美股第四季度财报季正式拉开帷幕，高盛首席交易员John Flood认为市场对标普500指数的盈利预期"再 次过于保守"，实际表现料将超出共识预期。本周银行股财报将成为市场关键风向标，摩根大通将于周 二率先公布业绩，到2月首周将有68%的标普500成分股完成披露。 高盛指出，共识预期显示标普500第四季度每股收益同比增长7%，但这一预期可能再次偏低。标普500 指数自2023年第一季度以来每个季度都超出了市场共识预期，2025年前三季度均实现两位数盈利增长， 平均超出共识预期6个百分点。 不过，银行股周一盘前遭遇抛售。特朗普上周五在Truth Social上发文称，将从1月20日起实施为期一年 的信用卡利率上限，限制在10%。这一表态令金融股承压，花旗集团盘前跌近4%，摩根大通跌2.88%， 美国银行跌2.36%。 本季度资本支出的走向将对盈利前景产生重要影响，尤其是参与AI基础设施建设的大型科技股。共识 预期显示，超大规模云服务商的资本支出同比增速将从第三季度的75%放缓至第四季度的54%，到2026 年底进一步降至24%。高盛预计AI支出将再次超出共识预期，但同意2026年AI资本支出增速可能放缓。 银行股 ...

Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high [1] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) up over +12% and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rising more than +6% [1] - Chip stocks advanced, led by Intel (INTC) which surged over +10% following supportive comments from President Trump [1] - Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO) also experienced notable increases of over +10% and +7% respectively after securing power supply agreements with Meta Platforms [1] - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced a decline of over -2% after a downgrade by Mizuho [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 50K in December, below the expected 66K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [4] - Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations [4] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index improved to 54.0 in January, exceeding expectations of 53.5 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted modest job growth and a low-hiring environment, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding unemployment and inflation risks [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the current phase as "fine-tuning" rather than making large policy changes [5] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 94.3% probability of no rate change and a 5.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. consumer inflation report for December is anticipated to influence expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Other significant data releases include U.S. retail sales for November and various indices related to manufacturing and job claims [6] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting this week [8] - Other notable companies scheduled to report include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) [8] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index declined by -0.18% amid concerns over Fed independence and President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates [10] - The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -1.8, better than the expected -5.1 [11] - China's Shanghai Composite Index reached a new 10-year high, driven by advancements in AI and expectations of policy support [12]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has led to a significant decline in the stock prices of credit card issuers and related companies, raising concerns about the potential impact on their profitability and the credit market overall [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, stocks of credit card companies such as Synchrony Financial and Bread Financial fell nearly 10%, while American Express and Citigroup dropped over 4% [1]. - Barclays experienced a significant intraday drop of 4.8%, marking its largest decline since October 17 of the previous year, highlighting the vulnerability of its U.S. retail banking segment, which heavily relies on credit card operations [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Proposal - If implemented, the proposed interest rate cap would result in the lowest credit card rates since 1994, with current average rates at 19.65% for general credit cards and 30.14% for store cards [2]. - Major banking associations have opposed the proposal, arguing it could push consumers towards less regulated and more expensive alternatives, potentially reducing access to credit for lower-income individuals [2]. - A study indicated that a similar interest rate cap in Illinois led to a 38% reduction in loans issued to subprime borrowers within six months, suggesting significant negative effects on credit availability [2]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Barclays' U.S. retail banking division is projected to generate £3.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with credit card operations being a crucial component, contributing significantly to its income despite lower profit margins [3]. - Analysts suggest that any regulatory cap on credit card rates would have a pronounced impact on Barclays compared to European banks, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. market for its credit card business [3].

来源：滚动播报 1. 花旗集团：预计美联储将在3月、7月和9月各降息25个基点，此前预测是今年1月、3月和9月降息。 2. 高盛集团：预计美联储将在今年6月和9月各进行一次25个基点的降息，此前预期为3月和6月降息。 3. 巴克莱银行：预计美联储将在今年6月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息，此前预期为3月和6月降息。 4. 摩根士丹利：预计美联储将在6月和9月各进行一次25个基点的降息，而此前的预测是今年1月和4月降 息。 5. 摩根大通：不再预计美联储将在2026年降息，此前预期1月降息25个基点，预计2027年第三季度 将加息25个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The trend of premium metal credit cards is growing, with companies like American Express and Delta Air Lines innovating by repurposing materials from retired aircraft to create unique card offerings [1][7] - The introduction of high-end cards, such as American Express's stainless steel Platinum card and Robinhood's solid gold card, has generated significant consumer interest and social media engagement [2][6] - Premium cards are increasingly viewed as status symbols, reflecting the holder's affluence and lifestyle, leading to a shift in consumer perception of payment cards [4][10] Industry Trends - The market for premium metal cards is expanding beyond high-net-worth individuals to a broader demographic known as "mass affluent," indicating a shift in target customer profiles for banks and fintechs [8][9] - Card vendors are responding to consumer demand with innovative materials and designs, including glass and ceramics, as well as cards with embedded technology [6][12] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with banks and fintechs engaged in an "arms race" to attract consumers' attention and loyalty through unique card offerings [12][14] Market Dynamics - CompoSecure, a leading manufacturer of metal cards, holds approximately 75% of the market share, with a stable growth rate in the high single to low double digits [11][12] - Despite the growth in digital wallets, physical cards remain relevant due to consumer preferences and practical considerations, such as backup payment methods [15][19] - A significant portion of consumers, about 83%, express interest in metal cards, with even higher interest among younger demographics [18]

Group 1 - Xpeng Inc. is preparing for a potential IPO of its flying car unit, Aeroht, with the assistance of Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan [1][2] - The IPO plan may evolve, as banks were previously invited to present their proposals for listings in Hong Kong or the U.S. [3] - Xpeng's CEO, He Xiaopeng, emphasized the company's ambition to expand beyond traditional automotive manufacturing into "physical AI," including Robotaxi and humanoid robots [4] Group 2 - Xpeng's Robotaxi service is set to enter trial phases soon, with plans to launch in 2026 using Alibaba's Amap mapping platform [4] - In the broader context of mobility, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has highlighted air taxis as a significant advancement, potentially positioning the U.S. ahead of China in the aviation sector [6] - Xpeng's stock saw a 2.70% increase in pre-market trading, with shares currently priced at $20.56 [6]

While it's not clear how Trump may enact his plan, the stocks were getting hit badly in premarket trading Monday. ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from major U.S. banks are expected to show record revenues and profits for 2025, indicating a strong performance in the banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase will report its results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday [1][2]. - All six major banks are anticipated to report annual profit increases compared to the previous year, with trading fees reaching record levels, except for Wells Fargo [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index rose by 29% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, which increased by 17% [4]. - Analysts predict that 2026 will mark the third consecutive year of outperformance for the banking sector compared to the S&P 500, drawing parallels to previous strong performance periods in the late 1990s and early 2000s [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to reaccelerate in 2026, with favorable regulatory conditions and anticipated lending growth, supported by lower interest rates [5]. - The momentum in M&A activity is expected to continue, with no signs of reversal in the economic factors driving this growth [6].

Group 1 - Financial services stocks experienced a decline following President Trump's announcement of a proposed cap on credit card interest rates at 10% for one year [1][2] - Citi Group saw a nearly 4% drop in premarket trading, while JPMorgan Chase fell by 3% and Bank of America decreased by 2.45% [1] - Other financial entities were also impacted, with Wells Fargo losing 2% and PayPal dipping 0.26% [1] Group 2 - The proposed cap is set to take effect on January 20, 2026, as stated by Trump in a post on Truth Social [2] - Trump emphasized that the cap is part of his campaign pledge to protect the American public from being "ripped off" by credit card companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% starting January 20, for a duration of one year, but has not provided details on implementation or compliance enforcement [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - U.S. bank stocks fell in pre-market trading following Trump's announcement, with JPMorgan Chase down 2.4%, Citigroup down 3.6%, and Bank of America down 1.5% [1]