Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by over 1% during the day [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.4% [1] - Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) saw a rise of over 7% [1] Group 2 - Meituan (03690.HK) and Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) both experienced an increase of nearly 6% [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme RMB Index (931455) increased by 0.11% as of May 6, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Nongfu Spring (09633) up 7.49%, MGM China (02282) up 6.60%, Chow Tai Fook (01929) up 6.04%, Sands China Ltd. (01928) up 5.21%, and Meituan-W (03690) up 4.98% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Consumer ETF (159735) rose by 3.32%, with the latest price at 0.81 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 4.53% as of April 30, 2025 [1] - The trading activity for the Hong Kong Stock Consumer ETF was active, with a turnover of 24.85% and a transaction volume of 159 million yuan. The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 154 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Securities, the impact of the U.S. so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy is diminishing, leading to a gradual recovery in investor risk appetite. Positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to support stable earnings growth in Hong Kong stocks [2] - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at historically low to medium levels, indicating high medium to long-term investment value. Short-term focus should be on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies, technology sectors with improved self-sufficiency, and sectors with low trade dependency and high dividend yields [2]

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it provides insights into the company's performance and expectations for future profitability [4][8]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong/Macao markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][9]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products by optimizing its product mix and adjusting pricing, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from HK$5,600 in FY24, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose to HK$8,600, a 14.7% increase from HK$7,500 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, which accounted for 19% of total RSV in FY25, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This proportion is expected to increase to 20%-23% in FY26 [3][11]. - The RSV share of priced products in the gold jewelry category rose from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY25, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it discusses expectations for gross profit margin and operating profit margin improvements, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][9][11]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][10]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products through product mix optimization and flexible pricing adjustments, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][9][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased to HK$8,600, a 14.7% rise [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, achieving a 19% share of total RSV in FY2025, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This share is expected to rise to 20%-23% in FY2026 [3][11]. - The RSV share of set-price products in the gold jewelry category increased from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY2025, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

For those looking to find strong Retail-Wholesale stocks, it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers. Has CHOW TAI FOOK (CJEWY) been one of those stocks this year? Let's take a closer look at the stock's year-to-date performance to find out.CHOW TAI FOOK is one of 210 individual stocks in the Retail-Wholesale sector. Collectively, these companies sit at #12 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different groups, measuring the average Zacks Ra ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4] Core Views - The overall retail value for FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in mainland China retail value. Same-store sales in mainland China dropped by 13.2%, with specific declines in jewelry and gold products [1][7] - The company has seen a narrowing decline in retail values, with notable performance from the "Chuanfu" and "Palace Museum" series, achieving sales of 4 billion HKD each for the fiscal year [1][7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving profitability, with a total of 6,423 stores at the end of FY25, having closed 892 stores during the year [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for FY2025 is 90.375 billion HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 17%. Expected net profit for FY2025 is 5.547 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% decrease [3][11] - The current market capitalization is 90 billion HKD, with a PE ratio of 15X for FY26 [4][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 25.6% [4] Store Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China for FY25Q4 saw a decline of 13.2%, with a notable 22.5% drop in Hong Kong and Macau [1][7] - The company has opened new fashion stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, which have performed above average in their initial months [1][7] Product Performance - Retail value for jewelry and platinum products in mainland China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while gold product sales saw a decline of 12.3% [1][7] - The proportion of priced products in the gold category increased significantly from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales decline has narrowed, aligning with expectations, while operational quality improvements and better product mix have offset the impact of increased store closures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The group's operational quality has improved, leading to enhanced productivity and expanded profit margins, which countered the negative effects of a rising closure rate [1] - Chow Tai Fook is expected to meet its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2025, with gross margin and operating profit margin anticipated to exceed guidance [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share from fiscal years 2025 to 2027 is approximately 20% [1] Group 2: Strategic Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on the group, with a target price set at HKD 10.5 [1] - The firm believes that Chow Tai Fook's ongoing focus on operational quality will lead to a reduction in net store closures for the fiscal year 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [3][6] Core Views - The company's retail sales decline continues to narrow, with a 11.6% year-on-year decrease in RSV for FY2025Q4, showing improvement compared to FY2025Q3 [1][3] - The company is expected to experience a high double-digit revenue decline for FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 2.4% to HKD 6.342 billion [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q4, the mainland RSV decreased by 10.4%, attributed to macroeconomic fluctuations and high gold prices affecting same-store sales, alongside a continued net store closure strategy [2][3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV fell by 20.7%, with same-store sales down 22.5%, primarily due to changes in consumer behavior and reduced spending by mainland tourists [3][11] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025 is expected to decline by 19.3%, with net profit projected at HKD 6.342 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [5][14] - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to HKD 6.342 billion, HKD 7.249 billion, and HKD 8.217 billion respectively, with a corresponding FY2025 PE ratio of 15 times [3][5] Store Operations - The company closed 395 stores in mainland China during FY2025Q4, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability [11][3] - As of March 2025, Chow Tai Fook operates 6,423 stores globally, with a strategy to optimize store performance by closing underperforming locations while opening new, higher-efficiency stores [11][3]