格隆汇1月12日｜摩根大通证券交易部门表示，特朗普政府近期对美联储独立性的最新冲击，至少在短 期内对美国股市构成威胁。有关美联储面临刑事调查的消息在周日晚间冲击美国市场，导致股指期货和 美元下跌，资金涌入黄金等避险资产。摩根大通全球市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒表示："尽管宏观和企业 基本面支持战术性看多立场，但美联储独立性面临的风险形成了市场上方的压制因素，因此我们在极短 期内保持谨慎。围绕美联储独立性的风险，可能会推动美国市场在短期内表现落后。" ...

北京时间1月12日晚，美股周一低开。银行股价下挫。此前特朗普要求将信用卡利率上限设定为10%并 维持一年。美国司法部对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔展开刑事调查，标志着美国总统特朗普向央行施压 的行动进入新的、更紧张的阶段。 周一早间，花旗集团、摩根大通、美国银行、第一资本等经营信用卡业务的银行股价下挫。此前特朗普 表示，若金融机构不响应其要求将信用卡利率上限设定为10%并维持一年，则将构成违法行为。 批评人士担心，特朗普的降低信用卡利率上限计划，虽然其目的在于降低消费者的负担，但结果可能适 得其反，因为它将限制银行放贷，从而损害消费者利益以及银行盈利能力。 美国司法部针对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，标志着特朗普与美联储的对峙进入新的、更紧张阶 段。 在这种背景下，投资者大多降低了风险敞口。周一早间，衡量市场恐慌程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率 指数（Cboe Volatility Index，VIX）走高，反映出随着鲍威尔遭调查的消息传出，交易员在期权市场增 加了避险头寸。 美联储鲍威尔在周日晚间一段不同寻常的直接视频声明中证实，联邦检察官已就他关于美联储办公楼翻 修项目向参议院银行委员会所作证词展开刑事调查。 鲍 ...

This week will show just how good 2025 was for the big banks. JPMorgan Chase will lead off bank earnings season on Tuesday morning, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will finish the week's big bank lineup on Thursday. Here's what to watch for. Expectations are lofty Following a year in which rising asset prices and market volatility once again favored the high-end of the k-shaped economy, analysts are forecasting record annual profits ...

【#摩根大通不再预计美联储今年降息# 并预测在2027年加息】智通财经1月12日电， 摩根大通策略师和 经济学家们不再预计美联储今年会降息，并预计明年会加息，这一预期调整是根据上周五公布的12月就 业数据做出的。包括Michael Feroli、Phoebe White和Jay Barry在内的团队在1月9日的报告中写道，"我们 现在预计美联储将在2026年全年维持利率不变，不过鉴于市场不愿排除劳动力市场走弱的可能性，同时 注意力又被美联储主席之争占据，额外的前端溢价可能还会持续几个月。"(智通财经) 来源：贝壳财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shares in US banks with credit card businesses have declined following President Trump's demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, increasing political pressure on card issuers [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - Barclays shares fell by as much as 4.8% in early London trading, marking the largest intraday loss since October 17 [3] - In pre-market trading in New York, Capital One's shares dropped by 10%, while American Express fell by 4.9%. Other major US lenders also experienced declines, with Citigroup down 4.3%, JPMorgan down 3%, and Wells Fargo slipping 2.4% [3] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Credit cards are a significant component of Barclays' US consumer bank, which serves around 20 million American customers and has been expanding its credit card offerings [4] - Barclays' US consumer bank is projected to generate £3.6 billion in revenue by 2025, accounting for 12% of the group's total revenue, with credit cards being a crucial element [4] - A potential cap on credit card rates would disproportionately affect Barclays compared to other European banks, as credit cards contribute significantly to its pretax profit [4] Group 3: Political Context - Trump's comments have intensified scrutiny on card issuers, with interest rates on credit cards typically exceeding 20% in recent years, prompting legislative proposals that face strong industry resistance [2] - Trump has set a compliance deadline of January 20 for the proposed interest rate cap, warning that failure to comply would result in legal violations [5]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 第一资本金融股价大跌9.7%，美国运通下跌4.6%。美国主要银行的股价亦普遍走低：花旗下跌4.1%， 摩根大通跌2.8%，富国跌2.2%。 ...

格隆汇1月12日｜第一资本金融股价大跌9.7%，美国运通下跌4.6%。美国主要银行的股价亦普遍走低： 花旗下跌4.1%，摩根大通跌2.8%，富国跌2.2%。消息上，美国总统特朗普呼吁自1月20日起，将信用卡 年利率上限设定为10%，为期一年，但他并未透露该计划将如何落地，也未说明打算如何促使企业遵守 这一要求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's proposal to cap credit card fees at 10% has led to significant declines in the stock prices of major credit card lenders, raising concerns about the potential impact on their earnings and the broader financial industry [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Shares of Capital One and Synchrony Financial fell as much as 9% in premarket trading, while American Express and Citigroup saw declines of about 4%, and JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America were down closer to 2% [1]. Group 2: Proposal Details - Trump announced a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%, effective January 20, 2026, but the method of implementing this cap without Congressional legislation remains unclear [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The proposed cap could reduce large bank earnings before tax by an estimated 5%-18%, potentially wiping out earnings for lenders focused solely on credit cards, such as Capital One and Synchrony Financial [4]. Group 4: Industry Context - Credit card interest rates have significantly increased, with the average rate reaching 22.30%, up from 16.28% in 2020, indicating a growing concern over high fees in the industry [5]. Group 5: Political Support and Opposition - The proposal has garnered attention from politicians across the spectrum, with some expressing support for limitations on high fees, while banking industry trade groups have warned against the negative consequences of such a cap [6][7][8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Employment Data - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy in January, with two rate cuts anticipated in the remainder of 2026 due to initial signs of labor market stability [1] - JPMorgan has removed its forecast for a rate cut in 2026, now predicting a 25 basis point increase in Q3 2027 [1] - Societe Generale believes the decline in unemployment and rising wages provide a stronger rationale for the Fed to hold rates steady in January [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that despite ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices may continue to decline due to ample supply, predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [2] Group 3: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts a "mild re-inflation" in China in 2026, driven by a slight increase in PPI and CPI, with core CPI expected to rise due to various factors including food prices and service costs [3] - CITIC Securities also notes that the balance between external and internal demand will be crucial for the A-share market, with a higher probability of upward movement in early 2026 [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Jinpu predicts that copper prices will continue to rise, with the market not yet at an end, and expects significant support for copper prices despite short-term corrections [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that investment in the power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period may reach 3.8 trillion yuan, focusing on high-quality development and stability in the energy sector [6] Group 5: Currency and Market Dynamics - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts occurring after the new Fed chair takes office [7] - Huachuang Securities highlights the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces, indicating a growing market with significant potential for expansion beyond the medical field [8] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the RMB will appreciate by 2-3% annually over the next few years, with a total appreciation of over 30% in the next decade, benefiting the stock market [10]

This story was originally published on ESG Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily ESG Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: A Securities and Exchange Commission division director suggested last week that artificial intelligence could provide an answer for investment advisers looking for an alternative to traditional third-party advisory services. “As advisers grapple with the scale and complexity of proxy voting — especially across large portfolios — AI tools like large language mo ...