从参与调研的机构来看，2025年12月共有71家公募机构调研较为积极，调研次数均不低于20次。其中， 华夏基金以100次调研位居第一，成为当月调研最勤奋的机构，其调研个股多集中在机械设备和电子行 业。博时基金以90次调研位列第二，同样重点关注电子和机械设备行业。南方基金以77次调研排名第 三，其调研个股也以电子和机械设备行业为主。 具体来看，2025年12月，电子和机械设备行业最受公募调研青睐，电子行业中高达64只个股获得公募调 研关注，合计调研次数达654次居首，海光信息、领益智造和灿芯股份成为该行业中公募关注较高个 股。机械设备行业被调研505次紧随其后，该行业中高达72只个股获得公募调研关注，是所有行业中被 调研个股数量最多的行业，其中杰瑞股份、博盈特焊和伟创电气成为该行业中最受关注个股。 此外，电力设备、医药生物、汽车、计算机和基础化工行业的调研次数均超过200次，覆盖个股数量也 均不低于28只。 个股方面，长安汽车以88次调研成为最受公募关注的个股，公司主要从事汽车整车及核心零部件的研 发、制造与销售，以汽车为核心主业，正加速向智能低碳出行科技公司转型，并同步推进新能源、智能 化与全球化三大方向。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism for the apparel industry in 2026, highlighting potential recovery driven by middle-income consumer growth and stimulus policies [5] Core Insights - The retail industry in 2026 will focus on delivery speed, value, and the introduction of agency commerce, with successful companies expanding market share through alternative revenue sources like memberships and media [3][4] - The consumer environment in the U.S. is expected to improve, benefiting discretionary spending, particularly in high-growth sectors like energy drinks, nicotine, and beauty products [6] - The food packaging and retail sectors will see improved profit margins due to falling commodity prices, although competition from private labels is intensifying [7] - Key investment themes include the performance of middle-income consumers, with a projected 2.5% increase in real income for the third and fourth income quintiles in 2026 [2] Retail Industry Summary - Four key themes for the retail industry in 2026: delivery speed, value, agency commerce, and the expansion of alternative revenue sources [3] - Companies like Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, and Estee Lauder are highlighted as top investment picks [3][14] Apparel Industry Summary - The apparel industry is expected to recover due to consumer demand for wardrobe updates and supportive policies for middle-income groups [5][11] - Factors influencing profitability include pricing management, demand elasticity, and tariff impacts [5] Nicotine Products Summary - Nicotine products have outperformed the market for two consecutive years, driven by consumer pressure and value-oriented behavior [6] Food Packaging and Retail Summary - The decline in commodity prices is expected to enhance profit margins, while competition from private labels poses risks [7] - Companies like Albertsons, Kroger, and Sprouts are positioned to benefit, along with protein companies like Tyson Foods and Hormel [7] Consumer Staples Summary - Recommended stocks in the consumer staples sector include Philip Morris and Monster, both showing strong growth potential [8] - Attention is drawn to companies like Pepsi, Elf, and Celsius, which may be undervalued due to excessive short-selling sentiment [8] Investment Opportunities Summary - Notable investment opportunities include Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, Estee Lauder, Ross Stores, and Marriott, all expected to benefit from favorable consumer trends [14]

12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年 12月24日起施行。 此次北京带头进一步放宽住房限购政策，有望推动顺周期复苏。 此前，国海证券指出，房地产市场持续的结构性调整，可能通过资产负债表效应压缩居民财富感知，进 而不仅抑制消费意愿，也进一步削弱购房者的加杠杆意愿。 东吴证券提供的数据显示：2024年我国居民消费率为39.9%，与发达国家相比仍有约10-30个百分点的差 距。 在消费潜力方面，相比必需消费，发展型、享受型的可选消费"正处在普及与升级阶段"，或更具成长 性。 有北京房地产中介人员向客户分享了一幅政策调整前后的对比图： 关注房地产及可选消费、顺周期相关ETF后市表现： 《通知》调整集中在几方面：一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保 或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"。 二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月 CPI 涨幅扩大，PPI 降幅小幅走阔 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后——20251210 【固定收益】菜价推升 CPI——20251210 ◼ 研究视点 【电力】新能源新格局：解码 19 省机制电价竞价结果——20251210 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后 作者 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 14.0% | 19.3% | 91.1% | | 综合 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 46.2% | | 国防军工 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 15.1% | | 轻工制造 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 10.6% | | 机械设备 | 1.6% | 4.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a divergence between "new economy stocks" with rising valuations and "old economy stocks" that are undervalued, leading to a lack of a strong "bull market" feeling among investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The index surpassing 4000 points is attributed to multiple positive factors including policy support, economic fundamentals, and a more favorable external environment [1] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but the overall market is still in a "slow bull" phase with numerous investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Future investment strategies will focus on identifying high-quality stocks with core competitiveness and improved industry outlooks that are not yet fully priced in [1] - Key sectors of interest include technology subfields such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as high-end manufacturing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and discretionary consumption [1]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Zhongou Pension Mixed A (001955) reported a profit of 42.22 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0556 yuan [3] - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 2.06%, and as of the end of Q2, the fund size was 1.866 billion yuan [3] - The fund manager, Xu Wenxing, oversees five funds, all of which have shown positive returns over the past year [3] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 2.886 yuan [3] - The fund's performance over various time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 1.01%, ranking 131 out of 132 comparable funds [4] - 6-month net value growth rate: 10.22%, ranking 66 out of 132 [4] - 1-year net value growth rate: 25.00%, ranking 39 out of 132 [4] - 3-year net value growth rate: 11.72%, ranking 21 out of 127 [4] Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.3113, ranking 27 out of 129 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 41.7%, ranking 38 out of 129 [11] - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2022, at 19.7% [11] Investment Strategy - The fund has maintained an average stock position of 87.23% over the past three years, compared to a peer average of 86.11% [14] - The fund reached a peak stock position of 93.13% at the end of 2023, with a low of 73.76% at the end of 2021 [14] Holdings Concentration - The fund has a high concentration in its top holdings, with the top ten stocks consistently exceeding 60% over the past two years [18] - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings include companies such as Gujia Home, Chenguang Stationery, and Songcheng Performance [18]

Group 1 - Hebei has expanded its "old for new" program to include four new categories of home appliances, such as microwaves and water purifiers, along with eight new small appliances like coffee machines and floor washers, encouraging merchants to implement promotional policies [1] - In 2023, Hebei's "old for new" program has utilized over 20 billion yuan in subsidies, achieving sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] - Jiangxi and Hainan are promoting seasonal sales for refrigerators and air conditioners, encouraging merchants to offer linked promotions and "old for new" services to benefit consumers [1] Group 2 - Guangdong is enhancing the market for new energy vehicles and automotive products through a combination of government and enterprise subsidies [1] - Qinghai has increased the number of categories eligible for agricultural machinery scrapping subsidies from 14 to 25, focusing on improving subsidy standards for scrapping hand tractors and updating seeders and combine harvesters [1] - In 2023, Qinghai has provided subsidies for over 2,600 new agricultural machines, with a year-on-year increase of 30% in purchase quantity [1] Group 3 - Various regions are intensifying the implementation of "two new" policies to optimize processes and enhance services, stimulating market vitality and releasing consumer potential [2] - The optional consumption ETF closely tracks the CSI All-Share Consumer Index, with top five constituent stocks including Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with automotive and home appliances accounting for over 78% [2] - As the national economy continues to improve, consumer disposable income is rising, leading to a shift in spending from food and clothing to transportation, healthcare, and consumer electronics, highlighting the investment value of the optional consumption sector [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound on May 20, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the North Stock 50 reaching a historical high, driven by strong performance in the consumer sector, particularly in discretionary consumption [1] - The subsidy scale for the old-for-new replacement policy will double to 300 billion yuan by 2025, expanding the covered categories from 8 to 12, including new additions like microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, as well as including 3C digital products for the first time [1] - During the May Day holiday, home appliance replacement sales exceeded 55 million units, with air conditioners and robotic vacuum cleaners performing particularly well, indicating a robust demand despite a slight slowdown in growth compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - The discretionary consumption ETF (562580) closely tracks the CSI All-Share Discretionary Consumption Index, with the top five constituent stocks including leading consumer companies such as Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with automotive and home appliances accounting for over 78% of the index [2] - As the national economy continues to improve, the disposable income of consumers in China is rising, leading to a shift in consumption spending from food and clothing to transportation, healthcare, and consumer electronics, highlighting the investment value of the discretionary consumption sector [2]