience, as a trader, marketer and in a pinch, structurer, primarily in the fields of Government and Corporate Bonds, Interest Rate Derivatives, Credit Derivatives, and Securitization. He has spoken at many conferences and taught Risk Management at the gradua ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi is expected to incur a pre-tax loss of approximately $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the sale of its remaining operations in Russia, which is seen as a step towards resolving legacy issues and transforming the bank [1][3]. Financial Impact - The total loss from the sale to Renaissance Capital amounts to $1.6 billion, but this will be partially offset by $200 million in expected proceeds and another $200 million from the derecognition of Citi's fully reserved net investment [2]. - As of September 30, Citi had about $1.8 billion of exposure to Russia, significantly reduced from $9.8 billion at the time of the Ukraine invasion in 2022 [5]. Strategic Moves - Citi's board approved the sale on December 29, with the expectation that the deal will close in the first half of 2026. The remaining Russia business will be reclassified as "held for sale" [3][4]. - The loss related to the sale is attributed to currency translation adjustments, which will not affect Citi's common equity tier 1 capital [6].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's recent report indicates that Morgan Stanley (MS.US) is increasingly positioned as a "high-end/premium" bank and investment banking financial complex, but the current valuation reflects the market's consensus on optimal investment returns, leading Citigroup to maintain a "neutral" rating with a target price of $170, suggesting a significant price correction in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Valuation and Market Expectations - The market has priced in "best-in-class returns," resulting in a significant premium on Morgan Stanley's stock price under the "implied cost of equity capital" framework, making the risk/reward ratio less favorable compared to other investment opportunities in the financial sector [2] - Citigroup believes that Morgan Stanley's profit elasticity is primarily driven by cost discipline rather than aggressive market-driven assumptions, with an expected 2% upward revision in overall earnings for 2026 due to slower expense growth and better cost management [2][5] Group 2: Earnings Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for Morgan Stanley are as follows: 2024A at $7.95, 2025E at $9.90, and 2026E at $11.00, with a slight upward revision for 2026 compared to previous estimates [3] - The report highlights that Morgan Stanley remains one of the most crowded consensus longs within Citigroup's coverage, indicating high sensitivity of the stock price to "slightly below stringent expectations" in the short to medium term [3] Group 3: Business Model and Risk Factors - Citigroup's assessment of Morgan Stanley's current stock price and valuation can be summarized as "high-quality company + fundamentally sound business model, but valuation and positioning significantly lower investment success rates" [4] - The implied cost of equity capital is estimated at approximately 8.7%, indicating that the current price reflects a fully priced return, while the target price model uses a 9.3% cost of equity capital, suggesting that the current valuation is not cheap [5] - Citigroup emphasizes that Morgan Stanley's cyclical exposure remains significant, particularly in investment banking and capital markets, with core risks including a downturn in capital market activities and valuations, which could severely impact profitability if economic growth and volatility fall below expectations [5]

Vi e w p o i n t | 30 Dec 2025 23:24:00 ET │ 18 pages Asia FX and Rates Strategy Asia Flow Overview CITI'S TAKE December saw broad based inflows into Korean and Indonesian assets while India and Taiwan saw outflows. Foreign investments in Chinese fixed income declined for a seventh consecutive month, the trend was predominantly driven by the substantial sell-off in NCDs, whereas reduction in CGBs remained measured. Overall, aggregate portfolio inflows into EM Asia for 2025 totaled USD 59bn, characterizing t ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the S&P 500 rising by 0.66%, the Nasdaq declining by 0.03%, and the Dow Jones increasing by 0.19% [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw widespread gains, with Goldman Sachs surging by 4.02%, Morgan Stanley increasing by 2.46%, and other major banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Zions Bancorporation, and Alliance West Bank all rising by over 1% [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector displayed continued divergence, highlighted by Intel's significant increase of 6.72% and AMD's rise of 4.35%. However, notable declines were observed in Netflix, which fell by 3.95%, Tesla down by 2.59%, and Microsoft decreasing by 2.21%, with Amazon and META also experiencing declines of over 1% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks experienced a strong rally, with the China Golden Dragon index rising by 4.38%. Baidu saw a remarkable increase of 15.03%, while Bilibili rose by 7.24%, NetEase by 7.22%, Alibaba by 6.25%, and Tencent Holdings and iQIYI also saw gains exceeding 5% [3] Gold Market - The COMEX gold market experienced volatility, initially rising by 1.91% before closing slightly up by 0.02% at $4341.9 per ounce. The intraday trading range saw a low of $4340 and a high of $4414.8 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup Inc. is recognized as one of the 20 Best Performing Dividend Stocks in 2025, indicating strong investor confidence and performance expectations for the company [1]. Group 1: Company Operations and Financial Performance - Citigroup plans to sell its remaining operations in Russia, anticipating a pre-tax loss of $1.2 billion in Q4 2025 due to this exit [2]. - JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on Citigroup, expecting a modest improvement in Citi's capital ratio post-sale, as it will reduce risk-weighted assets [2]. - In Q3 2025, Citigroup's revenue increased by 9% year-over-year, with earnings per share rising to $1.86 from $1.51 in Q3 2024 [3]. - Adjusted earnings, accounting for one-time items related to an asset divestiture, would have been $2.24 per share, highlighting significant year-over-year improvement [4]. - The return on average tangible common equity increased by one percentage point compared to the previous year, reflecting enhanced profitability [4]. Group 2: Company Profile - Citigroup operates as a global financial services firm, providing a range of services including banking, credit, investment, and wealth management to various clients including individuals, businesses, governments, and institutions [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Citigroup's report forecasts Macau's gaming revenue for December 2025 to reach MOP 20.888 billion, averaging approximately MOP 674 million per day, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% and about 91% of the levels seen in December 2019 [1] - The report highlights that the December 2025 revenue figure is about 5% lower than Citigroup's predictions and 3% below market expectations, primarily due to unusually low VIP room win rates, likely below 3% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, Macau's total gaming revenue is projected to be MOP 247.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9%, surpassing the Macau government's initial forecast of MOP 240 billion and the revised estimate of MOP 228 billion [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to January 2026, Macau is set to kick off a series of exciting events, including the "Music Connection Plan 2" hosted by Jiangsu TV and iQIYI on January 2, and a Super Junior concert at the Galaxy Macau from January 9 to 11 [1] - Citigroup maintains its forecast for January 2026 gaming revenue at MOP 21.5 billion, averaging about MOP 694 million per day, which implies an 18% year-on-year growth [1] - For the combined gaming revenue forecast for January and February, accounting for the lunar new year timing differences, the estimate stands at MOP 42 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup Inc. has approved the sale of its Russian unit, AO Citibank, to Renaissance Capital, with the transaction expected to result in a pre-tax loss of approximately $1.2 billion due to currency translation [3][5] - The deal is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026, following years of consideration for an exit from Russia amid increasing US and EU sanctions [4][3] - The divestiture is expected to enhance Citigroup's CET1 Capital by deconsolidating associated risk-weighted assets [5] Group 2 - Citigroup's decision to exit Russia aligns with similar actions taken by other financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, which also received approval to sell its Russian operations [4] - The bank had already begun winding down consumer and local commercial banking in Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, limiting its institutional banking services to meet legal and regulatory obligations [4]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. financial markets are experiencing a pause for the New Year's Day holiday, with trading set to resume on January 2nd, 2026. Despite a recent pullback, 2025 was a strong year for major stock indexes, which posted significant gains. Market Performance - On December 31st, 2025, major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, continuing a four-session losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 48,063.29, the S&P 500 declined 0.7% to 6,845.50, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% to 23,241.99. Trading volume was light as many institutional investors had closed their books for the year [2][3]. - Sector performance was predominantly negative, with technology stocks being a major drag. The Energy Select Sector SPDR rose 0.8%, while the Information Technology Select Sector SPDR, Financials Select Sector SPDR, and Industrials Select Sector SPDR all declined by 0.3% [4]. Notable Stock Movements - Ares Management Corporation saw a share decline of 3.4%. Micron Technology and Western Digital experienced drops of 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Corcept Therapeutics shares plunged significantly after the FDA did not approve its treatment. Conversely, Nike shares rose 4.1% following the CEO's purchase of approximately $1 million in company stock [5]. Year-End Market Drivers - The strong performance in 2025 was largely driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, with companies like Micron Technology, Palantir, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, and Nvidia being significant contributors. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up approximately 16.4%, the Nasdaq Composite surged around 20.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 13% [6]. Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are scheduled for early January, including Initial Claims data and Construction PDF on January 2nd, ISM Manufacturing index on January 5th, and various employment reports on January 7th. Important inflation indicators like the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released on January 13th and 14th, respectively [8]. Federal Reserve Meeting - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for January 28th, where market participants will seek guidance on monetary policy for 2026, particularly regarding inflation and potential interest rate adjustments [9]. Upcoming Earnings Releases - The earnings season for Q4 2025 will begin to gain momentum later in January, with notable companies like BHP Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America expected to report. These earnings will provide critical insights into corporate performance and outlooks for the new year [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Stablecoins Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **stablecoin** market and its evolution, highlighting its role in the broader **blockchain** and **digital asset** ecosystem [11][24][25]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Growth Projections**: - Stablecoin issuance is forecasted to reach **$1.9 trillion** in the base case and **$4.0 trillion** in the bull case by 2030, revised from previous estimates of **$1.6 trillion** and **$3.7 trillion** respectively [13][30]. - The issuance volume has increased from approximately **$200 billion** at the start of 2025 to about **$280 billion** [12][53]. 2. **Drivers of Growth**: - Growth is primarily driven by the **crypto-native ecosystem**, **e-commerce**, and **international demand** for holding USD [25]. - The report emphasizes that stablecoins will coexist with other on-chain money formats, particularly **bank tokens** [25][26]. 3. **Institutional Adoption**: - Institutional adoption of stablecoins is still in its early stages, rated at **0.5** on a scale of 0 to 10, but interest is growing among banks and asset managers [57]. - Transaction volumes in stablecoins are approaching **$1 trillion per month**, nearly double from the previous year [57][62]. 4. **Transaction Velocity**: - Stablecoins could support nearly **$100 trillion** in transaction activity by 2030 under the base case, with the bull case suggesting up to **$200 trillion** [30][89]. 5. **Regulatory Environment**: - The passage of the **GENIUS Act** is seen as a game changer for stablecoin legislation, promoting innovation and consumer protection [36][37]. - Regulatory clarity is expected to drive further institutional adoption and integration of stablecoins into existing financial systems [66][67]. 6. **Bank Tokens vs. Stablecoins**: - Bank tokens, which offer trust and regulatory safeguards, may see transaction volumes exceed those of stablecoins by 2030 [17][26]. - The report suggests that bank tokens could become a preferred choice for many corporates due to their integration with existing financial systems [92]. Additional Important Insights - **Ecosystem Integration**: Major payment networks are beginning to support stablecoin settlements, facilitating easier adoption for end-users [72]. - **Global Trends**: The report notes that while the U.S. is a significant market, regions like **Hong Kong** and the **UAE** are also becoming active hubs for stablecoin development [30][72]. - **Use Cases**: Stablecoins are increasingly being recognized not just for crypto trading but as infrastructure for **24x7 liquidity** and **real-time money movement** [62][104]. - **Challenges**: Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain for wider adoption, including regulatory hurdles and the need for interoperability among different digital money formats [45][75]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the stablecoin market, its growth potential, and the evolving regulatory landscape.