Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward revision of FY25 EPS forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) by 7% to HKD 0.54, while maintaining FY26 EPS forecast at HKD 0.76 and introducing FY27 EPS forecast at HKD 0.83. The current stock price corresponds to 18/13/12 times FY25/26/27 P/E ratios, with a target price increase of 46% to HKD 11.41, corresponding to 15 times FY26 P/E [1]. Group 1 - The company reported a 11.6% year-on-year decline in overall retail value for 4QFY25, with declines of 10.4% in mainland China and 20.7% in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - Same-store sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau fell by 13.2% and 22.5% respectively [2]. - Despite the rising gold prices, mainland China business showed a sequential improvement, with retail value and same-store sales declining by 10.4% and 13.2% respectively, compared to previous quarter declines of 13.0% and 16.1% [3]. Group 2 - The company has made positive progress in channel upgrades and product innovation, opening 5 new concept stores in FY25, which have shown higher store efficiency and sales performance [4]. - New product lines, such as the Chuanfu series and the Palace Museum series, achieved sales exceeding HKD 4 billion each in FY25, reflecting the company's competitive strength in product design and innovation [4]. - The proportion of retail value from priced products surpassed 25% in the latest quarter, up from 9% in the same period last year, contributing to strong profitability [4]. Group 3 - For FY26, the company will continue to focus on improving store efficiency and product optimization, with a strategy to enhance same-store sales growth [5]. - The management plans to launch a new flagship product series, the Chuanxi series, in April 2025, and aims to increase the sales proportion of priced gold products to 20-23% in FY26 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's retail value experienced a decline in the fourth quarter, influenced by external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices, with a notable drop in sales across various markets [1][2] Group 1: Retail Performance - The group's retail value for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with mainland China down 10.4% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets down 20.7% [1] - Same-store sales in mainland China fell by 13.2% for direct stores and 8.7% for franchise stores, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a similar trend with a 22.5% decline in same-store sales [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry remained resilient, increasing to HKD 6,400 in mainland China and HKD 8,600 in Hong Kong and Macau [1] Group 2: Product and Market Insights - Despite a challenging macro environment, strong sales of gold-inlaid diamond and other gemstone products led to a significant narrowing of the same-store sales decline for jewelry in mainland China [2] - The average selling price of jewelry in mainland China surged to HKD 10,900, while Hong Kong and Macau reached HKD 16,000 [2] - The company optimized its retail network by closing 395 retail points in mainland China and opening one in Hong Kong and Macau, while also closing three points in Japan and Vietnam [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is experiencing a decline in same-store sales due to external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices, but product optimization measures and effective marketing campaigns have led to a reduction in the sales decline in mainland China [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the fourth quarter, same-store sales in mainland China for direct stores decreased by 13.2% year-on-year [1] - Same-store sales for franchise stores in mainland China fell by 8.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - External macroeconomic factors and elevated gold prices continue to impact consumer sentiment [1] - The company's product optimization measures have shown positive results, driving strong growth momentum and demand for priced products [1] Group 3: Marketing Efforts - Effective marketing activities for the Lunar New Year contributed to the narrowing of the same-store sales decline in mainland China [1]

金融界4月21日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证港股通自由现金流指数 (港股通现金流，932457)报 1257.00点。 数据统计显示，中证港股通自由现金流指数近一个月下跌11.01%，近三个月上涨0.54%。 作者：行情君 从中证港股通自由现金流指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证港股通自由现金流指数持仓样本的行业来看，能源占比34.31%、可选消费占比26.62%、原材料 占比12.84%、工业占比10.39%、通信服务占比6.96%、医药卫生占比4.19%、主要消费占比2.60%、公用 事业占比1.73%、信息技术占比0.35%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当港股通证券范 围发生变动导致样本不再满足互联互通资格时，指数将相应调整。 本文源自：金融界 据了 ...

周大福 20250415 Q&A 周大福的发展历程以及市场当前如何看待周大福这家公司？ 周大福的发展可以分为两个主要阶段。第一个阶段是 1998 年到 2017 年，这 期间公司在一二线城市迅速扩张，门店数量接近 3,000 家，建立了高端品牌形 象，其售价通常比其他品牌贵 10%到 20%。第二个阶段是 2018 年到 2023 年，公司采取渠道下沉策略，依托新城镇计划和省代策略，重点向三四线城市 扩展，门店数量从 3,000 家迅速增加到 7,500 家。然而，高速扩张带来了同店 销售压力和门店关闭问题。2022 年开始，公司进入关店周期，同时面临行业 竞争加剧和金价上涨的冲击。 市场对周大福的看法经历了调整阵痛期，但从 2024 年底至 2025 年初，公司发生了重大变化。同店销售逐步改善，从去年 （2024 年）Q4 开始下滑幅度明显收窄，今年（2025 年）一季度进一步收窄。 预计从今年（2025 年）四月份起，公司动销水平将迎来明显拐点。 • 周大福过去十个月净关店约 800 家，目前门店数量为六千多家，预计 2025 和 2026 年将继续关闭低效门店，但关店压力已初步释放。同时， 新概念形象店 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising international gold prices have led to significant price increases in gold jewelry, with brands like Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices and consumers showing a preference for smaller, more stylish pieces [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments and Consumer Preferences - Chow Tai Fook announced that it will adjust the prices of some products within March, with certain styles increasing by over 1,000 yuan [1]. - The trend among consumers is shifting towards "small and beautiful" gold jewelry, as many are opting for smaller weights due to high gold prices [2]. - Other brands, such as Lao Pu Gold, have also raised their prices, with increases ranging from 5% to 12% for popular styles [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sales Growth - The demand for gold recovery services has surged, with many customers, including long-term investors, seeking to sell their gold assets amid rising prices [2]. - The sales of gold jewelry have positively impacted company performance, with Lao Pu Gold projecting a net profit of approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of about 236% to 260% [3]. - Hunan Gold expects a net profit of 783 million to 929 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60% to 90%, driven by increased sales prices of gold and antimony products [3].

人事变动 周大福任命首席财务官 中国珠宝集团周大福任命叶家盈（Karen Yih）出任周大福珠宝集团的首席财务官，接替董事局成员兼执行董事郑 炳熙，后者将专注于策略性监督，负责资本管理、投资者关系及公司秘书事务。自4月1日生效。 在新职位上，叶家盈将致力于推动集团在财务管理、长期增长和转型策略（包括财务规划与分析、财务报告、财 务运营管理、风险管理及法律事务）等方面的进展。加入集团之前，她曾担任星巴克中国的首席财务官，领导财 务团队支持可持续的业务增长、提升资本回报，同时确保财务纪律。在她早期的职业生涯中曾在百事可乐亚太区 和星巴克亚太区担任高级领导职位，负责主导进入新市场以及拓展多个国际市场的工作。 传 Prada 或将新加入一名联合创意总监 周大福任命首席财务官，传 Prada 或将新加入一名联合 创意总监｜人事周报 Nike首席战略官和传播官Daniel Heaf将离任，他的职位将被取消，他负责的团队也将被整合至财务部门。此外， 首席通讯官KeJuan Wilkins也将离职，他已在公司工作近20年。他在前任首席执行官John Donahoe的领导下于2023 年升任首席通讯官，集团尚未任命其继任者。据 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha March 17, 2025 05:07 AM GMT Investors generally agreed with our EW thesis for Laopu - it's hard to chase given rich valuations but they also found it difficult to short-sell given strong demand sentiment and stock momentum. More feedback on Laopu on the next page... | M 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | March 17, 2025 05:07 AM GMT | | | | China Gold Jewelry Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Hildy Ling | | | | Equity Analyst | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [2][4] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in RSV of 14.2% in FY2025Q3, but the sales decline has narrowed compared to Q2. The decline in mainland RSV was 13%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a decline of 20.4% [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-margin, well-designed gold products, which rose from 6.9% to 18.7% [1] - The company is undergoing a net store closure strategy, with 261 stores closed in mainland China by the end of December 2024, emphasizing the importance of single-store operations [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 16.3% in FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of approximately 5% [2] - The company’s revenue for FY2025 is estimated at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 6.15 billion HKD [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.62 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 times [3][4] Sales Performance - In FY2025Q3, the mainland's same-store sales declined by 16.1% for direct stores and 12.3% for franchise stores, indicating a better performance for franchises due to faster operational efficiency improvements [1] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales for jewelry embedded products increased by 33.7%, while gold products saw a decline of 36.2% [1] Store Operations - As of December 2024, Chow Tai Fook operated a total of 6,836 stores globally, with 6,685 in mainland China, 86 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 65 in other markets [1] - The company continues to focus on rectifying underperforming stores in response to the fluctuating consumer environment [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company reported a same-store sales decline of 14.2% year-on-year for FY25Q3, with specific declines of 13.0% in mainland China and 20.4% in Hong Kong and Macau [3][4] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to boost sales, with the company focusing on product structure adjustments and channel optimization, which may lead to improved profitability [5] - The company maintains its annual guidance despite the challenges faced in the retail environment [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at 108,713 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.8%. For FY2025, revenue is expected to decline to 88,968 million HKD, a decrease of 18.2% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025 is estimated at 5,412 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.7% [7][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 29.7% in FY2025, compared to 20.5% in FY2024 [7][10] Market Analysis - In mainland China, the same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of fixed-price gold products, which has positively impacted profitability [4][5] - In Hong Kong and Macau, the sales of jewelry products have shown better performance, with a 33.7% increase in same-store sales for jewelry embedded products, while gold product sales declined by 36.2% [5][8] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a share buyback plan of 2 billion HKD, with 275 million HKD already repurchased as of January 27, 2025 [5] - The potential dividend yield for FY2025 is projected at 5.8% [5]