Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express's business volume growth rate has slowed down in Q3 2025, but profitability has improved due to anti-involution measures. Cost efficiency continues to rise, although future cost reduction potential may narrow. The company's market share has slightly declined, but its leading position remains stable [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Total business volume reached 9.57 billion parcels, up 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 and is slightly behind peers [2]. - Net profit and adjusted net profit for Q3 were 2.54 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 5%. The improvement in profit growth is attributed to the recovery of industry price levels and optimization of the company's business structure [2]. - The company has revised its annual business volume guidance down to 38.2-38.7 billion parcels from the previous 38.8-40.1 billion parcels, anticipating stable growth of around 8% in Q4 [2]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency - In Q3 2025, the cost per parcel was 0.91 yuan, an increase of 0.09 yuan year-on-year. The transportation cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% to 0.34 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [3]. - Sorting costs per parcel fell by 1.9% to 0.25 yuan, primarily due to the benefits from automation equipment investments. Although the growth rate of business volume is slowing, the company is expected to maintain a downward trend in transportation and sorting costs, albeit at a reduced rate [3]. Group 3: Market Position - ZTO Express's market share in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline of 0.64 and 0.13 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Despite this, the company retains its leading position in the industry [3]. - The ongoing anti-involution regulations are expected to shift industry competition from quantity expansion to quality improvement, favoring leading express companies with high-quality services and mature product systems [3].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.39% at 47,474.46 points, the S&P 500 up 0.25% at 6,829.37 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.59% at 23,413.67 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Apple increasing over 1%, Facebook nearly 1%, Nvidia up 0.86%, Microsoft up 0.67%, Google up 0.29%, and Amazon up 0.223%, while Tesla fell 0.21% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Atour up over 5% and Tiger Brokers up over 2%. Xpeng Motors dropped over 7%, iQIYI fell over 3%, and NIO, Global Data, and Bilibili fell over 2%. Alibaba, NetEase, and ZTO Express dropped over 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.49% at 23,705.8 points, France's CAC40 down 0.28% at 8,074.61 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01% at 9,701.8 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.84% at $4,238.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.01% at $59.15 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.23% to $58.59 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract dropped 1.28% to $62.36 per barrel [1] - London base metals all declined, with LME zinc down 1.32% at $3,055.50 per ton, LME nickel down 1.26% at $14,740.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.02% at $2,863.50 per ton, LME copper down 0.95% at $11,145.00 per ton, LME tin down 0.76% at $38,840.00 per ton, and LME lead down 0.42% at $1,993.50 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 1.62 basis points at 3.508%, the 3-year yield down 1.13 basis points at 3.528%, the 5-year yield down 0.34 basis points at 3.657%, the 10-year yield up 0.19 basis points at 4.088%, and the 30-year yield up 0.99 basis points at 4.747% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 4.468%, France's 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points at 3.489%, Germany's 10-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 2.747%, Italy's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 3.462%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 3.221% [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the volume expected to exceed 1.2 billion packages in 2023, 1.5 billion in 2024, and 1.8 billion in 2025, indicating a robust upward trend in logistics demand [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The introduction of unmanned delivery models is revolutionizing logistics, as seen with the 1.8 billionth package being delivered using this method [2] - Automation in warehouses and sorting centers is enhancing efficiency, with AI systems significantly improving sorting accuracy and speed [3][5] - The integration of new technologies in logistics, such as automated sorting centers and unmanned vehicles, is creating a world-leading intelligent logistics network [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector is supporting a 6.3% growth in online retail sales of physical goods, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones [6][7] - The expansion of logistics services into various consumer scenarios, such as high-speed rail stations and tourist attractions, is amplifying the scale effects within the industry [7] - The development of new logistics models, including factory logistics and international supply chains, is enhancing the integration of logistics with production and consumption [9] Group 3: Regional Development - The logistics system is improving in rural areas, with a notable increase in express delivery services, leading to a 21.5% growth in agricultural product shipments [10] - The expansion of delivery networks into western regions is facilitating smoother flow of goods, enhancing market access for local products [11] - The establishment of standardized distribution centers in the central and western regions is promoting balanced regional development, with some areas seeing over 30% growth in express delivery volume [12]

【深圳商报讯】（记者 肖晗）中通快递（HK02057/ZTO）日前公告称，旗下全资子公司中通航空将以 1.78亿元人民币收购浙江星联航空货运有限公司，此举旨在整合航空物流资源，提升集团综合竞争力。 中通方面表示，此次收购将提升集团的端到端境内外航空物流能力，并将增强集团在航空货运服务领域 的整体竞争力。鉴于浙江星联的稳定运营及业绩盈利，收购预期将增厚集团的业绩并提升对股东的回 报。 据中通快递公告，11月28日，中通航空与中通云冷及浙江星联签订股权转让协议，收购浙江星联100% 股权，共支付人民币1.78亿元。其中首付款为人民币1亿元，尾款为人民币7800万元，均在先决条件达 成后的10个和15个营业日内支付。 浙江星联成立于2018年，注册资本为人民币1.6亿元，主营航空货运服务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is intensifying its investment in air freight services through the acquisition of Zhejiang Xinglian, enhancing its logistics capabilities and overall competitiveness in the air freight sector [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - ZTO Express announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Zhejiang Xinglian for RMB 178 million, with the transaction expected to be completed by November 28, 2025 [1]. - Zhejiang Xinglian, established in 2018, primarily engages in air freight services, and has shown stable profitability with pre-tax net profits of RMB 6.213 million and RMB 6.655 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively [2]. - The acquisition is classified as a related party transaction, but it is exempt from independent shareholder approval due to its percentage being between 0.1% and 5% [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - ZTO Express reported revenues of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 38.42 billion, and RMB 44.28 billion for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.35%, 8.60%, and 15.26% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years was RMB 6.809 billion, RMB 8.749 billion, and RMB 8.817 billion, reflecting growth rates of 43.20%, 28.49%, and 0.78% [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 34.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, and a net profit of RMB 6.455 billion, growing by 0.33% [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The air freight market is experiencing significant growth, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China reporting a 22.1% year-on-year increase in cargo and mail transport volume, reaching 8.9816 million tons in 2024 [7]. - Other major players in the express delivery sector, such as SF Express, YTO Express, and JD Logistics, have also entered the air freight market, indicating a competitive landscape [5][6]. - The government has initiated policies to support the development of the air logistics sector, including the "14th Five-Year" plan for aviation logistics, which aims to create a high-quality and efficient air logistics system [6].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in crude oil freight rates, with the China Import Crude Oil Index (CTFI) reaching 2520.07 points, an increase of 8.4% from November 20 [3][13] - The postal industry revenue surpassed the telecommunications industry for the first time in history, reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, compared to 1.467 trillion yuan for telecommunications [3][24] - The civil aviation sector showed growth in both passenger and cargo transport volumes in October, with international routes performing particularly well [3][17] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are rising, with the Middle East route seeing a 10.76% increase in rates [13] - Qifly Aviation signed a procurement agreement for 105 eVTOL aircraft with three companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on low-altitude logistics [15][16] - The postal industry revenue for January to October 2025 reached 1.47 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [24][25] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flights in October 2025 increased by 0.32% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 11.12% [32] - The express delivery business volume in October 2025 increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan [50] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5]

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express - **Market Position**: Largest express parcel provider in China with approximately 20% market share as of 3Q25, most profitable among competitors including YTO, STO, Yunda, and J&T [19][22][39] Key Industry Insights - **Anti-involution Policy**: This policy is reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting focus from volume-driven growth to quality and profitability. It has led to a reduction in low-value parcels, benefiting ZTO as it captures market share [7][8][14][19] - **Volume Growth**: ZTO's volume growth outpaced the industry, with increases of approximately 12% and 9% year-over-year in October and November, respectively, compared to the sector's 7% and 4-5% [4][8][14][29] Financial Performance and Projections - **Price Target Increase**: DCF-based price targets raised to US$25.00/Rmb197.00 for US ADR/H share following a strong 3Q25 performance and positive updates from the JPM Fireside Chat [1][5][28] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth of 10.8% for FY25, with further growth expected in subsequent years [18][25] - **Margin Outlook**: Improved margin outlook anticipated, with expectations for margin expansion to accelerate in FY26 due to a healthier parcel mix and ongoing cost discipline [15][30] Strategic Focus - **Capital Management**: Emphasis on disciplined capital management, with lower capex expected as major infrastructure investments are completed. FY25 capex projected at Rmb5.5-6 billion [11][30] - **Shareholder Returns**: Commitment to dividends and buybacks, with a focus on sustainable growth and long-term value creation [9][11][30] - **Cost Optimization**: Ongoing investments in automation and digitalization to enhance cost efficiency and support scalable growth [11][30] Competitive Advantages - **Service Quality**: ZTO's superior service quality and efficient logistics infrastructure provide a competitive edge, particularly in e-commerce logistics and partnerships with platforms like Alibaba and Pinduoduo [10][11][19] - **Market Positioning**: ZTO is well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation, with a strategy that balances market share growth with profitability [6][19][39] Risks and Challenges - **Macroeconomic Environment**: Potential risks include a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment and rising oil prices, which could impact volume projections and operational costs [23][41] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: ZTO Express is positioned to capitalize on the current industry transformation driven by regulatory changes, with a strong focus on quality-driven growth and profitability. The company remains a top pick within the logistics space for the next 3-6 months [1][6][28]

北京商报讯（记者 何倩）11月29日，北京商报记者从中通获悉，中通航空近日与中通云冷及浙江星联 订立股权转让协议，中通航空同意购买，而中通云冷同意出售浙江星联100%股权，总代价为1.78亿 元。 资料显示，中通云冷成立于2020年，主营业务为提供航空货运代理及物流服务，并持有浙江星联100% 股权。收购完成后，中通集团将持有浙江星联100%股权。浙江星联将成为中通一家并表附属实体的子 公司，其财务业绩亦将并入集团的财务业绩。 中通认为，由于浙江星联的主营业务为航空货运服务，收购将提升本集团的端到端境内外航空物流能 力，并将增强本集团在航空货运服务领域的整体竞争力。 公告显示，2023年、2024年及2025年截至9月30日止9个月，浙江星联的税后净利润为653.9万元、657.1 万元、333.8万元。浙江星联成立于2018年，注册资本为1.6亿元，主营业务为航空货运服务，其于2025 年9月30日未经审计合并账目的总资产约为2.1亿元。 ...