🚨 BREAKING: Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch crypto trading for retail clients via E-Trade in the first half of 2026. https://t.co/u1E8mhYtRT ...

JUST IN: $1.3 trillion Morgan Stanley to let E*Trade clients trade #Bitcoin in the first half of next year 🚀 https://t.co/uwUsaKTuc1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Investment Bank industry is poised to benefit from a shift towards easier monetary policy, which is expected to enhance client activity and deal flow, while investments in AI and technology will improve long-term efficiency despite short-term cost pressures [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Zacks Investment Bank industry comprises firms that provide financial products and services, including advisory-based financial transactions to corporations, governments, and financial institutions globally. The industry has evolved from focusing on IPOs and M&As to offering a broader range of services, including securities research and investment management [3]. Key Themes Driving the Industry - **Recovery in Underwriting and Advisory Businesses**: After a downturn in underwriting and deal-making since 2022, there has been a rebound in these areas, driven by expectations of a favorable investment banking environment [4][5]. - **Solid Trading Business**: Increased market volatility has led to heightened client activity in trading, suggesting that investment banks will continue to see strong trading income [6]. - **Technological Advancements**: Investments in technology and AI are expected to enhance operational efficiency, despite rising technology-related expenses in the short term [7]. Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Investment Bank industry has outperformed both its sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, with a collective stock increase of 51.3% compared to 18.4% for the S&P 500 [12]. - The industry currently has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 3.06X, which is above the five-year median of 2.15X, indicating a relative valuation that is lower than the broader market [15][17]. Company Highlights - **Morgan Stanley (MS)**: With a market cap of $255.3 billion, MS is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic backdrop and has seen its shares rise by 29.3% in the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates an 11.6% year-over-year growth [21][20]. - **Evercore Inc. (EVR)**: This firm has a market cap of $13.7 billion and has experienced a 63.4% increase in shares over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings suggests a 34.5% year-over-year increase [24][22]. - **Moelis & Company (MC)**: With a market cap of $6.1 billion, MC has seen a 20.4% rise in shares over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 37.9% year-over-year jump [28][26].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley is preparing to offer crypto trading to retail customers through its E-Trade division, marking a significant shift in the wealth management industry [1][2] - The firm is collaborating with startup Zerohash for liquidity, custody, and settlement related to crypto trading, with plans to launch in the first half of 2026 [2] - Morgan Stanley is developing a robust wallet infrastructure to act as a custodian for digital assets, indicating a broader strategy beyond just crypto trading [3] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley views the introduction of crypto trading as a transformative moment for the wealth management industry [1] - The partnership with Zerohash includes an investment stake from Morgan Stanley, highlighting the firm's commitment to the crypto space [2] - The head of wealth management at Morgan Stanley, Jed Finn, emphasizes the potential of cryptocurrency and related technologies, suggesting a comprehensive approach to digital assets [3]

Core Insights - Sustainable funds have outperformed traditional funds since December 2018, with total returns of 54% for sustainable funds compared to 45% for traditional funds according to Morgan Stanley analysis [3] - Total assets under management (AUM) for sustainable funds reached an all-time high of $3.92 trillion in the first half of 2025, with 92% of sustainable funds showing positive returns versus 85% for traditional funds [3][4] - Sustainable funds represent 6.7% of total AUM, a slight increase from 6.6% at the end of 2024, but down from 7.3% in June 2023 due to greater net inflows into traditional funds [4] Performance and Inflows - Net inflows for sustainable funds have declined from over $100 billion in 2022 and 2023 to $80 billion in 2024, although they showed signs of recovery in Q2 2025 [4][5] - European sustainable funds had $24.7 billion in inflows during the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the $2.7 billion in Asia, although Asia-domiciled funds had the strongest net flows as a percentage of prior year-end AUM at 2.6% [6][7] - In the first half of 2025, sustainable funds had net inflows of $16 billion, which was 0.5% above prior year-end AUM, while traditional funds had a higher inflow of 2.1% [8] Comparative Returns - Median returns for sustainable funds were 12.5% in the first half of 2025, compared to 9.2% for traditional funds, marking the strongest outperformance period for sustainable funds since tracking began in 2019 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a sustained and widespread sell-off of the US dollar, citing potential negative impacts from a government shutdown as a contributing factor [1]. Group 1: Dollar Bear Market Mechanism - Morgan Stanley indicates that the US dollar has entered a "bear market mechanism," which is expected to persist for a longer duration, leading to significant selling pressure on the dollar [1]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, prioritizing job market protection over strict inflation control, is seen as a driving force behind the dollar's bear market [4][6]. - Historical data shows that under the dollar bear market mechanism, other currencies tend to appreciate against the dollar with a frequency of 67-84% and substantial average gains [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The market is pricing in a decline of nearly 100 basis points in the dollar's interest rate advantage over the next 12 months, which will significantly reduce the cost of shorting the dollar [1][11]. - Investors have reported that the punitive interest rate spreads associated with shorting the dollar are a challenge, but Morgan Stanley anticipates a "spread relief" that will lower the costs by 50-75 basis points for most currencies, and nearly 150 basis points for USD/JPY [7][11]. Group 3: Government Shutdown Risks - The rising probability of a government shutdown adds new downward pressure on the dollar, as historical trends indicate that such shutdowns typically have a negative impact on the dollar's value [12]. - Current negative risk premium for the dollar is approximately -4%, and a government shutdown could exacerbate this situation, further increasing the risk premium [12]. - A government shutdown would also halt the release of government data, limiting the Federal Reserve's access to economic indicators before its meeting on October 29 [12][14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The focus is on the Chinese economy and its upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, which will provide insights into the direction of China's next Five-Year Plan [7][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Central Bank Policies**: Major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, have largely met market expectations, with the Fed implementing a 25 basis point cut and signaling potential further cuts [4][5]. - **China's Economic Strategy**: The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "quality growth" and "dual circulation," focusing on domestic demand and export diversification, especially in light of trade tensions with the US [7][8]. - **Deflationary Pressures**: Weak domestic demand and increased productive capacity have led to prolonged deflation, exacerbated by recent trade disruptions [8][17]. - **Policy Reforms**: The upcoming Five-Year Plan will address the balance between stimulus for domestic consumption and the need to combat deflation. Reforms could potentially unlock approximately RMB 30 trillion in excess household savings, increasing the consumption-to-GDP ratio by up to 1.6 percentage points by 2030 [13][17]. - **Household Savings**: China's household savings rate is significantly higher than that of its peers, attributed to insufficient social welfare spending, which has led to depressed consumer spending [14][13]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Reactions**: The October Plenary Session is expected to be a critical indicator for Chinese markets, with potential outcomes ranging from continued deflationary policies to significant reforms that could stimulate economic growth [17]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: In sectors like solar manufacturing, market-driven consolidation is anticipated despite government efforts to stabilize prices, indicating a shift towards private sector-led initiatives [12][8]. - **Global Implications**: The clarity of Beijing's reform priorities will not only impact China but also have significant consequences for global markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic policies [17].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Federal Reserve's actions do not meet investor expectations, the market may face volatility risks [2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 30% since early April, driven by reduced uncertainty regarding White House policies and optimism surrounding the AI boom [2] - A new round of looser monetary policy has contributed to market performance, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the current U.S. economy may not require significant rate cuts, as the "rolling recession" has ended and the economy is transitioning to an early cycle recovery [2] - Analysts are revising corporate earnings expectations upward, aligning with improvements in indicators like the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index [2] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's current level of policy easing is below typical standards due to the labor market not deteriorating and inflation remaining above the 2% target [2] Group 3 - The report warns of short-term risks in the stock market if the Federal Reserve recognizes the dynamics of the current economic recovery and decides against substantial rate cuts [2] - The tightening liquidity environment, driven by the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening and large-scale bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury, is contributing to market liquidity pressures [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that signs of liquidity stress may first appear in the widening spread between secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) and federal funds rates [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market may face risks due to liquidity pressures amidst rising expectations for monetary easing [1][2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Federal Reserve's actions do not meet investor expectations, the market could experience volatility [2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 30% since early April, driven by reduced uncertainty regarding White House policies and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has announced a restart of interest rate cuts, with the market pricing in a potential 50 basis point cut this year, and the federal funds rate expected to drop to around 3% by the end of next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the current U.S. economy may not require significant rate cuts, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating strong stimulus [2] - The report highlights that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve has not reached a point that would typically warrant substantial easing, as inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target [2][3] Group 3 - The deterioration of the liquidity environment may exacerbate market risks, with the Federal Reserve continuing its quantitative tightening (QT) while the U.S. Treasury is issuing bonds at a large scale [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that signs of liquidity pressure will first manifest in the widening spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate [3] - The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index, currently at 72.5, is close to a four-year low, and a significant rise in this index could indicate increasing tension in the Treasury market [3]

Welcome back. Stocks on track for another record close. Here to share where he sees the market heading next is Chris Tumi, Morgan Stanley, managing director of private wealth management.It's good to see you back. Thanks for having me. You say good news is already priced in.Really. Like you think it's all in. No, I mean I look I think we've been positive on the market.So I think the variables that were driving performance for us were, you know, earnings breath which is continuing to look good, operating leve ...