Key Takeaways ZTO's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised lower, signaling weak broker confidence.ZTO cut its 2025 parcel volume forecast to 38.8-40.1 billion from the prior 40.8-42.2 billion.ZTO shares have lost 18.7% over the past year, underperforming the broader trucking industry.Shares of ZTO Express (ZTO)  have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this company have plunged 18.7% in the same period, underperforming the transportation-services industry’s14.5% decline.ZTO Stock's One-Year ...

记者丨 费心懿 实习生余名伟 编辑丨包芳鸣 9月22日，极兔、中通、圆通等五家头部快递企业同步上调上海地区收件价格，涨幅为0.2元/单—0.4元/单。 这并非个例，作为快递"产粮区"（业务量大、以发件为主的区域），浙江义乌、广东此前已有所行动，两地快递电商件实行了涨 价。这意味着，由政策与成本驱动的涨价潮，正自电商核心区向更广范围蔓延。这有望遏制困扰行业许久的低价竞争，但涨价态势 能否稳固，最终仍取决于服务质量能否让消费者满意。 21世纪经济报道记者随机走访了多个上海的加盟制快递站点， 快递员均反馈已接到涨价通知，但涨价幅度和时间尚未公布，并且不 影响个人寄件价格。 记者了解到，本轮调价主要针对电商件中低于成本价的低价订单（如1元以下单件），个人散件寄递价格不受 影响。 | | 累计完成 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | | 快递业务量 | 1282亿件 | 17.80% | | 快递业务收入 | 9583.7亿元 | - 9.20% | | 同城快递业务量 | 105.8亿件 | - - - 3 5.60% | | 异地快递业务量 - | 1149.2亿件 | 19.10% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in the express delivery industry, driven by policy and cost pressures, are spreading from core e-commerce areas to a broader range, aiming to curb long-standing low-price competition while the sustainability of these price hikes depends on service quality satisfaction among consumers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major express companies in Shanghai have raised collection prices by 0.2 to 0.4 yuan per order, with similar actions observed in Zhejiang and Guangdong [1]. - The price adjustments primarily target low-priced orders below cost, while personal parcel prices remain unaffected [1][2]. - The price floor management in various regions has effectively curbed vicious low-price competition, leading to a stabilization in single-order revenue [2]. Group 2: Financial Impact on Companies - The price increase is expected to enhance station profitability and courier income, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.5 million yuan in monthly revenue for some stations if single-order income rises by 0.1 yuan [3]. - The express delivery industry has seen a record volume of 1,282 billion packages in the first eight months of the year, with a revenue of 9,583.7 billion yuan, marking a 17.8% and 9.2% year-on-year growth respectively [3]. Group 3: Cost Pressures and Competitive Landscape - The industry faces rising costs, including increased wages for couriers and higher transportation and packaging expenses, leading to some franchisees operating at a loss [4]. - The average price for express services has decreased by nearly 8% year-on-year, with major companies experiencing declines in single-order revenue [4]. Group 4: Regional Variations and Strategic Shifts - Price increases have been more pronounced in e-commerce core regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang, while non-core areas maintain previous pricing strategies [5]. - The ability of franchisees to set prices independently has led to some circumventing the price hikes, indicating a need for balance between headquarters policies and franchisee interests [6]. Group 5: Broader Implications of Price Changes - The rise in express fees has led to the cancellation of freight insurance, particularly affecting high-return sectors like clothing, which may impact sales conversion rates [6]. - The cancellation of freight insurance could also reduce the volume of reverse logistics, which has been a significant revenue source for express stations [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Challenges - Experts suggest that while price increases may improve profit margins, the effectiveness in curbing low-price competition remains uncertain, as consumer price sensitivity could affect order volumes [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major express delivery companies in China have collectively raised prices in various regions, indicating a shift away from low-price competition and a move towards stabilizing the industry after years of price wars [1][2][5] Price Adjustments - Five major express companies, including Jitu, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda, announced price increases in Shanghai, with a rise of 0.2 to 0.4 yuan per package [1] - Since August, multiple regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu have also implemented price hikes, with Guangdong raising the minimum price by 0.4 yuan and Zhejiang adjusting prices by 0.2 to 0.5 yuan [2][3] Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been struggling with low-price competition, leading to a consensus among major players to stop price wars since 2021 [1][5] - A report from招商证券 indicates that from January to May 2025, the national express business volume is expected to grow by 20.1% to 788 billion packages, but the average price per package is projected to drop by 8.2% to 7.5 yuan, highlighting the "volume increase, price drop" trend [1] Regulatory Influence - The State Post Bureau has been actively opposing "involution" in the industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition and the elimination of low-price chaos [5][6] - Following a meeting on July 29, express companies were encouraged to adopt unified pricing strategies to mitigate low-price competition [2][3] Early Signs of Recovery - The "anti-involution" measures have shown initial success, with several A-share express companies reporting an increase in average revenue per package in August [5][6] - For instance, Shentong's average revenue per package rose to 2.06 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 4.6% [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that there is potential for further price increases in the Zhejiang region before the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with expected hikes of 0.15 to 0.2 yuan per package [4] - The overall trend suggests that the price recovery in the express delivery sector may continue, supported by seasonal demand and operational optimizations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to service value, with multiple companies announcing price increases in various regions since mid-September [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Major express companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Jitu have announced price increases starting September 22 in Shanghai, following similar announcements in Liaoning and other regions [2][3]. - The overall price increase ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 yuan per order, with some areas setting minimum prices for deliveries [2]. - This price adjustment follows earlier increases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, where the minimum price was raised by 0.4 yuan, and further increases are expected before the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2][3]. Industry Trends - Over 10 regions have initiated "anti-involution" actions, indicating a trend from core e-commerce areas to central and northeastern regions [3]. - The National Postal Administration reported that in the first half of 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 956.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, while revenue reached 718.78 billion yuan, up 10.1% [3]. Market Stability - Despite the price increases, the overall volume of deliveries remains stable, with companies reporting improved revenues [4]. - The express delivery market is expected to see a gradual implementation of price increases based on local conditions, with minimal impact on clients [4]. Service Value Enhancement - Companies are focusing on enhancing service quality and employee welfare to shift the competitive focus from price to value [5][6]. - The industry is encouraged to move away from a reliance on low prices and adopt a more balanced approach to competition, supported by regulatory frameworks [5][6].

Market Updates - UBTECH (09880) rose over 4% after signing a global strategic cooperation agreement with Cloud Intelligence Technology on September 21, with initial orders expected to be fulfilled [1] - Changfei Fiber Optics (06869) fell over 2% as shareholders reduced their holdings by a total of 10% in H-shares, with no significant impact on financial data from the hollow-core fiber [1] - Gold stocks mostly increased, with Lingbao Gold (03330) up over 4%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) up over 3%, China Silver Group (00815) up over 4%, and Shandong Gold (01787) up over 3%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to support a fluctuating upward trend in gold prices [1] - Yihuatong (02402) surged over 18% after partnering with Toyota to establish a fuel cell company and announcing the termination of the acquisition of Xuyang Hydrogen Energy [1] - WuXi AppTec (02268) increased over 6% after finalizing a subscription agreement that will raise WuXi Biologics' stake to over 50% [1] - Hong Kong Broadband (01310) dropped over 3% after announcing a share placement by its controlling shareholder, China Mobile Hong Kong, to restore public shareholding [1] - Huiju Technology (01729) rose over 10% following a strategic cooperation agreement with OpenAI to develop a revolutionary AI device for consumers [1] Shipping Sector - Shipping stocks experienced significant declines, with China Merchants Energy (01138) down over 6%, Seaspan (01308) down over 5%, Orient Overseas International (00316) down over 4%, and China Merchants Industry Holdings (01919) down over 4%. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported weak demand for Chinese export container transport, leading to continued adjustments in ocean freight rates [2] US Market Highlights - Pony.ai (PONY.US) increased by 18.55% as the CFO announced expectations to achieve key profit targets by early 2026 [3] - FedEx (FDX.US) rose 2.32% with projected revenue growth of up to 6% this year, exceeding analyst forecasts [3] - JD.com (JD.US) saw a 0.86% increase, with the iPhone 17 series achieving record sales within the first minute of pre-sale [3] - XPeng Motors (XPEV.US) rose 1.74%, reporting a 137% year-on-year increase in overseas deliveries from January to August [3] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) fell 0.96%, with analysts noting a significant rebound in express delivery prices in August [3] - WeRide (WRD.US) surged 10.23% after its autonomous bus Robobus received Belgium's first federal-level L4 autonomous driving test license [3] - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 2.21% as Baird upgraded its rating to "outperform," with expectations for significant stock price increases [4] - Apple (AAPL.US) increased by 3.20% following the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series on September 19 [4] - Quantum Song (QSG.US) rose 13.22%, with the chairman announcing a focus on the trendy toy sector [4]

Core Insights - The Erdos Airport Logistics Distribution Center is a key component of the Erdos Airport Logistics Park, focusing on building a green, low-carbon, and intelligent logistics system supported by digital supply chain platforms [1][3] Group 1: Infrastructure and Investment - The logistics center covers a total area of 104,000 square meters with an investment of 790 million yuan, featuring eight standardized warehouses and supporting facilities [1] - The center incorporates green technologies, including a rooftop CdTe photovoltaic system with a total capacity of 1.36 MW, and utilizes graphene electric heating and pure electric delivery vehicles [1] Group 2: Logistics Strategy and Operations - The logistics park aims to enhance logistics efficiency by integrating dispersed logistics resources and attracting enterprises in five core sectors: new energy equipment logistics, mining spare parts logistics, complete vehicle logistics, express logistics, and cold chain logistics [2][4] - The logistics hub is designed to facilitate a "gathering first, then distributing" model to achieve economies of scale [2] Group 3: Regional Connectivity and Economic Impact - The logistics park is strategically located at the intersection of major transportation networks, enhancing its role as a logistics hub connecting various regions, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta [2][3] - The park is positioned as a "gateway node" for Erdos to connect with international markets, contributing to regional economic growth and serving as a logistics hub for the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Development - The logistics park has successfully attracted leading companies in various sectors, including Envision Energy and Chery Automobile, enhancing its operational capabilities [4] - Future plans include accelerating the construction of a national-level airport logistics hub in the western region, driven by leading enterprises and technological innovation [4]

来源：证券日报 作者：王镜茹 7月8日，国家邮政局党组召开会议，要求按照"五统一、一开放"基本要求，进一步加强行业监管，完善 邮政快递领域市场制度规则，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，依法依规整治末端服务质量问题，为建设全 国统一大市场贡献行业力量。 目前来看，快递行业反"内卷"已初步显现成效。A股快递公司披露的8月份运营数据显示，多家企业单 票收入环比改善。具体来看，申通快递单票收入为2.06元，同比增长3%，环比上升4.6%；圆通速递单 票收入为2.15元，环比上涨3.4%，同比跌幅缩小；韵达股份单票收入为1.92元，环比微增0.01元。 单票价格回升的同时，企业也在通过优化运营、提升自动化水平等方式降低成本。有快递公司内部人士 表示，调价主要针对的是电商特价件、轻小件以及大客户的低价件，并不是所有电商快递件都涨，对个 人寄递没有影响。 添翼数字经济智库高级专家吴婉莹对《证券日报》记者表示："如何让涨价在末端真正落地，并在企业 盈利与市场承受力之间找到平衡，成为行业面临的重要考验。提价更多是一种权宜之策。从短期看，快 递公司需要通过优化服务或产品分层来证明涨价的合理性；从长期看，唯有依靠行业整合与竞争模式的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major express delivery companies in Shanghai, including Jitu, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda, announced plans to raise delivery prices starting September 22, although the specific increase amounts have not yet been disclosed [1]. Group 1: Price Increase Announcements - Multiple express companies in Shanghai have issued announcements regarding price hikes effective September 22 [1]. - Some customer service representatives from express companies indicated they have not yet received official notifications about the price increase [4]. - Certain employees from express companies confirmed they have received "price increase notifications," but details on the amount and timing remain unclear [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - A representative from Yunda stated that the price increase notifications were sent by local branches rather than the headquarters, which does not impose uniform price controls [6]. - An industry insider confirmed that there is an ongoing attempt to raise prices nationwide, with recent increases reported in Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Shandong, and Liaoning [6]. - The insider emphasized that a nationwide price increase is necessary to create a fair and orderly competitive environment, warning that significant price disparities could lead to opportunistic behaviors by resellers [6]. Group 3: Previous Price Adjustments - In August, several express companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang raised prices for e-commerce clients, with Guangdong being a key area for price adjustments [6]. - The price increase in Guangdong ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per item, with a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per order [6]. - The region is noted for contributing the highest volume of deliveries while maintaining very low prices, with previous rates as low as 0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery [6].

Group 1 - Global stock markets are attempting a rebound, with US markets expected to close the week steadily following the Federal Reserve's potential quick rate cuts, pushing markets to new highs [1] - Major US stock index futures showed slight increases, with the Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.11%, while the S&P 500 index reached a historical high [1] - European stock markets saw a modest rise, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index increasing by 0.3% to 556.72 points, driven by a 1.1% gain in interest-sensitive banking stocks [1] Group 2 - Asian stock markets declined, particularly after the Bank of Japan announced the sale of a large ETF holding while maintaining a policy interest rate of 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points since December last year has strengthened risk assets, with the probability of another 25 basis point cut in October rising to 89.8% [1] - Despite the upcoming $500 billion "triple witching" options expiration, US stocks are not expected to show significant volatility, with traders focusing on the next non-farm payroll report [1] Group 3 - Notable individual stock movements included FedEx rising over 5% pre-market due to better-than-expected Q1 earnings, and NIO increasing by 2% as it plans to launch a special edition ET9 [1] - Other companies like ZTO Express and XPeng Motors also saw pre-market gains, with ZTO up 1.4% and XPeng up over 1%, driven by positive delivery growth figures [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted risks from AI company earnings, while Bank of America noted continued upside potential for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks in the US market [1]