2025年03月16日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：半导体回升，消费板块趋弱 本周，美股进一步回撤，标普500跌2.3%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素2000成长-1.2%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值-1.8%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值-1.9%）>大盘成长（罗素1000成长-2.6%）。 4个行业上涨，20个行业下跌。强势行业：半导体产品与设备（+4.4%）、能源（+2.6%）、公用事业（+2%）、保险（+0.4%）；弱势行业：技术硬件与设备（- 8.8%）、食品与主要用品零售（-6.3%）、耐用消费品与服装（-6.2%）、消费者服务（-5.6%）、运输（-5.4%）。 资金流向：资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 本周，美股资金 ...

医药生物 医药生物 2025 年 03 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 医药生物 沪深300 从月度数据来看，2025 年初至今沪深整体呈现上行趋势。2025 年 3 月第 2 周美 容护理行业涨幅靠前，计算机、机械设备行业跌幅靠前。本周医药生物上涨 1.77%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18pct，在 31 个子行业中排名第 15 位。 本周线下药店板块涨幅最大，上涨 10.38%；医药流通板块上涨 4.91%，医院板 块上涨 3.4%，血液制品板块上涨 2.9%，中药板块上涨 2.63%；体外诊断板块涨 幅最小，上涨 0.77%，原料药板块上涨 0.83%，其他生物制品板块上涨 0.89%， 医疗设备板块上涨 1.1%，医疗耗材板块上涨 1.32%。 推荐及受益标的 相关研究报告 《从海内外公司 2024年业绩看科研服 务的投资机会—行业周报》-2025.3.9 《诊疗流程优化加速，AI 技术重塑精 准 医 疗 与 产 业 生 态 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.3. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Major pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, and Sanofi are actively investing in the next generation of oral immunotherapy drugs through mergers and acquisitions [4][11] - The demand for oral medications is significant, with surveys indicating that approximately 50-70% of patients eligible for the latest therapies for psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are not using them, primarily due to injection-related issues [4][12] - The existing oral immunotherapy drugs have notable deficiencies in efficacy and/or safety, creating a larger market opportunity for safe and effective oral medications [12] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Major pharmaceutical companies are focusing on the development of next-generation oral immunotherapy drugs, with significant investments and collaborations [4][11] - Johnson & Johnson's collaboration with Protagonist aims to develop an oral peptide IL-23 molecule, projected to peak sales of over $5 billion [4][11] - Eli Lilly acquired Dice for $2.4 billion to obtain its core pipeline of oral small molecule IL-17, currently in phase 2 trials for psoriasis [4][11] - Sanofi is collaborating with Kymera to develop an oral IRAK4 degrader, which is in phase 2 trials for atopic dermatitis and pustular hidradenitis [4][11] - AbbVie has made acquisitions to expand its portfolio of oral NLRX1 and IL-23 therapies [4][11] Market Performance - In the second week of March, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.18 percentage points [5][16] - The offline pharmacy sector showed the highest increase, rising by 10.38%, while the in vitro diagnostics sector had the smallest increase at 0.77% [5][19] Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks in the research services sector include: Baipusais, Bid Medical, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, and others [6] - In the pharmaceutical and biological products sector, recommended stocks include: Zai Lab, Innovent Biologics, and others [6] - For raw materials, recommended stocks include: Pro Pharmaceutical, Jianyou Co., and others [6] - In the medical device sector, recommended stocks include: Aotai Biological, Anjisi, and others [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, significantly increased the hedge fund's stake in Eli Lilly by 184%, indicating a strong belief in the company's future performance [2]. Company Performance - Eli Lilly's revenue surged by 45% year over year in the fourth quarter, reaching $13.53 billion, showcasing exceptional growth compared to industry standards [5]. - The company's cancer drug, Verzenio, generated $1.6 billion in sales, a 36% increase year over year, while the immunosuppressant Taltz reported revenue of $952 million, up 21% [6]. Product Pipeline - Eli Lilly has a promising pipeline, particularly in the weight loss sector, with candidates performing well in trials, including mazdutide, which showed strong results in late-stage trials [7][8]. - The company is expected to introduce several new drugs in the next five years, enhancing its product portfolio [8]. Dividend Appeal - Eli Lilly has increased its dividend payouts by 200% over the past decade, with a conservative payout ratio of 44.2%, making it an attractive option for dividend-seeking investors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by Eli Lilly, particularly in the context of its Alzheimer's drug and GLP-1 medications, highlighting the volatility in its stock price and the shifting dynamics in the pharmaceutical market [1][4][25]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug, Donanemab, showed a cognitive decline relief rate of 35%-40%, but concerning side effects were noted, with 1 in 4 patients experiencing brain edema [3]. - The oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, demonstrated a 14.7% weight loss, but its performance was overshadowed by the injection alternatives [3]. - In Q3 2024, Zepbound's sales were $1.26 billion, significantly below market expectations, while Mounjaro's sales of $3.11 billion also missed targets [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GLP-1 market is experiencing a 45% industry growth rate, but Eli Lilly's sales growth has stalled, raising concerns among investors about real demand versus inventory adjustments [4][6]. - The competition in the diabetes and weight loss drug markets is intensifying, with rivals like Novartis and Pfizer increasing their presence [9]. - The potential for price reductions due to Medicare negotiations poses a risk to profit margins, with historical data indicating significant price drops in similar scenarios [14][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Eli Lilly faces a critical juncture; if Q1 2025 data does not show improvement, market confidence may wane [7]. - The company must navigate three key challenges: proving that demand ceilings have not been reached, maintaining technological advantages, and justifying valuation premiums [10]. - The anticipated market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $200 billion by 2030, but competitive pressures and pricing strategies will significantly impact this projection [12][23]. Group 4: Pricing and Market Penetration - Historical trends in insulin pricing suggest that each new competitor could lead to a 3%-5% decrease in price levels within the GLP-1 market [18]. - The article highlights that while the market for GLP-1 drugs is expected to grow, the actual sales may not align with penetration rates due to competitive pricing pressures [23]. - Eli Lilly's pricing strategy will need to balance between maintaining market share and managing profitability amid increasing competition [14][22].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative journey of Eli Lilly, particularly in the fields of weight loss drugs and the integration of AI in pharmaceutical processes [1][2][3] - Eli Lilly's market capitalization has significantly increased, reaching $786.8 billion, driven by successful diabetes and weight loss medications [1][2] - The conversation highlights the rapid evolution of the Chinese innovative drug market, with a notable reduction in the drug approval lag time from the US to China [2][21] Group 1: Eli Lilly's Market Position and Innovations - Eli Lilly's CEO David Ricks has led the company to a market cap increase from approximately $80 billion to nearly $800 billion over eight years [1] - The company is at the forefront of the GLP-1 class of drugs, which have shown efficacy not only in weight loss but also in treating various diseases [4][6] - The sales forecast for Eli Lilly's diabetes and weight loss drugs is projected to reach $11 billion and $1.9 billion respectively in 2024 [1] Group 2: Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Dynamics - China has become the second-largest innovative drug market globally, with over 113 domestic innovative drugs launched in the past five years [2] - The approval lag for new drugs in China has decreased to less than 12 months, aiming to become the first market for new drug launches [2][21] - Chinese biotech companies are emerging as significant players, collaborating with global firms like Eli Lilly [21][22] Group 3: Drug Development and AI Integration - The drug development process is traditionally lengthy and costly, often taking over a decade and billions of dollars [9][10] - Eli Lilly has optimized its R&D processes, reducing the time from concept to first human dosing to approximately 2.5 years [12] - AI is being utilized to enhance drug discovery and production efficiency, with a reported 8% increase in production efficiency from AI optimizations [15][16] Group 4: Drug Pricing and Ethical Considerations - Eli Lilly employs a value-based pricing model, considering the long-term benefits of drugs to the healthcare system [30][32] - The company aims to balance affordability for patients with fair returns for innovation, emphasizing the importance of sustainable pricing strategies [30][31] - The pricing process involves extensive data collection and collaboration with various stakeholders in the healthcare system [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's shares fell nearly 5% following disappointing data from Novo Nordisk's obesity drug CagriSema, which showed a weight loss of 15.7% after 68 weeks, below investor expectations [1][2] Company Performance - Despite the recent decline, Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 7.5% year-to-date and has risen 492.6% over the past five years, primarily due to successful drug launches like Mounjaro and Zepbound [3][25] - In 2024, Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $16.5 billion, accounting for approximately 36% of the company's total revenues [6] - The company expects revenues in 2025 to range from $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 32% [26] Sales Dynamics - Sales growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound faced challenges in the second half of 2024 due to supply and channel dynamics, raising concerns about demand [7] - Lilly is optimistic about sales recovery in 2025 as it expands manufacturing capacity and launches Mounjaro in new international markets [8][9] Product Pipeline and Approvals - Lilly has gained approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, contributing significantly to top-line growth in 2024 [12] - The company is also advancing its pipeline in obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer's, with several mid to late-stage readouts expected in 2025 [13] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to grow to $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating the space [14] - Competition is intensifying with other companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics developing GLP-1-based candidates that could challenge Lilly's offerings [16] Financial Strategy - In 2024, Lilly returned $3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, and announced a new $15 billion stock buyback plan along with a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend [28]

Eli Lilly (LLY -4.58%) stock has had plenty of good trading sessions over the past year or so, but Monday's sure wasn't among them. The storied pharmaceutical company's shares lost nearly 5% of their value during the big market sell-off that day, and it wasn't only because of the general gloom. That drop compared rather unfavorably to the relatively light 2.7% swoon of the S&P 500 (^GSPC -2.70%).No, no, NovoThat negative investor reaction was directed at companies involved in the white-hot weight loss drug ...

Eli Lilly (LLY) and partner Incyte (INCY) announced that a late-stage study evaluating oral baricitinib in adolescent patients (aged 12-18) with severe alopecia areata (AA) showed clinically meaningful improvements in hair regrowth on the scalp, eyebrows and eyelashes at Week 36.The phase III BRAVE-AA-PEDS study enrolled 257 patients who were randomized to receive either a dose of baricitinib (4 mg or 2 mg) or placebo. AA is an immune system disorder that leads to patchy hair loss on the scalp, face, and oc ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Incyte presented late-breaking results showing that 42.4% of adolescents treated with baricitinib 4 mg achieved 80% or more scalp hair coverage at Week 36, indicating significant hair regrowth potential for severe alopecia areata [1][2][3] - The Phase 3 BRAVE-AA-PEDS study demonstrated that baricitinib can provide clinically meaningful improvements in hair regrowth for adolescents, with results comparable to those seen in adults after a longer treatment duration [2][3] - Baricitinib is positioned as a leading treatment option for severe alopecia areata, with ongoing studies expected to provide further data and regulatory discussions in the near future [2][5] Study Results - In the BRAVE-AA-PEDS study, 257 patients were randomized to receive either baricitinib 4 mg, 2 mg, or placebo, with the primary endpoint being a SALT score of ≤20 at Week 36 [1][7] - At Week 36, 60.0% of patients on baricitinib 4 mg and 36.9% on 2 mg saw at least a 50% improvement in their disease, compared to only 5.7% on placebo [3] - Significant eyebrow and eyelash regrowth was also observed, with 50.0% and 42.9% of patients on baricitinib 4 mg achieving notable improvements, respectively [3] Safety Profile - The most common treatment-emergent adverse events included acne, influenza, and upper respiratory tract infections, with a higher frequency of serious adverse events in the placebo group [4] - The safety profile of baricitinib in adolescents aligns with previous findings in trials for juvenile idiopathic arthritis and atopic dermatitis, indicating a consistent safety record [4][5] Regulatory and Market Position - Baricitinib, marketed as Olumiant, is already approved for adult patients with severe alopecia areata and has received regulatory approval for other conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis and atopic dermatitis [5][6] - The company plans to present additional data from the BRAVE-AA-PEDS study at scientific meetings and submit results for peer-reviewed publication, reinforcing its commitment to advancing treatment options for alopecia areata [5][6]