Core Insights - Microsoft achieved a significant milestone by reporting over $50 billion in quarterly revenue for its cloud business, with a demand backlog exceeding $625 billion, largely driven by OpenAI [1] - Despite these impressive figures, Microsoft's stock fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading due to a slowdown in Azure revenue growth and acknowledged capacity constraints expected to last until at least the end of its fiscal year in June [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Microsoft allocated $34.9 billion to capital expenditures, with approximately half directed towards GPUs and CPUs for PCs, servers, and Azure data centers [3] - Capital expenditures in Q2 reached about $37.5 billion, bringing the total for the first half to $72.4 billion, indicating substantial infrastructure investment [3] Azure Growth and Demand - Azure's growth rate decreased from 40% in Q1 to 39% in Q2, raising concerns about capacity constraints and return on investment [4] - Despite the slowdown, Microsoft continues to experience strong demand across various workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions, with demand outpacing available supply [4] Investor Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the relationship between rising capital expenditures and Azure's revenue growth, questioning whether Microsoft can expand its computing capacity as planned [2][3] - The head of U.S. software research at Morgan Stanley highlighted concerns regarding the return on investment related to the accelerated capital expenditures [3] Management's Perspective - Microsoft's CFO, Amy Hood, suggested that investors should not directly correlate capital expenditures with Azure's revenue figures, proposing that Azure guidance should be viewed as an allocated capacity guide for revenue delivery [5]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 微软不仅是OpenAI模型的全球最大用户，也是OpenAI构建最新GPT模型时为其提供计算、网络和存储支持的最大合作伙伴。这给了微软两个理由 去打造更强大的Maia AI加速器，而微软也刚刚宣布他们已经完成了这项工作。 所有的大型云服务和超大规模云服务商，以及四大GenAI模型开发商中的三家——OpenAI、Anthropic和Meta Platforms——都在竭力打造各自的 定制AI XPU，以降低GenAI推理工作负载的单代币成本。第四家独立模型开发商xAI似乎准备采用特斯拉与Dojo合作开发的任何产品（如果其可扩 展性足够强，并能适应GenAI的训练和推理任务），但目前看来，xAI对Nvidia的GPU感到满意。 虽然仍有一些玩家对人工智能训练感兴趣，但实际上，英伟达几乎垄断了这个市场。随着全球企业和政府直接或间接通过云技术将人工智能推理投 入生产，预计人工智能推理所需的计算能力将比人工智能训练高出一个数量级，因此，一百多家人工智能计算引擎初创公司有机会开辟一片新天 地，并从中获利。 与所有超大规模数据中心运营商一样，微软希望在部署人工智能驱动的自动驾驶 ...

本文字数：1766，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2026.01. 29 周三盘后，Meta、微软和特斯拉发布最新业绩。 新年以来，随着投资者试图判断人工智能的应用将如何颠覆此前龙头企业的商业模式，大盘科技股、软件股 与芯片股内部的分化态势正持续加剧。因此这些热门赛道公司的业绩，特别是资本开支状况受到了广泛关 注。 按照日程安排，苹果周四将披露最新业绩。 Meta公布利好营收预测，盘后涨逾7% 特斯拉最新业绩超市场预期，但公司全年营收同比下滑3%，创下公司历史上首次年度营收下降的纪录，股 价在盘后交易中上涨近3%。 脸书母公司Meta盘后涨逾7%，超市场预期的销售额业绩指引提振市场情绪。公司第四财季营收598.9亿美 元，同比增长24%，市场预期 585.9 亿美元。调整后每股收益EPS 8.88 美元，预期8.23美元。 Meta预计一季度营收将在535亿至565亿美元区间，高于分析师514.1亿美元的预期值。 此外，2026年全年总支出将在1620亿至1690亿美元之间；为推进人工智能业务的资本支出预计在1150亿至 1350亿美元区间，不仅高于分析师1107亿美元的全年预期，也是202 ...

当地时间周三（1月28日）美股盘后，微软股价一度大跌超8%。稍早之前，该公司发布第二财季财报显 示，公司当季的支出飙升至历史新高，而云业务增速放缓，投资者担心其人工智能投资可能需要比预期更 长的时间才能获得回报。 上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 科技巨头，突然大跌！ 云业务增速放缓 微软最新发布的财报显示，在截至2025年12月31日的2026财年第二财季，公司的营收为812.7亿美元， 同比增长17%；当季净利润为384.6亿美元，合每股收益5.16美元，较上年同期的241.1亿美元（合每股 收益3.23美元）实现增长。本次调整后收益统计剔除了对OpenAI投资的相关影响。第二财季，公司的资 本支出达到375亿美元，比上年同期增长66%，超过分析师预期的362亿美元。 经汇率波动调整后，Azure云计算部门第二财季的营收同比增长38%，这一增速较上一季度放缓。分析师 调查显示，市场此前对该板块的增速预期分别为39.4%和38.9%。微软预计，当前财季Azure销售额将增 长37%至38%。 第二财季，微软实现其他收益99.7亿美元，而上年同期为其他 ...

当地时间周三（1月28日）美股盘后，微软股价一度大跌超8%。稍早之前，该公司发布第二财季财报显示，公 司当季的支出飙升至历史新高，而云业务增速放缓，投资者担心其人工智能投资可能需要比预期更长的时间才 能获得回报。 科技巨头，突然大跌！ 微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉在一份声明中表示："人工智能的应用扩散尚处于初期阶段，但微软已经建立起 一项规模超过部分最大业务板块的人工智能业务。"他补充道："我们正在整个AI技术栈的前沿持续推进，以为 客户及合作伙伴创造新的价值。" 得益于早期对ChatGPT开发方OpenAI的投资，微软成为本轮人工智能热潮的最大受益者之一。去年7月，微软 市值一度突破4万亿美元大关。不过，随着投资者持续对人工智能产业巨额投入产生担忧，其股价已从高位回 落。 DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，云业务增速的放缓，或许已经足以让原本押注云业务表现更强劲的投资者 感到失望。 云业务增速放缓 微软最新发布的财报显示，在截至2025年12月31日的2026财年第二财季，公司的营收为812.7亿美元，同比增 长17%；当季净利润为384.6亿美元，合每股收益5.16美元，较上年同期的24 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: After a short - term acceleration in precious metals, beware of the risk of a phased reversal [13] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index rebounds in the short term [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: During the earnings season, US stocks are more volatile and are expected to remain in a high - level shock [22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, still treat it with a shock mindset, and if the price rebounds, conduct spot hedging at high prices [30] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported [31] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The ore price is expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock [33] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: In the short term, it will operate weakly in a shock [35] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Zhengzhou cotton has increased positions and risen sharply, and there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future [41] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Under the threat of the Argentine weather, the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Closely monitor the South American weather and production forecast adjustments [43] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: Pay attention to the support levels of domestic palm oil at 9400 - 9500 yuan and Malaysian palm oil at 4300 ringgit. In the short term, focus on the de - stocking range of Malaysian palm oil in January, the specific details of the US 45Z review, and the domestic market's acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Still view it with a bullish mindset, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the trading volume and volatility stabilize, but pay attention to position control and risk management [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level shock [52] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Unilaterally, gradually pay attention to the opportunity to stop losses on short positions; for arbitrage, suggest waiting and seeing [57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilaterally, be cautious about chasing long, continue to hold previous long positions, and manage positions well; for arbitrage, wait and see in terms of month - spread and internal - external spreads [60] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Focus on the implementation of supply recovery expectations and the improvement of consumption [64] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Pay attention to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the short term [66] - **Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances [68] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: The asphalt price fluctuates strongly [69] Core Views - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest - rate level unchanged, with an increased marginal optimism about the economy, rising market risk appetite, and a rebound in the US dollar index [17] - Gold prices are rising strongly and accelerating, with increased market volatility. The Fed's interest - rate meeting was as expected, and while the employment market is stable, there is an upward risk of inflation [12] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, recently showing weakness, with no obvious trend - driven factors. The seasonal weakening of building materials demand suppresses steel prices, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so there is limited downward space [29] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate production of Fresnilloplc in 2025 increased and decreased. Be cautious about chasing long, and previous long positions can be held. Short - term operation is difficult, and position management is recommended [4][59] - The utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt production capacity has decreased. Due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, the rebound of asphalt is relatively strong, but the pre - holiday stocking pace has slowed down, and the actual demand support is weak [5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors opposed the decision and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the situation in Iran remains uncertain, driving gold prices up. The Fed's monetary policy will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and short - term precious - metal fluctuations increase [12] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US Treasury Secretary defended the Justice Department's investigation of Powell, emphasizing that independence does not mean no responsibility [14] - Trump threatened Iran and urged it to negotiate a nuclear agreement. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a more cautious attitude towards potential future rate adjustments. The US dollar index rebounded in the short term [15][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q4 earnings were higher than expected, but its annual revenue declined for the first time. Meta's Q4 results, Q1 guidance, and annual capital expenditure exceeded expectations. Microsoft's capital expenditure reached a record high, but the growth rate of its cloud business slowed down [18][19][20] - The Fed continued to suspend rate cuts in January, and future rate cuts are still the benchmark path. Large - tech company earnings support market risk appetite, but the market is sensitive to the slowdown of cloud business. US stocks are expected to remain in a high - level shock during the earnings season [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on January 28, with a net investment of 1.4 billion yuan. The central bank's short - term interest - rate control thinking is clearer [23] - The bond market will enter a shock in the short term, but the shock is expected to be short - lived. It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [23][25] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. In 2025, China started the renovation of 27,100 old urban residential areas, exceeding the annual plan. The production volume of three major white - goods in February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year [26][27][29] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, with the weakening of building materials demand suppressing prices. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so the steel price is expected to maintain a shock pattern. Pay attention to the pre - holiday winter - stocking and spot - futures arbitrage operations of traders [29] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 28, the price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable. Some traders expect the coal price to rise, and there was a small amount of demand at the end of the month, but the actual transaction is limited [31] - The steam - coal price has stabilized since January and is expected to be strongly supported in the short term due to the seasonal decline in supply and high demand in February [31] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, Vale's iron - ore production reached the highest level since 2018. In Q4, iron - ore production increased by 6% year - on - year, while pellet production decreased by 9% [32] - Iron - ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock before and after the Spring Festival due to concerns about plate orders and the end of raw - material replenishment [32] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market remained stable. Most coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream coke enterprises' replenishment was basically completed. The first round of coke price increase is still in the game stage [34] - In the short term, the coking - coal market will operate weakly in a shock due to high supply and the end of downstream replenishment [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of January 24, 2026, the cotton - planting progress in Brazil reached 60.6%, accelerating significantly year - on - year. As of January 23, the inspection volume of US cotton accounted for 96.9% of the estimated annual output, with a slower progress year - on - year [36][37] - The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is higher than that of the previous year, and cotton enterprises are more willing to support the basis. Zhengzhou cotton increased positions and rose sharply, but there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future due to factors such as the narrowing of the cotton - yarn price difference and the approaching Spring Festival [40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is estimated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume in February will decrease year - on - year. The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in February is about 5.005 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in March and April are 4.8 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively [42][43] - The hot and dry weather in Argentina threatens soybean production, and the CBOT soybean and soybean - meal futures prices have risen. The domestic soybean - meal spot market is stable, and the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly under the threat of the Argentine weather [43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina is experiencing continuous high - temperature and drought weather, which may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 crop yield [44] - The oil market continued to rise. The drought in Argentina may affect the new - crop soybean yield and support the FOB price of Argentine soybean oil. Pay attention to the support levels of palm oil and relevant factors such as the de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials' annual production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 110,000 tons, and it plans to expand the production capacity in the future [46] - The lithium - carbonate market is in a high - level shock, and the core issue is the downward price transmission. The demand supports the price, but the industrial negative feedback needs time to materialize. It is recommended to view it with a bullish mindset and pay attention to long - on - dip opportunities [47][48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The owners of Turkey's largest open - pit copper mine have hired Goldman Sachs to handle the sale. Grupo Mexico plans to invest billions of dollars in multiple projects in the next decade, and its 2026 copper production plan is 1.028 million tons [50][52] - In the short term, the copper price is likely to operate in a high - level shock due to the volatile US dollar, marginal improvement in domestic demand, and weakening downstream replenishment demand [52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fog in Henan affected the arrival of waste batteries, and a large - scale smelting enterprise reduced production by 30%. The LME lead was at a discount of $47.43 per ton on January 27 [53][54][56] - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the reduction of secondary smelters is expanding, there is no clear upward driving force, and the lead price may bottom - seek in the short term [56] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 27, the LME zinc was at a discount of $30.81 per ton. Fresnilloplc's zinc - concentrate production in 2025 was 105,900 tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease, and its production guidance for 2026 is 85,000 - 95,000 tons [58] - The zinc price rose due to the influence of the aluminum price. The overseas energy price increased, and the February smelting production is expected to decline. Be cautious about chasing long, hold previous long positions, and manage positions well [59][60] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - India significantly reduced the tariff on EU cars, and the price of LPDDR memory used in iPhone increased. On January 27, the LME tin was at a discount of $244 per ton [61][62][63] - The supply - side recovery of tin is uncertain, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of supply recovery and consumption improvement [63][64] 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending January 23. Trump threatened Iran again, and the market is pricing in the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East [65] - Oil prices are rising in a shock, and the short - term market focus is on geopolitical situations, with a possibility of further increase [65] 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 23, the EIA propane/propylene inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels. The increase in exports was the main reason for the inventory reduction, and the price was strong due to geopolitical disturbances [67] - Due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly [68] 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - From January 22 - 28, 2026, the utilization rate of domestic asphalt production capacity decreased. The BU futures price rose stronger than crude oil due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, but the pre - holiday stocking slowed down, and the actual demand support was weak [68] - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and pay attention to the post - holiday raw - material procurement [68][69]

Microsoft - Microsoft’s stock decline is attributed to slowing revenue growth from its Azure cloud platform and concerns over backlog concentration, particularly its reliance on a significant deal with OpenAI [1][2] - The company’s remaining performance obligations, or backlog, is currently $625 billion, more than double from a year ago, with approximately 45% tied to OpenAI [2] - Despite these concerns, analysts believe Microsoft can monetize AI effectively due to its diverse business segments, including applications, security, and infrastructure [3] - Microsoft reported $81.3 billion in revenue for its fiscal second quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $4.14, exceeding analyst expectations [21] - Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes Azure, reached $32.9 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $32.39 billion [21] - Capital expenditures for Microsoft were $37.5 billion, higher than the expected $34.3 billion, with a significant portion allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs [18] Meta - Meta's anticipated capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion, significantly higher than last year's $72.22 billion and above analysts' expectations of $110 billion [13][14] - The increase in spending is primarily driven by investments in AI initiatives, particularly the Meta Superintelligence Labs [14] - Meta reported fourth-quarter earnings of $8.88 per share, with a 24% year-over-year revenue increase to a record $59.89 billion, driven by a surge in ad revenues [15] - The company expects first-quarter revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, exceeding analyst projections [15] Tesla - Tesla's stock rose after reporting quarterly revenue of $25.71 billion, surpassing the consensus expectation of $25.12 billion, with net income at 60 cents per share [17] - The company did not provide a detailed outlook for vehicle sales, focusing instead on maximizing factory capacity utilization [12] - Tesla confirmed plans to unveil a new Optimus robot in the first quarter of 2026, with production expected to start in the same year [10]

At the silicon layer, Nadella pointed to a mix of NVIDIA and AMD GPUs and Microsoft’s own chips. He said Microsoft brought online its Maia 200 accelerator, describing it as delivering “10+ petaflops at FP4 precision” with “over 30% improved TCO compared to the latest generation hardware” in Microsoft’s fleet. He also highlighted the Cobalt 200 CPU, which he said delivers “over 50% higher performance” compared with Microsoft’s first custom processor for cloud-native workloads.On infrastructure, Nadella empha ...

Core Insights - Microsoft's transformation story has shifted to focus on artificial intelligence (AI), with Azure as the primary platform for large-scale AI training and inference [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 FY2026, Microsoft's overall revenue reached $81.3 billion, a 17% increase year over year, while operating income rose 21% to $38.3 billion [6]. - The Intelligent Cloud segment saw a revenue increase of 29% year over year, totaling $32.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services growing 39% [5]. AI Strategy - Microsoft has built an AI business larger than some of its biggest franchises, emphasizing the importance of AI across its entire stack to create new value for customers [4]. - The company retains 80% of sales from OpenAI models to Azure customers, while a smaller percentage comes from Anthropic's AI models [9]. Capital Expenditures - AI-driven capital expenditures increased by 66% in the quarter, with total capital expenditures reaching $37.5 billion [7][10]. - Microsoft's commercial remaining performance obligation increased by 110% to $625 billion, indicating strong long-term demand for AI capabilities [8]. Infrastructure and Governance - The company is investing heavily in data centers and specialized hardware to support AI workloads, reflecting confidence in sustained demand for AI-driven compute [12]. - Governance, security, and compliance are emphasized as essential for large enterprises and governments to adopt AI at scale [13]. Business Applications - Revenue from Microsoft 365 grew 16% to $34.1 billion, driven by strong performance in both commercial and consumer cloud offerings [14]. - Dynamics 365 revenue rose 19%, showcasing AI's impact on business applications like CRM and ERP systems [15].

Core Insights - Investors are seeking a better balance between AI spending and AI revenue, particularly looking for stronger performance from Microsoft's cloud business in the latest quarter [1] Company Focus - The emphasis is on Microsoft's cloud business performance, indicating that investors are not satisfied with the current returns from AI investments [1]