里昂发表研报指，截至昨日(23日)数据显示，春节假期内地消费整体维持正面，旅游出行热度良好。跨 境旅游方面，国家移民管理局预计，日均跨境客流量年增约14%。海南免税店的消费在更强劲的促销活 动及政策推动的增量需求下保持韧性，但很大程度上已反映在中国中免的股价中。但电影票房表现疲 软，创下八年来的最低纪录。 此外，里昂的渠道调查显示，受金价波动影响，黄金珠宝销售仍面临压力，而部分奢侈品牌则在年初至 今表现强劲。该行认为，春节数据更偏向强劲的出行及旅游业，且高端消费表现良好，将有利里昂首选 股包括：新秀丽、法国奢侈品巨擘LVMH和卡地亚母公司瑞士历峰集团，以及与国内需求相关的安踏体 育。 ...

Group 1 - Several brands reported stable growth or exceeded market expectations, with DTC channels becoming the core growth engine, particularly in North America and China [2] - Under Armour's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.09, significantly better than the expected loss of $0.02 per share [3][4] - Canada Goose's third-quarter revenue grew by 14.2%, driven by strong performance in the Chinese market, which has become a key growth driver [7] Group 2 - Estée Lauder reported a net sales increase of 6% to $4.2 billion, returning to profitability with a net profit of $162 million, attributed to its transformation strategy [8] - Ralph Lauren's third-quarter net profit increased by 21.6% to $361.6 million, with net sales rising by 12% to $2.4 billion, driven by a significant increase in average unit retail price [9][10] - Tapestry's Coach brand saw a 25% increase in sales to $2.1 billion, contributing to record overall performance for the group [15][16] Group 3 - Capri Holdings reported a quarterly revenue of $1.025 billion, exceeding expectations, with a significant reduction in net debt to $80 million [19][20] - The luxury sector is witnessing strategic shifts, with brands like Pandora entering the platinum jewelry market to mitigate silver price volatility [17][18] - Bottega Veneta appointed Emilie Leblanc as the new global marketing and communications director, indicating a focus on stabilizing brand messaging during leadership transitions [22][23] Group 4 - The luxury watch sector is facing challenges, with Richemont considering the sale of Jaeger-LeCoultre due to ongoing performance issues in its watch division [11][12] - Zegna Group reported a slight revenue decline of 1.5% for the fiscal year, with DTC channels showing strong growth while wholesale channels contracted [23][24]

Group 1: Luxury Goods Industry Trends - Companies in the luxury goods sector are focusing on mergers and acquisitions to optimize brand portfolios and enhance core business operations, as seen with China Duty Free Group's acquisition of DFS's Hong Kong and Macau operations and LVMH's investment [1] - The luxury watch market is witnessing consolidation, exemplified by the Swiss Watches of Switzerland Group's acquisition of Deutsch & Deutsch, reinforcing its position in the U.S. high-end watch market [4][5] - Richemont's sale of Baume & Mercier to Damiani reflects a strategic move to streamline its brand matrix and concentrate on higher-end watch brands [6][7] Group 2: Consumer Goods Performance - Procter & Gamble reported Q2 net sales of $22.208 billion, a slight increase of 1% year-over-year, with a net profit of $4.331 billion, down 7% [2] - The beauty segment of Procter & Gamble is a growth driver, with sales reaching $4.039 billion, up 5% year-over-year, supported by strong performance in markets outside the U.S. [3] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Leadership Changes - Nike is undergoing leadership changes in its Greater China region, appointing Cathy Sparks as the new General Manager to address declining sales, which fell 17% year-over-year in Q2 [8][9] - L'Occitane is considering an IPO in the U.S. after completing its privatization, aiming to align its market strategy with its business layout [10][11] Group 4: Regional Market Insights - Burberry's retail revenue reached £665 million, with a 1% year-over-year increase, driven by a 6% growth in the Greater China region [12][13] - The appointment of Daniele Zito as Chief Commercial Officer at Kering aims to enhance operational efficiency and retail value across its brands [14][15] Group 5: Strategic Investments - L Catterton's acquisition of a minority stake in EX NIHILO aims to bolster the brand's presence in the high-end perfume market, capitalizing on the growing demand for luxury fragrances [19][20]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The report highlights a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector as tariff impacts are easing, leading to improved export conditions. The demand side shows a mixed performance in global apparel retail, with domestic recovery being weak while overseas apparel demand remains stable. The export decline has narrowed following progress in US-China trade negotiations, and manufacturing orders are expected to improve in 2026 due to a healthy inventory level among downstream brand clients [3][6][13]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which has a lower exposure to the US market and is expected to see marginal improvements from major clients, and Huayi Group, which is experiencing strong growth from new clients and is ramping up production capacity [3][21][29]. Group 2: Sportswear Sector - The domestic sportswear market is showing signs of weak recovery, with high-end brands like Li Ning and Tebu International demonstrating resilience. The report anticipates a recovery in 2026 driven by macroeconomic improvements and policy catalysts, particularly with the upcoming Olympic events [3][6][19]. - Internationally, high-end sports brands are experiencing differentiated growth dynamics. ON is maintaining a strong brand image and expanding in the Asia-Pacific market, while Amer Sports is benefiting from its multi-brand strategy. However, brands like Lululemon and Deckers are facing short-term pressures in the North American market [3][6][19]. Group 3: Luxury Goods Sector - The luxury goods market in China is showing signs of gradual recovery, driven by wealth effects from the capital market and stabilization in the real estate market. Sales from luxury groups like LVMH and Richemont have improved significantly in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in the luxury sector [3][7]. - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior, with a loss of "aspirational consumers" and an increase in the importance of top-tier customers. This shift is leading to a focus on value, experience, and cost-effectiveness in luxury consumption, which is benefiting local high-end brands [4][7].

Core Insights - Richemont reported a total sales increase of 11% year-on-year to €6.399 billion for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026, ending December 31, 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Distribution Channel - Retail channel sales increased by 12% year-on-year [1] - Online sales grew by 5% year-on-year [1] - Wholesale and authorized channel sales rose by 9% year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - Asia-Pacific sales increased by 6% year-on-year, with China market sales growing by 2% in the third quarter [1] - European sales rose by 8% year-on-year [1] - Americas market sales increased by 14% year-on-year [1] - Middle East and Africa sales grew by 20% year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Department - The jewelry segment, led by Cartier, saw a sales increase of 14% to €4.785 billion [1] - The specialist watchmaking segment reported a sales increase of 7% to €0.872 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG (CFRUY) - CFRUY currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable momentum characteristic [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - Over the past week, CFRUY shares increased by 2.28%, while the Zacks Retail - Jewelry industry declined by 0.85% [5] - In the last month, CFRUY's price change was 0.88%, outperforming the industry's 0.14% [5] - Over the past quarter, CFRUY shares rose by 11.4%, and over the last year, they gained 42.15%, compared to the S&P 500's increases of 3.44% and 18.1%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - CFRUY's average 20-day trading volume is 302,204 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 5 earnings estimates for CFRUY have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, raising the consensus estimate from $0.69 to $0.73 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 4 estimates have also moved upwards, indicating positive sentiment [9] Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, CFRUY is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B, making it a strong candidate for near-term investment [11]

Group 1 - Boot Barn (BOOT) has shown strong year-to-date performance, with a return of approximately 17.4%, outperforming the average gain of 6.9% in the Retail-Wholesale sector [4] - The Zacks Rank for Boot Barn is currently 2 (Buy), indicating positive analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook, with a consensus estimate for full-year earnings increasing by 8.3% over the past three months [3] - Boot Barn belongs to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which has seen a decline of about 1.1% this year, further highlighting Boot Barn's superior performance within its industry [5] Group 2 - The Retail-Wholesale group consists of 196 companies and is currently ranked 8 within the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates 16 different sector groups [2] - Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG (CFRUY) is another notable stock in the Retail-Wholesale sector, having returned 42.2% since the beginning of the year, and also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4][5] - The Retail - Jewelry industry, to which Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG belongs, is ranked 55 and has experienced a decline of 0.5% this year [6]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's report positions Lao Pu Gold as a high-end local brand capable of competing with global luxury giants like Tiffany and Richemont, suggesting it should be valued within the international luxury goods framework rather than as a traditional jewelry stock [1] Group 1: Company Comparison - HSBC's analysis highlights that while Richemont and Lao Pu Gold operate in similar high-end jewelry markets, their operational models differ significantly, with Lao Pu Gold showing a better growth outlook and an implied upside of approximately 52%, compared to Richemont's 30% [3][9] - Lao Pu Gold is expected to surpass Richemont's revenue in the Chinese market in the second half of 2025, with Richemont currently accounting for about 14% of its global revenue [5] - Lao Pu Gold's average single-store sales in mainland China are nearly double that of Cartier and triple that of Van Cleef & Arpels, indicating a strong market position [3] Group 2: Market Growth and Trends - China is projected to be the largest jewelry market, reaching a size of $114 billion by 2024, with luxury jewelry growth outpacing that of the U.S., Japan, and Europe at a rate of 10.6% [6][7] - The luxury jewelry sector is the fastest-growing category within the luxury goods industry, benefiting from better product value propositions and the ability to attract diverse generations [7] - The global jewelry industry remains fragmented, with a low brand penetration of only 33%, providing opportunities for both Lao Pu Gold and Richemont to capture market share from unbranded competitors [7] Group 3: Investment Outlook - HSBC maintains a "buy" rating for both companies, emphasizing that Lao Pu Gold has a higher implied upside and a projected return on investment of 62.6% by 2027, compared to Richemont's 31.8% [9] - Lao Pu Gold's success is attributed to its unique positioning in the high-end jewelry market and its transition from a "golden flywheel" to a "brand flywheel" model, focusing on cultural heritage, design innovation, and enhanced customer experience [9]

Group 1 - ALA A, a French designer brand, officially entered Tmall Luxury on December 11, marking its expansion in the Asian market [1][2] - The brand, founded by designer Azzedine Alaïa in 1964, has gained popularity with products like the ALA A flat mesh ballet shoes and Le Coeur heart bag, consistently ranking in the top 20 of the Lyst popular brand list for eight consecutive quarters [2] - ALA A's flagship store opened in Beijing in November, and the launch of its Tmall flagship store allows consumers to experience luxury online shopping anytime and anywhere [2] Group 2 - Tmall Luxury is seen as the best platform for luxury brands' digital operations, attracting over 200 official luxury brand entries, including major groups like LVMH, Kering, Chanel, Hermès, and Richemont [3] - During this year's Double 11 shopping festival, brands such as Balenciaga, Burberry, and Coach achieved high double-digit growth on Tmall [3]

Core Insights - Rothschild's latest industry report indicates that Chinese high-end gold brand Laopu Gold is expected to surpass Richemont's jewelry business in China by 2025, showcasing a successful case of local brands breaking into the international luxury market through differentiated strategies centered on intangible cultural heritage and Eastern culture [1][3] Performance Metrics - Laopu Gold's average sales per store reached 459 million yuan in the first half of 2025, significantly outperforming domestic and international competitors, with its Beijing SKP store achieving annual sales exceeding 3 billion yuan [3] - The brand's membership has grown to 480,000, and it has over 2,100 original design reserves, indicating a strong core competitive advantage [3] Market Positioning - Laopu Gold's differentiation strategy focuses on traditional gold craftsmanship and resonates with high-net-worth individuals, achieving a consumer overlap rate of 77.3% with international luxury brands [5] - Richemont has acknowledged the competitive landscape with Laopu Gold, adopting an open stance towards competition [5] Challenges and Variables - Laopu Gold's growth is challenged by its heavy reliance on offline stores, with online revenue accounting for only 13.1% (approximately 1.618 billion yuan) in the first half of 2025, limiting penetration in non-first-tier cities [7] - The brand's customer structure shows that about 12% of revenue comes from high-frequency buyers, indicating a significant portion of sales is driven by specific channel attributes [7] Industry Context - Richemont's global sales for the fiscal year 2025 are projected to reach 21.4 billion euros, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 4%, contrasting with Laopu Gold's explosive growth [8] - Laopu Gold's breakthrough provides a differentiated reference path for the development of local high-end jewelry brands [8]