传统商超在中国独特的电商、同城配送环境下，还有生存空间吗？ 文丨 陈晶 编辑丨 管艺雯 六七年前，阿里、腾讯、京东先后砸下成千上百亿元冲进零售业。当时的平台巨头都相信 "线下有很多宝 藏"，传统行业也相信互联网行业有神奇的数字化能力，会给沉疴已久的商超业带来新的可能性，盒马被 奉为圭臬。 幻觉过去，盒马几次下调自己的估值，暂缓上市，过起了精打细算的日子， 并在最近几个月盈利 ；高鑫 零售始终找不到合适的买家，刚刚在 9 月 27 日起短暂停牌，将迎来新的投资方。 整个行业不再提 "新零售"，认真学起沃尔玛的山姆。零售业的比拼从流量回归产品和细节，而阿里和腾讯 都把资源集中在自己的核心业务，不再有多余的耐心留给零售业。 这也更显得名创优品投资永辉不同寻常 。 这个开加盟店卖日用百货、IP 周边的公司以 62.7 亿元人民币 现金买下永辉 29.4% 的股票，成为第一大股东。 上一次有公司如此大手笔投资，金额超过名创的，还是 七年前阿里 224 亿港币投资高鑫零售。 本轮交易中亏损最多的是原第三大股东京东。从 2015 年开始，京东先后向永辉共投资 64.3 亿元，持股 13.39%，按照 9 月 24 日收盘股 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,758,743, representing a 25.0% increase year-over-year from RMB 6,206,330[14]. - Gross profit increased by 37.9% to RMB 3,389,786 for the same period, compared to RMB 2,457,392 in 2023[14]. - Operating profit rose by 18.1% to RMB 1,494,809, up from RMB 1,265,941 in the previous year[14]. - Profit for the period attributable to equity shareholders increased by 16.4% to RMB 1,170,102, compared to RMB 1,004,836 in 2023[14]. - Basic earnings per share grew by 16.0% to RMB 0.94, up from RMB 0.81 in the prior year[14]. - Adjusted net profit, a non-IFRS measure, was RMB 1,241,886, reflecting a 17.8% increase from RMB 1,054,220[14]. - Adjusted EBITDA also saw a significant rise of 26.0%, reaching RMB 1,967,354 compared to RMB 1,561,788 in the previous year[14]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, MINISO's profit for the period was RMB 1,177,379,000, an increase of 15.7% from RMB 1,017,918,000 in the same period of 2023[25]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was RMB 1,241,886,000, reflecting a growth of 17.8% compared to RMB 1,054,220,000 in 2023[25]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached RMB 1,967,354,000, up 26% from RMB 1,561,788,000 in the previous year[25]. Store Expansion and Market Presence - The total number of MINISO stores increased from 6,413 as of December 31, 2023, to 6,868 as of June 30, 2024, representing an increase of 7.1%[28]. - The number of TOP TOY stores rose from 148 to 195 during the same period, marking a growth of 31.8%[28]. - As of June 30, 2024, there were over 4,100 MINISO stores in mainland China and over 2,700 stores in overseas markets[34]. - The number of directly operated MINISO stores in mainland China increased from 15 to 29, while overseas stores rose from 176 to 343[35]. - The total number of MINISO stores in mainland China increased from 3,604 as of June 30, 2023, to 4,115 as of June 30, 2024, marking a growth of 14.2%[45]. - The number of MINISO stores in third- or lower-tier cities increased from 1,634 to 1,869, reflecting the company's strategy to penetrate various tiers of cities[45][46]. - The number of directly operated TOP TOY stores increased from 9 to 21, while stores operated under the MINISO Retail Partner model rose from 109 to 174 during the same period[37]. - The company plans to focus on expanding the TOP TOY brand in first- and second-tier cities while also penetrating lower-tier cities[47]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China was RMB 5,026.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 17.2% increase from RMB 4,290.7 million in the same period of 2023[91]. - Revenue from overseas markets rose by 42.6% to RMB 2,732.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,915.7 million in 2023[92]. - The total GMV for MINISO stores in overseas markets increased from RMB 4,538 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 6,401 million in the first half of 2024, a growth of 41%[72]. - The total GMV for MINISO in mainland China reached RMB 7,097 million in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 6,140 million in the same period of 2023, marking a growth of 15.6%[67]. Expenses and Financial Ratios - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 65.8% from RMB918.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB1,522.1 million for the same period in 2024[100]. - General and administrative expenses rose by 30.9% from RMB319.7 million to RMB418.6 million for the same periods[101]. - Net cash from operating activities increased by 4.9% year over year to RMB1,293.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[121]. - Current ratio was 2.4 as of June 30, 2024, compared to 2.3 as of December 31, 2023[122]. - The company's gearing ratio was 0.1% as of June 30, 2024, calculated as loans and borrowings divided by total equity[136]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the six months ended June 30, 2024, except for the recommendation regarding the separation of the roles of chairman and chief executive officer[158]. - The company does not have a separate chairman and chief executive officer; Mr. Ye currently holds both positions, which the Board believes ensures consistent leadership and effective strategic planning[159]. - The company has established three committees: Audit Committee, Compensation Committee, and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, to oversee specific aspects of its affairs[165]. - The Audit Committee has reviewed the unaudited interim financial report for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and discussed accounting policies and internal control matters with senior management[167]. - The independent auditor, KPMG, has reviewed the unaudited interim financial report in accordance with Hong Kong Standard on Review Engagements 2410[168]. Employee and Compensation - The total remuneration cost for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 685.5 million, compared to RMB 441.6 million for the same period in 2023[153]. - The company employed a total of 5,245 full-time employees as of June 30, 2024, with 2,400 in mainland China and 2,845 in overseas regions[151]. - The company regularly reviews its employee compensation policies and may grant discretionary bonuses and stock options based on individual performance evaluations[155]. Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2024, Mr. Ye holds a total of 789,541,061 shares, representing 62.7% of the company's shareholding[183]. - Mini Investment Limited has a beneficial interest in 328,290,482 shares, accounting for 26.1% of the company's shareholding, and also holds a short position of 14,000,000 shares (1.1%)[192]. - YGF MC Limited holds 203,401,382 shares, which is 16.2% of the company's shareholding[192]. - The total number of shares in issue as of June 30, 2024, is 1,259,282,577[189].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][19]. Core Views - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB positions the company as the largest shareholder, potentially reshaping the offline retail landscape through strategic collaboration [4][5]. - The company remains focused on its core retail business in the short term, with a five-year growth guidance unchanged, emphasizing product IP development and overseas expansion [4][13]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's influence in offline retail, while Yonghui's ongoing restructuring may provide growth opportunities in the future [4][13]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced the acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming the largest shareholder [4][5]. - The acquisition price is set at 2.35 RMB per share, representing a 3.1% premium over the previous day's closing price [5]. Financial Performance - Yonghui Supermarket has approximately 850 stores across over 25 provinces, with historical revenue and net profit growth rates of 28% and 22% respectively from 2007 to 2020 [8]. - In the first half of the current year, Yonghui reported revenue of 37.78 billion RMB, down 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 275 million RMB, down 26.3% year-on-year [8]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to leverage Yonghui's store locations and supply chain capabilities, potentially enhancing the company's product offerings and market reach [10][11]. - The company aims to implement a model similar to Costco in China, focusing on both specialty retail and low-cost retail strategies [10][11]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 2.755 billion RMB, 3.330 billion RMB, and 3.958 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.3 billion RMB is expected to position the company as the largest shareholder, enhancing its influence in the retail sector [2]. - Yonghui Supermarket, a leading player in the domestic supermarket industry, is implementing a transformation plan to improve store profitability, with a total of approximately 850 stores across over 25 provinces and municipalities [2]. - The company aims to leverage its extensive retail network and supply chain to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency, while also assisting Yonghui in developing high-quality private label products [3]. - Short-term revenue growth is anticipated due to ongoing store expansions, while long-term competitive advantages are expected to solidify the company's market leadership [3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.83 billion, 3.49 billion, and 4.17 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 23.3%, and 19.5% [3]. - For the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.11 billion and 3.81 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.8% and 22.4% [3][4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 13.8%, 34.1%, 29.0%, and 21.1% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focused on expanding its business footprint through continuous store openings, which is expected to provide significant revenue elasticity [3]. - The competitive advantages include a strong product lineup, quality supply chain, asset-light operational model, and a global strategy that will help capture more market share [3].

Company Overview - MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A [2] - The stock is trading with a P/E ratio of 11.27, significantly lower than its industry's average P/E of 16.24 [2] - MNSO's Forward P/E has fluctuated between 10.29 and 23.23 over the past 52 weeks, with a median of 16.46 [2] Valuation Metrics - MNSO has a PEG ratio of 0.57, compared to the industry's average PEG of 1.30, indicating potential undervaluation [2] - The PEG ratio for MNSO has ranged from 0.47 to 0.98 in the past year, with a median of 0.60 [2] - The company has a P/B ratio of 3.89, which is lower than the industry's average P/B of 4.47 [3] - Over the past 12 months, MNSO's P/B has varied between 3.48 and 7.52, with a median of 5.17 [3] Investment Outlook - The metrics suggest that MINISO Group Holding Limited is likely being undervalued at present [3] - The strength of MNSO's earnings outlook further supports its position as a strong value stock [3]

Core Viewpoint - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) is 1.60, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 80% of recommendations being Strong Buy from five brokerage firms [1][2]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - The ABR suggests buying MNSO, but relying solely on this information may not be prudent as studies indicate limited success of brokerage recommendations in identifying stocks with the highest price increase potential [2][3]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [2][3]. - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and is considered a more effective indicator of near-term stock price performance compared to ABR [3][5]. Group 2: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank and ABR are distinct measures; ABR is based solely on brokerage recommendations, while Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions [4][5]. - Zacks Rank is timely in predicting future stock prices as it reflects constant revisions of earnings estimates by analysts, unlike ABR which may not be up-to-date [6]. Group 3: Investment Potential of MNSO - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MNSO has increased by 1.4% over the past month to $1.23, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [7]. - The increase in consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for MNSO, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso with a target price of HKD 51.21 [7][8]. Core Views - Miniso plans to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for approximately RMB 62.7 billion, becoming the largest shareholder, which is expected to enhance its offline retail strategy [2]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to leverage Yonghui's resources and improve supply chain efficiency, while Miniso will continue to focus on its core business and rapid store expansion [5][4]. - Financial projections for Miniso indicate adjusted net profits of RMB 28.8 billion, RMB 36.8 billion, and RMB 46.0 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a maintained PE ratio of 20x for 2024 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Miniso announced the acquisition of Yonghui's shares from three entities, which will be executed through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jun Cai International [2]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in product offerings, channel operations, and supply chain management [5]. Financial Position - As of the first half of 2024, Miniso has RMB 62.3 billion in cash, indicating a strong financial position to support the acquisition [4]. - The report projects significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 17.321 billion in 2024, reflecting a 50.97% increase from 2023 [6]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the growth potential of the offline retail sector in China, particularly with Yonghui's strong cash flow and market position [4]. - Miniso aims for a compound annual growth rate of no less than 20% in revenue from 2024 to 2028, with plans to open 900 to 1100 new stores annually [5].

Core Viewpoint - MINISO Group has announced the acquisition of 29.4% of Yonghui Superstores for approximately RMB6.3 billion, positioning itself as the largest single shareholder of Yonghui upon completion of the transaction [1][2]. Company Overview - MINISO Group is a global value retailer known for trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design, with a significant store network established since its inception in 2013 [9]. - Yonghui Superstores, a leading retail chain in China, operates around 850 supermarkets and generated approximately RMB78.6 billion in revenue in 2023 [2]. Transaction Details - The share purchase agreements involve Guangdong Juncai International Trading Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of MINISO, acquiring shares from various sellers, including subsidiaries of JD.com and DFI Retail Group [3][4]. - The per share price for the acquisition is set at RMB2.35, reflecting a 3.1% premium over Yonghui's closing price on September 20, 2024 [4]. - Funding for the transaction will come from a mix of internal resources and external financing [4]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance MINISO's growth potential and long-term value for shareholders, allowing for the development of higher-quality self-branded products and improved supply chain collaboration with Yonghui [5]. - The company aims to achieve a compound annual growth rate of no less than 20% in its core business over the next five years, excluding the impact of this transaction [5]. Regulatory Considerations - The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including antitrust clearance and shareholder approval, with an expected closing in the first half of 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 51.21 [8][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's undervaluation and high return potential, particularly in the context of the anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit both the numerator (North American store expansion and same-store growth) and the denominator (discount rate) [2][4]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales growth in Q4, driven by new IP launches and a lower base effect from the previous quarter [3][4]. - North America is projected to continue its rapid growth, with the potential for improved profitability as the company optimizes its store operations and expands its franchise model [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In Q3 2023, the domestic same-store sales growth was impacted by a high base effect due to the popularity of the "Barbie" IP products. However, new IP products and the expansion of flagship stores are expected to support revenue growth in Q4 [3]. - The company anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of high single digits to low double digits in Q3, with operating profit benefiting from an increased sales mix of IP products and direct sales [3]. Overseas Market - The North American market is expected to accelerate its growth due to the favorable interest rate environment, which may reduce price competition. The company plans to introduce a franchise model to enhance store expansion and optimize rental and personnel costs [4]. - The report forecasts that overseas revenue will continue to show high growth in Q3, supported by the rapid expansion in North America and Southeast Asia [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 17.32 billion in 2024, representing a 50.97% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.88 billion, a 62.64% increase [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including an expected EPS of RMB 2.28 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.10 [6][14]. TOPTOY Growth - TOPTOY is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory through continuous iteration of its UE model and optimization of store formats, with ongoing trials in overseas markets [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company continues to experience rapid growth, with a significant increase in revenue and profits in Q2 2024, achieving a revenue of 4.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [3] - The company has announced a share buyback plan to repurchase up to 10% of its issued shares over the next year [3] - The company plans to distribute a total of 620 million yuan in interim dividends for 2024 [3] Domestic Performance - The company opened 81 new MINISO stores in Q2 2024, bringing the total to 4,115 stores, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [3] - Same-store sales performance improved slightly in Q2, with a revenue increase of 1.38% year-on-year [3] - TOPTOY stores also saw a revenue increase of 24.3% year-on-year, despite a decline in same-store sales [3] International Performance - The company added 157 new overseas stores in Q2 2024, totaling 2,753 stores, a year-on-year increase of 566 stores [3] - Same-store sales in international markets grew by 16.3% in H1 2024, with North America, Europe, and Latin America showing strong growth [3] - International revenue reached 1.51 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [3] Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 43.9% in Q2 2024, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was 625 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [3] - The company expects revenue to grow to 17.286 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit projected at 2.642 billion yuan [4] Valuation - The company is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 13.5 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 8.6 by 2026 [4] - The report anticipates continued strong performance, with projected revenues of 20.892 billion yuan and net profits of 3.356 billion yuan in 2025 [4]