Group 1 - Global stock markets are attempting a rebound, with US markets expected to close the week steadily following the Federal Reserve's potential quick rate cuts, pushing markets to new highs [1] - Major US stock index futures showed slight increases, with the Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.11%, while the S&P 500 index reached a historical high [1] - European stock markets saw a modest rise, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index increasing by 0.3% to 556.72 points, driven by a 1.1% gain in interest-sensitive banking stocks [1] Group 2 - Asian stock markets declined, particularly after the Bank of Japan announced the sale of a large ETF holding while maintaining a policy interest rate of 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points since December last year has strengthened risk assets, with the probability of another 25 basis point cut in October rising to 89.8% [1] - Despite the upcoming $500 billion "triple witching" options expiration, US stocks are not expected to show significant volatility, with traders focusing on the next non-farm payroll report [1] Group 3 - Notable individual stock movements included FedEx rising over 5% pre-market due to better-than-expected Q1 earnings, and NIO increasing by 2% as it plans to launch a special edition ET9 [1] - Other companies like ZTO Express and XPeng Motors also saw pre-market gains, with ZTO up 1.4% and XPeng up over 1%, driven by positive delivery growth figures [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted risks from AI company earnings, while Bank of America noted continued upside potential for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks in the US market [1]

| ZTO 中通快递 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 18 780 L-0.310 -1.62% | | 收盘价 09/18 15:59 美东 | | 19.040 + 0.260 +1.38% | | 盘前价 09/19 04:26 美东 | | 三 7 24 华 S 9 日 ♥ 白 ♥ 白 ♥ 白 ♥ 白 ♥ 白 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 19.010 | 开盘价 18.990 | 成交量 155.19万 | | 最低价 18.610 | 昨收价 19.090 | 成交额 2908.33万 | | 平均价 18.740 | 市盈率 III 12.59 | 总市值 150.19亿 … | | 振 幅 2.10% | 市盈率(静) 12.48 | 总股本 8亿 | | 换手率 0.38% | 市净率 1.663 | 流通值 76.96亿 | | 52周最高 26.960 | 委 比 20.00% | 流通股 4.1亿 | | 52周最低 16.019 | 量 比 1.20 | 每 手 1股 | | 历史最高 35.363 | 股息TTM 0.698 | 换股比率 1.00 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Service Industry Enterprises Top 500" report indicates that the total operating revenue of the listed companies reached 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan for the first time, at 1.0222 billion yuan [1] - Zhongtong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. (Zhongtong Express) was included in the top 500 list, marking a significant achievement for the company [1] Group 2 - Zhongtong Express officially commenced operations on August 26, 2016, and relocated its headquarters to Tonglu in August 2022, becoming the first company among the "Three Links and One Reach" to return its headquarters to Tonglu [3] - The company currently operates over 27,000 service outlets and has more than 5,000 direct network partners, achieving over 97% coverage in counties, with daily shipping volumes exceeding 54,000 tons and daily parcel volumes surpassing 2.2 million [3] Group 3 - Since its establishment, Zhongtong Express has continuously improved its service capabilities and product systems, enhancing its digital service capabilities and overall competitiveness [5] - The company has expanded its business scope to include full truckload, supply chain, cross-border, air transport, and warehousing logistics, providing comprehensive one-stop logistics services tailored to both enterprise and individual customers [5] Group 4 - Under the guidance of China's postal express industry "two in and one out" policy, Zhongtong Express actively serves manufacturing enterprises and integrates deeply into the rural revitalization strategy [6] - The company is expanding its international market presence, having launched services to Cambodia and Vietnam, and is focusing on the Southeast Asian market to develop overseas logistics solutions with international standards [6]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) shows a strong market position as a leader in the industry, maintaining stable profitability amidst price wars, with a strong recommendation from Dongxing Securities [1] Company Summary - ZTO Express's stock rose over 2.5% to $19.57, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Dongxing Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for ZTO Express, highlighting its robust safety margin [1] - The company is expected to adjust its business volume guidance, shifting its strategic focus towards quality over quantity [1] Industry Summary - The report anticipates an improvement in industry and company profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The environment is shifting towards reducing internal competition, which may lead to a more rational flow of incentives [1] - Although the growth rate of business volume is expected to decline, the profitability per package is projected to rebound [1]

Economic Overview - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates stable growth in major production and demand indicators for the first eight months, with industrial added value, service production index, retail sales of consumer goods, and import-export growth rates remaining consistent with the previous months [2] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August compared to the previous month [2] - The logistics industry maintained expansion in August, with improved circulation of production factors and a positive change in production prices, as indicated by a stable PPI [2] Company Insights - Dongfang Jiasheng has established a deep supply chain collaboration with a leading high-end ski brand, aiming to enhance the emotional value of skiing through integrated digital supply chain services [6] - Nova Star Cloud is exploring applications of artificial intelligence in the video image display control industry, indicating a focus on AI technology advancements [6] - China Mobile launched a dedicated large model for the logistics industry, aiming to empower industrial transformation and efficiency through AI solutions [6] - Meituan is providing comprehensive support for new restaurant businesses, including free online store decoration and AI operational tools, to facilitate their successful launch and operation [6] - Tianhua New Energy plans to acquire 75% of Suzhou Tianhua Times New Energy Industry Investment Co., enhancing its long-term development strategy in overseas lithium resource investment [6] Industry Analysis - Zhongtong Express reported a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but faced a slight decline in market share due to intense price competition [7] - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a more conservative outlook amid a changing economic and competitive landscape [8] - The average revenue per package decreased slightly, influenced by increased incentives and a shift towards lower-priced services, while the company managed to offset some losses through higher-value customer segments [8][9] - The company’s single-package gross profit margin decreased significantly due to heightened competitive pressures, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year as the market stabilizes [9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X, indicating a stable profitability outlook [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have reached a new high since March 2023, driven by limited supply and OPEC's production increase, indicating a tight oil tanker supply-demand situation [6][20]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a nationwide price increase trend, with a significant recovery in profitability expected in Q4 2025 [7][39]. Summary by Sections Oil Tankers - VLCC freight rates have surged, with a notable increase of 39.3% to 78k USD/day, reflecting a tight supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries and stringent sanctions [9][20]. - The correlation between VLCC freight rates and annual profits of Zhongyuan Shipping indicates potential for price recovery in the sector [6][36]. - OPEC's production policy shift has led to increased exports, further supporting oil transportation demand [28][32]. Express Delivery - The regulatory stance against "involution" in the express delivery sector has strengthened, leading to a nationwide price increase that began as regional trials [51][52]. - The average price across the country has risen by 0.23 RMB since July, with potential net profit increases for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda expected in Q4 2025 [7][53]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability for major express delivery companies, with projected net profit increases of 7.8 billion RMB for Zhongtong and 5.3 billion RMB for Yunda by Q4 2025 [7][56]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger transport volume has shown improvement, with a 8% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 14% increase in international passenger volume [61]. - The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 3.2 percentage points, while international load factors have increased by 4.0 percentage points [67]. - Despite a slight decline in ticket prices, the overall market is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue as demand continues to recover [67][75].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in market share and adjusted its business volume guidance for 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amidst a competitive environment [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [1] - The company's business volume growth rate was slightly below the industry average of 17.3%, leading to a downward adjustment of the annual business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion items, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 14%-18% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Structure - The average revenue per item decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incremental incentives and a reduction in average item weight [2] - The increase in revenue from key accounts (KA customers) helped offset some of the revenue decline, with a contribution of 0.17 yuan per item [2] - The core cost per item rose to 0.89 yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, with the core costs (transportation + sorting) showing a slight decrease [2][3] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The gross profit per item fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure on profitability due to high incremental incentives [3] - The company expects an improvement in profitability in the second half of the year as the competitive environment stabilizes and the focus shifts to quality [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 net profit of 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, with a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has adjusted its full-year business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous guidance of 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on quality over quantity in a competitive pricing environment, which has led to a decrease in market share by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company's single-ticket revenue decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incentives and a decline in average weight [2]. - The single-ticket core cost increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, while the core cost (transportation + sorting) decreased by 0.07 yuan [2][3]. - The single-ticket gross profit fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure from pricing competition [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level despite the ongoing price wars, indicating strong safety margins [4]. Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company that integrates express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, operating a highly scalable network partner model [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.778 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 89.595 billion HKD [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: Inbound Travel in China, specifically focusing on Beijing's tourism data post-COVID - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, with analysts involved in the research Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Drivers**: - Inbound visitation growth is driven by emerging markets, which are expected to remain the major growth driver [7] - Visa-free coverage expansion is a significant factor, with Europe recovering to above pre-COVID levels despite soft visitation from the UK, France, and Germany [7] 2. **Tourist Breakdown**: - In 2019, 76% of foreign visitors to China were from Asia, 13% from Europe, 8% from the Americas, 2% from Oceania, and 1% from Africa [10] - In 1H25, the breakdown of foreign tourists in Beijing showed a shift, with Asia accounting for 35%, Europe 31%, Americas 26%, Oceania 5%, and Africa 3% [13] 3. **Recovery Status**: - Different regions show varying recovery statuses compared to 2019: - **Fully Recovered**: Asia, Europe, Oceania, and Africa with growth rates over 30% YoY in 1H25 - **Strong Recovery**: Korea and Canada with growth rates over 40% YoY - **Sluggish Recovery**: USA, Japan, India, UK, France, and Germany with growth rates below 20% YoY [7] 4. **Visitor Trends**: - The acceleration of US visitation is noted as encouraging despite trade frictions and geopolitical tensions affecting overall inbound visitation [2] - Emerging markets are expected to continue driving growth, with specific countries like Vietnam, Mongolia, and Indonesia showing significant increases in tourist numbers [19] 5. **Statistical Adjustments**: - Beijing's post-COVID tourist statistics are not fully comparable with pre-COVID levels due to the inclusion of same-day travelers and the exclusion of certain visitor categories [7] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Impact**: Trade frictions and geopolitical tensions have negatively impacted inbound visitation, but the recovery of US visitation is a positive sign [2] - **Data Limitations**: The analysis relies on Beijing's data due to the lack of national-level international visitor breakdown post-COVID, which may limit the comprehensiveness of the insights [1] - **Future Outlook**: The trends observed suggest a potential for continued growth in inbound tourism, particularly from emerging markets and regions with expanding visa-free access [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the inbound travel industry in China, particularly focusing on the recovery trends and statistical insights from Beijing's tourism data.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reiterates that "anti-involution" will be the thematic trade for the Chinese market over the next 18 to 24 months, with a broader scope than the previous supply-side reform [1] Group 1: Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policy closely resembles the 2021 regulatory approach aimed at preventing disorderly capital expansion, but it has a wider range, focusing on streamlining local government endorsements and investment subsidies [1] - Three industrial ecosystems are affected by this policy, with renewable energy stocks prioritized due to their superior revenue structure compared to real estate and macro stocks, and stronger policy enforcement compared to e-commerce stocks [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The "anti-involution" policy is crucial for the Chinese stock market, as higher ROI is a prerequisite for the institutionalization process and market expansion of onshore stocks, benefiting large industry leaders [1] - A list of preferred Chinese stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy includes Daqo New Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, CATL, Zhongsheng Holdings, Baosteel, SF Holding, GAC Group, PetroChina, and ZTO Express [1]