Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]

Core Insights - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the surge in delivery demands during the Spring Festival, significantly reducing delivery times and costs [1][4][6] Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Several logistics companies, including Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics, are accelerating the deployment of unmanned vehicles to assist in delivery operations, particularly during peak seasons like the Spring Festival [1][8] - Unmanned vehicles are expected to enhance delivery efficiency, with estimates indicating a reduction of over 3 hours in delivery times and a 50% decrease in transportation costs [4][7] Group 2: Increased Delivery Volume - The Spring Festival is seeing a notable increase in the volume of heavy packages and gift boxes, with some logistics points expecting daily package volumes to rise by approximately 1,000 compared to previous years [3][6] - The characteristics of this year's delivery peak include a more prolonged high volume period and a greater variety of package types, which places higher demands on logistics capabilities [3][6] Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - To manage the increased workload during the Spring Festival, logistics companies are employing strategies such as flexible scheduling and the use of unmanned vehicles for short-distance transport, which helps alleviate pressure on human resources [4][6] - Major logistics firms like SF Express and JD Logistics are implementing resource adjustment fees during the peak season to manage operational costs effectively [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The trend of utilizing unmanned vehicles is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating that over 1,000 unmanned vehicles will be deployed during the Spring Festival to support various sectors, including logistics, retail, and healthcare [10] - The overall operational efficiency of logistics companies is anticipated to improve, with JD Logistics reporting a 21% reduction in transportation costs since the introduction of unmanned vehicles [9]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the challenges posed by the upcoming Spring Festival, including the surge in heavy packages and rising operational costs, with companies like Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics leading the way in this transformation [1][6]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Unmanned vehicles are being deployed to assist delivery personnel, significantly reducing delivery times by over 3 hours and cutting transportation costs by 50% [1][6]. - Companies are scaling up the use of unmanned vehicles, with Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics expanding their applications in various scenarios, including industrial zones and campuses [7][8]. - JD Logistics has reported a 21% reduction in transportation costs and a 1-hour decrease in average delivery time since implementing unmanned vehicles [7]. Group 2: Increased Demand During Spring Festival - The Spring Festival is expected to see a notable increase in package volume, with some logistics points anticipating a rise of approximately 1,000 packages per day compared to previous years [2][3]. - The characteristics of this year's Spring Festival include a more prolonged peak period and a greater variety of larger packages, which places higher demands on logistics capabilities [2][4]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is seen as a solution to manage the increased workload during this busy season, allowing for more efficient operations [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Logistics companies are adjusting their operational strategies to manage increased costs during the Spring Festival, including hiring temporary workers and implementing resource adjustment fees for heavier packages [4][6]. - The use of unmanned vehicles is expected to alleviate some of the financial pressures by reducing the need for dedicated drivers and vehicles for short-haul tasks [5][6]. - Unmanned vehicles are projected to save approximately 0.1 yuan per package in transportation costs, contributing to overall cost efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. - ZTO currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable position in momentum investing [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Price Performance - ZTO shares have increased by 2.86% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Transportation - Services industry, which rose by 0.32% [5] - Over the last quarter, ZTO shares have risen by 17.67%, and by 19.62% over the past year, compared to the S&P 500's increases of 2.42% and 14.97%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for ZTO is 1,558,876 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, three earnings estimates for ZTO have been revised upwards, with the consensus estimate increasing from $1.60 to $1.64 [9] - For the next fiscal year, three estimates have also moved higher, with no downward revisions noted [9] Conclusion - Given the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is positioned as a solid momentum pick with a Momentum Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [11]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the challenges posed by the upcoming Spring Festival, including the surge in heavy packages and rising operational costs, with companies like Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics leading the way in this transformation [1][8]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Unmanned vehicles are being deployed to assist delivery personnel, significantly reducing delivery times by over 3 hours and cutting transportation costs by 50% [1][5][7]. - Companies are scaling up the use of unmanned vehicles, with Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics integrating them into their operations for short-distance transportation tasks [8][9]. - JD Logistics has reported a 21% reduction in transportation costs and a 1-hour decrease in average delivery time since implementing unmanned vehicles [8]. Group 2: Increased Demand During Spring Festival - The Spring Festival is expected to see a notable increase in package volume, with some logistics points anticipating a rise of approximately 1,000 packages per day compared to previous years [3][4]. - The characteristics of this year's Spring Festival include a more prolonged peak period and a greater variety of larger packages, which places higher demands on logistics capabilities [3][4]. - E-commerce platforms are ramping up promotions leading into the Spring Festival, further intensifying the pressure on logistics networks to manage increased volumes effectively [3]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Logistics companies are implementing flexible scheduling and human-vehicle collaboration strategies to manage the increased workload during the Spring Festival [4][6]. - Temporary hiring of drivers and workers is common during peak periods to handle the surge in package volume, leading to increased operational costs [6]. - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are introducing resource adjustment fees during the Spring Festival to manage the heightened demand and associated costs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is increasingly adopting unmanned vehicles to address the challenges posed by the surge in delivery volumes during the Spring Festival, significantly reducing delivery times and transportation costs [1][8]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - Several logistics companies, including Jitu, Zhongtong, and JD Logistics, are accelerating the large-scale application of unmanned vehicles to assist in delivery operations during the Spring Festival [1][9]. - Unmanned vehicles are expected to reduce delivery times by over 3 hours and cut transportation costs by 50% [1][8]. - JD Logistics has deployed unmanned vehicles in cities like Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Guangzhou, achieving a 21% reduction in transportation costs and a 1-hour decrease in average delivery time for couriers [9]. Group 2: Increased Delivery Volume and Challenges - The average daily package volume at logistics points is expected to increase significantly during the Spring Festival, with some points anticipating an additional 1,000 packages per day compared to previous years [3][4]. - The characteristics of this year's delivery surge include a more prolonged peak period and a greater variety of larger packages, which increases the pressure on logistics points [3][4]. - To manage the increased workload, logistics points are employing strategies such as "human-vehicle collaboration" and flexible scheduling, utilizing unmanned vehicles for short-distance transport tasks [4][6]. Group 3: Cost Management and Adjustments - During the Spring Festival, logistics companies often hire temporary workers to cope with the increased volume, leading to higher operational costs as many businesses shut down for the holiday [6][7]. - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are implementing resource adjustment fees for heavy packages during the peak season to manage costs [7]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is helping to alleviate some of the operational pressures by reducing the need for dedicated drivers and allowing couriers to focus on service quality [8][9]. Group 4: Market Demand for Unmanned Vehicles - The demand for unmanned vehicles in the logistics sector is strong, with companies like New Stone Technology deploying over 16,000 unmanned vehicles, a significant increase from the previous year [10][11]. - Unmanned vehicles are being utilized not only for package delivery but also in various sectors such as retail and healthcare, indicating a broadening application of this technology [11].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [2]. - The recent upgrade reflects a 6.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZTO Express over the past three months, with expected earnings of $1.64 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, unchanged from the previous year [9]. Impact on Stock Prices - Changes in earnings estimates are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, as institutional investors adjust their valuations based on these estimates, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [5]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 positions ZTO Express in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock prices in the near term due to improved earnings outlook [11]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a proven track record of Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - The system maintains a balanced distribution of ratings, ensuring that only the top 5% of stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Robovan sector, particularly emphasizing the potential of L4 RoboX technology in 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The 2026 smart technology landscape differs from previous years, focusing more on AI logic and software opportunities rather than hardware and consumer sales [3]. - Key catalysts for Robovan's growth include model iterations, increased RoboX deployments, and supportive policy developments [3]. - The report highlights the successful penetration of Robovan in the express delivery sector, with expectations for expansion into fast-moving consumer goods, durable goods, and chain restaurant applications [3]. - Investment recommendations suggest a strong focus on L4 RoboX as a primary investment theme for 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report draws parallels between the current AI-driven transformation in transportation and the previous 4G mobile internet wave, noting that AI will enhance hardware capabilities and replace existing transportation methods [4][12]. - The report identifies Robovan as a key player in urban logistics, with significant potential for replacing traditional delivery vehicles [4][12]. Robovan Market Dynamics - Robovan's successful deployment in express delivery has led to approximately 27,000 units delivered in the first 11 months of 2025, primarily in the express sector [3]. - The report outlines the expected growth of Robovan in various logistics scenarios, including fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods delivery [3][46]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the technological advancements in Robovan, including hardware and algorithm improvements that reduce costs and enhance operational efficiency [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of a robust supply chain and the integration of AI technologies to facilitate Robovan's commercial viability [23][24]. Policy Support - The report highlights ongoing government support for Robovan technology, with numerous policies aimed at facilitating the deployment and commercialization of autonomous delivery vehicles [12][19]. - It notes that over 250 cities have opened public road rights for Robovan, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for growth [20]. Market Potential - The urban delivery market is projected to reach 1.4292 trillion yuan in 2022, with Robovan expected to capture a significant share due to its efficiency in the supply chain [56]. - The report identifies that 64% of the urban delivery market consists of scenarios suitable for Robovan, indicating substantial growth opportunities [56].

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express is a leading and rapidly growing express delivery company in China, emphasizing service quality and balanced development strategies for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, Zhongtong Express achieved a total business volume of 38.52 billion packages, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, maintaining the industry's largest scale for ten consecutive years [1] - The company's reverse logistics business doubled, gaining more trust from platform customers and consumers [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is transitioning from high quantity to high quality development, and from single express services to comprehensive logistics solutions [2] - The company aims to be a "clear-sighted, leading, and practical" player in the industry, focusing on practical achievements and avoiding internal competition [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus for 2026 - The 2026 work plan emphasizes the integration of quality and development, with key themes including safety, service enhancement, optimization, efficiency improvement, fairness, team cohesion, execution strength, and potential exploration [1]