Core Viewpoint - H World Group-S (01179) shares have increased by over 5%, currently trading at 34.46 HKD with a transaction volume of 38.32 million HKD, following the announcement of an upcoming board meeting to review financial performance [1] Company Summary - H World Group-S will hold a board meeting on November 17, 2025, to review and approve the unaudited financial results for the three months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that the decline in RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) for the hotel industry has narrowed, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in September [1] - The positive momentum observed in September is expected to continue into October and potentially sustain through the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that H World Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, with a positive RevPAR trend and operational leverage benefits [1] - The firm has raised its RevPAR forecasts for H World Group for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2%, and expects RevPAR to turn positive in the fourth quarter [1] Industry Summary - The hotel industry's RevPAR decline has shown signs of improvement, with September's performance exceeding expectations, indicating a potential recovery trend [1] - The positive performance in September is expected to carry over into October and the fourth quarter, suggesting a favorable outlook for the industry [1]

Market Overview - The US Senate made significant progress on funding issues, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq Composite up 2.27% [1] - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with heavyweight AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir leading the gains [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Nvidia rising 5.79%, adding $265 billion (approximately 1.89 trillion RMB) to its market capitalization [3] - Other notable performers included AMD up over 4%, Google and Tesla up over 3%, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Netflix up over 1% [3] Earnings Reports - CoreWeave reported Q3 revenue of $1.36 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.29 billion, with a net loss of $110.1 million, better than the anticipated loss of $299.6 million [5] - Occidental Petroleum's Q3 revenue was $6.717 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $6.679 billion [5] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.25%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Xpeng Motors up over 16% and Baidu up over 5% [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the potential economic impact of maintaining high interest rates for too long, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - Morgan Stanley and other Wall Street firms maintain a bullish outlook on US stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth as a driving factor for further market increases in 2026 [9] AI Sector Outlook - Analysts indicate that the "AI fundamental narrative" supporting the bull market remains intact, suggesting significant buying opportunities during market pullbacks [11] - UBS forecasts that the S&P 500 could reach a record 7,500 points by the end of 2026, reflecting an over 11% increase from current levels, driven largely by technology companies [10]

Group 1 - H World Group (HTHT) has shown strong year-to-date performance, returning 24.3%, significantly outperforming the average gain of 1.8% in the Consumer Discretionary sector [4] - The Zacks Rank for H World Group is 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions [3] - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for HTHT's full-year earnings has increased by 9%, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] Group 2 - H World Group is part of the Hotels and Motels industry, which has an average loss of 8.6% this year, highlighting HTHT's superior performance within its industry [6] - The Hotels and Motels industry is ranked 185 in the Zacks Industry Rank, indicating a relatively low position compared to other sectors [6] - In contrast, Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG), another outperforming stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, has returned 34.9% this year and belongs to the Leisure and Recreation Products industry, which is ranked 76 [5][6]

Core Insights - The core theme of the article revolves around Huazhu's 20-year journey in the hotel industry, emphasizing the need for supply-side reform as the biggest opportunity for the Chinese hotel sector [2][8][21] Company Overview - Huazhu has evolved over two decades, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term trends, and is now positioned to lead the industry towards supply-side reform [5][18] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio from a single brand, HanTing, to over thirty brands, serving more than 2 billion guests and driving nearly 300 billion yuan in industry investment [15][21] Industry Context - The global hotel industry is undergoing significant changes, with international capital acquiring quality hotel assets and local markets facing saturation and intense competition [6][8] - In China, only 25% of hotels are large-scale (40 rooms or more), compared to 95% in the U.S., indicating a structural imbalance in the hotel supply [8] Supply-Side Reform - The current state of the hotel industry in China is characterized by high-end luxury hotels and low-end budget inns struggling to achieve profitability, highlighting the urgent need for supply-side reform [8][9] - The concept of "involution" is discussed, where competition leads to stagnation without progress, but is viewed as a necessary phase for deeper supply-side reform [9] Market Opportunities - Huazhu's strategy includes viewing China as a world unto itself, recognizing the diverse consumer ecosystem and the potential for growth across various market segments [11][13] - The company identifies five trends reshaping the hotel industry: a shift from micro to medium-sized rooms, from standalone to chain hotels, from star ratings to brand focus, from major cities to county-level markets, and from real estate to investment returns [13] Future Vision - Huazhu aims to become a world-class enterprise, aspiring to have its brands rank among the top globally, enhance service quality, and redefine travel experiences [18][19] - The company's mission has evolved from providing a "good life" to facilitating a "good journey," reflecting a deeper commitment to enhancing customer experiences [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that H World Group (华住) has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with a 5.56% rise in Hong Kong stocks and a 2.6% pre-market increase in US stocks, driven by positive industry trends [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent research report highlights that the decline in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) for the hotel industry has narrowed in Q3, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly Q4 [1] - The report anticipates that H World Group and Atour's Q3 performance will exceed expectations, with Atour's retail business showing potential surprises and H World expected to demonstrate positive RevPAR trends and operational leverage [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for H World Group's US stock from $43.5 to $47, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - As of November 7, the closing price for H World Group was $41.070, with a trading volume of 1.1874 million shares and a total market capitalization of approximately $12.636 billion [1] - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $41.300 and a low of $28.564, indicating significant price movement within the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The eighth China International Import Expo serves as a significant platform for global enterprises, with Huazhu Group, Bank of China, and China UnionPay forming a strategic partnership to create a new consumption service ecosystem through cross-industry integration [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Huazhu Group, Bank of China, and China UnionPay have entered into a strategic cooperation aimed at building a "financial + accommodation + lifestyle" ecosystem, enhancing consumer experience and value [1][2]. - The partnership will focus on creating a joint membership system and integrating member benefits to provide more precise and exclusive services to corporate clients and consumers [2]. Group 2: Consumer Experience Enhancement - The collaboration aims to improve consumer experience by introducing government and UnionPay consumption vouchers, offering payment and accommodation discounts, and exploring innovative "ticket root economy" models [4]. - Users will benefit from multiple discounts such as point redemption, payment reductions, and exclusive member privileges, while also accessing integrated services for cross-border travel through Bank of China's global financial network [4]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Vision - The partnership aligns with China's strategic goals of accelerating the development of a tourism powerhouse and deepening the integration of cultural tourism and consumption [1]. - Huazhu Group, celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2025, has expanded to over 12,000 hotels across 19 countries, serving more than 2 billion guests, and aims to enhance the global presence of "Chinese service" [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR for the third quarter, driven by better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group's stock rose nearly 6%, closing at 33.1 HKD with a trading volume of 64.37 million HKD [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Huazhu Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, showcasing a positive RevPAR trend and operational leverage benefits [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - According to Guosen Securities, the decline in RevPAR for the hotel industry in the third quarter has continued to narrow on a quarter-on-quarter basis, indicating a positive shift in the industry cycle and individual company operational dynamics [1] - The RevPAR stabilized in September and continued to show resilience post-National Day, primarily driven by business travel [1] - The management of Shouqi Group expects the decline in RevPAR for Q4 to be in the range of 0-3% [1] - Looking ahead, the industry supply growth is expected to become more rational, and if policies stimulate business travel demand alongside flexible arrangements for leisure travel, valuations may recover ahead of the industry cycle turning point [1]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR for the third quarter, driven by better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group's stock price increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 33.1, with a trading volume of HKD 64.37 million [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Huazhu Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, showcasing a positive trend in RevPAR and operational leverage benefits [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The hotel industry's RevPAR decline has been narrowing quarter-on-quarter, with a stable trend observed in September and continuing into the National Day holiday period [1] - Guosen Securities highlights that the RevPAR is expected to decline between 0-3% in Q4, with a gradual rationalization of supply growth anticipated next year [1] - The potential stabilization of business travel demand, combined with flexible arrangements for leisure travel during holidays, may lead to an early recovery in valuations ahead of the industry cycle turning point [1]

Core Insights - The hotel industry in China, backed by a population of 1.4 billion, is seen as a promising investment opportunity despite current market challenges, including oversupply and increased competition [2][3] - The focus has shifted from "whether to invest" to "how to invest," emphasizing the need for systematic methodologies and clear transformation paths in hotel models [2][5] - The supply-side reform in China presents a significant opportunity for the hotel industry, with potential for brand standardization and operational efficiency improvements [5][6] Market Demand and Segmentation - The core logic of hotel investment is supported by a robust market demand driven by the 1.4 billion population, leading to increased travel and consumption [3][4] - The market can be segmented into three dimensions: geographical (first-tier, second-tier, and county-level markets), income (luxury, middle-class, and budget consumers), and age demographics (youth, middle-aged, and seniors) [3][4] Supply-Side Reform Opportunities - Supply-side reform is viewed as a critical driver for investment opportunities, with significant room for improvement in hotel scale and chain rates compared to the U.S. [5][6] - The potential for transforming underperforming hotels into branded, standardized operations is substantial, particularly in lower-tier cities [5][6] - Current economic conditions provide a "cost dividend," reducing property rental and construction costs, thus facilitating market entry for investors [6] Investment Criteria: Two "Three Goods" - Successful hotel investment hinges on two sets of "three goods": good location, good rent, and good product, where "good product" encompasses brand, property, and quality [7][8] - A strong brand is identified as a key variable for enhancing asset value, with emphasis on brand effect, membership systems, and technological capabilities [8][10] Competitive Landscape and Brand Strategy - The hotel market is characterized by increasing brand proliferation and homogenization, necessitating distinct positioning and unique value propositions for brands to stand out [10][11] - Leading brands within the industry, such as Huazhu, have demonstrated resilience and rapid recovery capabilities, supported by robust membership systems and technological advancements [10][11] - The head brand's competitive advantages have been validated, with Huazhu ranking fourth globally and its HanTing brand recognized as the largest single hotel brand worldwide [10][11]

Core Insights - The core message of the article revolves around Huazhu Group's 20th anniversary conference, highlighting its evolution and future strategies in the hotel industry, emphasizing supply-side reform and brand leadership as key growth drivers [3][4][5]. Company Development - Huazhu Group started in 2005 with the launch of Hanting and has since expanded to over 30 brands, reflecting the transformation of China's hotel industry from rapid growth to refined operations [4][5]. - The company has hosted over 2 billion guests and driven nearly 300 billion yuan in industry investments, ranking fifth among the fastest-growing traditional consumer enterprises globally from 2010 to 2024 [6]. Strategic Focus - The founder, Ji Qi, identified the current and future opportunities in China's hotel industry as lying in supply-side reform, particularly in high-end luxury and budget hotel segments [5][9]. - Huazhu's future strategy includes three core pillars: "Deepening China" to focus on multi-tier market development, "Brand Leadership" to enhance brand value through membership and technology, and "Lean Growth" to shift from scale expansion to quality improvement [9][13]. Market Insights - The hotel industry faces structural challenges, with a national average vacancy rate of 38.2% as of Q1 2025, indicating a significant oversupply issue [11][12]. - Ji Qi emphasized that the supply-side reform in the hotel industry is just beginning, with a focus on aligning supply with demand to enhance profitability [12][13]. Future Vision - Huazhu aims to redefine its market approach by categorizing it into three segments based on geography, income structure, and age demographics, recognizing the diverse needs of the Chinese market [16][18]. - The company plans to strengthen its brand influence and aims to become a globally recognized hotel brand, launching a new brand "All Seasons Grand View" that focuses on customer experience and cultural elements [19][20].