Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over new tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, with the Nasdaq-100 index dropping by 11% since April 2. However, Costco is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity amidst these concerns due to its unique business model and financial profile [1][2]. Company Financials - For the quarter ended February 16, Costco reported net sales of $62.5 billion and total revenue of $63.7 billion, with merchandise costs at $55.7 billion and operating income of $2.3 billion. Membership fees contributed $1.2 billion to total revenue, indicating a significant recurring revenue stream [4][5]. - Costco's operating expenses totaled $61.4 billion, suggesting a thin margin on merchandise sales, which is typical for brick-and-mortar retailers [4]. Membership Model - The subscription model of Costco, which generates high profit margins, is expected to help the company withstand the impact of tariffs. This model differentiates Costco from other retailers like Walmart and Target [6][5]. - CEO Ron Vachris indicated that about one-third of Costco's U.S. sales are imported, with less than half of those from countries directly targeted by tariffs, providing some reassurance regarding the company's exposure to tariff impacts [8]. Market Positioning - Costco's bulk-buying model and competitive pricing may attract cost-conscious consumers, potentially increasing foot traffic and membership volume as tariffs affect the retail economy [9][10]. - Compared to traditional retailers, Costco may be better positioned to navigate the tariff environment, as consumers may seek alternatives that offer better value [10]. Valuation Insights - Costco's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 50, significantly higher than the average of 20 for the S&P 500, indicating that while the stock is not cheap, it has normalized from a peak of nearly 60 earlier in the year [11][13]. - Despite near-term uncertainties, Costco is seen as well-prepared to manage the effects of tariffs, particularly on its high-margin subscription business, suggesting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [14].

Core Insights - Costco reported net sales of $25.51 billion for March 2025, marking an 8.6% increase from $23.48 billion in March 2024 [1] - For the first 31 weeks of the fiscal year, net sales reached $158.87 billion, up 8.3% from $146.64 billion in the same period last year [1] Sales Performance - Comparable sales for the five weeks ended April 6, 2025, were as follows: - U.S.: 7.5% - Canada: 4.1% - Other International: 2.9% - Total Company: 6.4% - E-commerce: 16.2% [1] - For the 31 weeks, comparable sales were: - U.S.: 7.0% - Canada: 4.9% - Other International: 3.0% - Total Company: 6.1% - E-commerce: 16.8% [1] Adjusted Comparable Sales - Comparable sales excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange for the five weeks were: - U.S.: 8.7% - Canada: 10.6% - Other International: 9.9% - Total Company: 9.1% - E-commerce: 17.5% [1] - For the 31 weeks, adjusted comparable sales were: - U.S.: 8.0% - Canada: 8.9% - Other International: 8.9% - Total Company: 8.3% - E-commerce: 17.7% [1] Additional Context - March 2025 had one additional shopping day compared to the previous year due to the calendar shift of Easter, positively impacting total and comparable sales by approximately 1.5% [1] - Costco operates 903 warehouses globally, with 623 located in the U.S. and Puerto Rico [3]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has experienced a significant stock price increase of 28.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 index [1][2] - The company's strong performance is attributed to consistent same-store sales growth, robust membership renewals, and strength in high-frequency consumer categories [2][7] Membership and Growth Drivers - Costco's membership-based business model is a key growth driver, with a high renewal rate of 93% in the U.S. and Canada, and 90.5% globally [8] - The company reported 78.4 million paid household members, a 6.8% increase year-over-year, with executive memberships growing by 9.1% to 36.9 million, accounting for 47.1% of all paid members [9] - Membership fee income rose by 7.4% year-over-year, with a recent fee increase contributing approximately 3% to this income [9] E-commerce and Expansion - E-commerce sales increased by 20.9%, or 22.2% when adjusted for foreign exchange, reflecting Costco's successful digital transformation [10] - The company plans to open 28 new locations, including 25 new warehouses and three relocations, to further expand its physical footprint [11] Financial Position and Investments - Costco ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $13,158 million, indicating strong liquidity [12] - The company allocated $1.14 billion to capital expenditures in the second quarter and has a $5 billion expenditure plan for fiscal 2025, highlighting its commitment to long-term growth [12] Competitive Landscape - Costco's sales performance occurs in a competitive retail environment, with rivals like Dollar General and Target enhancing their e-commerce capabilities [13] - Monitoring margins is crucial due to potential concerns related to selling, general, and administrative expenses, as well as foreign exchange volatility [14] Valuation and Analyst Estimates - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 48.20, significantly higher than the industry's 29.95 and the S&P 500's 18.58, raising questions about the justification of its premium valuation [15] - Analysts have adjusted their estimates, with the current fiscal year estimate decreasing by 9 cents to $17.94, while the next fiscal year estimate increased by 4 cents to $19.73, indicating expected growth rates of 11.4% and 10%, respectively [17]

Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Economic Impact - President Trump's tariff plan includes varying duties by country, potentially increasing prices for U.S. companies and consumers, leading to a decline in stock performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their worst performances since 2020 [1][2] - Higher prices from tariffs are expected to reduce consumers' buying power and increase costs for companies importing goods, raising concerns about a potential recession [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Details - The tariff plan initially targeted Mexico, Canada, and China but has been expanded to include all countries imposing tariffs on the U.S., with China facing a 54% tariff and the European Union a 20% duty [4] - A baseline tariff of 10% on all imports has been established, but the free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada remains unaffected, allowing certain goods to circulate tax-free [5][6] Group 3: Company Responses - Costco is well-prepared to handle tariffs, with CEO Ron Vachris stating the company can absorb or adjust prices due to its bulk ordering and local sourcing strategies, achieving over 20% savings for customers in China [7][8] - Target has over 45 private labels, with more than 10 generating $1 billion in annual revenue, providing flexibility to manage costs associated with tariffs [9][10] - Amazon may face challenges from tariffs but could benefit as competitors from China become less price-competitive due to the elimination of a tariff exemption on goods valued under $800 [11][12] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Consumer Goods - Despite the immediate challenges posed by tariffs, strong consumer goods companies have the resources to navigate tough economic conditions, as they have previously managed rising inflation and supply chain disruptions [13] - The long-term prospects for quality consumer goods companies remain positive, with the recommendation for investors to hold onto quality stocks and consider adding positions during market dips [14]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has consistently outperformed the broader market, generating a total return of 33% over the past 12 months, significantly ahead of the S&P 500's 9% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, Costco reported a net sales increase of 9.1%, driven by a same-store sales gain of 6.8%, primarily due to higher foot traffic [3] - Strong demand was noted across various categories, including gold and jewelry, gift cards, toys, and home furnishings, with all categories showing double-digit growth [4] - The membership model has proven effective, with a 6.8% year-over-year increase in membership base and a 93% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada [5] Market Position and Resilience - Despite economic uncertainties, Costco is viewed as recession-resistant due to its broad product offerings at low prices, making it an all-weather business [8] - The company has maintained a strong growth trajectory, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing at a compound annual rate of 11.5% over the past decade [6] Stock Performance Outlook - While Costco has a strong historical performance, predicting its stock performance over the next 12 months is challenging [9] - The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.3, which is considered high given its EPS growth of 16.9% in fiscal 2024 and a forecasted 12.2% gain for the current fiscal year [10] - There is a belief that the stock may underperform the S&P 500 despite the potential for higher prices in the future [10]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale Corp is facing challenges due to tariffs impacting apparel and home furnishings, with expectations of a slowdown in sales growth [1] Sales Performance - The company is anticipated to report a deceleration in total comparable sales (comps) for March to 2.5%, down from 7.7% last year [1] - Traffic is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 7.2% last year, as consumers seek value [3] Digital Sales and Pricing Impact - Digital sales growth is projected to slow to 5%, a significant drop from 28.3% last year [3] - Gas prices have declined by high single digits in March, contributing to a headwind of approximately 80 basis points [2] - Strength in the U.S. dollar may add an additional headwind of around 170 basis points [3] Product Categories - Non-food sales are expected to outperform, particularly in discretionary categories like gift cards [4] - Food & Sundries and Fresh Foods sales are anticipated to remain solid due to favorable at-home consumption and a value-focused assortment [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Costco Wholesale declined by 2.73% to $942.91 at the time of publication [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new tariffs announced by the US president are expected to create significant challenges for the hardlines retail sector, complicating supply chains, pricing strategies, and consumer demand [1][2]. Tariff Impact - The tariffs, effective in early April, impose higher import duties on a range of products from key trading partners, including Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and India [2]. - Unlike previous tariffs that primarily affected Chinese imports, the broader scope of the current policy limits retailers' options for production and sourcing diversification [3]. Retailer Adjustments - Retailers will likely need to adjust product specifications and pass costs onto consumers through price increases, particularly those with significant exposure to low-cost imports, such as Five Below and Dollar Tree [4]. - Larger retailers like Walmart and Costco, along with those with stronger pricing power, are expected to manage the impact better due to their negotiating leverage and supply chain efficiencies [5]. Price Changes and Consumer Demand - Price changes are anticipated to become visible within one to three months, influenced by consumer demand elasticity [6]. - Essential goods are expected to maintain steadier demand, while discretionary items may experience a slowdown [6][7]. Earnings Outlook - Retailers will need to employ various strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, with larger-scale retailers having greater leverage in negotiations [8]. - Retailers with exposure to consumable products, particularly grocers, are expected to have a more resilient earnings outlook due to domestic sourcing [9]. Long-term Implications - The persistence of tariffs may drive further consolidation in the retail sector [11].

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector is facing economic challenges due to rising trade uncertainties and tariffs, but select blue-chip retailers possess the financial strength and adaptability to navigate these conditions effectively [1][2]. Industry Overview - Rising tariffs are increasing costs for retailers, particularly those with global supply chains, which can squeeze margins and lead to consumer price hikes [2]. - Established retail companies can adjust sourcing strategies and negotiate supplier contracts to offset rising costs, allowing them to manage economic uncertainties better than smaller competitors [2]. Blue-Chip Retailers - Market experts favor blue-chip stocks like Walmart Inc. (WMT), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), and The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) for long-term stability and growth due to their financial resilience and history of delivering robust returns [3][5]. - Blue-chip stocks are less vulnerable to market fluctuations and provide steady dividend payouts, making them attractive for both experienced and novice investors [4]. Company Highlights Walmart - Walmart's market capitalization is $719.6 billion, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.4% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Walmart's current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 3.4% and 4.8%, respectively, from the previous year [9]. - Walmart pays a quarterly dividend of about 23.5 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 33 and a five-year dividend growth rate of 2.9% [9]. Costco - Costco has a market capitalization of $428.2 billion, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.8% [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current financial-year sales and EPS implies growth of 7.7% and 11.4%, respectively, from the previous year [10]. - Costco pays a quarterly dividend of $1.16 per share, with a payout ratio of 28 and a five-year dividend growth rate of 13.2% [10]. Home Depot - Home Depot's market capitalization is $368.7 billion, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6% [13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Home Depot's current financial-year sales calls for growth of 2.7% from the previous year [13]. - Home Depot pays a quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share, with a payout ratio of 59 and a five-year dividend growth rate of 11.2% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of aggressive tariffs by President Donald Trump has led to a significant decline in stock markets, with major indexes facing their worst daily losses in years [1]. Market Impact - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.8%, or 1,190 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 3.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 4.4%, marking the worst day for all three indexes since September 2022 [2]. - The "magnificent seven" tech companies experienced substantial losses, with Apple down 8%, Alphabet down 3%, Amazon down 6%, Meta down 7%, Microsoft down 2%, Nvidia down 6%, and Tesla down 4% [2]. Sector Performance - Retail stocks also suffered, with Walmart, Costco, and Home Depot losing 2% or more, while Lululemon and Nike saw declines close to 10% due to their manufacturing reliance on China and Vietnam, which are heavily targeted by the new tariffs [3]. - Financial services companies faced declines as well, with American Express down 7%, JPMorgan Chase down 5%, and Robinhood down 8% [3]. Bond Market Reaction - U.S. government bonds rallied as investors sought safer assets, leading to a decline in yields for the benchmark 10-year Treasury by more than 15 basis points to just above 4%, the lowest level since before the election [4]. Specific Company Analysis - Apple is particularly affected, facing an estimated $39.5 billion in tariff costs, which could result in a 32% hit to earnings. Analysts speculate that a carveout for Apple may be necessary due to its significant non-U.S. manufacturing [5]. - The total market value loss for the "magnificent seven" was approximately $784 billion, with Apple's loss alone accounting for $263 billion [6]. Strategic Outlook - Wall Street strategists have raised concerns about the likelihood of a bear market, with UBS setting a target of 5,300 for the S&P, indicating a potential further decline of 4% from premarket levels. Bank of America's top equity strategist noted the absence of a clear tariff playbook [7].

作者： 贺晓青，科尔尼全球合伙人，大中华区总裁 王娅欣，科尔尼董事 李古岳，科尔尼项目经理 全文首发于《中欧商业评论》 2025 年 4 月 2 日 本文是 " 科尔尼深度 ——2024 中国消费市场大洗牌：五大趋势洞察新拐点 " 系列文章的渠道话题延伸。 如果说以卖场为代表的现代渠道是中国零售渠道变革的第一波浪潮，百花齐放的线上化是第二波浪潮，那 么在线上获客成本上升的当下，我们看到了 第三波渠道变革的趋势。无论是电商还是线下渠道，新零售业 态的发展都吸引了市场的目光。 值得注意的是，线下实体渠道虽然在过去被电商遮掩了光芒，但是随着会员店、折扣店等新兴渠道的兴 起， 线下渠道这个最贴近消费者、最具温度的渠道正在重新回到市场的聚光灯下 —— 未来或成为渠道组合 中的独特机会点。 前言 随着中国宏观经济环境变化，消费者心态也在悄然变化，由从前的" 任性消费 "向" 理性消费 "回归。 消费者并非"断舍离"式的节衣缩食，而是不再被漫天的营销噱头和品牌溢价所裹挟。 反观供应端，零售业在经历过疫情前围绕"场"和"货"的迭代与试错后，围绕" 人 "的消费趋势也在变化 ——即重构"货场"价值链，以更有的放矢地搭配满足消费 ...