美国物价飙涨，经济风雨飘摇：一场关税引发的风暴 美国经济正经历一场由关税引发的价格风暴。从日常用品到奢侈品，从小型企业到大型跨国公司，无一幸免于这场席卷全美的涨价潮。 这并非简单的价格 波动，而是关税政策引发的蝴蝶效应，正将美国经济推向悬崖边缘。 美联储主席鲍威尔紧急预警，关税冲击比预想更猛烈，企业难以承受成本压力，消费者钱包即将被榨干。他坦言，关税政策让美联储陷入"双重使命冲突"： 稳物价和保就业的目标正在相互撕扯。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯警告，关税冲击才刚刚开始，并预测关税将在未来12个月内推高通胀约1个百分点。 富 国银行经济学家萨拉·豪斯指出，未来三到六个月是关键时刻，企业库存缓冲消耗殆尽后，新关税成本将完全转嫁给消费者。 前纽约联储主席杜德利发出滞 胀预警，分析当前经济面临增长疲软、通胀高企的组合，而美联储的利率工具对此束手无策。 美联储内部也出现分歧，部分理事主张维持利率不变以遏制 通胀，另一些则认为当前利率过于限制性。 特朗普持续施压降息，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。 芝加哥期货交易所数据显示，咖啡豆期货价格三个月涨 45%，创2024年以来新高，贸易商仓库里的巴西生豆存货仅够维持两周。 结 ...

Group 1 - The endorsement marketing market is experiencing a structural adjustment and emotional marketing, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in the number of endorsers from January to May 2025 [1][18] - The beauty and skincare industry leads with a 35% increase in the number of endorsers, while the commercial/service industry sees a 38.5% growth, marking it as the fastest-growing sector [1][18] - Top entertainers like Xiao Zhan, Bai Lu, and Di Li Re Ba maintain high commercial value due to popular works, while emerging actors like Zhai Xiao Wen see significant value increases from trending series [1][11] Group 2 - The proportion of mid and lower-tier endorsers has increased by 8 percentage points, with B and C category stars primarily being film and television actors, making up 58% of endorsements [2][34] - Brands are increasingly building "endorser matrices," with platforms like Taobao and Tmall adding over 10 endorsers, and short drama actors gaining traction through flexible short-term collaborations [2][38] - Emotional marketing is driving brands to focus on precise emotional engagement, with campaigns like Atour Planet's collaboration with Niao Niao resonating with "low-energy" consumers [2][18] Group 3 - The endorsement market continues to recover, with a 5.4% increase in the number of endorsers and a 1.4% increase in brand endorsements from January to May 2025 [18] - The entertainment sector, particularly film actors, musicians, and idol artists, sees the highest growth in new endorsements and brand collaborations [19][34] - The number of endorsements for top sports stars has doubled, despite a 31% decline in overall endorsements in non-Olympic years, indicating a concentration of value among leading athletes [25][26] Group 4 - The trend of brands pursuing popular stars during the airing of their works has led to a noticeable increase in new business collaborations [20] - The endorsement landscape is shifting towards short-term collaborations with mid-tier stars, as brands focus on cost efficiency [24][34] - The rise of short drama actors as a new force in endorsements is evident, with over 15 brands collaborating with them in early 2025 [38][39]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up 0.03% and Nasdaq futures down 0.02% [1] - European indices also experienced slight gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.29%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.16%, and France's CAC40 up 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.22% to $62.99 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.31% to $65.06 per barrel [3][4] Regulatory Changes - Michelle Bowman was confirmed as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, indicating a shift towards more lenient regulations under the Trump administration [5] - Bowman has advocated for tailored regulations and has been critical of the complexity of current regulatory frameworks [5] Industry Impact of Tariffs - The new 50% tariff on aluminum imports has raised concerns among industry executives about potential declines in consumer demand [6] - Derek Prichett from Novelis highlighted that the tariff could negatively impact demand, particularly affecting their operations in Canada and the US [6] Economic Outlook - Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed stated that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe the impact of tariffs on the economy before making interest rate decisions [7] - He noted that uncertainty from tariffs is a significant risk to business investment and could lead to job cuts [7] Emerging Markets - Bank of America Securities predicts double-digit returns for emerging market assets this year, driven by expectations of a declining dollar [8] - The firm favors Eastern European currencies and stocks, with Brazil being a top pick in fixed income due to high interest rates [8] Company Earnings - Momo Inc. reported a 1.5% year-over-year decline in Q1 net revenue, with a drop in paid users to 4.2 million [9] - Waterdrop Inc. achieved a 7% increase in Q1 revenue, marking its 13th consecutive quarter of profitability [10] - Procter & Gamble plans to cut 15% of its office workforce, amounting to approximately 7,000 positions, to enhance productivity [11] - Alphabet Inc. intends to expand its engineering workforce despite industry-wide layoffs, emphasizing the importance of talent in AI [12] Legal Developments - Apple Inc. faced a setback as a US appeals court denied its request to pause a ruling requiring changes to its App Store practices [13]

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (PG) plans to cut up to 7,000 office jobs over the next two years to enhance productivity and operational efficiency, representing approximately 15% of its non-manufacturing workforce [1] Group 1: Job Cuts and Operational Changes - The company has announced the job cuts without specifying the locations of the layoffs [1] - Procter & Gamble is also reviewing its brand portfolio and may announce divestiture plans in the coming months [1] Group 2: Pricing Strategy and Market Conditions - The company intends to implement price increases starting in the next fiscal year, which begins in July [2] - CEO Jon Moeller indicated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have an "inflationary effect" on the company's operations [2] - Procter & Gamble is exploring adjustments to supply sources or minor changes to certain formulas to mitigate tariff exposure before officially raising prices [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecasts - In the recent earnings report, Procter & Gamble unexpectedly lowered its performance outlook due to rising tariff costs and deteriorating consumer trends, estimating additional costs between $1 billion and $1.5 billion [1] - The company now expects organic sales growth of about 2% for the fiscal year ending June 2025, down from a previous forecast of 3% to 5% [2]