墙的一侧是每秒万亿次的浮点运算渴求；另一侧，则是平均电网年龄超 40 年、变压器短缺率高达 30%、扩建周期长达 5-10 年的基建泥潭。 也因此，海豚君对于北美缺电重点理解： 1）缺电背后是是一个中短期的供需差，还是一个长期的结构性问题？ 2） 缺电 如何解决，解决的背后对应的怎样的细分赛道的投资机会？ 本篇重点探讨第一个问题，重点理解一个高度成熟的国家，如何混到无电可用的。 | 发布日期 | 政策文件 | 发布主体和类型 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月29日 | 《Unleashing American 总统办公室文件 | | 发布包括鼓励美国能源勘探和生产在内的 8 项政 | | | Energy » (Executive | | 策:立即审查所有可能加重国内能源资源开发负担 | | | Order 14154) | | 的机构行动;撤销和修订部分总统行动与监管行 | | | | | 动:通过高效审批释放能源主导地位:优先保障环 | | | | | 境分析的准确性;终止"绿色新政";保护美国国 | | | | | 家安全:恢复美国矿产主导地位等 ...

Peter Thiel's hedge fund is making a contrarian AI bet that avoids the sector's most obvious winners. ...

Macro Dynamics - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, aiming to enhance the efficiency of refinancing for quality listed companies and adapt to the needs of innovative enterprises [2] - The measures include revising rules for "light asset, high R&D investment" companies and allowing companies facing stock price declines to raise funds through private placements and convertible bonds [2] Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting with automotive enterprises to discuss the optimization of the vehicle trade-in policy and the implementation of pilot reforms in automotive circulation [3] - The automotive industry is recognized as a strategic and pillar industry for the national economy, with expectations for significant contributions to consumption and economic growth by 2025 [3][4] - The Ministry plans to implement various measures to expand and improve automotive consumption, including optimizing trade-in policies and enhancing industry management systems [4] Transportation and Ride-Hailing - The inter-ministerial joint meeting on the regulation of new transportation formats held a discussion with Gaode Dache, addressing issues such as inadequate management of partner ride-hailing platforms and price suppression [5] - The meeting emphasized the need for improved supervision of ride-hailing platforms, ensuring compliance, and protecting drivers' rights [5] Real Estate - Chongqing has introduced first-time homebuyer subsidies and talent homebuyer subsidies, providing a 0.5% subsidy on the total transaction amount for first-time home purchases in urban areas [6] Financial Institutions - The People's Bank of China authorized the London branch of the Bank of China to act as the RMB clearing bank in the UK, enhancing the internationalization of the RMB [7] Private Equity - The number of billion-level securities private equity firms in China reached 122, marking a historical high and an increase from 112 at the end of December 2025 [8] Market Data - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.98% and a total market turnover exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.76%, with notable individual stock performances, including a 63% increase in Lanke Technology [12] - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 170.1 billion yuan as of February 6, 2026 [13] Company Dynamics - Haiguang Information stated that its business layout does not currently involve TPU chips, focusing instead on core strategic products [14] - Meta received a warning from the EU for potentially hindering competition in the AI assistant market by restricting access to WhatsApp [15] - Perfect World announced that its stock price had deviated significantly, with no need for corrections in previously disclosed information [16] - Evert plans to acquire 100% of Shengpu shares, with its stock set to resume trading on February 10, 2026 [17]

Group 1: Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) - Hims & Hers Health announced it will stop offering a compounded version of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill due to pressure from Novo and increased FDA scrutiny [3][4] - Following this announcement, HIMS shares fell by 15% in premarket trading [2] Group 2: Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics' shares rose by 6.4% after reports of imminent mass production of HBM4 memory chips, which are essential for AI infrastructure [4] - The company plans to ship these semiconductors to Nvidia as early as the third week of February [5] Group 3: Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) - Luckin Coffee inaugurated its 30,000th store, marking a shift towards targeting Starbucks' premium market with its first flagship store in Shenzhen [5][6] - The flagship store features higher-priced offerings compared to typical Luckin products, with a focus on pour-over and cold brew coffee drinks [7] - This store also represents Luckin's first use of high-end semi-automatic coffee machines [7]

每经记者｜宋欣悦 每经编辑｜程鹏 高涵 记者|宋欣悦 编辑|程鹏 高涵 杜恒峰 校对|陈柯名 ① 【三大期指齐涨，太空概念股盘前走高】截至发稿，道指期货涨0.22%、标普500指数期货涨0.16%、 纳指期货涨0.17%。太空概念股走高，Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile涨近3%。 ⑧ 【或无缘Rubin首年订单，美光科技跌超2%】美光科技跌超2%。消息面上，英伟达或将把美光 HBM4排除在Rubin架构的首年量产之外。 ⑨ 【QuantumScape涨超22%，已于上周启动固态电池试生产】截至发稿，QuantumScape涨超22%。消 息面上，美国固态锂金属电池公司QuantumScape已于2月4日在其位于加州圣何塞的总部正式启用Eagle 生产线，进行固态电池试生产。 ⑩ 【高盛预计美股2026年IPO募资总额有望翻两番至创纪录的1600亿美元】高盛分析师表示，美国股市 IPO活动预计在2026年出现大幅反弹。随着SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic等知名企业临近上市，全年募资 总额有望翻两番至创纪录的1600亿美元。 （免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic sentiment in the market, particularly in the U.S. stock market, with indicators suggesting a peak in positions and liquidity, while also identifying key investment opportunities in international stocks, Chinese consumer sectors, and emerging market resource producers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Bull & Bear Indicator from Bank of America has reached 9.6, the highest level since March 2006, indicating a peak in positions, liquidity, and inequality [1]. - The recent market rebound has led to a surge in optimism, with investors positioning themselves ahead of the holiday season [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The best investment directions towards 2026 include international stocks, the Chinese consumer sector, and emerging market resource and commodity producers [3]. - The AI computing demand is still in its early growth phase, with Nvidia's CEO stating that high investments will continue for the next 5-10 years, alleviating concerns about "overcapacity" in computing power [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The optical communication sector has seen significant gains, driven by Nvidia's rebound and the growing demand for AI computing [3][10]. - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with major indices rising and significant trading volumes, particularly in the optical communication and AI application sectors [10]. Group 4: Industry Developments - Nvidia's CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) is expected to begin mass production in Q4 2026, with major clients likely to include Microsoft and Oracle [7]. - The AI application sector is gaining traction, with companies like Rongxin Culture and Haikan Co. seeing stock price surges due to advancements in AI models [10][12]. Group 5: Chemical and Real Estate Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing price increases, with companies like Xinhecheng raising export prices for vitamin E [19]. - The real estate market shows a year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [21].

资讯日报：日本自民党在众议院选举中取得胜利 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2026 年 2 月 9 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 周常失 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 湖铁 | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26.560 | (1.21) | (3.02) | 3.63 | | 恒生科技 | 5.346 | (1.11) | (6.51) | (3.08) | | 恒生国企 | 9.031 | (0.68) | (3.07) | 1.32 | | 上证指数 | 4.066 | (0.25) | (1.27) | 2.44 | | 日经225 | 53.818 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 7.78 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.976 | (0.83) | 0.60 | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.798 | 1.97 | (0.10) | 1.27 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,541 | 2.18 | (1.84) | (0.91) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The release of the Claude Opus 4.5 model by Anthropic marks a significant turning point for AI agents, leading to a substantial increase in CPU demand as the model transitions from a "super intern" to a "senior architect" [4][12] - The report anticipates a surge in CPU demand driven by the proliferation of AI agents, with server CPU configurations evolving from 1:32 to 1:4, and even reaching 1:2 in advanced products [4][60] - The CPU market is expected to experience a price increase due to rising demand, precious metal price hikes, and limited advanced process capacity, with a 10% price increase already observed as of February 2026 [4][66] Summary by Sections 01 Phenomenon of AI Agents - AI agents are defined as closed-loop intelligent systems capable of autonomous perception, planning, execution, reflection, and memory [12] - The shift from instruction-driven to goal-driven AI is highlighted, enabling end-to-end task closure [12] 02 Evolution of Opus 4.5 Model - Opus 4.5 significantly enhances coding capabilities, acting as a highly autonomous AI engineer, with improved understanding of complex tasks and better performance metrics compared to previous models [29][37] - The model introduces a balanced pricing strategy and a new "effort" parameter for precise cost and performance management [28][29] 03 Explosion of CPU Demand Under AI Agents - The report predicts that the demand for CPUs will increase significantly due to the operational needs of AI agents, which require CPUs to act as central scheduling and execution units [60][61] - The anticipated growth in the server CPU market is projected to reach $45 billion by 2026, with Intel and AMD expected to dominate the market with shares of approximately 55% and 40%, respectively [72]

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech stocks experienced significant market cap losses, totaling over $1 trillion, leading to cautious trading in the premarket session Group 1: Market Performance - As of 6:12 a.m. ET, Oracle increased by 1.5% and Microsoft by 0.8%, while Meta decreased by 0.3%, Amazon by 0.1%, Alphabet by 0.6%, and Nvidia by approximately 1% after a previous rebound of 7.9% [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - The market reacted negatively to rising expenditure outlooks from Big Tech companies, which reported a combined capital expenditure of around $120 billion for the fourth quarter, with projections reaching $660 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of nations like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Cloud companies are seeing increasing margins but face potential stock volatility due to macroeconomic challenges; however, management teams express confidence in their demand forecasting and capacity utilization by 2026 [3]

李想2026年2月9日微博： 全新L9用的马赫100双芯片，总算力2560 TOPS。关键不只是总算力，更要看单颗有效算力：马赫100 单颗算力1280 TOPS，因为采用数据流架构提供给算法软件最大的优化空间，单颗马赫100的有效算 力就是英伟达Thor U的3倍，全新L9的双马赫100芯片，有效算力就是Thor U的5-6倍了。 什么是有效算力？就是实际跑VLA大模型时，能榨出来的真实性能。传统GPU架构利用率低，我们 的数据流架构利用率高、功耗低。 具体表现：同样场景下，我们能做到更高帧率、更短反应时间。紧急情况下，可以更早感知风险，更 快做出避险动作——这就是体验代差，不仅是参数好看，是关键时刻管用。 2022年启动自研时，我们就判断：2025年开始，行业进入【自研算法+自研算力】软硬一体时代。马 赫100，是这个判断的第一步。 2025年7月22日36氪汽车发文《 市值第一英伟达，被中国汽车浇冷水｜深氪 》 7月23日进行了部分修改，修改后的内容为： "双方对Thor进行了数轮调整后，才达到量产交付效果。但英伟达原先宣传的700TOPS算力，实际目 前可释放的只在500左右。" 2025年7月27日 ...