Core Viewpoint - Wall Street executives warn that despite strong corporate earnings, current valuation levels are concerning, with potential for a market correction of over 10% in the next 12 to 24 months [1] Valuation Concerns - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that "tech stock valuations are fully priced," but this does not apply to the entire market [2] - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick mentioned that while the market has progressed significantly, there are risks related to "policy errors" and geopolitical uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Capital Group's Mike Gitlin stated that most investors view market valuations as between reasonable and full, with few considering stocks to be cheap [2] Market Correction as a Healthy Adjustment - Wall Street executives agree that market corrections should be seen as normal and healthy developments rather than crisis signals [3] - Solomon emphasized that 10% to 15% corrections often occur even in positive market cycles and do not alter fundamental capital allocation judgments [3][4] - Pick stated that investors should welcome the possibility of cyclical corrections, describing them as healthy developments rather than signs of crisis [5] Positive Outlook for Asian Markets - Despite concerns over U.S. stock valuations, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic outlook for Asian markets [6] - Goldman Sachs expects continued interest in China from global capital allocators due to recent positive developments, including trade progress [6] - Morgan Stanley holds a bullish view on markets in China, Japan, and India, highlighting unique growth narratives in these regions [7] - Pick specifically pointed out investment opportunities in China's AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology sectors, as well as Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure development [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new stock market is very active this year, reflecting investors' willingness to take risks and an overall optimistic investment environment, although a potential market correction of 10% to 15% may occur due to high asset prices rather than a macroeconomic downturn [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current investment environment is optimistic, with active participation in the new stock market [1] - A potential market correction of 10% to 15% is anticipated, driven by high asset prices rather than a significant economic decline [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Factors - Easing financial regulations is beneficial for corporate profit growth, but both equity and debt markets are considered expensive [1] - Precious metals and cryptocurrency markets exhibit speculative behavior, posing short-term valuation challenges [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite risks from policy missteps and geopolitical uncertainties, systemic risks may have decreased compared to earlier in the year [1] - The focus for the upcoming year will shift back to fundamentals, particularly corporate earnings, as the market outlook evolves [1] Group 4: Sector Performance - The market is expected to show differentiation, with companies that can generate good returns without significant investment in artificial intelligence likely to perform well [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investment executives from major Wall Street asset management firms suggest that investors should prepare for a potential market correction of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, viewing such adjustments as a healthy market development rather than a sign of a bear market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Performance - Mike Gitlin, CEO of Capital Group, indicates that while corporate earnings are strong, market valuations are high, with most investors perceiving the market as between fair and expensive [1][2]. - Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley, acknowledges that while the market appears optimistic, a correction of over 10% is a normal trend, emphasizing the need to focus on fundamental earnings data in the coming years [2][3]. - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, notes that while tech stocks are highly valued, this does not apply to the entire market, advising clients to maintain a global investment perspective [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - Solomon mentions that 10% to 15% market corrections often occur during bull market cycles, allowing investors to reassess asset classes [3]. - Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, expresses concern over the extreme bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market, particularly regarding major tech companies, predicting a potential short-term correction of 5% to 10% by year-end [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index has surged 37% since early April, with such rapid increases being rare historically, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of this growth [4][5]. Group 3: Risks and Market Behavior - The significant weight of major tech stocks in the market raises concerns about the potential for a sharp decline if unexpected events occur, as the market may have already priced in optimistic expectations [5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is currently trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential irrational market trend [4][5].

Core Insights - Major Wall Street investment bank CEOs indicate that investors should prepare for a potential market adjustment of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, suggesting that such pullbacks are not necessarily negative [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Capital Group's CEO Mike Gitlin states that corporate earnings remain strong, but valuation poses a current challenge [1] - Gitlin notes that most investors perceive stocks to be between fair and overvalued, with few considering them to be between cheap and fair [1] - Morgan Stanley's CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon echo similar sentiments, predicting significant pullbacks as a common occurrence in market cycles [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Solomon highlights that technology stock valuations are quite full, although the overall market is not in the same position [1] - He points out that a 10% to 15% market pullback is typical during upward cycles and does not alter capital flows or long-term allocation strategies [1]

Group 1 - The normalization of US-China tensions is positively impacting capital markets in Hong Kong, making them more receptive to new products [1][2] - China's recovery from COVID-19 has been significant across various industries, with Hong Kong emerging as a key hub for capital raising [2][8] - Hong Kong is currently the most active IPO market globally, with a diverse range of sectors attracting investment [8][12] Group 2 - The competitive landscape for equity capital markets (ECM) has evolved, with Chinese banks increasingly participating in smaller deals, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10][12] - The dual listing of companies allows for greater capital raising opportunities and access to a broader investor base, enhancing the competitive environment [11][12] - Investors are seeking specific allocations in sectors like robotics and biotech, highlighting the importance of company-specific insights from investment banks [13][18] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's wealth management strategy in Asia focuses on connecting clients with global perspectives while catering to high net worth individuals [19][21] - Hong Kong remains a critical financial center for capital flows, serving as a gateway for foreign banks to access the Chinese market [23][32] - The partnership with local firms is essential for providing transparency and local advice, which is crucial for successful capital raising [11][33] Group 4 - Japan's economic landscape is changing, with increased shareholder activism and a focus on governance, making it an attractive market for investment banking and wealth management [27][28] - The demographic challenges in India and China present opportunities for both markets to learn from each other, particularly in developing global competitors [35][36]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese stock market** and its investment sentiment, particularly in relation to **European and Canadian investors**. Key Points and Arguments Investor Sentiment Recovery - There is a notable recovery in investor sentiment in **London and Canada** compared to the second half of 2024, with increased interest in diverse investment opportunities including stocks, industries, and thematic investments [1][2] - Investors who were previously cautious about the Chinese market are now showing signs of optimism, with some moving to a slightly underweight (UW) position [1] Focus on Individual Stocks - A significant amount of time during the meetings was dedicated to discussing specific stock investment ideas that align with particular investment goals, indicating a shift towards actively including Chinese stocks in portfolios [1] Trade Relations and Market Stability - The ongoing **US-China trade negotiations** remain a focal point, but investors do not anticipate significant escalations in tensions, largely due to China's leverage in rare earth materials [2] - The consensus among foreign investors is that both countries have effective balancing measures in place [2] Sector Allocation Differences - Compared to US investors, those in London and Canada exhibit a more balanced sector allocation, showing broader coverage across various industries [2] Policy Guidance and Economic Challenges - Investor feedback on recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session was mixed, with expectations for a focus on technology and new energy, but disappointment over a lack of emphasis on consumer stimulus and other social reforms [7] - Long-term structural challenges for China include an aging population, weak domestic demand, and industrial capacity expansion in a multipolar world [7] Key Indicators to Monitor - Investors are advised to focus on the potential for a US-China agreement and its sustainability, particularly following the confirmation of a meeting between the US and Chinese presidents [8] - The sustainability of the market rebound in the context of macroeconomic slowdown is crucial, with the upcoming third-quarter earnings season being a key indicator [9] - Observations on real estate sales and price stabilization are critical for assessing deflationary pressures and the effectiveness of government measures to address housing inventory issues [9] Future Outlook - If the earnings results align with market expectations, it could indicate a stable performance for the MSCI China Index, which would be a positive sign for future investment [9] - The potential for further positive impacts on the Chinese stock market exists if adjustments in trade measures, such as the withdrawal of tariffs on fentanyl and port fees, are implemented [8] Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the different investment strategies and types of funds prevalent in various regions, highlighting the dominance of emerging market mutual funds and pension funds in Europe and Canada [7] - The document also notes the significance of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which may provide further insights into the government's commitment to addressing supply-demand dynamics [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on **AI spending**, **corporate credit**, and **delinquency rates** in the context of macroeconomic conditions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts** - The expectation is for two consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until January 2026, despite a lack of data due to the ongoing government shutdown [8][9][10] 2. **Delinquency Rates** - Concerns about rising delinquencies are currently unfounded; prime credit remains stable or improving in 2025, while subprime credit is showing incremental stress [10][11][12] 3. **Corporate Credit Health** - Aggregate fundamentals in corporate credit appear strong, with a backdrop of supportive fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies. However, there is a noted bifurcation in credit quality [13][14][16] 4. **Chinese Equities Investment Timing** - It is not yet time to buy the dip in Chinese equities due to geopolitical developments, weak consumption, and a slowing housing market. A valuation derating of 10-15% in MSCI China is anticipated before considering investments [17][18][19] 5. **AI Spending and GDP Growth** - AI spending is not the primary driver of U.S. GDP growth. After accounting for imports, AI contributed only 0.3 percentage points to the 1.6% annualized GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Future contributions from AI spending are expected to be more subdued [21][24][26] Additional Important Insights - **Labor Market Data** - Private labor market data remains weak, indicating potential challenges ahead for employment and economic stability [9] - **Credit Quality Trends** - Prime delinquencies are improving, while subprime delinquencies are on the rise, particularly affecting low- to middle-income borrowers [10][12] - **Corporate Debt Trends** - U.S. corporate debt as a percentage of GDP has been declining since 2020, suggesting a healthier corporate credit environment [14][15] - **Market Sentiment** - Investor sentiment is currently cautious, particularly regarding Chinese equities, as they await clearer signals on corporate fundamentals [17] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape and investment considerations.

2025.11. 04 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周最忙业绩披露期结束后，美股本轮新财报季已经过半。机构统计显示，本季度市场业绩超额收 益较历史均值有所下降，与此同时，考虑到目前的估值水平，美联储的政策立场的微妙前景可能带来 潜在的逆风。 高盛：业绩利好反馈不佳 威尔逊在周一发布的报告中表示："我们认为这是一个未被充分关注的趋势，且预计该趋势将持续至 2026年，推动主要指数与次要指数的盈利贡献范围不断扩大。与往常一样，股市已先于共识预测者 察觉到这一变化。" 事实上，当前财报季的一大亮点是企业营收表现远超预期：截至目前，标普500指数成分股营收同比 增长2.3%，是历史平均增速的两倍。由此看来，企业盈利层面整体呈现乐观态势。贸易担忧情绪的 缓解也对市场信心起到提振作用。但威尔逊及其团队也承认，股市可能面临一些短期风险。 尽管第三季度财报季表现亮眼，但市场并未对此给予充分的回报。 高盛整理的数据显示，业绩超预期的个股在财报发布后，尽管股价在业绩超出分析师预测后仍会上 涨，但其涨幅已低于历史水平。相对标普500指数的超额收益率中位数仅为32个基点。而在过去，这 类个 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported net revenues of $18.2 billion for Q3 2025, an increase of 18% compared to $15.4 billion in Q3 2024[26]. - Net income applicable to the company was $4.6 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 45% increase from $3.2 billion in the prior year quarter[26]. - Diluted earnings per common share rose to $2.80 in Q3 2025, up 49% from $1.88 in Q3 2024[26]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net revenues totaled $52.8 billion, a 16% increase from $45.5 billion in the same period of 2024[27]. - Net revenues for Q3 2025 reached $18,224 million, a 18% increase from $15,383 million in Q3 2024[46]. - Earnings applicable to common shareholders for Q3 2025 were $4,450 million, up 47% from $3,028 million in Q3 2024[46]. - Earnings per diluted common share increased to $2.80 in Q3 2025 from $1.88 in Q3 2024, representing a 49% growth[46]. Segment Performance - Institutional Securities segment reported net revenues of $8.5 billion, driven by strong performance in Equity and a rebound in Investment Banking[28]. - Wealth Management delivered a pre-tax margin of 30.3%, with net revenues of $8.2 billion, reflecting higher asset management and transactional revenues[28]. - The company added net new assets of $81 billion in Wealth Management, with fee-based asset flows of $42 billion[28]. - Investment Management results included net revenues of $1.7 billion, primarily from asset management fees on higher average assets under management (AUM)[28]. - Institutional Securities net revenues increased by 25% to $8,523 million in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year[47]. - Wealth Management net revenues rose 13% to $8,234 million in Q3 2025, driven by higher asset management revenues[47]. - Investment Management net revenues grew 13% to $1,651 million in Q3 2025, reflecting higher asset management fees[47]. Assets and Liquidity - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $1,364,806 million, up from $1,215,071 million at the end of 2024[46]. - Client assets reached $8,861 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to $7,860 billion at the end of 2024[46]. - Average liquidity resources increased to $368,090 million in Q3 2025 from $345,440 million in Q3 2024[46]. - Total liquidity resources as of September 30, 2025, were $368,090 million, compared to $363,389 million at June 30, 2025, showing a marginal increase of 1.9%[155]. - The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) was reported at 129% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from 134% for the previous quarter, indicating a decrease in liquidity resilience[158]. Expenses - Non-compensation expenses increased by 9% in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher execution-related expenses and increased technology spending[31]. - Non-interest expenses for the current quarter were $5,736 million, reflecting a 10% increase compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher compensation and benefits expenses[110]. - Compensation and benefits expenses for the current quarter were $4,388 million, reflecting a 13% increase compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher discretionary incentive compensation[93]. - Non-interest expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $1,287 million, an 8% increase from $1,195 million in the prior year[125]. Capital and Ratios - The CET1 capital ratio was 15.1% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 15.9% at December 31, 2024, exceeding the required minimum of 13.5%[192]. - The company maintained a Tier 1 capital ratio of 16.9% as of September 30, 2025, above the required minimum of 15.0%[192]. - Risk-weighted assets (RWA) totaled $539,296 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $471,834 million at December 31, 2024[196]. - The Tier 1 leverage ratio slightly decreased to 6.8% from 6.9% as of December 31, 2024, while the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) also decreased to 5.5% from 5.6%[197]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 7 million shares in Q3 2025 at an average price of $145.77, totaling $1,085 million, compared to 8 million shares at an average price of $99.94 in Q3 2024[179]. - A common stock dividend of $1.00 per share was announced on October 15, 2025, to be paid on November 14, 2025, for shareholders of record as of October 31, 2025[181].

The stock market’s been on a long, confident run since late 2022, but Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon feels we’re moving swiftly towards the final act. The tension he’s alluding to fits the tape perfectly. For perspective, the S&P 500 is up nearly 16% year to date, a gain that feels like a one-two punch combo fueling dip-buyers while reigniting FOMO across Wall Street. At the same time, the “Magnificent 7” keep doing the bulk of the heavy lifting, jumping 26% year to date, underscoring that AI demand an ...