IBM 商业价值研究院 | 研究简报 AI 时代的 银行业 以 AI 驭险，更须为 AI 设防 ":"11 序言 风险、合规与验证部门的负责人深知，AI 能够变革业务流程，创造竞争优势，但唯有先强 化现有运营体系，筑牢运营根基，才能实现 AI 在企业范围内的规模化应用｡ 银行业和金融市场正处于技术革新浪潮驱动的关键拐点。全球贸易摩擦升 级，宏观经济风云变幻，金融机构在迷雾中亟需重塑商业与科技战略。 生成式 AI 与自主智能体 AI 双轮驱动，人工智能（AI）正高速进化。它们犹 如战略杠杆，既能撬动个性化客户体验的竞争优势，又能提升运营效率。 推动 AI 进行创新时，既要锐意突破，又需确保符合严格的监管要求。若想 在企业范围内全面释放 AI 潜力，首先必须反思与优化现有的风险与合规体 系。在这个 AI 融入金融血脉的时代，金融服务行业不仅需要升级技术验证 体系，更需要重塑人才能力图谱，让风险管理成为每位银行从业者的肌肉 记忆。 本报告深入探讨了 AI 如何重塑金融业风控核心用例，包括客户身份识别 （KYC）、反洗钱（AML）与欺诈检测。其不仅为日益激烈的 AI 模型验证 讨论提供新视角，更精准回应了市场对快速部 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Jentech with a Buy rating and sets a target price of TWD3,186. It also reiterates Buy ratings for AVC and Auras with target prices of TWD1,700 and TWD1,160 respectively [15][16][44]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI performance upgrades is expected to revolutionize the liquid cooling industry, particularly with the introduction of microchannel lid (MCL) technology and potential new thermal interface materials (TIM) from late 2026 to 2028 [3][6]. - The thermal design power (TDP) of mainstream AI chips is projected to increase to approximately 2,000W by mid-2026, with expectations that chips will exceed 3,000W by 2027 [6][19]. - MCL is anticipated to be the most practical solution for cooling chips with TDPs over 3,000W, as it integrates a heat spreader with a cold plate to minimize thermal resistance [7][27]. - Current thermal component makers are expected to experience significant growth opportunities in the next two to three years, driven by the increasing adoption of liquid cooling solutions across various AI systems [14][39]. Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is evolving rapidly, with strong total addressable market (TAM) growth expected to benefit both existing and new players [6][19]. - The transition from air cooling to liquid cooling is becoming mainstream, particularly for AI GPUs, with full liquid cooling solutions anticipated to dominate by 2025 [6][19]. Microchannel Lid (MCL) Technology - MCL is viewed as a critical advancement for next-gen AI server architecture, offering compatibility with existing single-phase liquid cooling systems and a lower Z-height for higher-density designs [7][27]. - The adoption of MCL may face challenges, including design and manufacturing complexities, but its potential for earlier adoption compared to two-phase cooling solutions is noted [8][28]. Thermal Interface Materials (TIM) - The report discusses the potential shift to indium metal TIMs for high-performance chips, particularly as TDP levels rise and current graphite film TIMs face limitations [10][38]. - Optimized lids with highly thermal-conductive TIMs are expected to remain favored solutions for upcoming AI chips, with ongoing research into new materials like silicon carbide (SiC) [9][37]. Company Coverage - Jentech is positioned as a leading beneficiary of MCL technology due to its strong relationships with foundries and experience in heat spreader manufacturing [16][42]. - AVC and Auras are also highlighted for their potential growth as liquid cooling solutions become more prevalent in AI systems, with both companies maintaining Buy ratings [15][44].

Core Insights - IBM is set to report Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, with sales and earnings estimates at $16.09 billion and $2.43 per share respectively [1][7] - Earnings estimates for IBM have improved to $11.13 for 2025 but declined to $11.95 for 2026 over the past 60 days [1] - The company has a positive earnings surprise history, averaging 6.29% over the last four quarters [2][3] Earnings Performance - IBM achieved a 6.06% earnings surprise in the last reported quarter [2] - The company has an Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) of +2.20% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4] Growth Drivers - IBM's innovation strategy includes new AI, hybrid cloud, and quantum initiatives, which are expected to support growth [7] - The launch of IBM Power11 servers offers significant performance improvements, enhancing hybrid deployment capabilities [8] - Neudesic's renewed partnership with Microsoft for Cloud Security Specialization strengthens IBM's security solutions in hybrid environments [9] - Collaboration with AMD aims to develop scalable, open-source platforms for quantum computing [10] Market Position - IBM's Software segment is projected to generate revenues of $7.52 billion, while the Consulting segment is expected to generate $5.17 billion [11] - The company has gained 19.9% over the past year, trailing behind industry peers like Oracle and Microsoft [12] Valuation Metrics - IBM's shares are trading at a forward P/E ratio of 23.85, slightly above the industry average of 23.81 [13] Strategic Initiatives - IBM is focusing on AI capabilities through the watsonx platform, which is gaining traction in the market [16] - Strategic collaborations with industry leaders enhance prospects in cloud infrastructure and quantum computing [17] - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in hybrid cloud and automation, which are expected to drive growth in the Software segment [19]

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM ) is a stock I covered last March, issuing a buy rating on the name at the time. My thesis, which I laid out for investors, was that despite an elevated valuationProfessional equity portfolio manager for a boutique buy-side asset manager.My focus is on finding high-quality companies, applying a disciplined approach to valuation and identifying underappreciated opportunities. My goal is to identify opportunities in cash-rich companies with strong balance sheets and ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment thesis on International Business Machines (IBM), highlighting a buy rating issued in March due to its elevated valuation and potential for growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Thesis - The investment thesis focuses on identifying high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and shareholder-friendly policies [1]. - The approach combines quantitative and qualitative measures to uncover underappreciated opportunities in stocks [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has 10 years of experience in investment banking, specializing in industry and company research [1]. - The analyst employs a long-only investment strategy with a long-term focus [1].

Core Insights - IBM has announced the launch of three new AI agents on the Oracle Fusion Applications AI Agent Marketplace aimed at enhancing operational efficiency for Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications customers [1][4] - The new agents are built using Oracle AI Agent Studio and are designed to automate processes and workflows within Oracle Fusion Applications [1][5] - IBM plans to introduce additional agents for HR and supply chain, expanding its offerings in the Oracle ecosystem [1][2] Summary by Categories New AI Agents - The three new AI agents include: - Intercompany Agent: Automates the review of intercompany agreements [5] - Smart Sales Order Entry Agent: Streamlines the sales-order creation process by generating relevant data for the order-to-cash process [5] - Requisition to Contract Agent: Manages the workflow of converting purchase requisitions to contract purchase orders [5] Technology and Development - The agents are developed on IBM watsonx Orchestrate, an enterprise-grade AI solution that supports the deployment and governance of AI agents [2] - Watsonx Orchestrate operates on Red Hat OpenShift AI, providing a multi-agent approach that integrates with Oracle's AI offerings [2] Strategic Partnership - The collaboration between IBM and Oracle aims to leverage their combined expertise in enterprise AI and business transformation to drive innovation and competitive advantage for clients [1][4] - Oracle plans to make the IBM Granite 4.0 family of AI models available through its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Data Science [2]

Core Insights - IBM is expanding its investments and collaborations in the UAE and the Middle East, focusing on artificial intelligence as a key driver for productivity, competitiveness, and high-quality economic growth [1] - The company showcased innovations in generative artificial intelligence and AI governance at GITEX GLOBAL 2025, aligning with the UAE's national strategy for building a sustainable digital economy [1] - IBM has been participating in GITEX since 1981, witnessing and contributing to the development of the UAE's information technology industry over the past four decades [1]

Core Insights - IBM has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cognitus, a company based in Dallas, Texas, specializing in SAP S/4HANA services with industry-specific and AI-driven solutions [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed [1] - Cognitus will enhance IBM's SAP capabilities in complex and regulated industries such as aerospace and defense, energy and utilities, and manufacturing [1] Group 2: Strategic Benefits - The acquisition will bring critical SAP skills to IBM, including expertise in SAP's RISE and GROW initiatives, along with a range of valuable software assets [1]

Core Insights - IBM has generated approximately $1 billion in bookings from its quantum computing business, showcasing its long-standing commitment to this technology [1] - The company aims to achieve full-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers within the next decade, positioning quantum computing as a significant growth driver [2] Quantum Computing Roadmap - IBM's strategy involves integrating quantum computers with classical computing methods, as evidenced by a recent collaboration with HSBC that enhanced bond trading processes through machine learning [4] - The company plans to demonstrate quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and aims to develop the first fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, addressing the critical issue of quantum bit stability [5] - IBM anticipates scaling its quantum computers to 2000 quantum bits by 2033, with applications in security, chemistry, and machine learning once fault tolerance is achieved [6] Market Potential - The quantum computing market is projected to reach nearly $100 billion by 2035, indicating a substantial opportunity for IBM to establish a multibillion-dollar business [7] - IBM's extensive experience in quantum computing provides a foundation for investor confidence in its ability to deliver on its ambitious roadmap [7]

Market Overview - Major averages are experiencing a rebound, with the Dow up approximately 350 points (0.75%), the S&P up nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq up about 1.1% [2] - The Russell 2000 index has reached a new record high, increasing by about 1.4% for the session and up 13% year-to-date [3] Banking Sector Performance - Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, driven by a surge in deal-making on Wall Street [8] - Morgan Stanley achieved a record quarter in its equity underwriting business, while Bank of America set a record for its lending margin and net interest income [9][10] - Goldman Sachs reported over $1 trillion in M&A volume advised year-to-date, indicating strong performance across major banks [10] - Analysts expect street estimates for bank earnings to rise for 2026, reflecting positive trends in loan demand and credit quality [12][15] Trade Tensions and Economic Implications - U.S. Treasury Secretary and U.S. Trade Representative criticized China for new restrictions on rare earth exports, labeling it as economic coercion [28][29] - The U.S. aims to diversify supply chains rather than decouple from China, with ongoing discussions at staff levels [30] - President Trump indicated potential retribution against China regarding cooking oil imports, which could impact U.S. farmers [32][39] ETF Market Trends - ETF net inflows surpassed $1 trillion, significantly ahead of last year's total, with strong interest in thematic and fixed-income ETFs [82][83] - The shift from mutual funds to ETFs is evident, with significant inflows into S&P 500 index-based products and thematic ETFs related to artificial intelligence and nuclear energy [84][86] - Retail investors are driving demand for thematic strategies, indicating a resurgence in retail-driven trading [88] Oil Seed Processing Sector - Bungi, a major oil seed processor, reported positive earnings and updated guidance, benefiting from potential reductions in Chinese used cooking oil imports [40][41] - The sector is expected to gain from a shift away from Chinese imports, with companies like ADM and Darling Ingredients also positioned to benefit [42]