Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the cost of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Costs - According to Deutsche Bank, the burden of tariff costs is mainly on American importers rather than consumers, as inflation in the US remains controlled [1] - The expectation is that if foreign entities were to bear the tariff costs, sales prices would decrease, but this trend has not been observed except in a few cases [1] Impact on the US Dollar - The analysis suggests that since the tariff costs are predominantly shouldered by the US, this situation represents an additional negative factor for the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a shift in investor focus from the US to Europe due to increasing uncertainty in US trade policies and the desire for a more stable investment environment [1] - European infrastructure and defense spending plans are attracting capital inflows, providing policy continuity and predictability, contrasting with the erratic nature of US policies under Trump [1] - Data from LSEG indicates that European equity funds have seen inflows exceeding $100 billion this year, three times the amount from the same period last year, while US equity funds have experienced outflows of nearly $87 billion [1] Group 2 - Germany, as the largest economy in the EU, has seen foreign direct investment double to €46 billion in the first four months of 2025, marking a new high since 2022 [2] - There are warnings from investors that Europe must act quickly to maintain this momentum, with KfW's head emphasizing the need for Europe to view current sentiment as both a warning and an incentive [2] - Deutsche Bank's CEO confirmed strong investor interest in Europe and Germany but stressed the necessity for long-term stable conditions to sustain this interest [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

随着美国总统特朗普的关税政策推进，一个关键问题浮现：究竟是谁在这些关税买单？ 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行最新研报显示，特朗普政府征收的关税主要由美国人承担，而非海外出口商。该行分析了第二季度美国制造业商品进口价 格变化后发现，尽管关税收入今年已超过1000亿美元，但外国出口商并未通过大幅降价来吸收关税成本。 分析师George Saravelos指出，如果外国出口商承担关税成本，理论上市场应该看到进口商品价格大幅下降。但分析结果表明，美国的贸易伙伴中，除加 拿大出现温和价格下调、英国出现较小幅度下调外，其他地区出口商支付的关税费用微乎其微。最令人意外的是，中国出口商基本未通过降价来抵消关税 影响。 如果是外国人在支付关税，我们预期会看到进口商品价格大幅下降，因为他们将其成本吸收进了自身的利润空间。确实，我们看到了一些温和 的价格下降，在加拿大最为明显，英国次之。但最令人惊讶的是，除此之外，其他地方的出口商似乎支付得极少。 鉴于美国消费者价格指数涨幅迄今保持克制，德银得出结论：美国进口商主要通过压缩自身利润率来吸收关税成本。这一现状不仅为美国贸易伙伴在8月1 日新期限前提供了更多谈判筹码，也预示着未来美国消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential removal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump could significantly impact the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 30-year yield, by over 50 basis points, while the 10-year yield may also begin to rise [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Recent discussions around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the possibility of leadership changes have heightened market uncertainty, which may result in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds trading at a discount [2][3]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly, from a projected 75 basis points to less than 50 basis points, due to resilient macroeconomic data and inflationary pressures from tariff policies [2][11]. - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its steepest level since 2021, indicating that the market is pricing in the risk of Powell's potential dismissal [3][8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Allegations against Powell, including claims of perjury related to the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, have been made by Republican lawmakers, which could further complicate the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - The Trump administration's push for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased inflation expectations and market risk premiums, thereby affecting long-term Treasury yields [8][11]. - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. government's borrowing needs and budget deficits are reflected in the elevated term premium for 10-year Treasury bonds, which is at its highest level since 2014 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were to be removed, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could jump by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential removal of Jerome Powell could lead to significant market reactions, particularly in the bond market [1]

Investment & Growth Initiatives - Made in Germany initiative has secured pledges of over €600 billion in investments, involving 61 companies, with expectations of further commitments [1][4][5] - The initiative aims to stimulate economic growth and competitiveness in Germany and Europe, emphasizing the need for private sector investment alongside government efforts [2][3] - Investments are targeted towards innovation, particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with unique technologies, and structural changes to attract capital [6][7] - Siemens is investing in manufacturing innovation, including the industrial metaverse, and digitalized city living projects, leveraging angel investors' capital [8][9] Technological Advancement & Future Economy - Germany aims to become a technology-led country, focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) for industrial processes and sustainability technologies [12][13] - The German economy is evolving from traditional heavy industry to one driven by technology, AI, and sustainability, with potential for defense investments to spur new industries [10][14][15] - Leveraging data from industrialized sectors to develop industrial foundation models is crucial, requiring skilled personnel to utilize these technologies [17][18][19] Regulatory & Economic Environment - Addressing regulation and bureaucracy speed is critical for encouraging investment, requiring influence on European policies and stronger government leadership in Germany [25] - Key concerns include energy prices and labor market flexibility, with a need to focus on pension plans to create a domestic capital market and attract foreign investment [26][27][28] - Diversification of production, supply chains, and markets is essential, with a focus on strengthening the European home market of 450 million consumers [30][32] - The potential for higher tariffs from the United States necessitates free trade agreements and diversification into regions like ASEAN, the Middle East, and South America [34][36][37] European Financial Landscape - Clients are seeking a European alternative to US banks amid geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting Deutsche Bank's role as a global European player with a presence in over 60 countries [42][43] - There's a notable reallocation of funds into Europe, with investors expressing interest in Germany and Europe, contingent on further reforms beyond fiscal debt [46][47] - Europe aims to learn from the United States in capital markets and innovation while preserving its values, requiring structural reforms at both German and European levels [48][49]

"Germany can be and must be a technology-led country."Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing tells @ocrook that with investment, Germany can be a leader in technology, artificial intelligence, and sustainability https://t.co/Tgi5a8l54E https://t.co/zTMDSBkijQ ...

欧洲央行即将在7月会议上暂停降息步伐，这一决定已被充分预期，但市场真正关注的焦点转向这将是 短暂停顿还是更为持久的政策转变。 德意志银行在7月18日的研报中指出，欧央行行长拉加德此前表示政策立场处于"良好位置"，为本次暂 停奠定了基调。欧洲央行将于周四（7月24日）公布利率决议，拉加德半个小时后召开记者会。 该行指出，自6月以来，围绕欧央行终端利率的风险已经扩大。是否进一步降息以及何时降息，将取决 于预期的通胀下行是否会加深和延长。这主要受两个关键问题影响：美国贸易政策和欧洲财政宽松的净 影响对通胀是正面还是负面，以及欧元汇率升值是否具有通缩效应。 德意志银行分析师还认为，欧央行在7月会议上没有改变其明确或隐含政策信号的动机，保持所有选项 开放，维持当前零指引、逐次会议、依赖数据的政策方式，符合欧央行新的"灵活"货币政策策略。 这一做法让央行能够根据经济数据变化灵活调整政策立场，避免过早锁定未来政策路径。在当前经济环 境下，这种策略为央行提供了更大的政策空间。 通胀前景面临多重不确定因素 德意志银行认为表示，美国关税、欧洲财政政策以及欧元汇率等因素的相互作用将决定通胀偏离目标的 程度和持续时间，进而影响欧央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Capital flows are a vote of confidence in Hong Kong's institutional advantages and market potential, as well as a reinterpretation of the "China growth story" [1][9]. Group 1: Business Expansion in Hong Kong - Over the past two and a half years, 630 companies from mainland China have established or expanded their businesses in Hong Kong, compared to 113 from the US, 89 from the UK, 68 from Singapore, and 38 from Canada [3][15]. - The Deutsche Bank Group emphasizes Hong Kong's critical role as a business hub in North Asia, highlighting its market position [4][21]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reported that by the end of 2024, the total assets under management in Hong Kong's asset and wealth management sector will reach HKD 35.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [8]. Group 2: Wealth Management Trends - The net inflow of funds into asset management and fund advisory services surged by 571% year-on-year to HKD 321 billion, indicating a strong demand for wealth management services [8]. - The private banking and wealth management sector saw a 15% growth in assets under management, reaching HKD 10.4 trillion [8]. - The Hong Kong government plans to optimize tax incentives for funds and family offices, with proposals expected to be submitted for legislative review by 2026 [9][29]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Family Offices - The influx of foreign investment has made Hong Kong a hotbed for investment opportunities, with over 1,300 overseas and mainland companies assisted in establishing or expanding their businesses in Hong Kong from January 2023 to mid-2025 [14]. - Family offices from the Middle East are increasingly interested in setting up branches in Hong Kong, attracted by the region's investment opportunities [16]. - The number of family offices in Hong Kong is on the rise, with over 190 family offices assisted in establishing or expanding their operations since the inception of the Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency's family office team [16]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages of Hong Kong - Hong Kong's unique geographical position, independent judicial system, open financial market, and international talent pool are highlighted as key advantages in attracting high-net-worth individuals [3][24]. - Compared to other financial centers like Singapore and Dubai, Hong Kong offers greater flexibility for family offices in asset allocation, allowing for global asset configuration without the need to relocate all assets [26]. - The city is positioned to become the largest cross-border asset and wealth management center globally within the next two to three years, supported by a stable political environment and a mature financial system [28][29].