Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group (MNSO US) with a target price of USD 25.30, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 17.59 [1][2]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to announce its 3Q24 financial results in mid-November, with projected revenue of RMB 4.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be RMB 708 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5% [5][1]. - The report highlights that domestic revenue is projected to be RMB 2.75 billion, while overseas revenue is expected to reach RMB 1.81 billion, indicating strong growth in international markets [5][1]. - For FY24-26, the revenue estimates are RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.3 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.16 billion [5][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q24 is expected to be RMB 4.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 708 million, with a net profit margin of 15.5% [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 19% for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively, with adjusted net profit growth rates of 19%, 24%, and 19% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 44.0% in 3Q24, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased contributions from overseas direct sales [1][2]. Valuation - The company is valued at a 20x PE for FY24, leading to a target market capitalization of USD 7.9 billion and a target price of USD 25.3 [2][5]. - The report indicates a projected diluted EPS of RMB 8.97 for FY24, increasing to RMB 11.14 in FY25 and RMB 13.30 in FY26 [2][4].

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In the latest trading session, MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) closed at $16.75, marking a +1.76% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.18%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.27%. Shares of the company have by 0% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.95% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.46%. Analysts and investors alike will be ke ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso Group [5] Core Views - Miniso is the largest private label lifestyle retailer globally, with a rapid expansion of stores both domestically and internationally. The company aims to increase its store count by 900-1100 annually from 2024 to 2028, potentially doubling its total stores by 2028 [4][13] - The company is focusing on increasing the revenue share from IP products, which are expected to enhance overall profitability. The average annual revenue growth rate is projected to be no less than 20% from 2024 to 2028 [4][5] - The efficient supply chain system supports high cost-performance products and enables global expansion. The company has a low inventory turnover period of 68 days, which is better than its main competitors [4][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of Global Private Label Retailer - Miniso has opened 6,630 stores globally as of March 31, 2024, with 4,034 in China and 2,596 overseas, showing significant year-on-year growth [4][13] - The company achieved revenues of 138.4 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of 22.5 billion CNY, growing 112% year-on-year [4][15] 2. Vision to Become the Leading IP Design Retail Group - The company aims to increase the share of IP products in its revenue from 26% in 2023 to 50% by 2028, capitalizing on the growing consumer interest in IP products [4][35] - The average annual per capita consumption of IP products in China is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [29] 3. Super Supply Chain and Unique Business Model - Miniso employs a highly efficient supply chain that allows for rapid product launches and minimizes inventory risks, with an average of 930 new SKUs introduced monthly [37][38] - The company utilizes three business models (partner, agent, and direct) to expand its store network, adapting to local market conditions [42][43] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 28.1 billion CNY, 35.2 billion CNY, and 39.6 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.23 CNY, 2.80 CNY, and 3.14 CNY [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Miniso [5]. Core Insights - Miniso is positioned as a leading IP-driven retail brand, focusing on global expansion and innovative product offerings, with a significant market share in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The company has established a strong presence with over 7,063 stores globally by mid-2024, leveraging its dual-brand strategy with Miniso and TOP TOY [2][11]. - Financial projections indicate robust revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 165.72 billion, RMB 190.31 billion, and RMB 211.61 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 11% [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Miniso has achieved a global market share of 6.7% and 11.4% in the self-owned brand retail market, leading the industry [2][11]. - The company operates two main brands: Miniso, which offers a wide range of household products, and TOP TOY, focusing on trendy toys [12][31]. 2. Market Dynamics - The global self-owned brand retail market is projected to grow significantly, with Miniso capitalizing on this trend through its innovative product offerings and competitive pricing [25][28]. - The trend towards personalized and high-quality products is driving the growth of the household goods market, which is expected to reach RMB 5.1 trillion in 2023 [25][28]. 3. Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue for FY2024 is projected to increase by 34% to RMB 153.91 billion, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 44.45% to RMB 55.21 billion [20][22]. - The company has seen a consistent improvement in gross margins, with an overall gross margin of 43.1% anticipated for FY2024 [20][22]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the self-owned brand retail market is fragmented, with Miniso leading with a market share of 11.4% in China [36]. - In the trendy toy market, TOP TOY has quickly captured a 1.1% market share, ranking seventh in the industry [31][36].

Analyst Coverage Initiations - Goldman Sachs analyst David Roman initiated coverage on Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) with a Neutral rating and a price target of $46. The stock closed at $40.46, reflecting a decline of 1.7% [1] - Raymond James analyst Laura Prendergast initiated coverage on Mural Oncology plc (MURA) with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $18. Mural Oncology shares increased by 2.6% to close at $3.20 [1] - Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas initiated coverage on ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) with a Buy rating and a price target of $4.5. ASP Isotopes shares rose by 11.1% to close at $3.01 [1] - JP Morgan analyst Michael Mueller initiated coverage on Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $25. Curbline Properties shares gained 4.3% to close at $22.60 [1] - Citigroup analyst Xiaopo Wei initiated coverage on MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) with a Buy rating and a price target of $26.8. MINISO Group shares fell by 0.2% to close at $18.96 [1] Analyst Ratings Summary - MINISO Group Holding Ltd has a target range of $20 to $27.9 based on the ratings of 5 analysts, with the highest target issued by Goldman Sachs on August 25, 2023 [1]

Company Performance - MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) closed at $19, reflecting a +0.74% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.01% [1] - Over the past month, MNSO shares have increased by 10.16%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 5.59% and the S&P 500 gained 1.21% [1] - The upcoming earnings disclosure is anticipated, with a consensus estimate for revenue at $647.47 million, representing a 24.6% increase from the prior-year quarter [1] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for MNSO indicate positive short-term business trends, which are generally viewed as favorable for the company's outlook [2] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks MNSO at 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having increased by 0.27% over the past month [2] Valuation Metrics - MNSO has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.38, which is lower than the industry average of 17.48, indicating that MNSO is trading at a discount [3] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.77, significantly below the industry average PEG ratio of 1.94, suggesting favorable growth expectations relative to its valuation [3] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which MNSO belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 103, placing it in the top 41% of over 250 industries [3] - Historically, the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating a positive outlook for MNSO within its industry context [4]

Core Insights - MINISO opened its new flagship store in Vancouver at CF Richmond Centre on September 28, 2024, enhancing its presence in Canada and aiming to provide joyful shopping experiences through innovative designs and expanded product offerings [1][5][6] Store Features - The Vancouver flagship store spans 3,500 square feet and is strategically located on the first floor of CF Richmond Centre, near major retailers like H&M and Shoppers [1] - The store offers around 3,000 SKUs, including popular items such as blind boxes, plushies, cosmetics, stationery, and household goods, along with exclusive collaborations with brands like Disney and Sanrio [2][5] - The store's design includes playful pink hues and interactive installations, such as a pink Ferris wheel and a makeup area, creating an engaging shopping environment [3][5] Marketing and Promotions - To celebrate the store opening, MINISO hosted events featuring live performances, photo booths, face painting, and giveaways, encouraging social media engagement from visitors [4][5] Strategic Expansion - The Vancouver flagship is part of MINISO's broader strategy to expand across Canada, with plans for additional stores in major malls and themed locations in 2024 [5][6] - The company has already opened approximately 10 new stores earlier in the year, showcasing its innovative design approach and commitment to customer engagement [5] Company Overview - MINISO is a global value retailer known for its trendy lifestyle products and engaging shopping experiences, with a focus on quality, affordability, and aesthetically pleasing designs [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for RMB 6.27 billion, which will make it the largest shareholder [3] - The acquisition is expected to improve the retail landscape, leveraging Yonghui's extensive offline retail network [3] - The transaction is anticipated to be completed in the first half of 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals [3] - The company aims to enhance Yonghui's operational efficiency through its supply chain management capabilities [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - CY2023A: RMB 13,838 million - CY2024E: RMB 17,008 million (up 22.90% YoY) - CY2025E: RMB 20,602 million (up 21.13% YoY) - CY2026E: RMB 24,311 million (up 18.00% YoY) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - CY2023A: RMB 2,253 million - CY2024E: RMB 2,530 million (up 12.28% YoY) - CY2025E: RMB 3,140 million (up 24.12% YoY) - CY2026E: RMB 3,730 million (up 18.77% YoY) [2] - The latest diluted EPS projections are: - CY2023A: RMB 1.79 - CY2024E: RMB 2.01 - CY2025E: RMB 2.49 - CY2026E: RMB 2.96 [2] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - CY2024E: 14.81 - CY2025E: 11.93 - CY2026E: 10.04 [2] Market Position - Yonghui Supermarket is the second-largest chain supermarket in China by sales, following Walmart [3] - The company is optimistic about the improvement in the overall operational efficiency of the offline retail sector in China [3]

传统商超在中国独特的电商、同城配送环境下，还有生存空间吗？ 文丨 陈晶 编辑丨 管艺雯 六七年前，阿里、腾讯、京东先后砸下成千上百亿元冲进零售业。当时的平台巨头都相信 "线下有很多宝 藏"，传统行业也相信互联网行业有神奇的数字化能力，会给沉疴已久的商超业带来新的可能性，盒马被 奉为圭臬。 幻觉过去，盒马几次下调自己的估值，暂缓上市，过起了精打细算的日子， 并在最近几个月盈利 ；高鑫 零售始终找不到合适的买家，刚刚在 9 月 27 日起短暂停牌，将迎来新的投资方。 整个行业不再提 "新零售"，认真学起沃尔玛的山姆。零售业的比拼从流量回归产品和细节，而阿里和腾讯 都把资源集中在自己的核心业务，不再有多余的耐心留给零售业。 这也更显得名创优品投资永辉不同寻常 。 这个开加盟店卖日用百货、IP 周边的公司以 62.7 亿元人民币 现金买下永辉 29.4% 的股票，成为第一大股东。 上一次有公司如此大手笔投资，金额超过名创的，还是 七年前阿里 224 亿港币投资高鑫零售。 本轮交易中亏损最多的是原第三大股东京东。从 2015 年开始，京东先后向永辉共投资 64.3 亿元，持股 13.39%，按照 9 月 24 日收盘股 ...